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BTCUSD trade ideas

Bitcoin Brewing - A large move is coming!Bitcoin has been under pressure over the last few trading sessions. Despite the equity markets going higher this asset is stuck in a holding pattern. We are currently forming a wedge pattern that has given us a directional bias to trade. Price action is at a 50/50 in terms of falling lower or rallying higher. Being the fact that the bulls have been forming higher lows & higher highs, we have to give them due respect. However understand this BTC is showing some distribution signs and is likely going to have a decent selloff within the next 15-45days. We may have 1 more spike higher but we may not. 1 note of interest is the 7day & 20 day moving average just signaled a bearish crossover which is something you need to monitor closely. I do think the upside is limited to about 115K if we have 1 more move higher.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trading-Capital
BTC SHORTBitcoin is currently showing signs of a potential retracement into a premium zone before possibly continuing lower. Here's my idea: 🔹 Market Structure: After a strong move up and a local top, price is forming a potential M-pattern with lower highs. 🔸 Rejection Zone: Watching the 0.75 zone (~106.5k–107k) for possible rejection – aligns with previous structure and imbalance. 🟩 Bearish Target: First discount PD array marked between 98k and 100k. 🟥 Invalidation: Clean break above 109k invalidates the short idea. 🔄 Trade Plan: Wait for confirmation (rejection + bearish structure) around the 0.75 zone. Look for entry on lower timeframes (M15–H1). Partial TP around 101k–102k. Final target near 98k. 📌 Not financial advice – do your own research.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by anoir_
1
$BTC outlook, TOP or NOT?!Today someone said to me: Bitcoin is not performing well. And I open the charts and see it at almost ATH. We barely missed the longterm target by less than 1% and we have a similar situation like in $SPY. I have reasons to be bullish. I have a voice which is getting cautious, at least if we dont stay up this month. Worst case would be a drop under 90k, it would mark the top for a longer time in my eyes. Against all the sayings 'its healthy if we go down, after we can have a rally', my opinion is: we should stay UP this month - then we can flash a longterm trend (until end of nov, a bit longer than AMEX:SPY ) and end up in a range from 155k to 260k. Im just long spot and my capacity is maxed out for crypto (Im long BITSTAMP:ETHUSD and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD only), IF we get a bullish continuation in weekly (which will be clear over next 2 weeks) I go trough NASDAQ:MSTR into more exposure, even if I hate the stock. My outlook right now: if we can stay up this month we will probably get a nice rally and top end of year. I hope Im right. best wishes for your trades and risk management, peace!
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by TiMMiT
1
BTCUSD: This part may be the most exciting of all.Bitcoin is on an excellent bullish 1W technical outlook (RSI = 65.366, MACD = 6742.800, ADX = 33.478) unphazed by the recent short term pullback. This is because the Cycle is only now starting is strongest phase, at least based on the historic price action of the former Cycles. After the U.S. elections in November 2024, we've crossed above the Bear Cycle neckline and on all previous Cycles, that is where the parabolic rally started. How high it can go is anybody's guess and depends largely on fundamentals (adoption, ETF, Rate Cuts) but we can agree that we will see at least 150,000 before this Cycle ends. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
The Bitcoin Illusion: Unraveling the Largest Financial Bubble inIntroduction Bitcoin, often hailed as the future of money, a decentralized dream, and a hedge against fiat currencies, has captured the imagination of millions. Its meteoric rise from obscurity to a trillion-dollar market cap has fueled narratives of financial liberation and technological revolution. However, beneath the surface lies a troubling reality: Bitcoin’s story is a carefully orchestrated illusion, a bubble of unprecedented scale propped up by insiders, manipulative schemes, and a lack of real-world demand. This article dissects the claims surrounding Bitcoin’s legitimacy, exposing the mechanisms behind its inflated value and the insiders who control its narrative, wallets, and even laws. From El Salvador’s failed experiment to Tether’s opaque operations and the leveraged plays of figures like Jack Mallers and Michael Saylor, we’ll uncover why Bitcoin is poised to become the largest financial scandal in history. 1. The El Salvador Mirage: A Manufactured “Adoption” Narrative In 2021, El Salvador made headlines as the first nation to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, a move championed by President Nayib Bukele and Bitcoin advocate Jack Mallers. The announcement, delivered with emotional fanfare at the Bitcoin Conference in Miami, was sold as a revolutionary step toward financial inclusion and sovereignty. But the reality is far less inspiring. Blockchain data and reports suggest that El Salvador’s Bitcoin “investment” is not what it seems, revealing a troubling connection to Tether and Bitfinex that undermines the narrative of organic adoption. The Blockchain Evidence Recent on-chain analysis indicates that of the 6,114 Bitcoin held in El Salvador’s treasury, 6,111 BTC were transferred directly from wallets linked to Bitfinex and Tether, not purchased on the open market. This raises serious questions about the authenticity of El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy. If a nation were truly adopting Bitcoin as a currency, one would expect transparent, market-based purchases, not opaque transfers from a single entity. Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, has deep ties to Bitfinex, and both entities have been scrutinized for their lack of transparency and history of regulatory violations. The fact that Tether reportedly drafted El Salvador’s Bitcoin legislation further muddies the waters, suggesting a coordinated effort to create the appearance of national adoption. The Chivo Wallet Collapse El Salvador’s Chivo Wallet, launched to facilitate Bitcoin transactions, was supposed to be the cornerstone of this experiment. Yet, it has been an unmitigated failure. Usage plummeted by 98.9% shortly after its launch, and the wallet is now effectively defunct. Reports indicate that the infrastructure was plagued by technical issues, low adoption rates, and a lack of trust among citizens. This collapse undermines the claim that Bitcoin enjoys organic demand in El Salvador. Instead, it points to a top-down push, likely incentivized by Tether and Bitfinex, to create a facade of success. A Liquidity Laundering Scheme? The involvement of Tether and Bitfinex suggests a deeper motive: a liquidity laundering scheme designed to prop up Bitcoin’s price and Tether’s reserves. By transferring Bitcoin to El Salvador’s treasury, Tether could inflate the perception of institutional adoption, encouraging retail investors to buy in. Bukele’s government, facing economic challenges and seeking global attention, was an ideal partner. The arrangement benefits all parties: Bukele gains PR as a forward-thinking leader, Bitfinex secures liquidity, and Tether maintains its fragile peg. But the lack of real demand in El Salvador exposes this as a manufactured narrative, not a genuine economic shift. 2. Jack Mallers and Twenty One Capital: Tether’s Puppet Play Jack Mallers, the charismatic CEO of Strike and now Twenty One Capital, has positioned himself as a Bitcoin evangelist, promising to outdo Michael Saylor in the race to accumulate BTC. His new venture, Twenty One Capital, launched with a $3.6 billion Bitcoin treasury, backed by Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank. But a closer look reveals that this is less an investment firm and more a cog in the Tether-Bitfinex machine, designed to perpetuate the illusion of Bitcoin’s dominance. On-Chain Revelations On-chain data shows that 25,812 BTC, worth over $2 billion, were transferred to Twenty One Capital from Tether and Bitfinex wallets in June 2025 alone. An earlier transfer of 4,812 BTC for $458.7 million was also traced to Tether. These transactions, detailed in reports from Bitcoin Magazine and other sources, indicate that Twenty One’s Bitcoin holdings are not the result of market demand but rather internal movements within the Tether ecosystem. This is not investment—it’s accounting sleight of hand, designed to create the appearance of institutional interest. Strike’s Tether Dependency Mallers’ other venture, Strike, has long relied on Tether’s USDT for its payment infrastructure. Despite Mallers’ public Bitcoin maximalism, Strike’s operations have historically leaned on USDT, with reports confirming that 100% of its payments flow through Tether’s stablecoin. This dependency raises questions about Mallers’ independence and suggests that his ventures are extensions of Tether’s agenda. Strike’s reported $6 billion in transaction volume in 2024 and high profit margins are impressive, but they hinge on Tether’s opaque operations, not a decentralized Bitcoin economy. The Saylor Playbook, Amplified Twenty One Capital explicitly models itself after Michael Saylor’s Strategy, aiming to “Saylorize” corporate Bitcoin adoption. But unlike Strategy, which at least operates as a publicly traded company with some regulatory oversight, Twenty One is majority-owned by Tether and Bitfinex, entities with a history of legal troubles. Tether’s $145 billion market cap and lack of independent audits make it a risky linchpin for such a venture. Mallers’ promise to grow “Bitcoin per share” sounds innovative, but it’s a repackaged version of the same leveraged speculation that fuels Bitcoin’s bubble. 3. Michael Saylor and Strategy: The Leveraged Ponzi Loop Michael Saylor, the outspoken CEO of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), is often credited with pioneering corporate Bitcoin adoption. His company holds over 580,000 BTC, valued at approximately $64 billion as of June 2025. But Saylor’s strategy is not about sound money—it’s a high-stakes gamble that relies on perpetual hype and leverage to sustain itself. The Circular Scheme Saylor’s playbook is simple: raise capital through debt or equity, buy Bitcoin, hype the price, raise more capital, and repeat. This circular loop has driven Strategy’s stock to dizzying heights, with a market cap of $94 billion despite minimal operational revenue. The company’s aggressive borrowing—over $4 billion in convertible notes—makes it one of the riskiest stocks in the market. If Bitcoin’s price falters, Strategy’s debt obligations could trigger a catastrophic unwind, wiping out shareholders and exposing the fragility of its model. No Real Innovation Strategy’s pivot from a struggling software company to a Bitcoin proxy is not innovation—it’s financial engineering. By tying its value to Bitcoin’s price, Saylor has created a vehicle for speculation, not utility. The company produces no meaningful Bitcoin-based products or services, relying instead on market sentiment to drive its stock price. This mirrors the dot-com bubble, where companies with no viable business models soared on hype alone. Insider Connections? While direct evidence of Saylor’s ties to Tether is lacking, the parallels between Strategy’s strategy and the Tether-Bitfinex ecosystem are striking. Both rely on inflating Bitcoin’s price through artificial demand, whether via Tether’s unbacked USDT minting or Strategy’s leveraged purchases. The lack of transparency in both operations suggests a coordinated effort to maintain the illusion of Bitcoin’s value. 4. Tether and Bitcoin: A Circular Backing Loop At the heart of Bitcoin’s bubble lies Tether, the stablecoin issuer that has become the crypto market’s central bank. Tether’s USDT, pegged to the dollar, is the lifeblood of crypto exchanges, accounting for over 70% of trading volume. But its opaque reserves and history of regulatory violations make it a ticking time bomb, with Bitcoin as its primary collateral damage. Tether’s Bitcoin Hoard At the Bitcoin 2025 Conference, Tether announced it holds over 100,000 BTC and 50 tons of gold, alongside its $145 billion in USDT reserves. This revelation confirms long-standing suspicions that Tether is a major buyer of Bitcoin, using freshly minted USDT to pump prices. The strategy is straightforward: mint USDT, buy BTC, sell excess BTC for USD and gold to bolster reserves, then parade those reserves as proof of legitimacy. This creates a circular loop where Tether props up Bitcoin, and Bitcoin’s rising price justifies Tether’s peg. The Mt. Gox Parallel This setup mirrors the collapse of Mt. Gox, the infamous Bitcoin exchange that imploded in 2014 after losing 850,000 BTC. Like Mt. Gox, Tether operates with minimal transparency, refusing independent audits and facing regulatory scrutiny. Posts on X highlight this concern, with users noting Tether’s failure to comply with Europe’s MiCA regulations and its history of printing unbacked tokens. If Tether’s reserves are overstated or its Bitcoin holdings lose value, the entire crypto market could collapse, taking Bitcoin with it. Saifedean Ammous’ Warning Bitcoin maximalist Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard, inadvertently exposed the fragility of this system at Bitcoin 2025. He suggested that Tether’s growing Bitcoin reserves could one day surpass its dollar reserves, potentially revaluing USDT above the dollar. While framed as a bullish prediction, this scenario highlights the absurdity of a stablecoin backed by a volatile asset like Bitcoin. If Tether’s peg breaks, the fallout would be catastrophic, echoing the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008. 5. Institutional Retreat: The Fading “Smart Money” Narrative Bitcoin’s proponents often cite institutional adoption as proof of its legitimacy. But recent data paints a different picture. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $267.5 million in net outflows on June 2, 2025, marking three consecutive days of withdrawals. Since the 2021 hype peak, institutional interest has dropped by over 91%, reflecting growing skepticism. Even the SEC, despite a pro-crypto shift under the Trump administration, remains cautious, hesitating to approve new ETFs from firms like Bitwise and Grayscale due to concerns over fraud protections. The ETF Exodus The steady outflows from Bitcoin ETFs signal that institutions are not “all in” as claimed. The initial FOMO-driven inflows of 2021 have given way to a more sober assessment of Bitcoin’s risks. Volatile prices, regulatory uncertainty, and a lack of clear use cases have eroded confidence. This contradicts the narrative that Bitcoin is a safe haven or a maturing asset class, exposing it as a speculative bubble driven by retail hype. Regulatory Headwinds The SEC’s reluctance to expand Bitcoin ETF approvals underscores the market’s vulnerabilities. Fraud, manipulation, and lack of transparency—issues tied to Tether and Bitfinex—remain significant concerns. Even in a pro-crypto regulatory environment, these structural flaws cannot be ignored, further undermining Bitcoin’s institutional appeal. 6. The House of Cards: Why Bitcoin’s Collapse Is Inevitable Bitcoin’s value proposition rests on three pillars: decentralization, scarcity, and utility. Each is weaker than it appears, and together, they form a house of cards waiting to collapse. Centralization in Disguise Despite its decentralized rhetoric, Bitcoin’s ecosystem is controlled by a handful of players. Tether and Bitfinex dominate liquidity, exchanges like Binance and Coinbase control trading, and figures like Mallers and Saylor shape the narrative. Wallet concentration is another issue: the top 1% of Bitcoin addresses hold over 90% of the supply, undermining the idea of a democratic currency. Scarcity Myth Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap is often touted as a hedge against inflation. But scarcity alone doesn’t guarantee value. Without real-world