I WILL RISK BIG FOR THIS BITCOIN BULLISH IDEAWhy this long setup “makes sense”
Retest of a Confluence Zone:
Price Structure: Earlier in the day, BTC was trading below 104,566, then broke higher, printed a small rally up to ~104,900. After that rally, it pulled back down to retest 104,566.
Volume Profile Support (VAL): The short-session Value Area Low (≈104,550–104,600) lines up almost exactly with that horizontal support. When price dips into a VAL and sees buying volume pick up, it frequently “re-rejects” downward and rallies toward the VAH/POC again.
Point of Control (POC) as Magnet:
Notice how the mini-profile’s POC sits around 104,650–104,700. If price is able to hold just above VAL and above 104,566, it often needs to re-test that POC (near 104,650–104,700) before building momentum toward higher value areas (105,000+).
Risk Management:
The stop at ~104,433 is placed just under the previous swing low and under the VAL. Should price break below that, it’s likely invalidating the bullish absorption you want to see here.
Conversely, targeting 105,627 (the next confluence of highs, mini-profile VAH, and the flat top of that small volume profile box) gives you a clean reward, because that level acted as short-term resistance earlier in the afternoon.
15-Minute Candlestick Reaction:
Right at this moment you see a wick dipping into VAL/104,550, followed by a small bullish pin that closes off the low. That’s a sign buyers are absorbing. Once you get a full 15-minute candle close back above 104,566 (preferably with a little body rather than just a wick), that’s your trigger to pull the buy trigger.
3. Step-by-step execution plan
Wait for Confirmation Candle:
Let the current 15-minute candle close (around 9:30 PM on the chart). If it closes entirely above 104,566 (preferably with a bullish body), that validates support/VAL is holding.
Enter Long (Buy) at Market or on a Small Limit Order:
You can place a limit order at 104,566 exactly, or simply buy at market when you see the close. Either way, entry is once the bounce is confirmed.
Set Stop‐Loss:
Hard stop at 104,433 (≈130 pips below entry). This is below the mini‐profile VAL and the very recent swing low on the 15-minute chart.
Technically, any drop below 104,550 would already bug out the mini-profile support, so going a few ticks lower (to 104,433) gives a bit of breathing room without risking too much.
Set Take‐Profit:
Mark your TP at 105,627 (≈1,000 pips above entry). In practice, that level has already shown minor rejection earlier today and lines up with the upper boundary of that small volume‐profile box.
If price can clear 105,627 convincingly, you could even consider a trailing-stop strategy beyond that, but for now, treat 105,627 as your primary R:R target.
Track Price Behavior:
As soon as price moves +50 pips in your favor (≈104,800), consider moving stop to breakeven (104,566). That way you can eliminate risk on the remaining position and let the rest run to 105,627.
If price slices through the POC (~104,650–104,700) with conviction, that often signals enough short‐covering/bull momentum to push toward 105,000+.
4. If the trade goes south…
Invalidation:
Should price break below 104,550 (the VAL) and then keep selling into 104,400–104,350, your stop at 104,433 will get hit. At that point, the little “volume magnet” has failed and sellers are in control.
What to Watch Next:
If your stop is taken out, watch how price behaves around 104,300–104,200 (the next obvious swing low from earlier in the session). That could become the next short idea if bearish volume continues, but only after you’ve cut your losses here.
5. Why the Risk:Reward (≈1:4) is attractive
Risk (~130 pips):
One 15-minute candle’s worth of volatility around this mini-profile level is roughly 50–60 pips, plus some buffer. By placing your stop a bit lower (≈130 pips), you give the trade room to breathe under VAL.
Reward (~1,060 pips):
Getting back up toward the mini-profile’s VAH/POC cluster near 105,600–105,700 is a higher‐probability area for profit, since that zone acted as recent resistance. A ~1,000-pips upside vs ~130 pips downside gives an ~8:1 gross R:R before fees or slippage. Even if actual profit is slightly less, your risk is small relative to potential reward.
6. Key takeaways
Volume Profile + Value Area can help you spot where “big players” have put most of their orders. VAL often acts as short‐term support.
Confluence Zone: The overlap of “horizontal support” (104,566) and the mini-profile VAL (≈104,550–104,600) is what makes this a high‐probability long zone.
Discipline on Stops: Placing your stop below the VAL (104,433) ensures you’re out quickly if that support fails.
Aggressive R:R: Shooting for ~105,627 offers a large reward if price truly wants to re-test the upper volume/value levels.
Confirmation Is Critical: Never enter exactly when price first touches VAL—wait for a full 15-minute candle close back above the support line.
Next Steps
If you are demo-trading this setup: Practice waiting for the candle close, measure your exact pip risk, and note how price reacts when it revisits the POC (around 104,650–104,700).
If you go live: Size your position so that a 130-pip stop risk equals 1–2% of your account. For example, if 1 BTC = $104,000, each pip is $0.10 (on a 0.01 BTC position), so 130 pips = $13 risk. Make sure $13 is ≤ 1% of your trading capital.
That’s the essence of this 15-minute BTCUSD volume-profile long setup. You have a clear entry (≈104,566), a logical stop (≈104,433), and a well-defined profit target (≈105,627). Keep an eye on how price interacts with the mini‐profile Value Area Low and Point of Control—if buyers step up here, you’ll likely see a swift move back toward the 105,600 zone.
Good luck trading! 🚀
