BTCUST trade ideas
BTC 4H. $104K or Bust — Critical BTC Moment! 06/13/25BINANCE:BTCUSDT remains in a sideways range between $110,336 – $101,297. The main trading volume is concentrated around $103,907.
Recently, the price reached the upper boundary of the range at $110,336 and sharply declined from there — confirming the strength of resistance. The drop was intensified by negative geopolitical news (Israel–Iran tensions).
As a result, BTC retraced into the $104,185 – $101,297 demand zone — a potential area where buyers might step in again.
Personally, I expect one more dip into the $104,185 – $101,297 range to test the strength of buyers.
⚠️ If negative news continues, a breakdown below $100,349 and a new local low is possible.
DYOR.
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-06-20 19:45 UTCBTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-06-20 19:45 UTC
💡 Trade Setup Summary
Pattern Detected: Bullish Hammer at local bottom
Confirmed by bullish candle close above pattern high
Volume Confirmation:
Volume Flow Analysis → Increasing OBV
Current Volume = 5.17, which although lower than the short-term mean, is paired with a positive trend
Order Book & Whale Confirmation:
Whale Bids > 2 BTC detected: 1 order, 3.54 BTC
Order Book Imbalance: 36.84% favoring buyers
Technical Indicators :
✅ Oversold region confirmed (likely RSI < 30, inferred by engine)
✅ Bullish pattern with volume trend confirmation
✅ Order book imbalance > 2%
✅ Whale bid presence
✅ Market pressure shows buyer dominance
✅ OBV increasing
Entry Price: 103146.58
Target (TP): 105646.58
Stop Loss (SL): 102146.58
Risk:Reward Ratio: ~2.5:1
BTC – 15min Reversal Structure & Fibonacci ReclaimWe’re currently witnessing a potential short-term reversal on BTC’s lower timeframe after a volume-supported breakdown and sweep of local lows.
🔍 Key Observations:
Price swept liquidity at local lows (~103,929.27)
Entered into a clear reaccumulation box with responsive buyers
Volume profile shows prior POC just above – room for fill
Fibonacci retracement aligns with key structure:
0.5 = 104,372.94
0.618 = 104,268.23
1.0 = 104,816.60 (final high target for this impulse)
📈 Potential Play:
Entry Zone: Just above the sweep candle (104,100–104,200)
Target 1: 0.382 at 104,477
Target 2: 104,816.60
Invalidation: Close below 103,926
🧠 Mindset:
This is a classic liquidity sweep → reaction → reclaim pattern. If BTC flips the 0.5 level with strong momentum, a short squeeze toward the 104.8K area becomes likely.
Great opportunity for scalpers or day traders.
Let me know if you want this turned into a long-form breakdown or sent in another format.
BTC Weekly BOX breakout or possible false breakoutWe have BTC setting up a nice weekly consolidation box, with candle closes consistently holding above the previous weekly ATH resistance. Multiple Doji closes indicate consolidation and compression. At the bottom of the box, we’ve seen strong reversals with high volume. The 4H chart is consistently defending the 200 EMA, supporting the idea that the daily trend remains strong — although direction is currently unclear.
Is distribution happening? It’s not easy to short just yet. We might still see a false breakout, position filling, and then a return to the box range. I’d be interested in a swing short if that happens — especially if the weekly candle closes with high volume and signals a reversal, indicating a potential bearish shift on the daily chart. Let’s keep in mind that June is historically weak, especially during the last two weeks.
On the long side, I’ll only be looking for entries after a daily break of structure (BOS).
Does not need to goes to the highs, we could drop below 100K if we lose box range low with a MSB.
Interesting days ahead — patience is key, as we currently don’t have many high-probability setups.
HTF Consolidation: Key Alerts, Vital Supports, FOMC & Geopolitic__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
__________________________________________________________________________________
Momentum: Strong bullish signal across sector indicators (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator), especially on daily and 12H. Momentum remains robust within consolidation.
Support/Resistance : Key zone at 104429–102600 (short- and long-term pivots); major resistance at 106000–109950.
Volume : Normal to high, with peaks at major supports on 1H/2H (potential sign of absorption/defensive buying).
