Bitcoin Bounce & Breakout PlayChart Analysis:
🔹 Support Holding Strong:
BTC is respecting a key support area (~$105,600), which previously acted as resistance (marked by recent ATH).
🔹 EMA 70 (Blue Line):
Price is hovering above the EMA, adding bullish confirmation.
🔹 Bullish Projection Path:
The chart shows a projected bullish move toward the sell zone near $113,200 – $113,300, representing a potential 4.4% gain from the breakout.
🔹 Key Zones:
Support Zone: $105,600
Supply Zone: $100,500
Sell Zone (TP Zone): $113,200+
📌 Outlook:
If BTC breaks and holds above the resistance (~$107,000), a strong upward rally could follow. Entry near support or on breakout, with tight risk management, offers a favorable risk/reward.
✅ Entry Options:
Breakout Entry:
Trigger: Break and close above $107,200
Confirmation: Retest and hold above the breakout zone
Entry: $107,300 – $107,500
Support Bounce Entry:
Trigger: Pullback to support zone (~$105,600) with bullish reversal candle
Entry: $105,600 – $105,800
🎯 Target Zones (TP):
TP1: $110,400 (minor resistance)
TP2: $113,200 – $113,300 (major sell zone)
TP3 (aggressive): $114,000+
🔻 Stop Loss (SL):
For breakout entry: SL below $106,200
For bounce entry: SL below $105,200 or $104,800 (structure break)
📈 Risk–Reward Ratio:
Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3+ depending on entry and target
🧠 Trade Management:
Move SL to breakeven after hitting TP1
Partial profit booking at TP1
Trail remaining with manual or dynamic SL (e.g., below EMA or recent low)
⚠️ Risk Notes:
Avoid chasing price without breakout confirmation
Watch for fakeouts and heavy selling near TP zones
Adjust position size based on your risk tolerance
BTCUSD trade ideas
Sell Setup BTCUSDCurrently, BTC/USD is approaching a key supply zone between $107,800 – $108,600, where price previously faced strong rejection. My expectation is that price will react similarly upon retest.
🧠 Trade Idea:
I'm anticipating a fakeout or liquidity grab above the zone, followed by a lower high formation.
Once this confirmation occurs, I’ll be looking for a short entry, targeting the major demand zone below, around $100,800 – $101,600.
✅ Confluences:
Previous price rejection from this same resistance zone.
Clean bearish imbalance below that still needs filling.
Lower timeframes showing signs of exhaustion as we approach resistance.
🕵️♂️ Entry Trigger:
I’ll wait for bearish price action within or just above the yellow resistance zone (e.g. bearish engulfing, lower high, or break of structure).
📉 Target:
TP Zone: $101,000 area
SL: Just above the fakeout zone to manage risk effectively.
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BTC Trading in a Range.Support & Resistance Levels:
R1: ~106,300
R2: ~109,000
R3: ~111,600
S1: ~102,800
S2: ~100,000
Bearish RSI Divergence
Price made higher highs earlier (around June 10-11).
RSI made lower highs, indicating bearish divergence.
Price Action
BTC bounced back from below S1 (~102,800) and is now hovering around R1 (~106,300).
If it breaks and sustains above R1, we could see a move toward R2 (109k).
However, failure at R1 can lead to a pullback to S1 or S2 levels.
Strategy Suggestions:
📌 If Bullish:
Wait for a clean breakout above R1 (~106,300) with volume.
Potential targets: R2 (109k) and R3 (111.6k).
📌 If Bearish:
If price fails to hold R1 and rejects, consider short opportunities.
Targets would be: S1 (102.8k) and S2 (100k).
Keep an eye on RSI — if it forms another divergence or crosses down the MA, bearish bias increases.
⚠️ Risk Factors:
BTC is still within a consolidation range between R1 and S1.
No clear breakout yet; be cautious with position sizing.
Watch for macroeconomic news/events, as they can spike volatility.
Ready for the plunge. Market meltdown incoming!⚠️ UPDATED ASSESSMENT - MAXIMUM RISK
Escalation Level: MAXIMUM RISK - The conflict has now reached unprecedented scale with 720+ military facilities attacked, confirmed US involvement, and potential for regional Islamic coalition forming against Israel.
Financial Market Risk: 95/100 - We are approaching systemic financial risk with oil supply chains threatened, nuclear facilities under massive attack, and potential for regional war involving multiple Islamic nations.
Critical Factors: Scale of destruction (170+ targets), nuclear program targeting (80+ sites), US military involvement confirmed, calls for Islamic unity, and expert warnings of broader regional war.
Immediate Concerns: Complete breakdown of Middle East oil supply, global energy crisis, nuclear contamination risks, and potential World War III scenario if regional Islamic coalition forms.
BITCOIN: The $110K Crossroads - Bull vs Bear Battleground! The Setup: "The Healthy Pullback Hypothesis
🔵 BLUE SUPPORT TRENDLINE (Rising from ~$76K)
The Foundation: This ascending support has held multiple tests
Current Status: Price dancing right on this crucial line
Psychology: Bulls' last stand
🔴 RED RESISTANCE CHANNEL (Descending from $112K peak)
The Ceiling: Two parallel resistance lines creating downward pressure
Pattern: Classic bearish channel formation
Volume Profile: Declining volume suggests exhaustion
🟡 YELLOW HORIZONTAL ZONES
Key Level 1: ~$98K (Previous resistance turned support)
Key Level 2: ~$112K (The rejection zone)
🟢 BULLISH SCENARIO (65% Probability)
Setup: Breakout above red channel resistance (~$108K)
🚀 Rocket Ship: Explosive move to $120K+
📉 Reality Check: Deeper correction to $95K-98K range
Entry: $97K - 98K (confirmed breakout)
Target 1: $104K
Target 2: $110K
Stop Loss: $95K
____________________________
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes. Always manage risk and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent! ⚠️
Bitcoin Bitcoin is showing strong momentum to keep moving up.
📊 But for it to truly explode, we need to see inflation spike past 3%.
🔥 Why? Because Bitcoin thrives in high-inflation environments it’s the hedge, the leverage, and the escape route.
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BTC/USD Approaching Key Buy Zone – Watching 104,845 for Reaction
Bitcoin has broken out of a descending channel and is now approaching a potential buy zone between 105,176.89 and 104,845.01. This zone aligns with previous support and trendline confluence, making it a critical area to monitor for bullish reactions.
If price finds support within this zone and confirms with a bounce or bullish pattern, a move toward the 106,268.53 resistance is a possible scenario.
However, a confirmed break below 104,296.67 could signal a shift in momentum and potentially invalidate the bullish setup.
🔹 Buy Zone: 105,176.89 – 104,845.01
🔹 Bearish Invalidator Level: 104,296.67
🔹 Target Area: 106,268.53
🔹 Timeframe: 1H chart
🔹 Trend Context: Price broke previous bearish structure and entered a short-term bullish phase.
This is a technical observation for educational purposes only.
Circle’s IPO and the Crypto Listing Wave: The Market EntersOn June 14, 2025, the U.S. stock market witnessed a pivotal moment for the crypto industry. Circle, issuer of the USDC stablecoin and a major player in the sector, successfully went public. Shares opened at $31 and soared to over $134 by the end of the first trading day—an explosive 330% gain.
This isn’t just a one-off success. It marks the beginning of a new chapter: the public crypto era, where leading crypto companies are stepping into the spotlight of traditional finance.
Why It Matters
Circle’s IPO signals the maturation of the crypto market. Just three years ago, crypto companies were seen as high-risk, unregulated tech startups. Now, they’re structured fintech firms with clear business models, institutional backing, and regulatory compliance.
Who’s Next in Line
Following Circle, a wave of major crypto firms is preparing for their own IPOs:
eToro – the social trading platform with crypto features has finalized its SPAC merger and is set to debut on NASDAQ.
