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BTCUSD trade ideas

Elliot Wave Count Bitcoin - BTCElliot Wave count BTC. Last wave up could be 1st of 5th wave, but think it's a B wave, in expanded flat wave B can take on an impulsive structure and consist of five waves, allowing it to rise above the starting point of wave A. Supported by Elliot Wave count in Equity where probably wave 5 is also placed. And by latest lower high what could be start of market structure change. Invalidation above more or less 113-116k. Fib.time 0.66 gives turning point on July 6th in confluence with end of wedge. World is mega bullish with lot of fresh Longs (big-time in ETF's) waiting for overnight millions. Lets see how this count works out.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Helliot_Vermogensbeheer
BTCUSD bullish breakout consolidation support at 103,620Trend Overview: Bitcoin BTCUSD remains in a bullish trend, characterised by higher highs and higher lows. The recent intraday price action is forming a continuation consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential pause before a renewed move higher. Key Technical Levels: Support: 103,620 (primary pivot), followed by 101,770 and 100,140 Resistance: 109.830 (initial), then 113,960 and 117,390 Technical Outlook: A pullback to the 103,620 level, which aligns with the previous consolidation zone, could act as a platform for renewed buying interest. A confirmed bounce from this support may trigger a continuation toward the next resistance levels at 109,830, 113,960, and ultimately 117,390. Conversely, a daily close below 103,620 would suggest weakening bullish momentum. This scenario would shift the bias to bearish in the short term, potentially targeting 101,770 and 100.140 as downside levels. Conclusion: Bitcoin BTCUSD maintains a bullish structure while trading above the 103,620 support. A bounce from this level would validate the consolidation as a continuation pattern, with upside potential toward the 109,830 area. A breakdown below 103,620, however, would invalidate this view and suggest deeper corrective risk. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BTCUSD
by TradeNation
Bitcoin full analysis, what's going on?Bitcoin has been trading horizontally since May 8th, with occasional breakouts both upward and downward. This trend is largely attributed to two factors: institutional buying and miners selling. The low trading volume on exchanges, combined with a decrease in daily trades from its recent peak in February 2024, has led to increased volatility, although these fluctuations have been relatively small compared to past swings. In my opinion, the bull run began in October 2023, as evidenced by increasing volumes and a steady rise in prices. Unlike previous cycles, this market has priced in the halving in advance, leading to gains year-to-date from approximately 15800 USD to a new all-time high (ATH) of approx 112,000 USD. By any standards, this is an excellent return and shows that Bitcoin is performing well and should be held. However, it's worth noting that this bull run has lasted 590 days, which is longer than previous cycles that typically lasted less than 585 days, depending on how one defines the start and end. What is keeping Bitcoin from skyrocketing? The answer seems to be that the bears are currently in control, with major overhead resistance at 112k. Bitcoin has struggled to stay above 108k for any significant period. Additionally, the accumulation/distribution metrics are leveling off, daily trading volumes are decreasing, and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is high, indicating that profits are being taken. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of bearish divergence, and we are observing a flag pattern that appears to be forming a descending triangle following a double top. All these indicators suggest we may be nearing the end of this cycle. On a positive note, Bitcoin short positions are not particularly high, nor are long positions, indicating market uncertainty about the direction. Geopolitical tensions, a weak U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and tariff chaos could act as catalysts for price movement. The successful Circle IPO demonstrated that there is market appetite for crypto. Bitcoin has also built considerable support in the 95k-107k range, and the flag pattern suggests a potential rise to 115k in the next breakout. In my analysis, the bearish outlook feels stronger. Although there are positive signals for the upside, the return on investment this next upward move could only be 115k. As a result, I have stepped out of Bitcoin and into other assets that I deem more stable during this global period. I plan to re-enter Bitcoin when it reaches around 44k or lower (50-70% correction, depends on when and I will DCA), which would present a more attractive entry point. More importantly, if Bitcoin is maturing and behaving like gold or another stock, I will treat it as such. Legislation remains uncertain, and I have experienced being on the wrong side of crypto in too many cycles. When FOMO kicks in, it's often the right time to exit. As I look at the charts and say the phrase "moon BABY," I realize my spaceship is not yet ready. Safe trading, everyone! These are my thoughts on Bitcoin. Let me know if you agree or if you think I am completely off the mark. Not trading advice.