Behavior across timeframes :
ISPD neutral on most TFs, only 2H gives a buy signal (possible tactical bounce).
All LTFs (≤1H) are down, HTFs (≥1D) are up → corrective structure, awaiting catalyst.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Strategic Summary
__________________________________________________________________________________
Overall bias : Underlying bullish, but market consolidates on key technical zones.
Opportunities : Swing buy at 104429/102600, tight stop below 100k, take profit 109950+.
Risk zones : Clear break below 100350/100000 invalidates the setup (risk-off or tactical short).
Macro catalysts : FOMC, Iran–Israel tensions, economic calendar (monitor Jobless Claims, Crude, Fed statement).
Action plan :
Capital preservation before FOMC.
Tactical entries only on key support; tight stops, prudent sizing.
No breakout chasing without macro/fundamental validation.
Hedge/volatility play via options possible (IV low, caution for post-event spike).
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
__________________________________________________________________________________
1D/12H/6H :
Supports: 104429, 102626, 100353.
Resistances: 106000–109952.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = Strong Buy.
No extreme volume, ISPD neutral; mature range.
HTF consolidation, bullish underlying momentum.
4H/2H :
Key zone at 104429–102600 (technical defense); 2H is the first true behavioral buy signal.
Very high volume at support, favoring a "spike bounce" scenario.
“Up” confluence on Risk On / Risk Off Indicator, volume, and ISPD for short-term bounce.
MTFTI: 2H is one of the “Up” TFs; LTFs remain Down.
1H/30min/15min :
Structurally bearish, elevated volume (absorption/protection) on 1H.
No behavioral excesses.
Intraday weakness but supports tested and defended.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro / Fundamental analysis
__________________________________________________________________________________
Market in wait-and-see mode : FOMC upcoming, no hike expected but high impact from tone/forward guidance (increased volatility risk).
Geopolitics : Iran–Israel escalation, risk-off climate, nervous risk assets.
On-chain : Supports tested (STH ~97.6k). Persistent LTH accumulation. Low option IV → underpriced volatility risk.
Risk/Reward swing : 2:1/3:1 buying 104429–102600, stop < 100k, take profit 109950+.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Final synthesis: Bias, Opportunities, Risks
__________________________________________________________________________________
Directional bias : Bullish on HTF, neutral/undecided on short-term. Wait-and-see until strong catalyst confirmed (FOMC, geopolitical de-escalation).
Opportunities : Tactical buy on supports, profit-taking on resistance or confirmed breakout.
Risks : Invalidation below 100k; sudden spike in FOMC/Israel–Iran escalation = risk-off or selloff.
Recommended action : Protect capital before FOMC. Swing tactical entry only on confirmed support. No breakout chasing without macro validation. Leverage potential post-FOMC vol spike via options.
BTCUSDT Long-Term Roadmap: From Capitulation to a $310K BreakoutAfter a confirmed breakdown from both the ascending trendline and the horizontal support near $110,000, BTCUSDT has entered a bearish phase. However, the projected green candles in your forecast suggest a long-term recovery structure—a potential accumulation phase, followed by a breakout cycle toward a new all-time high at $310K.
📈 Long-Term Phases in the Projection:
1. Phase One: Capitulation & Accumulation (~$65K–$90K)
BTC breaks down below $100K, potentially finding support between $65K and $90K.
This becomes a classic accumulation zone, where smart money begins to position.
Volatility decreases, and price action flattens while volume builds.
2. Phase Two: Recovery & Structure Break (~$105K–$110K reclaim)
Price reclaims the broken support at $105K–$110K, now acting as resistance.
A successful flip of this level into support signals the start of a new bullish cycle.
Market sentiment starts to shift from fear to cautious optimism.
3. Phase Three: Expansion Phase ($110K → $180K)
Once past $110K, BTC enters a momentum-driven rally.
Important psychological levels like $120K, $150K, and $180K are reached.
Institutions and retail FOMO begin re-entering the market.
4. Phase Four: Mid-Cycle Reaccumulation (~$180K–$210K)
BTC consolidates in a wide range, forming a reaccumulation base.
This becomes the launchpad for the final parabolic leg upward.
