$BTC - Bitcoin Elliot Wave Analysis UpdateHello fellow gamblers,
Bitcoin hit my target zone and we could now see a retracement for Wave 4 or a bullish continuation into ATH.
I am also bringing a new update on Bitcoin and showing you all an alternative count that could take us way above our current targets.
- If we do have a Wave 4 retracement, I'm expecting price to find support at that 116.7k level.
- Levels to watch: 116.7k, 112k-110.4k
BTCUSD.PM trade ideas
Balla is still Bullish on BITCOIN. Cup & Handle pattern. The trend is still our friend.
I still see bullish developments in the price action.
We must have patience.
Dips still must be bought.
The plan hasn't changed.
We still aiming for that time period of 9 -15 months post #BTC Halving.
We are only one month down :)
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, Unrivaled in the Market!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. Bitcoin’s current upward momentum has the potential to reach the target of $130,000. If it corrects, Bitcoin buying opportunities can be sought from the specified demand zones.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand area.
In recent days, Bitcoin has managed to set a new historical high by crossing the $118,000 level; a jump that followed the strong accumulation of institutional capital, the upward trend of spot ETFs and the remarkable consolidation of such indices. This growth is not only the result of technical conditions or short-term market excitement, but is a clear reflection of the structural maturity of the Bitcoin ecosystem in the second half of 2025. A careful and comprehensive examination of the fundamental parameters shows that Bitcoin is moving differently than in the past: slower, but with much stronger support. On the other hand, more than $205 million in Bitcoin short selling positions have been liquidated following the jump in the price of Bitcoin and its crossing the $122,000 level.
First, the flow of investment from Bitcoin spot ETFs has broken records over the past week. In one day, more than $1.18 billion entered these funds, and the total annual inflow of these financial instruments has reached more than $51 billion. This is while ETFs such as IBIT (managed by BlackRock) and FBTC (managed by Fidelity) are attracting hundreds of Bitcoins daily, without causing any negative divergence in price indices. This phenomenon clearly shows that the participation of institutional investors through regulated channels is not only stable, but also accelerating. Along with this flow of capital, the parameters of the chain also paint a picture of a market with a balance of supply and demand. The MVRV ratio, an indicator for measuring market profitability, fluctuates between 2.2 and 2.34, meaning that the market is in a reasonably profitable state, but is still some way from the warning zone of profit saturation. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) are also continuing to accumulate. Long-term wallet holdings have reached a record high of 14.7 million BTC, representing nearly 70% of the total supply. In the last quarter alone, more than 13,000 BTC have been added to this group’s reserves.
On the other hand, the SOPR indicator, which measures realized profit ratio, shows that profit-taking is taking place at a gentle slope in the market, away from heavy selling pressure. This logical trend of profit-taking is a testament to mature investor behavior. Bitcoin flows to exchanges are also at very low levels; Bitcoin held on exchanges now account for just 1.25% of the total supply—the lowest level in over a decade. This significant reduction in potential selling pressure has kept Bitcoin’s price stable in the face of short-term volatility.
Behaviorally, the market is also showing signs of maturation. The number of daily active addresses has remained stable, but unlike during the buying frenzy, we are no longer seeing retail traders rushing into exchanges or mass wallet outflows. In other words, on-chain activity has stabilized, similar to the behavior of traditional mature markets—markets driven by data and structure, not emotion. From a macro perspective, the outlook for Bitcoin in the medium term is also positive. Many analysts and institutions, including Global X ETFs, see Bitcoin’s growth to $200,000 within the next 12 months as achievable. Technical analysis from some sources has also outlined the $140,000 range as the next price target in the next 100 days, provided that the VIX volatility index remains low and macroeconomic data maintains its current trajectory. However, a more conservative scenario sees a price consolidation in the $95,000-$100,000 range if geopolitical pressures increase or ETF inflows weaken.