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by Discombobulate1
BTCUSD LONGBTC has recently broken its last lower timeframe High, shifting market structure and indicating Buyers are currently in control. This break opened up a clear Demand Zone below, a small base or last bearish candle before the rise, which is a key area where unfulfilled buy orders may be resting. Entry: I’m looking to buy from this Demand Zone on the pullback, adding to go long when price enters this area. This lets me enter at a discount price while trading in direction of the newly established upward momentum. Target: The first Target Profit (TP) is set at the next supply Zone above, where selling pressure might emerge. Stop Loss: To control risk, the Stop Loss (SL) is placed just below the demand Zone. If price drops below this area, it would invalidate the demand’s ability to hold, signalling a potential reversal. ✅ Summary: • Market has shifted to bullish after breaking last high. • Demand Zone below is a key area to watch for buying opportunities. • Buy upon retracement into Demand, with Stop Loss below and Target at supply above.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AFOKE
1
Macromics Group: Market Trends Overview (June 2025)Global Economic Landscape: What Has Changed? June 2025 marks significant shifts in the global economy. After several years of instability caused by the pandemic, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, markets are gradually stabilizing. However, new challenges are emerging: rising risks in Asia, digital transformation in Europe, and strategy shifts in the U.S. China and India continue to show strong growth rates—5.8% and 6.5% respectively. Europe, by contrast, is lagging behind due to slow recovery and persistent inflation. The U.S. maintains a steady course driven by consumer spending and innovation, reporting 2.1% GDP growth. Macromics Group continues to deliver in-depth analytics and strategies for clients seeking to understand and capitalize on these changes. We analyze trends across more than 120 industries, helping companies adapt and thrive. Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: A Shift Toward Stabilization Financial regulators have begun cautiously lowering interest rates after the peaks of 2024. The U.S. Federal Reserve has dropped its rate to 4.5%, while the ECB has reduced its rate to 3.75%. This is made possible by a decline in inflation: 2.7% in the U.S. and 3.1% in the EU. Meanwhile, developing nations like Turkey and Argentina are still grappling with high inflation. These countries risk falling behind the global recovery unless decisive steps are taken. Overall, the global course is toward soft stabilization: interest rates remain high but steady. This creates favorable conditions for investment and long-term planning. Financial Markets: From Caution to Moderate Optimism Stock markets in June 2025 show mixed performance. U.S. indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, thanks to the booming tech sector. Stocks of companies involved in AI, quantum computing, and cybersecurity are particularly strong. European markets are less active but relatively stable. Growth is limited by high costs, demographic issues, and the transition to ESG standards. In Russia and CIS countries, markets are under pressure due to sanctions, currency restrictions, and reduced investment. On the currency front, the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan dominate. The ruble is volatile, the euro is stable, and the yen is strengthening as a safe haven asset. Technology: The Engine of New Markets The main trend in 2025 is AI and automation. Companies are deploying neural networks in logistics, marketing, finance, and HR to cut costs and boost efficiency. Demand for AI professionals and developers is surging. 