Bitcoin and the geopolitical news BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
Advanced Technical Analysis of Bitcoin's Structure – Current Situation on Smaller Timeframes
We notice a symmetrical triangle forming on the small timeframes (1-hour and 4-hour), centered in a critical area. Historically, when this price pattern forms, Bitcoin takes no more than three days to confirm its trend. Therefore, the close of the third-day candlestick will serve as a pivotal turning point.
🔹 Immediate Support: 103,400
🔹 Strong Support: 102,500 — a daily low + institutional liquidity zone
🔹 First Resistance: 105,600 — associated with a convergence of moving averages (EMAs)
🔹 Main Resistance: 106,700 — a crossover with the 200-period moving average, which can be described as the largest psychological barrier
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Possible Scenarios:
☑️ Positive Scenario:
If 105,600 is breached, we are expected to witness an upward movement targeting:
108,000
110,000
118,000 (potentially later)
✅ Catalysts:
Positive US economic data
Regulatory news supporting the markets (such as institutional entry and cryptocurrency regulations)
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⚠️ Negative Scenario:
If the 102,500 support level is broken, the path will be open to:
100,000
99,000 (strong psychological support area)
❗️ Potential Triggers:
Negative inflation data
Major geopolitical escalation (especially if it directly involves the United States)
🔴 Important Note: I'm not a proponent of trading based on news, but I'm including the US factor because it's the only one I consider truly influential in geopolitical analysis.
The US entering a full-scale war would prompt American investors (who represent about 5% of active traders) to withdraw immediately for fear of long-term repercussions.
🔻 America is making history now, and Trump is managing the situation expertly. He is likely to avoid getting involved in long-term conflicts, focusing on concluding deals and wars strategically.
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Current Sideways Trading:
Trading continues between the 103,400 and 105,600 levels within the symmetrical triangle.
The future direction will be determined by the following developments:
If the conflict ends and a deal is reached (especially if Iran surrenders), we will witness a strong upward breakout.
If the United States enters the war directly, we expect a downward breakout to levels that may reach 92,000.
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Technical Conclusion: 💎
Bitcoin is in a critical consolidation phase with a delicate balance between institutional selling pressure at 106,700 and strong buying demand at 102,500.
The next breakout will depend on:
1. A clear breakout of the triangle pattern
2. The strength of the liquidity accompanying the movement
3. Official US developments—regulatory or political
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Important Clarification:
❌ The recent decline is not directly related to the Iran-Israel war. Rather, it came as a result of:
1. Options expiry
2. Trump's statements about the possibility of direct US intervention, with the arrival of an aircraft carrier in the Middle East
🔍 A war between only two parties doesn't worry the market much, but US intervention is the decisive factor.
✅ America alone is the one that moves the markets.