utility, Bitcoin’s price is driven by speculation, not fundamentals. Tether’s ability to mint USDT and buy BTC artificially inflates demand, creating a false sense of scarcity. Lack of Utility Bitcoin’s use as a currency or store of value is limited. Transaction fees remain high, scalability is a persistent issue, and adoption as a payment method is negligible outside niche communities. El Salvador’s failed experiment and the collapse of Chivo Wallet demonstrate that Bitcoin struggles to gain traction in real-world economies. The Tether Time Bomb Tether’s role as Bitcoin’s primary buyer is the linchpin of this bubble. If Tether’s reserves are exposed as inadequate or its USDT peg breaks, the crypto market will face a liquidity crisis. Bitcoin’s price, propped up by Tether’s printing, would plummet, triggering a cascade of liquidations across leveraged players like Strategy and Twenty One Capital. 7. The Psychological Trap: Why Bitcoiners Are Blind to the Truth Bitcoin’s community, often called “maximalists,” is driven by a mix of ideology, greed, and denial. They view Bitcoin as a rebellion against centralized finance, ignoring the centralization within their own ecosystem. This cognitive dissonance is fueled by charismatic figures like Mallers and Saylor, who promise wealth and freedom while orchestrating speculative schemes. The Cult of HODL The “HODL” mantra—holding Bitcoin regardless of price—encourages blind loyalty over critical thinking. Maximalists dismiss criticism as FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), refusing to engage with evidence of manipulation or fragility. This cult-like behavior mirrors historical bubbles, where investors ignored red flags until it was too late. The Role of Influencers Figures like Mallers, Saylor, and even Bukele serve as influencers, leveraging charisma and media to sustain the hype. Their promises of endless growth and financial revolution obscure the reality of a market propped up by unbacked stablecoins and leveraged bets. 8. Historical Parallels: Lessons from Past Bubbles Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrors historical financial bubbles, from the Dutch Tulip Mania to the dot-com crash. Each was driven by speculative fervor, a lack of intrinsic value, and insider manipulation. The dot-com bubble, for instance, saw companies with no revenue soar on hype, only to collapse when reality set in. Bitcoin’s reliance on Tether’s unbacked USDT and leveraged corporate plays like Strategy and Twenty One Capital echoes this pattern. The collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 is a closer parallel. Like Tether, Mt. Gox was a central player in Bitcoin’s early ecosystem, handling 70% of transactions. Its failure exposed systemic vulnerabilities, and Tether’s current dominance poses a similar risk. If Tether falters, the fallout could dwarf Mt. Gox’s impact, given Bitcoin’s $1.5 trillion market cap. 9. The Endgame: A Scandal of Historic Proportions Bitcoin’s bubble is not just a financial phenomenon—it’s a scandal waiting to unravel. The interplay of Tether’s unbacked stablecoin, insider-controlled wallets, and leveraged corporate plays creates a perfect storm. When the music stops, the consequences will be severe: Retail Investors: Small investors, lured by promises of wealth, will bear the brunt of the collapse. Many have invested life savings, unaware of the manipulation behind Bitcoin’s price. Institutional Fallout: Firms like Strategy and Twenty One Capital, heavily leveraged, face insolvency if Bitcoin’s price crashes. This could ripple through equity markets, affecting broader portfolios. Regulatory Crackdown: A Tether collapse would prompt global regulators to crack down on crypto, potentially stifling innovation but exposing the industry’s weaknesses. 10. Conclusion: Time to Wake Up Bitcoin’s story is a seductive illusion, a carefully crafted narrative designed to enrich insiders while exploiting the hopes of retail investors. From El Salvador’s manufactured adoption to Tether’s opaque reserves, Jack Mallers’ Tether-backed ventures, and Michael Saylor’s leveraged gamble, the evidence points to a bubble built on smoke and mirrors. The decline in institutional interest, coupled with Tether’s central role, signals that the end is near. Bitcoiners may cling to the dream of decentralization, but the reality is a centralized ecosystem controlled by a few powerful players. The largest financial scandal in history is not a question of “if” but “when.” Investors must look beyond the hype, question the narratives, and protect themselves from the inevitable crash.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by RoadToAMillionClub
BTC: Still in the Grip of Wave BBitcoin is holding steady near the same levels seen at the time of yesterday’s update — and so is the structure. According to our primary scenario, we expect the current corrective wave B to complete soon within the blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. Once that happens, a wave C selloff should follow, likely targeting the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323. That said, our alternative scenario (30% probability) remains intact. In that case, the high of blue wave (i) has yet to form — a breakout above $130,891 would confirm that view and open the door to further upside before a correction resumes. 📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by MarketIntel