5G infrastructure has matured in most developed countries, unlocking new potential in IoT, telemedicine, and remote work. At the same time, quantum computing is advancing rapidly, with commercial solutions expected by 2026. Macromics Group invests in next-generation analytical platforms, enabling clients to access real-time insights and forecast trends before they go mainstream. Energy and Sustainability: ESG and the “Green” Shift Energy markets have stabilized after the turbulence of 2024. Oil prices remain between $70–$85 per barrel—comfortable for both producers and consumers. Meanwhile, renewable energy—solar, wind, and hydrogen—is seeing record investment. Corporations are increasingly reporting according to ESG standards. It’s not just a trend, but a new business reality. Investors demand transparency, consumers prefer socially responsible brands, and regulators impose mandatory reporting. Macromics Group supports clients in transitioning to sustainable models by developing ESG strategies, assessing risks, and offering financial solutions. Conclusion: Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 The first half of 2025 showed that markets are learning to operate in a new reality. The global economy is no longer chasing rapid growth, but adapting to volatility. Key focus areas are technology, sustainability, and smart resource management. For businesses, this means quick adaptation, innovative thinking, and reliance on data-driven decisions. In this context, Macromics Group serves not just as an analyst but as a strategic partner. Our recommendation: act proactively. In times of uncertainty, those who plan years ahead and use quality data will win.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by HCN-News12
Automated Trading with Pine ScriptIn the digital age, trading is gradually shifting from manual analysis to automated solutions. A key player in this process is Pine Script — a programming language developed for the TradingView platform, enabling users to create custom indicators, strategies, and automated signals. Its simplicity and powerful capabilities have made it especially popular among retail traders. What is Pine Script? Pine Script is a language developed by the TradingView team specifically for financial market analysis. Unlike general-purpose languages like Python or C++, Pine Script is designed for tasks related to technical analysis and trading automation. It is used for: Creating custom indicators; Writing trading strategies; Visualizing data on charts; Setting up trading alerts (notifications). Why Automate Trading? Automated trading eliminates the human factor, which is crucial in volatile markets. Key advantages include: Speed of reaction — the algorithm reacts instantly to signals. Discipline — automated strategies do not succumb to emotions. Scalability — one strategy can be applied to dozens of instruments. Historical analysis — the ability to test ideas on past data (backtesting). Structure of a Pine Script Every script starts with a version declaration and the type of tool being created: pinescript Copy Edit //@version=5 indicator("Sample Indicator", overlay=true) @version=5 — Pine Script version. indicator(...) — indicates that the script is an indicator. overlay=true — places graphics over the price chart. For strategies, the strategy keyword is used: pinescript Copy Edit strategy("My Strategy", overlay=true) Example of a Simple Automated Strategy Let’s build a script that generates buy and sell signals based on the crossover of two moving averages: pinescript Copy Edit //@version=5 strategy("MA Strategy", overlay=true) fastMA = ta.sma(close, 9) slowMA = ta.sma(close, 21) longCondition = ta.crossover(fastMA, slowMA) shortCondition = ta.crossunder(fastMA, slowMA) if longCondition strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long) if shortCondition strategy.entry("Sell", strategy.short) plot(fastMA, color=color.green) plot(slowMA, color=color.red) This code: Opens a long position when the fast MA crosses above the slow MA. Opens a short position when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA. Strategy Backtesting TradingView automatically runs a backtest on historical data. In the Strategy Tester tab, users get: total number of trades; average profit; win rate; maximum drawdown; risk/reward ratio. This is a vital tool to evaluate the effectiveness of a strategy before deploying it in live trading. Adding Stop Loss and Take Profit To manage risk, strategies can include loss and profit limits: pinescript Copy Edit strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long) strategy.exit("Exit Buy", from_entry="Buy", stop=100, limit=200) stop=100 — stop loss at 100 points. limit=200 — take profit at 200 points. This enhances both automation and risk control in the trading process. Setting Up Alerts While Pine Script cannot place real trades by itself, it can