Market disbelief turns into euphoria.
5. Phase Five: Parabolic Rally to $310K
Once $230K–$250K resistance is cleared, BTC enters parabolic mode.
Targeting the macro top at $310,000, aligning with a future cycle peak (likely post-halving cycle).
Could happen within 12–24 months, depending on macro and cycle momentum.
🔍 Key Technical Conditions to Watch:
Successful reclaim of $110K on high timeframe (weekly close)
Formation of a higher low above $90K
Volume confirmation during breakout of $150K and $180K
Break and hold above $230K confirms macro breakout
BTCUSDT Re-Test Complete Bullish Continuation Back in PlayAs anticipated in the previous analysis, BTC has successfully completed the projected retest of the $100,000–$101,000 zone. The price action within this region confirmed strong demand and validated it as a key structural support.
With the retest fulfilled and buyers stepping back in, the bullish continuation structure remains intact. We now shift focus toward the next upside targets around $123,420, $136,000, and $149,450, which form the anticipated confluence resistance zone for this current bullish cycle.
So long as price continues to hold above the $100K structure, market sentiment remains constructive. Any decisive break below this zone would warrant a re-evaluation of the short-term bias.
Stay sharp and manage risk accordingly. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
BITCOIN BEARISH SETUPTechnical Analysis Summary:
Pattern Formation: The chart shows a descending triangle pattern with double tops, indicating bearish pressure at resistance levels.
Breakdown Confirmation: Price has broken below a key ascending trendline (shown in dashed line) and retested the breakdown area, forming a bearish rejection (highlighted red zone).
Key Zone: The price is currently trading around $105,075, just under the previous support-turned-resistance zone (~$106,000). This confirms a failed bullish structure and strengthens the bearish outlook.
Targets:
First Target: Around $101,000–102,000, aligning with the next visible support zone.
Second Target: Around $97,000–98,000, which is a major support / key zone based on prior structure.
Bias: Bearish in the short term, as long as price remains below the $106,000 resistance zone.
Trade Setup Outlook:
A short position is implied by the arrows.
Best entries are around retests near $105,500–106,000 with stops above the recent highs (~$107,000).
Conservative profit-taking at the first target, with extended TP near the key support zone.
Bitcoin to revisit $100k | Summer price target = $120kGeopolitical tension is causing fear in the markets. Today, Bitcoin fell from $107.7k to current price $105k with no sign of buyer support whatsoever, printing 11 consecutive H1 red candles intraday. Like a hot knife through butter.
At $105k, there is very little support. Sell volume absolutely overshadowed the tiny buy volume. Bulls have yet to close a green candle. I believe in the next few hours Bitcoin will be trading at $104k, followed by the first stop $102k.
$102k can serve as an entry point, depending on how price reacts. $100k is the optimal entry point for maximum profit, after mass liquidations. Retail traders are confident that the liquidity hunt is over after the initial tap, placing stops and liquidation levels at $100k.
Invalidation level will be beyond the 200SMA. The 200SMA have historically proven itself time and time again as a safe zone during rallies after golden crosses.
Bitcoin Retests Broken Channel | Bounce to $110k?Bitcoin is currently retesting the broken downward channel. This selloff was a market shock reaction due to Israel's airstrikes on Iran. Price found support around $103k, at the daily timeframe 50SMA. The daily 50SMA also served as support in the previous drop to $100k last week.
In the chart's red circle is likely where many long leveraged positions had their stop losses or liquidation levels. We can safely assume this event was a liquidity hunt as Bitcoin remains strong above $100k. A healthy pullback to retest.
Historically, we have seen similar market shock selloffs like this. One example is the 1st of October 2024 Iran strikes on Israel. Bitcoin crashed 5% from $63k to $60k. What followed after was a recovery to over $100k, never seeing $60k again.
Will Bitcoin recover?
We still have multiple bullish developments. Institutions are becoming increasingly interested in Bitcoin, the US Bitcoin reserve, SEC x Ripple case settlement, SOL ETF approval, Fed rate cuts, among others.
Provided that the conflict does not escalate, once the market panic reaction is over, we can expect a healthy bullish continuation, as long as Bitcoin remains above $100k.