Gemini – the exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins filed for an IPO in mid-May.
Galaxy Digital and Ripple – both confirmed listing plans for the second half of 2025.
Kraken is exploring a listing in Europe, where requirements are more flexible than in the U.S.
These companies are waiting for the right moment—regulatory clarity, growing interest in crypto ETFs, and progress in U.S. Congress (with the CLARITY and GENIUS bills gaining momentum).
What It Means for the Industry
Increased Investor Trust – Public companies must disclose financials, pass audits, and comply with regulations. This builds confidence in the broader crypto sector.
Institutional Capital Inflow – IPOs unlock access to capital from pension funds, hedge funds, and asset managers that cannot invest in private crypto startups.
Marketing Power – Going public draws media attention and boosts brand awareness. Every IPO is a PR win for the entire industry.
Risks and Challenges
Regulatory Uncertainty – Despite progress, the SEC could change direction, especially with potential political shifts.
Overvaluation Concerns – Circle’s stock is already raising eyebrows, with a P/E ratio over 200 and trading volume growing faster than revenue.
Crypto Market Dependency – If crypto prices crash, the valuations of these companies could quickly collapse.
What’s Next
Expect up to 10 more crypto IPOs over the next 6–12 months, including players in DeFi, blockchain infrastructure, and Web3. This is the next stage in crypto’s journey toward mainstream legitimacy.
What was once the domain of tech rebels and early adopters is now becoming a business—with a stock ticker and quarterly earnings. And that changes everything.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 13, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Throughout the past week, Bitcoin has exhibited considerable volatility. After reaching a peak at the first Mean Resistance level of 109500, the cryptocurrency experienced a significant decline. Nevertheless, on Friday, Bitcoin demonstrated a notable recovery, ascending to a newly established resistance now designated as the new Mean Resistance level marked at 110300.
At this juncture, Bitcoin is retracing downward as it retests the initial Mean Support level of 104000 while aiming to target the Mean Support at 101500 and the ultimate Inner Coin Dip at 96500. It is essential to recognize the potential for an upward rally from the Mean Support levels of $ 104,000 and/or $ 101,500, which could culminate in a retest of the Mean Resistance level of $ 110,300.
BTCUSD Hey everyone,
Taking a closer look at the BTCUSD chart, I've plotted some interesting price levels that could act as significant support and resistance in the coming weeks. This analysis aligns with what appears to be a trend-based Fibonacci time analysis, and I've also marked some crucial dates where we might see major market changes.
Based on our observations, we're seeing a range of important price action. For instance, notice the cluster of highs around the 112,048 to 113,343 area. These levels, particularly those marked with an asterisk such as 112,167, 112,503, and 113,006, have previously shown strong upward movements, suggesting they could serve as notable resistance if price attempts to push higher.
Conversely, on the downside, the levels from 111,952 down to 110,665, with points like 111,833, 111,499, and 110,832 highlighted, have historically seen bounces or significant slowing of downward momentum. These could very well act as crucial support areas, preventing further declines.
As we move forward, it will be crucial to observe how price interacts with these levels, especially around the following dates where we might see major market shifts:
July 4th, 2025
July 11th, 2025
July 26th, 2025
August 9th, 2025
August 16th, 2025
September 9th, 2025
The higher resistance points reaching up to 118,793 and lower support extending to 105,407 define a broader range we'll be watching closely.
Keep an eye on these zones for potential reversals or breakthroughs, particularly around the dates mentioned, which could signal the next significant move for Bitcoin. As always, manage your risk accordingly.
What are your thoughts on these levels and potential turning points? Share in the comments below!
