CADUSD trade ideas
USDCAD → Short squeeze for further declineFX:USDCAD is forming another short squeeze relative to the global price range ahead of a possible decline within the global downtrend.
After breaking through the resistance of the global trading range, USDCAD was unable to continue its upward momentum. The price returned to the range, under strong resistance, and is forming a pre-breakdown base for a possible decline. The trigger in our case is support at 1.3762. The dollar is stagnating, trading below strong resistance. A decline in the dollar could trigger a fall in USDCAD
Support levels: 1.376, 1.3695, 1.3629
Resistance levels: 1.3774, 1.3809
The market structure is quite weak, both globally and locally. In addition, against the backdrop of an expected rate cut, the dollar may continue its downward global trend, which may also affect the price of the currency pair, which has formed a false breakout of resistance...
Best regards, R. Linda!
USD/CAD Breaks Triangle: Bullish Target in SightHello guys!
USD/CAD has broken out of a clear triangle formation, signaling strong bullish momentum. The breakout above the top line of the triangle, supported by earlier bullish divergence, confirms that buyers are now in control.
Triangle breakout confirmed
Strong bullish impulse post-breakout
Retest of the broken trendline expected
Target: 1.38791
A clean retest of the breakout level could provide another entry opportunity before price reaches the target zone highlighted in blue.
USD/CAD – Possible Pullback on the RadarThis pair is forming a potential pullback setup that we’re keeping a close eye on.
The support zone is decent, but not ideal — which means we’ll need to see extra confirmation from both volume and momentum before considering a trade.
As always, every part of the VMS strategy must align before we take action. Until then, it stays on the watchlist.
Discipline over impulse. Patience over prediction.
USDCAD Will Go Down! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USDCAD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.378.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.362 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 4 - 8 AugustMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: BoE Interest Rate, Canada Jobs Data & Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s most critical events driving global markets.
👉 Key topics covered in this episode:
— BoE Interest Rate Decision
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— Corporate Earnings Statements
— Trade Tensions
Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD/CAD Daily - Triple Bottom Breakout PatternUSD/CAD Daily – Triple Bottom Breakout
The USD/CAD pair on the 1D chart has formed a Triple Bottom pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup after a downtrend. This pattern suggests that sellers were unable to push the price below the established support zone on three separate occasions, signaling strong buying interest.
🔍 Chart Highlights:
Three distinct lows at a consistent support level
Strong bounce after each test of support, confirming bullish defense
Neckline (resistance line) successfully broken, indicating a breakout
Price target projected from the height of the pattern added to the breakout level
📈 Pattern: Triple Bottom
📍 Breakout Level (Neckline): Around 1.37800
🎯 Target: Approx. 1.42000
🛑 Invalidation: A daily close back below the neckline
This breakout may indicate the beginning of a bullish trend continuation, with momentum favoring the bulls as long as price holds above the neckline.
USD/CAD Poised for a Bullish Breakout: All Eyes on 1.41
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🚀 **
The BAT formation is checking every box—whether you’re analyzing the correction of point **C from AB** or a deeper retracement of **B from XA**, the technical structure is screaming potential.
📊 **Fibonacci Magic**
We’ve got confluence across key Fib levels, with the final projection targeting **1.41**, a crucial resistance that aligns with multiple technical cues.
📉 **Bearish Trendline AC? Consider It Challenged.**
A decisive breach above the descending **AC trendline** would be a powerful confirmation of bullish momentum—and the market’s intent to rally.
⚠️ **Risk Strategy**
The setup remains valid as long as price holds **above point X**. A protective stop-loss below X keeps the trade clean and controlled.
🎯 **Trade Outlook**
With a solid harmonic base, technical alignment across retracement zones, and trendline pressure building, USD/CAD could be gearing up for an aggressive move north. It’s not just a chart—it’s a story, and right now, the plot points to 1.41.
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USDCAD MM triggered a false breakout to fallMM provoked a false breakout of the resistance range; there is no continuation of the upward momentum. The price has returned to the range and is forming a consolidation, the goal of which may be to accumulate potential for the continuation of the downward movement.
The market has a strong downward trend structure. After a false breakout of resistance, MM has the potential to move the price down. The target is the liquidity area consisting of a cascade bottom: 1.357, 1.355, 1.354.
USDCAD drop to order block?Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USD/CAD Rises to 2-Month HighUSD/CAD Rises to 2-Month High
Today, the USD/CAD exchange rate briefly exceeded the 1.3870 mark – the highest level seen this summer. In less than ten days, the US dollar has strengthened by over 2% against the Canadian dollar.
Why Is USD/CAD Rising?
Given that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday (as expected), the primary driver behind the pair’s recent rally appears to be US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on several countries – including Canada:
→ Despite efforts by Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney to reach an agreement with Trump, no deal was achieved;
→ Canadian goods exported to the US will now be subject to a 35% tariff;
→ The tariffs take effect from 1 August;
→ Goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are exempt.
Media analysts note that the tariffs are likely to increase pressure on the Canadian economy, as approximately 75% of the country's exports are destined for the United States.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
At the end of July, the price formed a steep ascending channel (A-B), with bullish momentum confirmed by a decisive breakout above the 1.3790 resistance level, as illustrated by the arrow:
→ the pullback before the breakout was relatively shallow;
→ the bullish breakout was marked by a long bullish candlestick with a close near the session high;
→ following the breakout, the price confidently consolidated above 1.3790.
Provided that the fundamental backdrop does not undergo a major shift, bulls might attempt to maintain control in the market. However, the likelihood of a correction is also increasing, as the RSI indicator has entered extreme overbought territory.
Should USD/CAD show signs of a correction after its steep ascent, support might be found at:
→ line C, drawn parallel to the A-B channel at a distance of its width;
→ the previously mentioned 1.3790 level, which now acts as a support following the breakout.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDCAD- In the monthly (higher timeframes), USDCAD is bullish.
- In the weekly timeframe, price reaction seems to trace a clear uptrend
- In the daily timeframe, it is also in a clear uptrend but at retracement phase due to a hidden 1 day invalidation.
- With our current 4hr timeframe we are tracing for low risk (15 Pips) high reward of up to 1:15 on the trade.
Potential bearish drop?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is reacting off the resistance levl which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3758
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3816
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3691
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bullish bounce off for the Loonie?The price is falling towards the support which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3758
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3702
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3854
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USD/CAD Ascending Triangle Breakout, Support at Prior ResistanceWhile USD/CAD was one of the cleaner pairs for USD-weakness in Q2, the past month and change has seen a shifting backdrop in the pair.
The 1.3750 level remains key and this was the price that set the low in early-May, leading to a rally up to 1.4000, which sellers defended well. That drove another fresh low but bears suddenly got shy above the 1.3500 level, leading to a pullback in June.
Since then - there's been a build of higher-lows with the trendline produced by the June and early-July swing low bringing another support inflection two weeks ago. And then the rally from that finally led to a break of the ascending triangle formation which had built with resistance at 1.3750.
Now that the USD is pulling back, so too is USD/CAD, and interestingly, this could be one of the more attractive venues for looking at USD-strength continuation scenarios given that recent bullish structure. - js