BTC - Continuation of Bull Trap 21.06.2025Hello Friday! Never, ever, ever trade crypto on weekend, but let's hop in!
🔻 What I expect more? Continuation of Bull Trap! (Probability 70/30)
Few Reasons:
Price broke 20 EMA(daily) and is sliding just above the 50 EMA with "dead-cat" bounce attempts.
RSI is going down below 50 — momeentuum is faaadiing.
No signs of some big demand at this level (low volume on small green candles + Iran uncertainty).
Notable, that we are far from any bounce move (which would support re-accumulation).
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Most likely)
Expecting BTC to test the 99.5k zone — this is the key support level becasue of several arguments:
1) 0.886 Fib
2) Confluence with previous horizontal range support
3) 100 EMA
4) Under psychological level 100k
5) RSI needs to cool off before taking higher targets.
If 99.5k broken, next stop is near 88.5k (0.786 Fib)
I wouldn't like to analyse further possible downslide of BTC, so lets stay so far in already negative scenario within 88.5k, but let's keep in mind, that maximum pain we will see near 75k zone.
🟡 Alternative: Short-term Bounce (Probability 30/70)
BTC could attempt bounce towards 105–106.5k (retest of broken structure + 20 EMA resistance)
If this bounce has low volume and rejection near EMAs or RSI stays below 50 , it's a sell opportunity — not a bullish reversal.
✅ Final thoughts for short term: stay away from the market.
From 103.5k I would expect downward continuation toward 99.5k with possible minor bounce attempts along the way.
Wait for strong reversal signal near 100k and enter LONG with tight SL.
Don't trade during the weekend, unless there's a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Have fun!