Overall, Bitcoin is moving ahead in the summer of 2025 not only on the back of crypto market excitement, but also on the back of strong fundamentals and structured institutional capital inflows. Accumulation by long-term holders, a steady decline in supply on exchanges, a reasonable profit-taking balance, and a formal investment structure via ETFs have all combined to bring the market to a stable state and ready for further increases. If this trend holds, levels of $125,000-$140,000 in the short term, and a range of $180,000-$200,000 by the end of the year, are not far off!
On the other hand, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) managed to record the fastest growth in history among all ETFs, surpassing $80 billion in assets in just 374 days! For comparison, it should be noted that the S&P500 Index ETF needed about 5 times this time! BlackRock now holds about 706,000 Bitcoins (equivalent to 56% of the total ETF share).
BTC PRICE PROJECTION ANALYSIS. HOW MUCH FURTHER UPSIDE???In this video, I'm just excited to see the cup and handle analysis done on October 19th, 2024 reach it's target. It's amazing!
I decided to do some predictive analysis using Elliott wave concept and Fibonacci extensions to see how far Bitcoin will go.
I am convinced that on the timeframe analyzed, this is onto a wave 5 and so pullbacks are going to be a great opportunity to grab some while a lot people will think this is madness.
My cup and handle analysis and targets getting hit has taught me a great lesson to always look at the bigger picture while taking advantage of the micro view.
Cheer to all the longs and Bitcoin believers. With only 1.11 Million Bitcoin available for grabs and Institutional confidence behind the asset, I am confident the projected price targets are highly likely and in sight soon.
BTC: Next price Halving 📊Analysis by AhmadArz: #BTCUSD
By calculating the price growth in the 4-year halving time frame, we came to the conclusion that with the growth of the Bitcoin market cap, its growth will be halved and we can expect $120,000 from Bitcoin, and it is expected to grow up to 270,000 dollars in halvings.
🔗"Uncover new opportunities in the world of cryptocurrencies with AhmadArz.
💡Join us on TradingView and expand your investment knowledge with our five years of experience in financial markets."
🚀Please boost and💬 comment to share your thoughts with us!
Bitcoin May Continue Rising After Breakout📊 Market Overview:
• Bitcoin recently broke above $118,000, reaching a weekly high of $118,740, fueled by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and strong ETF inflows into the market
• Katie Stockton from Fairlead Strategies highlights a bullish cup-and-handle pattern, supporting a potential 14% upside toward $134,500
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $120,000 – $128,500 (based on Fibonacci projection).
• Nearest Support: ~$108,300 – previous resistance turned support, along with ~$107,000 near the 50-day EMA.
• EMA 09: Price is trading above the 9-day EMA, indicating a short-term bullish trend.
• Patterns & Volume:
o A cup-and-handle breakout suggests continued upside potential.
o Rising volume on breakouts reflects strong buying interest.
o MACD is bullish, and RSI is not yet overbought — allowing further room to rise.
📌 Outlook:
Bitcoin may continue to rise in the short term if it holds above the 9-day EMA and avoids a sharp drop below the $108k–110k support zone. A break below this area could trigger a deeper correction toward $100k.
Bitcoin Still in Up-Trend Channel, Bubble Still AheadAs of July 2025 Bitcoin trades near $120 000 and every weekly close since the November 2022 low has stayed inside the same rising log-channel. The channel’s upper rail is ≈ $170 000 today and should reach ≈ $230 000 by December. A decisive breakout requires a weekly close above that rail. In previous cycles the breakout came almost exactly at the prior all-time high, but this time the 2021 ATH of $69 000 was reclaimed while price was still inside the channel. The trigger is therefore less obvious; yet if price finally closes beyond the rail, a new exponential leg is expected to begin.
Two structural shifts explain the delay. First, the channel’s slope keeps flattening: early cycles rose about 0.6 % per day on a log scale, now it is roughly 0.15 %. Second, each order-of-magnitude move demands vastly more capital, so the supply squeeze after the April 2024 halving is taking longer to translate into price.