We also have a massive pool of short liquidity above $111k. Once we break above this level it will be a short-squeeze to $120k.
BTC: Scalp Long 18/06/25Trade Direction:
Long BTC Scalp BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
Risk Management:
- Risk 0.1% (very low risk due to market conditions)
- Target approx 0.5% gain
Reason for Entry:
- 0.618 retracement
- Sweep of recent low
- M30 Fair Value Gap tapped (partially mitigated earlier)
- Multi time frame Oversold
- Market structure holding key support level
Additional Notes:
- Confidence level low low likely hood this succeeds but trading my plan
- Very cautious trade in a volatile unpredictable market environment
Trendline Break Retests: The Setup Nobody Talks AboutHello, Traders! 😎
It’s one of crypto's most overlooked yet commonly recurring structures: the trendline break and retest.
You’ve probably seen it without even realizing it. A clean trendline gets broken, price pulls away, and then, quietly, almost politely, comes back to “kiss” the line before taking off again. Or dropping.
That’s the retest. And in the chaotic crypto world, where hype often drowns out structure, this simple behavior deserves more attention.
🔍 First, What Is a Trendline Really?
A crypto trendline connects key highs or lows on a chart, not to predict the future, but to help visualize the mean price trendline: the market's directional bias. In rising markets, we draw support lines connecting higher lows. In falling markets, resistance lines link lower highs.
Learning how to draw trendlines in crypto properly is a skill in itself. Use wicks or closes? Log scale or linear? Everyone has a method, but consistency is key. If you’re unsure, zoom out and let the chart speak first. But once that line is broken, something changes.
🧠 Why Breaks (Alone) Are Not Enough
In theory, a break of the trendline means momentum has shifted. But in practice? Breaks happen all the time in crypto; many are fakeouts or short-lived. That’s where the trendline break and retest come in. It’s the market asking: “Are we done with this trend?”
Retests often create the cleanest entries for trend continuation, not because they guarantee success, but because they offer structure. They provide a technical “moment of truth” when buyers or sellers show their true strength. And if the retest holds? The move that follows tends to be more confident and less noisy.
📐 Trendline Break & Retest: Mapping the Larger Structure
Looking across the full BTC/USDT weekly chart, several major shifts can be framed through the lens of trendline crypto behavior, particularly the classic sequence of break → retest → continuation.
🔻 2021–2022: Macro Breakdown
After the bull run to ~$69K in 2021, Bitcoin started forming a descending series of lower highs, which gave rise to a macro-level downward trendline — a key reference point for many traders at the time.
🔴 Upper Zone: Failed Retest Cluster
The upper horizontal band (~$47K–$52K) highlights a zone where BTC repeatedly attempted to reclaim the broken structure. Each time the price rallied into this region, sellers stepped in, forming local highs and multiple failed retests (marked with red circles). This wasn’t just resistance — it was a battleground where buyers tried to flip the trend… and couldn’t. This behavior often signals a trendline break rejection, where the market tests the underside of prior structure, then resumes the existing trend.
🔴 Lower Zone: Breakdown and Retest That Held
The lower zone (~$28K–$32K) was formerly a strong support area during mid-2021. Once it was broken in early 2022, the price returned to retest from below, failing to reclaim it, confirming it had turned into resistance. This is a textbook example of trendline retest turned supply, and after the failed reclaim, BTC slid further into the ~$16K range.
✂️ Late 2023: The Breakout
In late 2023, BTC finally broke above the descending trendline, confirming a long-term shift in momentum. Importantly, this wasn’t just a clean breakout. The market returned shortly after to retest the broken trendline, around the $42K–46K range, forming a consolidation zone.
🟩 And Then Came the Retest from Above
Let’s fast-forward to early 2024. After months of chop, Bitcoin finally breaks through that upper red zone (the same one that previously acted as resistance and rejection city). But here’s the part many miss:
It didn’t just moon.
It came back.
Look closely at the green zone around ~$46K–$48K, the same area where BTC got rejected multiple times in 2021–2022. And now? Price pulls back, taps that level from above, and holds.