generate alert signals, which can be linked to external systems or brokers. pinescript Copy Edit alertcondition(longCondition, title="Buy Signal", message="Buy signal") alertcondition(shortCondition, title="Sell Signal", message="Sell signal") After adding these conditions to the chart, users can set up alerts that arrive via email, mobile notifications, or webhooks—useful for integration with bots or APIs. Automated Trading via API For full automation (from signal to trade execution), Pine Script is often used in conjunction with other technologies: Webhook — TradingView sends an HTTP request when an alert triggers. Server or bot — receives and processes the request, then sends an order to the broker. Broker’s API — executes the order (open, close, modify positions). Examples of brokers with API access: Binance, Bybit, Interactive Brokers, Alpaca, MetaTrader (via third-party bridges). Tips for Writing Trading Strategies Start simple. Use just 1–2 indicators. Avoid overfitting. Don’t tailor your strategy too closely to past data. Test on different timeframes. Ensure strategy stability. Account for fees and slippage. Especially important on lower timeframes. Add filters. For example, trend direction, volume, or volatility conditions. Pine Script Limitations While powerful and beginner-friendly, Pine Script has some limitations: No tick-by-tick data access. Scripts execute on bar close. Resource limits. Limits on script length and processing power. No direct trade execution. Only possible via external integration or supported brokers. Conclusion Pine Script is an excellent tool for traders who want to automate their trading ideas. It allows you to create, test, and visualize strategies—even with minimal programming knowledge. While it’s not a full-fledged programming language, its capabilities are more than sufficient for most retail trading needs. With Pine Script, traders can improve efficiency, consistency, and reduce the emotional impact of trading decisions.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by HCN-News12
BTC climbs the stairsFrom the bear market lows(red) we entered into consolidation phase(white) in 2023 and in october 2023 the bull market was ignited(green). Since then BTC has climbed these ~50% steps up and right now we are at the verge of entering the last 50% step up of this bull phase taking us up to 160k. Are we going to see the last step up on upcoming months or are we going to see a rejection and keep consolidating inside the current box? If we compare the previous two steps up(green arrow) to the current situation, the set up is a little bit different now than before. Previously, BTC has practically blasted through the box resistance without hesitation but now we have spent more time just underneath the box resistance with two failed attemps(3D) of breaking the resistance. Also, what concerns me, is the fact that during this cycle the summer months june-july(marked inside the box) has not been strong for BTC and we have witnessed MACD forming bearish divergences during these months due to a rejection from the highs towards the bottom of the box. This very thing is happening again and if confirmed, no new ATHs for this summer. Of course, a solid strong candle close above the resistance clarifies the future and set us on our way to 160k.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by ImBaBu
BTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout SetupBTC/USD Potential Reversal & Bullish Breakout Setup 🔄🚀 Technical Analysis Overview: 🔹 Pattern Formation: The chart displays a potential Triple Bottom pattern (🟠), a classic reversal signal forming at the $104,870–$100,000 support zone 🛡️. This structure suggests a strong base is being established for a potential upside move. 🔹 Support Zone: 📉 The price has consistently bounced off the major support area around $100,000–$104,870, indicating strong buying interest. 🔹 Resistance Zone: 📊 The key resistance level lies around the $114,000–$115,000 range 🔵, which has been tested multiple times in the past (🔴 arrows) and could act as a future profit target. 🔹 Price Action & Projection: Currently, price is trading near $107,025 and is showing signs of bullish continuation after forming a higher low. If the price consolidates above the $104,870 zone and holds support, we could see a potential breakout targeting the $114,000 resistance 📈. 📌 Key Takeaways: ✅ Triple Bottom formation signals trend reversal. 🔄 Bullish structure confirmed above $104,870. 🎯 Next target: $114,000 if breakout holds. ⚠️ Watch for potential consolidation before continuation.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MrStellanSight