At past tops growth multiples fell from 36× (2013) to 16× (2017) to 3.5× (2021). Extending that trend points to roughly 1.5–2× from the future breakout price. If the breakout happens near $170 000–230 000 the projected new ATH lands around $250 000–360 000, a range that lines up with the red-orange band on the updated Bitcoin Rainbow Chart.
Historically peaks follow a breakout by 9–13 months and the halving by 16–20 months, placing the most probable time window in Q4 2025. Until the weekly candle settles above the channel roof Bitcoin remains in accumulation mode and the classic blow-off phase is still ahead.
Analysis through chart and Fibonacci.
BTC recently surged, reaching a local high at ~$118,839, showing a sharp upward movement.
Price is currently consolidating just below the recent high.
A horizontal support is marked at $110,695, aligning closely with the 0.236 level.
A larger support zone is marked around $105,902, the 0.618 Fib level — a crucial area for potential bounce.
BTCUSD Weekly Analysis : Testing $130K Resistance + Next Target📌 1. Big Picture – Bitcoin is in a Parabolic Uptrend
This chart clearly shows that Bitcoin has shifted from a consolidation phase into a full-blown parabolic rally. That’s not just random growth — it’s an aggressive, momentum-driven market move that usually only happens during major bull cycles.
The curve shown in black — labeled “Black Mind Curve Support” — is your guide here. It's not a simple trendline. It shows how Bitcoin is accelerating upward, and this curve acts as a dynamic support. Every time price dips to it, buyers jump in fast — which shows strong bullish pressure and market confidence.
🔍 2. Blue Ray Broken = Trend Change Confirmed
Earlier, BTC was stuck under the Blue Ray, a long-term resistance trendline. As marked:
“Blue Ray Always Continue Trend”
That means, as long as price stays under it, the market is bearish. But guess what?
BTC broke above it — strongly.
That break confirmed a reversal in long-term structure, and it triggered this massive upward move. This breakout also aligned with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, further confirming that bulls are now in full control.
🧠 3. Current Situation – Heading Into Mini Reversal Zone
Now BTC is trading around $117,820, and it's approaching the green box labeled Mini Reversal Zone — between $125,000 and $135,000.
Why is this area important?
It’s a psychological zone (big round numbers).
It lines up with historical resistance and previous supply zones.
It’s where smart money might take some profit, so we could see rejection or a short-term pullback here.
🎯 4. Two Scenarios to Watch
✅ Scenario A: Mini Pullback & Retest
BTC hits the Mini Reversal Zone → stalls → pulls back → retests the Black Mind Curve → bounces again.
That’s bullish and normal in a healthy uptrend. If you missed earlier entries, this pullback could be your golden opportunity.
🚀 Scenario B: Breakout of Reversal Zone
If Bitcoin breaks above $135K with strong momentum and closes the weekly candle high, we may see another parabolic rally toward $140K+.
This would mean even stronger buyer interest, possibly driven by FOMO, ETFs, or macro news.
📉 What Could Invalidate the Bullish Move?
Only if BTC:
Breaks below the Black Mind Curve, and
Starts closing weekly candles under $105K–$100K
That would mean the curve is broken, momentum is lost, and we might go into a consolidation or deeper correction.
But for now? No signs of weakness. Trend is strong, volume is rising, and price action is clean.
🧩 Summary of Key Levels
Type Level Notes
Curve Support Dynamic ($105K–$110K) Critical for trend continuation
Mini Reversal Zone $125K – $135K Watch for rejection or breakout
Bullish Target $140K+ If breakout holds above reversal zone
Trend Indicator Black Mind Curve As long as price rides this, bulls are in control
📌 Final Thoughts
This BTC chart isn’t just a random uptrend — it’s a well-structured parabola, powered by strong technical support and clean breakouts. Everything is lining up for a potential monster move, but don’t chase price blindly.
Watch the Mini Reversal Zone closely. If we see rejection, be ready to buy the dip. If we break through with volume — it’s 🚀 time again.