That makes this zone so interesting: 👉 It’s a classic “retest from the other side”, where former resistance becomes support. The market is saying: “This level matters. Let’s make sure it holds before we go further.” It’s a quiet confirmation and a great example of how crypto trendlines and price memory shape behavior, even months or years later.
🪞 It’s Not Just About Lines — It’s About Psychology
Why does this pattern repeat?
Because breakouts are emotional.
They create FOMO. Traders rush in. Then the market pauses, tests your conviction, and shakes out the impatient.
Retests act like a filter.
They flush out the noise — and confirm who’s really in control.
That’s why drawing trendlines in crypto isn’t just about geometry. It’s about crowd behavior. When enough traders see the same line, and price respects it after the break, it becomes a self-fulfilling zone of interest.
🧭 A Word of Caution
This isn’t a secret formula. Not every trendline crypto setup will play out cleanly.
SOME BREAKS NEVER RETEST.
SOME RETESTS FAKE YOU OUT.
AND SOMETIMES, THE LINE YOU DREW ISN’T THE ONE THE MARKET IS ACTUALLY WATCHING.
But if you learn to draw trendlines in crypto clearly, stay patient, and observe the trendline break retest behavior, you’ll begin to see this pattern appear again and again. Quietly. Consistently.
It won’t make the headlines like “BTC Hits 100K,” but it might just tell the story behind that move. This is just one example. In reality, charts are full of these zones. Each one tells a part of the story. And honestly, why not listen?
Bitcoin Breaks 20-Jan 2025 Peak Price, New ATH Next (+Altcoins)Look at this, Bitcoin closed the day exactly above the 20-Jan 2025 high. This day Bitcoin peaked at $110,265, the all-time high before May; yesterday, 9-June 2025, Bitcoin peaked at $110,577.4 but closed at $110,270, five dollars higher. Is this a bearish or bullish signal? What to expect!
Good evening my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, I hope you are having a wonderful day.
This week starts with a bang, a big bang, with Bitcoin doing great. The question immediately arises and I will answer, Will Bitcoin continue growing? Or, will Bitcoin produce a retrace?
I can tell you with 100% certainty that Bitcoin will continue to grow. I can support this statement with data from the charts.
We have hundreds and hundreds of altcoins going bullish, strongly bullish, some coming out of a new all-time low. If Bitcoin was set to crash, these altcoins wouldn't be gaining in bullish momentum, they would be diving deep much lower in order to create new lows. But this isn't what is happening this week, last week and today, no! What we are seeing now is huge growth across the altcoins market and this confirms what Bitcoin will do next.
Needless to say, as Bitcoin trades near its all-time high this is extremely bullish.
If a new all-time high is hit but the action moves lower, say 10-15% lower and remains there, this is bearish and points to lower prices. If the action remains very close to resistance, as it is now, this is ultra-bullish. It is simple do you agree?
Because when there is an incoming drop many people in the know start to sell, so the action never stays at resistance there is always a strong rejection with high bearish volume.
On the other hand, when resistance is challenged and continues to be hit over and over, or the action stays very close, it simply means that people are buying, holding and ready for growth. Bitcoin will continue moving higher mark my words. It is very easy because this has been confirmed long ago.
The bottom was hit 7-April and we are now experiencing long-term growth. As Bitcoin continues to trade near its all-time high, the altcoins will blow up.
When Bitcoin grows 20-30%, some altcoins can grow 100-200%. When Bitcoin grows 50%, some altcoins can grow 300-500%. This is the 2025 bull market.
Thank you for reading.
Give me a boost if you trade and profits from the altcoins market.
Namaste.
P.S. Leave a comment with your favorite altcoins, I will consider the pair for a few full analysis.
Trade Plan Update #12: Navigating BTC’s Critical Levels
*Conflicting timeframes (bullish 1H/Daily vs. bearish 4H/Weekly) are causing choppy price action. Here’s my 2-step game plan: *
📈 Scenario 1: Bullish 1H Play
Key Support Zone: $100,314 - $102,000 (last line of defense for 1H bullish structure).
Trigger: A strong rejection + bullish reversal signal in this zone.
Action: INSTANT LONG ENTRY. No waiting—aggressively capitalize on momentum.
