Bitcoin - Bears vs Bulls: $100k next?Price recently tapped into a well-defined 4H and daily resistance zone and was met with an immediate rejection. That rejection wasn’t just a reaction, it led to a confirmed market structure shift as price broke the previous low. This transition from higher highs to a lower low signals the first sign of bearish control, flipping the short-term bias and setting the tone for a move lower.
Retest of MSS and Inversion Fair Value Gap
After the break in structure, price retraced directly into the origin of the move, retesting the same zone where the shift occurred. A previously bullish 4H gap has now flipped into resistance, rejecting price perfectly. This inversion, where a bullish imbalance turns into a bearish reaction zone, confirms the change in direction and strengthens the downside narrative.
New FVG as Entry Opportunity
The latest bearish impulse created a clean new fair value gap just above current price. A retest of this gap would offer a high-probability continuation setup, as it aligns with both recent structure and order flow. This zone becomes the critical level for bears to defend, and unless price reclaims it, the expectation remains for continuation toward lower liquidity.
Liquidity Outlook and Bearish Target
Below current price, a large pool of liquidity is sitting just above a major psychological round number. That level hasn’t been swept yet and is a likely downside magnet. With no meaningful support between the current FVG and that draw on liquidity, price is likely to reach for it next. This fits the typical sequence following a market structure shift: rejection, shift, retest, continuation, and liquidity sweep.
Momentum and Contextual Confluence
Zooming out slightly, the current move fits within broader bearish momentum that has been developing across timeframes. There’s no sign of strong bullish absorption, and each push higher has been met with efficient selling. This isn’t a chaotic breakdown, but a controlled sequence of lower highs and lower lows, supported by clean structural shifts and consistent rejection zones.
Conclusion
The chart tells a clear story. A clean rejection from a key resistance zone led to a confirmed bearish structure shift, followed by a textbook retest and fresh fair value gap. As long as price remains below that gap, the setup favors continuation lower, with the nearest liquidity pool being the most likely draw. This remains a high-probability bearish scenario until proven otherwise by a shift back above invalidation levels.
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