20 year long BTC analysisTaking into account the halvening and the recent bullish news of countries and big companies wanting to establish a BTC reserve. I think we can see some crazy cycles in the future.
These entities are most likely planning to hold for a minimum of 20 years. And countries won't be shy to print some extra dough for it. Some may see it as an opportunity to finally get rid of their national debt.
As long as fiat exists BTC will most likely keep going up. Its that simple.
USD WEAKNESS COULD TRIGGER COMMODITY/CRYPTO SURGEAlphaTrend is an advanced trading indicator that leverages proprietary tools, real-time data, and custom metrics to give traders a competitive edge. Designed for all experience levels, it works instantly—no advanced charting skills required.
ADVANCED and PRO versions are available. (See below)
🔍 How It Works
At the core of AlphaTrend is Dynamic Reversion Bands — a sophisticated real-time system that adapts to price action by automatically adjusting to evolving market conditions.
These bands act like a roadmap, helping traders identify:
Mean reversion trade opportunities
Trend strength
Emotion-driven market conditions (like FOMO)
The system is rooted in Mean Reversion Theory:
If an asset's price deviates significantly from its historical average, it tends to “revert” back to that average over time. Traders can use this behavior to spot potential buying or selling opportunities:
Overbought Conditions: If the price moves too far above the mean, it may signal a pullback—traders might sell or short.
Oversold Conditions: If the price drops well below the mean, it may be undervalued—traders might buy in anticipation of a bounce.
⚪🟡🔴🟡⚪ Dynamic DOTS
AlphaTrend visualizes market overextension through dynamic DOTS:
White DOTS = Average conditions
Yellow DOTS = Above average conditions
Red DOTS = Extreme conditions
The DOTS update in real time as the candle is forming—appearing, disappearing, and shifting color based on current intensity levels. Once the candle closes, however, the DOTS do not repaint. This ensures clarity and confidence in every signal.
This is crucial, as many indicators repaint and revise data after the fact, undermining traders’ trust. With AlphaTrend, once a candle closes, the data remains permanently fixed.
📊 Adaptability and Market Insight
AlphaTrend adapts to any timeframe, but performs best on longer-duration candles, where signals are fewer but more reliable. Multi-interval displays (e.g., 1hr, 4hr, Daily) are highly recommended. That being said it does tend to give strong signals on all time frames even down to 1 min candles.
The tool also integrates several intuitive market overlays:
Auto-generated support and resistance levels
Real-time supply and demand zones
Money flow tracking from institutions and banks
Btcusd techinical analysis.This chart displays the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1-hour candlestick chart on OKX, featuring a detailed technical analysis using harmonic patterns and chart structures.
Key Observations:
1. Harmonic Patterns:
Multiple harmonic/flag-like patterns are shown, both bullish and bearish.
These include retracements marked with Fibonacci ratios (e.g., 0.747 and 0.871), suggesting price reversal zones.
2. Support and Resistance:
Several horizontal purple lines indicate key support and resistance levels.
Strong support is visible around the 116,800 – 117,000 range.
Resistance appears near the 118,000 – 118,400 range.
3. Ascending Triangle Formation:
On the far right, an orange ascending triangle has formed, a typically bullish continuation pattern.
The blue arrow suggests a projected breakout to the upside, targeting around 118,400.
4. Bullish Reversal Indication:
A reversal (marked by a ⚡ icon) from the lower support zone around 117,000 seems to have initiated an upward move.
The zigzagging blue path shows a bullish scenario of higher highs and higher lows.
---
Summary:
The chart suggests bullish momentum building with a likely breakout from the ascending triangle pattern, targeting the 118,400 resistance level. Confirmation of the breakout would ideally come with strong volume and a close above 118,000.
Would you like a possible
Bitcoin price increaseAfter the tensions between traders in the United States and the strong price fluctuations in the dollar and other stocks, and after the 3-month increase in gold, this time it will be the turn of digital currencies to increase again and there are signs of their increase in the market. For Bitcoin, two increase targets can be considered: $110,000 - $120,000.
Sasha Charkhchian