📉 Scenario 2: Daily Structure Fallback
If $100,314 fails:
1- First Demand Zone: $93,300 - $98,000
Watch for a strong bounce → Go long if momentum confirms.
Weak reaction? Hold and monitor lower.
Second Demand Zone: $84,000 - $88,000
Ideal reversal zone for resuming the bull run.
LONG on confirmed strength.
Bull Run Lifeline: $74,600
Non-negotiable: A daily close below this invalidates the bull trend.
✅ Key Reminders:
Patience is strategy: Only act when price confirms your thesis (no guessing!).
Risk first: Define stops for every entry.
Watch price action—NOT hopes.
👇 What’s your take?
Which scenario seems more likely?
Are you adding any key levels?
Let’s discuss below! 👀
BTC at 103K – Bounce or Breakdown?1. Overall Trend:
The chart is currently within a descending channel, indicated by two parallel downward-sloping trendlines. The price continues to fluctuate within the boundaries of this bearish channel.
2. Current Price Action:
BTC has just touched the lower green support zone (around 103,000 – 102,500 USDT) and is showing a slight rebound.
→ This suggests a potential recovery toward the nearest resistance zone.
3. Key Levels:
✅ Nearest Support Zone:
103,000 – 102,500 USDT → The price is currently bouncing from this area. If this zone holds, a short-term rebound toward resistance is likely.
🟥 Nearest Resistance Zone:
105,000 – 106,500 USDT → This zone has repeatedly rejected price advances in the past. Watch closely as price approaches this level.
🟪 Major Upper Resistance Zone:
Around 107,000 – 109,000 USDT → If price breaks above the red zone, this will be the next target.
4. Potential Scenarios:
🔹 Scenario 1 (Bullish):
If BTC holds the 103K support and breaks above the descending channel → price could aim for 105K – 106.5K. If that level is breached, the next target may be 107K – 109K.
🔸 Scenario 2 (Bearish):
If the 103K support breaks → price may fall deeper toward the lower green support zone (around 101,500 – 100,500 USDT).
🎯 Summary:
Short-term trend remains bearish.
Price is reacting at support → a rebound is possible.
Need confirmation from volume and candlesticks to determine if the current downtrend can be broken.
Don't forget to like – follow – and share if you find it useful!”😁😁😁
BTC long if it reclaims or holds ### 🔍 Breakdown of Chart:
* Timeframe: 15m BTCUSDT (Bybit)
* Current Trend: Sharp downtrend from the recent highs
* Zone Marked in Blue: Bullish Order Block / Demand Zone
* Yellow Path: Anticipated reclaim and reversal scenario
* White Curve: Possible double bottom (liquidity sweep)
---
### ✅ Why Long Plan Makes Sense:
1. Demand Zone (Blue Block):
This zone has previously caused a strong bullish reaction. It's likely institutional demand may rest here again.
2. Liquidity Grab Below:
Price might sweep the recent low (creating a trap for shorts) before reclaiming. That’s your “double bottom” logic.
3. Reclaim = Confirmation:
Waiting for a reclaim above the zone before longing shows patience and discipline — a smart move to avoid catching a falling knife.
4. Clear Invalidations:
If price fails to reclaim and breaks below the blue zone with momentum, your setup is invalidated — perfect risk control.
---
### ⚠️ Caution:
* If the red bearish OB above (around 104.6–104.8K) is respected, you might face rejection there. Consider partial profits before that area.
* Use confirmation (like a bullish engulfing, BOS, or FVG fill) after reclaim.
* If breaks blue zone then we might enter short
BTCUSDT: Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals this week have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Bitcoin Technical Analysis (4-Hour Chart)
Price has shown recent volatility, with the MACD indicator hovering near the zero line, indicating balanced bull-bear forces. Resistance sits around $105,000, while price currently oscillates in the $102,000–$103,000 range after a prior pullback.
Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting potential volatility expansion:
Upper band resistance: $105,000
Lower band support: $101,000
The RSI lingering near 50 reflects strong market indecision.
Trading Recommendation:
Initiate light long positions near $101,500 on pullbacks, targeting $103,500.
Trading Strategy:
buy@ 101500–102000
TP:103500-105000
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