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Reach Previous ATH?!Bitcoin is above EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its short-term descending channel. We can look for Bitcoin short positions from the specified supply range. If this range is broken, the path to the rise and a new ATH for Bitcoin will be presented. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market is required, more than we would like. If the downtrend continues, I can buy in the desired range. Bitcoin is now approaching its all-time high, yet unlike previous bullish cycles, we have not seen widespread profit-taking so far. The market’s whales currently seem uninterested in large-scale selling at these levels and appear to be waiting for higher price targets. Since the start of January 2024, cumulative inflows of over $60 billion have poured into crypto-related investment products in the U.S., including ETPs and ETFs. In addition, retail investor futures trading volumes have recently surpassed their one-year average. Indicators of retail activity suggest that a significant number of smaller investors have become active in the futures markets. The total assets under management by crypto investment funds surged to an unprecedented $167 billion in May. This impressive growth was fueled by net inflows of more than $7 billion into these funds. Meanwhile, global equity funds recorded $5.9 billion in outflows, and gold funds, for the first time in 15 months, also saw capital leaving. The year 2025 could turn out to be the most dangerous year yet for cryptocurrency holders. Already, more than 25 incidents involving physical attacks on crypto owners have been reported, and the year isn’t even over. These attacks have targeted individuals whose digital asset information or identities were compromised, leading to thefts, kidnappings, physical threats, or assaults. On another front, the total value of circulating stablecoins has surpassed $250 billion, more than doubling from its mid-2023 low of $123 billion. USDT remains the market leader with a 62% share, followed by USDC at 24%, while other stablecoins such as USDe, DAI, and BUIDL are also expanding their presence. It is worth noting that average spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges have dropped to their lowest levels since October 2020.This kind of pattern typically precedes a significant price move—whether that’s a sharp rally or a deep correction. It’s also possible that this phase of uncertainty could persist for several more weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ali_PSND
Possible descending triangle, likely will break to downside.Despite Bitcoin (BTC) maintaining a price above $100,000 for several weeks now, it is clearly being supported by institutional buyers propelling the market. This is very bullish for the long term; however, BTC does need to correct in order to grow further. Volume continues to drop, and as soon as institutional buyers take a break, the price could crash. Given that this cycle has introduced new market players, ETFs, and considering the current economic climate, a decline of over 60% down to its support level of $44,000 seems likely in the next year. We all know how it goes: when Bitcoin goes through tough times, it can seem like it’s dead, and that could be the best time to buy. In the long run, if you're dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and have no intention of selling, I am confident that BTC will reach $250,000 in the next cycle, if not $500,000. However, it must correct to strengthen the lower supports and flush out over-leveraged traders. Remember the saying: "When the tide goes out, we see who is swimming naked." This will happen again; it's Bitcoin!
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by Discombobulate1
when Jerome says spike, the markets asks how low/high"Watch what they do, but also how they say it." In the high-stakes world of central banking, few things move markets like the subtle wording of a Fed statement, But beyond the headlines and soundbites, one market absorbs this information faster—and with greater clarity—than almost any other: the bond market. 💬 What Is "Fed Speak"? "Fed speak" refers to the nuanced and often deliberately vague language used by U.S. Federal Reserve officials when communicating policy expectations. It includes: FOMC statements Dot plot projections Press conferences Individual speeches from Fed officials nerdy tip: the Fed aims to influence expectations without committing to specific outcomes, maintaining flexibility while steering market psychology. 