BTC Target Confluence Zone at \$130K–\$134K – Caution on Alts inHello everyone,
With U.S. stock indices at all-time highs, interest rate cuts on the horizon, and recent stablecoin-related news, Bitcoin is capitalizing on this period of mild euphoria.
Since June 27th, we've also finally seen the beginning of a mini altcoin bull run, with ETH leading the charge by gaining strength against both the USD and BTC.
After several false starts—what some might call mini alt seasons—it's important to remain cautious with altcoins, especially for latecomers who might be entering too late in the cycle.
I’d like to highlight a realistic confluence zone of three technical targets in the \$130K to \$134K range for Bitcoin:
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1 – Daily Target via 1.618 Fibonacci Extension**
This Fib is drawn from the January 21st, 2024 ATH (\$109.5K) to the April 9th, 2025 low (\$74.5K).
The 1.618 extension lands at **\$131.3K**.
Currently, we’re consolidating around the 1.27 Fib level, which validates this setup.
1 - H4 Target via 2.618 Fibonacci Extension**
This Fib is drawn from the May 23rd, 2025 high (\$111K) to the June 22nd, 2025 low (\$98.2K).
The 2.618 extension points to **\$134K**.
Price has been stalling at the 1.618 extension over the past couple of days, further confirming this Fib level.
3 – Daily Target at the Top of a Broadening Ascending Channel**
The upper resistance of this channel—currently above price—varies depending on the momentum of the next move. Interestingly, it aligns with the Fib extensions above, creating a strong confluence area.
These are, of course, theoretical targets. But during **price discovery**, Fibonacci extensions remain one of the few tools professionals and algorithms rely on to set take-profit levels.
Moonboys calling for a massive altseason might change their tune quickly if BTC gets violently rejected at this confluence zone. Without protection, alts could easily crater—**leaving some portfolios with a second hole**…
To cover all angles, I’ll state the obvious: on the daily and weekly charts, BTC has been steadily grinding within a bullish ascending channel—marked by long, frustrating retracements.
This has allowed the market to build solid strength for what could become a euphoric end to the cycle. BTC might even break out above the channel like it’s textbook.
However, upside breakouts from rising channels are often punished later with sharp reversals in the opposite direction—and that “opposite” could take us all the way back to **\$90K**. A move like that would likely erase the entirety of the altcoin rally in just a few candles.
(And maybe finally fill my forgotten buy orders in the basement 😉)
BTC will survive no matter what, but I’m more concerned about **collateral damage**—and having enough **dry powder** for lowball buy orders, if that fits your strategy.
**RSI**: Nothing to report. No bearish divergence on the D1 or H4.
This is a **short-term bullish outlook** with **realistic targets**, but it’s also a reminder: take some profits while you can—before the market takes them for you (again).
Have a great week
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Chart on BTC/USDT Spot on Binance 1day candle TF