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Price High Price Low
112048 111952
112084 111916
*112167 *111833
*112335 *111666
*112503 *111499
*112670 *111332
*112838 *111165
*113006 *110998
*113174 *110832
*113343 *110665
114017 110001
*114693 *109339
115372 108678
116052 108020
116734 107364
*117419 *106709
118105 106057
118793 105407
BTC: Is the other shoe going to drop?The move up from June 5th low has been in 3 waves. The current global economic situations have rattled the overall markets this week. Even though BTC is holding the 102k support so far, things are getting much weaker as time passes. If the 102 K support breaks, then we will most likely see a flush down to 95k-90k area. Personally, I will be cautious buyer there. Even a stroll down to 85k won't be super bearish long term. Anything below that might spell bad news. Starting small and assessing the situation will be key. I don't put stop loss on BTC. But, if price keeps getting lower highs, then, breaking 80k will be my signal to get out on the next spike and reassess the situation.
BTCUSD - LONGS📉 BTCUSD Reversion Setup – After the Drop
This dual-timeframe view of BTCUSD shows how the ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion Strategy identified an excellent buy opportunity following a sharp selloff — with signals printing on both the 1H and 15min charts, offering strong confluence for a recovery play.
⸻
🟢 Here’s What Happened:
1. High-Volatility Drop Into Oversold Levels
BTC saw an aggressive downward move, likely driven by news or a liquidation event. Price pushed deep below the lower statistical deviation bands, entering a classic mean reversion zone.
2. 1H Timeframe – Strong “UP” Signal
The 1-hour chart printed a clean “UP” signal right after the bottom formed. This confirmed that the move had extended far beyond normal volatility and that RSI was signaling exhaustion.
3. 15min Timeframe – Supporting Signal with Early RSI Recovery
Shortly before the 1H signal, the 15min chart had already printed an “UP” signal of its own — with RSI sharply recovering from deeply oversold conditions. This served as an early entry signal, with the higher timeframe confirming the broader move.
4. Sharp Bounce Followed
After the signals aligned, BTCUSD quickly rallied over $2,000 off the lows, offering a clean and profitable reversion move.
⸻
✅ How to Use This Type of Setup:
• Watch for aggressive price drops or spikes that push outside statistical volatility bands.
• Look for an “UP” or “DOWN” signal on the lower timeframe (15min) for early entry opportunities.
• Then look for confirmation on the higher timeframe (1H) to strengthen your confidence in the trade.
• RSI recovery across both timeframes adds a momentum-based edge to the mean reversion logic.
⸻
🎯 Why This Worked:
This trade worked because multiple signals lined up at once:
• Deep price extension
• Oversold RSI
• Volume-driven spike
• Multi-timeframe signal agreement
This confluence increases the probability of success and helps avoid false entries during volatility.
Bitcoin at a Generational Crossroads : The $115k Decision Point Chart: BTC/USD, Monthly Timeframe
Bias: Neutral to Bearish if key resistance holds.
Idea: This is a long-term analysis based on historical price action within a multi-year channel.
Summary (The Thesis):
This analysis looks at Bitcoin's price action on the monthly chart, contained within a large, ascending parallel channel that has defined bull and bear cycles for years. We are currently testing the upper boundary of this channel, a historical resistance zone.
My thesis is that the $110,000 - $115,000 zone represents a critical decision point for the entire market. A failure to decisively break above this level could initiate a significant, multi-month pullback to reset market sentiment and gather liquidity before the next major leg up.
The Macro Analysis (The "Why") :
The Ascending Channel: As you can see on the monthly chart, Bitcoin's price has respected this ascending channel since 2017. The upper line has consistently acted as a major distribution zone and cycle top (marked with red arrows), while the lower line has served as a generational buying opportunity (marked with green arrows). We are currently at the upper line.
Historical Resistance: History shows that the first test of this upper channel boundary is rarely successful. The price often requires a significant consolidation or a deep correction before it can muster the strength to break into a new price paradigm.
Market Mechanics & Liquidity: From a market mechanics perspective, a massive number of longs have entered the market since the move up from the $70k-$75k range. A "huge pullback" would serve to liquidate these late, over-leveraged positions, allowing market makers to absorb liquidity and build the necessary foundation for a sustainable break of the all-time high later on.