📈 The Bond Market as a Decoder The bond market, particularly the U.S. Treasury market, is where real-time interpretation of Fed policy plays out. Here's how it typically reacts: 1. Short-Term Yields (2Y, 3M) = Fed Expectation Barometer These are the most sensitive to near-term interest rate expectations. If the Fed sounds hawkish (more rate hikes), short-term yields jump. If dovish (hinting cuts), they fall. At the May 7, 2025 FOMC meeting, the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y) experienced a modest but clear reaction: Just before the release, yields were hovering around 3.79%. In the first hour following the 2:00 PM ET (20:00 UTC+2) statement, the yield ticked up by approximately +8 basis points, temporarily reaching about 3.87%. Later that day, it eased back to around 3.79%, ending the day roughly unchanged—a sharp, immediate spike followed by a reversion. 2. Long-Term Yields (10Y, 30Y) = Growth + Inflation Expectations Longer-dated yields reflect how the market sees the economy unfolding over time. After a Fed speech: Rising long-term yields = stronger growth/inflation expected Falling yields = fears of recession, disinflation, or policy over-tightening 3. The Yield Curve = Market's Policy Verdict One of the best tools to read the bond market's verdict is the yield curve—specifically, the spread between 10Y and 2Y yields. Steepening curve → Market thinks growth is picking up (Fed may be behind the curve) Flattening or Inversion → Market believes the Fed is too aggressive, risking a slowdown or recession 📉 Example: After Jerome Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech in 2022, the 2Y-10Y spread inverted deeply—markets were pricing in recession risks despite a strong Fed tone. 🧠 Why Traders Must Watch Bonds After Fed Speak 🪙 FX Traders: Higher yields = stronger USD (carry trade advantage) Falling yields = weaker USD (lower return for holding) 📈 Equity Traders: Rising yields = pressure on tech/growth stocks (higher discount rates) Falling yields = relief rally in risk assets 📊 Macro Traders: The MOVE Index (bond volatility) often spikes around FOMC events Forward guidance shifts = big rotation opportunities (e.g., bonds > gold > dollar) (BONUS NERDY TIP) 🔍 How to Analyze Fed Speak Through Bonds ✅ Step 1: Watch the 2Y Yield First responder to new rate expectations. ✅ Step 2: Check the Fed Funds Futures Compare market pricing pre- and post-statement. ✅ Step 3: Look at Yield Curve Movement Steepening or inversion? That’s the market’s macro take. ✅ Step 4: Track TLT or 10Y Yield on Your Chart Bond ETFs or Treasury yields reveal sentiment instantly. 🧭 Final Nerdy Thought : Bonds React First, Talk Later When the Fed speaks, don't just read the words. Read the yields. The bond market is often the first to interpret what the Fed really means—and the first to price in what comes next. So next FOMC meeting, instead of watching only Powell’s facial expressions or CNBC pundits, open a chart of the 2Y and 10Y. That’s where the smart money’s listening. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile courtesy of : @TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Bitcoin Bounce & Breakout PlayChart Analysis: 🔹 Support Holding Strong: BTC is respecting a key support area (~$105,600), which previously acted as resistance (marked by recent ATH). 🔹 EMA 70 (Blue Line): Price is hovering above the EMA, adding bullish confirmation. 🔹 Bullish Projection Path: The chart shows a projected bullish move toward the sell zone near $113,200 – $113,300, representing a potential 4.4% gain from the breakout. 🔹 Key Zones: Support Zone: $105,600 Supply Zone: $100,500 Sell Zone (TP Zone): $113,200+ 📌 Outlook: If BTC breaks and holds above the resistance (~$107,000), a strong upward rally could follow. Entry near support or on breakout, with tight risk management, offers a favorable risk/reward. ✅ Entry Options: Breakout Entry: Trigger: Break and close above $107,200 Confirmation: Retest and hold above the breakout zone Entry: $107,300 – $107,500 Support Bounce Entry: Trigger: Pullback to support zone (~$105,600) with bullish reversal candle Entry: $105,600 – $105,800 🎯 Target Zones (TP): TP1: $110,400 (minor resistance) TP2: $113,200 – $113,300 (major sell zone) TP3 (aggressive): $114,000+ 🔻 Stop Loss (SL): For breakout entry: SL below $106,200 For bounce entry: SL below $105,200 or $104,800 (structure break) 📈 Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3+ depending on entry and target 🧠 Trade Management: Move SL to breakeven after hitting TP1 Partial profit booking at TP1 Trail remaining with manual or dynamic SL (e.g., below EMA or recent low) ⚠️ Risk Notes: Avoid chasing price without breakout confirmation Watch for fakeouts and heavy selling near TP zones Adjust position size based on your risk tolerance
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by KingProTrader