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Bearish reversal for the Loonie?USD/CAD is reacting off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3692 Why we lik eit: There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.3777 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.3552 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USD/CAD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE Hello, Friends! USD/CAD is trending down which is evident from the red colour of the previous weekly candle. However, the price has locally surged into the overbought territory. Which can be told from its proximity to the BB upper band. Which presents a beautiful trend following opportunity for a short trade from the resistance line above towards the demand level of 1.361. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
USDCAD Is Going Up! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for USDCAD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.356. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.360. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25 12:18 GMT UPDATEUSDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25 12:18 GMT UPDATE Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅1H order block ✅HTF 50 EMA ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be identified ✅15’ order block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
USDCADBank of Canada (BoC) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision The BoC held its key interest rate steady at 2.75% on June 4, 2025, marking the second consecutive hold after a series of cuts totaling 225 basis points since mid-2024. The Bank Rate remains at 3.00%, and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The decision reflects ongoing uncertainty from U.S. trade policies and tariffs, which continue to pose risks to Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook. The BoC emphasized the need to monitor the effects of trade tensions and inflation pressures before making further moves. The next BoC rate announcement is scheduled for July 30, 2025. Federal Reserve (Fed) June 2025 Interest Rate Decision The Fed held its target federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50% in its June 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious, data-dependent stance amid mixed inflation and labor market signals. Recent data showed inflation moderating but still above target, and the labor market softening but resilient, leading the Fed to pause rate changes while assessing incoming economic information. Market pricing indicates a growing probability of a rate cut later in 2025, possibly starting in September, contingent on sustained disinflation and labor market trends. The Fed continues to monitor risks from tariffs and global economic uncertainties. JUNE 18th economic data will be watched by BOC Gov Macklem Speaks and BOC Summary of Deliberations Federal Reserve will update Federal Funds Rate 4.50% 4.50%,FOMC Economic Projections,FOMC Statement and FOMC Press Conference In summary: Both the BoC and Fed paused rate changes in June 2025, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties—trade tensions for Canada and inflation/labor market data for the US. Markets expect potential easing later in the year if conditions deteriorate 1. USD/CAD and Oil Price Correlation Strong Negative Correlation: USD/CAD and oil prices exhibit a strong inverse correlation. When oil prices rise, the Canadian dollar (CAD) tends to appreciate against the US dollar (USD), causing USD/CAD to fall, and vice versa. Reason: Canada is a major oil exporter (over 3 million barrels/day), so oil revenues significantly impact Canada’s trade balance and economic health. Higher oil prices improve Canada’s terms of trade and strengthen CAD. Recent Trends: Although this correlation remains strong, its intensity has somewhat weakened recently due to other factors like global risk sentiment and trade dynamics. Still, oil remains a key driver of CAD strength. 2. USD/CAD and 10-Year Bond Yields Interest Rate Differentials Influence: The difference between US and Canadian 10-year government bond yields affects USD/CAD. A higher US yield relative to Canada tends to strengthen USD versus CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher. Conversely, if Canadian yields rise relative to US yields, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD. Risk Sentiment and Yield Movements: Bond yields reflect economic growth expectations and monetary policy outlooks. Diverging economic conditions or central bank actions between the US and Canada influence these yields and thus USD/CAD. Example: If US yields rise due to Fed tightening while Canadian yields stay stable, USD/CAD may rise. 3. Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Monetary Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decisions are crucial drivers of USD/CAD. Rate Hikes: If the Fed raises rates or signals hawkishness while BoC holds or cuts, USD tends to strengthen against CAD, pushing USD/CAD higher. Rate Cuts: Conversely, if BoC hikes or signals hawkishness and Fed eases, CAD strengthens, lowering USD/CAD. Policy Divergence: Market expectations around these decisions create volatility in USD/CAD. 4. Carry Trade Advantage Carry Trade Basics: Carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher rates to earn the interest differential. USD/CAD Context: If Canadian interest rates are higher than US rates, investors may borrow USD to invest in CAD assets, supporting CAD and lowering USD/CAD. Interest Rate Differentials: The attractiveness of carry trades depends on the interest rate spread between the two countries and market risk appetite. Risk Considerations: Carry trades can unwind quickly during market stress, causing sharp USD/CAD moves. 5. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP Theory: Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is an economic and financial theory that explains the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates between two countries. Key Points of UIP: Definition: UIP states that the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries equals the expected change in exchange rates between their currencies over the same period. In other words, if one country has a higher interest rate, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to the currency of the country with the lower interest rate. Implication: This means investors should expect no arbitrage opportunities from interest rate differentials alone because any potential gains from higher interest rates in one country will be offset by losses from currency depreciation. Example: Suppose the US has a 6% interest rate and India has a 14% interest rate. According to UIP, the Indian rupee is expected to depreciate against the US dollar by approximately 8% (the difference in interest rates) over the investment period. So, although an investor might earn higher interest in India, the currency depreciation offsets the gain. Relation to Law of One Price: UIP is similar to the "Law of One Price," which states that identical goods or securities should have the same price globally when adjusted for exchange rates. Difference from Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP): UIP does not involve hedging exchange rate risk with forward contracts; it uses expected future spot rates. CIP involves using forward contracts to lock in exchange rates, eliminating currency risk. Formula: The expected change in exchange rate ≈ difference in interest rates between two countries. USD/CAD Implication: Traders watch interest rate differentials and expectations to forecast USD/CAD moves, but must consider that other factors (oil prices, risk sentiment) also influence the pair. Summary Table Factor Impact on USD/CAD Explanation Oil Prices Higher oil → CAD strengthens → USD/CAD ↓ Canada’s oil exports support CAD 10-Year Bond Yield Differential Higher US yields → USD strengthens → USD/CAD ↑ Reflects monetary policy and growth outlooks Central Bank Rate Decisions Fed hike > BoC hike → USD/CAD ↑ Interest rate differentials drive flows Carry Trade Higher CAD rates → carry trade inflows → USD/CAD ↓ Investors seek higher yields in CAD Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Interest rate gap ≈ expected exchange rate change Theoretical equilibrium, often imperfect Conclusion The USD/CAD pair is heavily influenced by oil prices, with a strong negative correlation due to Canada’s oil export dependence. Interest rate differentials and central bank policies between the US and Canada also play a critical role, affecting bond yields and carry trade flows. While carry trade strategies can amplify movements, they carry risk during market volatility. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity provides a theoretical framework for exchange rate expectations but is often influenced by other market factors, including commodity prices and risk sentiment. #USDCAD
by Shavyfxhub
USD/CAD H1 | Potential bounce off an overlap supportUSD/CAD is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.3686 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.3633 which is a level that lies underneath anoverlap support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 1.3738 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
USDCAD H4 I Bullish Bounce Off the supportBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.3600, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fib retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.3703, a pullback resistance. The stop loss is placed at 1.3500, a swing low High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
Bullish rise for the Loonie?The price has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3703 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Stop loss: 1.3647 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Take profit: 1.3857 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅1H order block ✅HTF 50 EMA ✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be identified ✅15’ order block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT