CADUSD trade ideas
Trade Idea: Sell USD/CAD **Why Sell USD/CAD?**
**🇺🇸 U.S. Dollar (USD):**
* **U.S. growth is slowing**
→ *Losing steam. A weaker economy means less support for the dollar.*
* **Inflation still above 2%**
→ *Sticky, but not scary. Not enough heat for the Fed to tighten further — dollar stays dull.*
* **Fed is on pause, no rate hikes ahead**
→ *The engine's idling. No fuel to push USD higher.*
* **Market heavily short USD**
→ *Traders are already betting against it — and they might be right. Momentum is down.*
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**🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD):**
* **Oil prices are back above \$70**
→ *Oil is CAD’s lifeline — and it’s flowing again. That props up the loonie.*
* **BoC holding rates with a neutral tone**
→ *Not cutting, not panicking. Steady hands support CAD.*
* **Core inflation still high (CPI-trim \~3.1%)**
→ *Quiet pressure. Enough to keep the BoC on alert — a silent strength for CAD.*
* **More traders turning bullish on CAD**
→ *The crowd’s shifting — and the loonie is starting to feel the love.*
* **CAD still sensitive to risk-off mood**
→ *If markets panic, CAD could slip. But for now, risk is manageable.*
USDCAD early reversal signs📈 USDCAD Analysis – 1H Chart (June 19, 2025)
The USDCAD is showing signs of bullish exhaustion after a strong rally. The price is currently trading around 1.3710, just below the recent local high at 1.37117.
🔹 Bearish Divergence: Price action is forming higher highs, while RSI is forming lower highs — a classic bearish divergence, hinting at potential downside correction.
🔹 Support Zone: A clear demand zone is marked between 1.35800 - 1.36000, which acted as a breakout base and could serve as strong support if the price pulls back.
🔹 Ichimoku Cloud: Price is still trading above the cloud, indicating an ongoing uptrend. However, a potential retest of the cloud support is possible.
🔹 Dynamic Support: The 21 EMA is holding well, and price is currently retesting it.
🔹 RSI: RSI is above 50 but shows decreasing momentum, currently sitting near 59.26 with signal line crossing above at 64.36, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.
📊 Conclusion: The pair is overextended and showing early signs of reversal or correction. A break below the EMA and into the cloud may lead to a pullback toward the highlighted support zone. Watch price action closely for confirmation.
USDCAD – Bullish Reversal After Completed Wave 5 and AO DivergenAnalysis:
The USDCAD daily chart shows a textbook completion of an Elliott Wave 12345 sequence. Wave (5) has just completed, supported by clear bullish divergence on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) – a classic signal suggesting exhaustion of bearish momentum.
What strengthens the bullish reversal bias is the presence of a bullish engulfing candle at the end of Wave (5), right at a key structural low. This candle formation, combined with the divergence, provides strong evidence that a corrective wave (likely Wave A or a larger reversal) may be underway.
🔍 Key Confluences:
Wave 5 ends in a falling wedge structure.
AO shows higher low on Wave 5 compared to Wave 3 → Bullish Divergence.
Bullish engulfing candle confirms momentum shift.
Price action breaking out of the wedge pattern.
🎯 Trade Plan:
I am waiting for a pullback toward the breakout zone to find an optimal buy entry. The ideal entry would be a retest of the bullish engulfing candle low or broken wedge resistance, turning into support.
📈 Targets:
Initial short-term target: ~1.3850 (previous Wave 4 region).
Mid-term potential: ~1.4050 depending on structure development.
🛑 Invalidation:
A daily candle closing back below the low of the bullish engulfing will invalidate the bullish outlook.
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 18 June 2025- USDCAD broke daily down channel
- Likely to rise to the resistance level at 1.3730
USDCAD currency pair recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from the start of May.
The breakout of this down channel follows the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 1.3545 coinciding with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level at 1.3730 (former strong support from May).
USD/CAD(20250618)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
World Gold Council: 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.3642
Support and resistance levels:
1.3778
1.3727
1.3694
1.3590
1.3557
1.3506
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.3694, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3727
If the price breaks through 1.3642, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3590
USD/CAD Faces Rejection at 1.3692 – Downside Risk Toward 1.3597
USD/CAD was rejected at the key resistance zone between 1.36670 and 1.36928, and has since begun pulling back. This reaction comes as price remains within a broader descending channel.
If the bearish momentum continues, the next levels to watch on the downside are 1.36347, followed by 1.35970. A break below those could open the path toward the major support at 1.35402.
🔻 Rejection Zone: 1.36670 – 1.36928
🔻 Support 1: 1.36347
🔻 Support 2: 1.35970
🔻 Support 3: 1.35402
🔻 Trend: Bearish within descending channel
🔻 Timeframe: 4H
This is a technical idea only – not financial advice.
USDCAD SHORT IDEA- USDCAD Is EXTREMELY WEAK AND READY FOR SELLOANDA:USDCAD USDCAD Is extremely weak I expect price to drop hard from here.
TRADE BREAKDOWN
Weekly Trend is Bearish.
Daily Trend is Bearish.
4H Trend is also Bearish.
This is 100% a trend following strategy trade.
The entry is taken on 4H time frame targeting the recent weekly swing low.
This is a 4RR Trade.
The chart showcases the U.S. Dollar (USD) to Canadian Dollar (CAThe price has risen steadily from a low of 1.31512 since early 2024, peaking at 1.47931, with the 200-day EMA (orange line) providing strong support since December 2024. I expect the price to potentially test the resistance around 1.38812 again if the upward momentum continues.
The focus is on the 200-day EMA as a key support level
USDCAD Bearish Bias: Beware Liquidity Traps & Reversal Risks.I'm currently keeping a close eye on USDCAD, which has been in a strong bearish trend. 📉
In this video, I explain how the market is unfolding across both the higher and lower timeframes, and why it’s critical to watch them in conjunction. On the lower timeframes, we often see a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows, as the algos set up a seemingly a smooth trend. But traders should be cautious ⚠️
Why? Because on the higher timeframes, the market can easily pull back, triggering a liquidity hunt. This is often when the algorithm targets stop orders above recent highs, before resuming the trend 🧠💥
While my bias remains bearish, I'm also aware of the risk that the market could shift gears unexpectedly to run stops and shake out weak hands. This concept is fully broken down in the video — with examples of how to spot these traps and prepare accordingly 🎯
USDCAD Buy- Go for buy only when entry setup given
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if you know how
- keep looking for buy even if price goes one more down
A Message To Traders:
I’ll be sharing high-quality trade setups for a period time. No bullshit, no fluff, no complicated nonsense — just real, actionable forecast the algorithm is executing. If you’re struggling with trading and desperate for better results, follow my posts closely.
Check out my previously posted setups and forecasts — you’ll be amazed by the high accuracy of the results.
"I Found the Code. I Trust the Algo. Believe Me, That’s It."
USD/CAD Plunges Towards Initial SupportUSD/CAD broke below key support last week with price attempting to mark a third consecutive weekly loss. A break of multi-year uptrend threatens further losses here with confluent support now within striking distance at 1.3504/23- a region defined by the 1.618% extension of the February decline and the 78.6% retracement of the late-2023 advance. Note that channel support converges on this threshold over the next few weeks- risk for possible exhaustion / price inflection into this zone.
Resistance now back at 1.3720/95 with bearish invalidation steady at 1.3958/77. A break below this pivot zone exposes the 2024 LWC at 1.3360 and the 2023 LWC at 1.3218.
-MB
Short trade 🔻 USDCAD – Sell-side Trade
Date: Monday, 16th June 2025
Session: London Session AM
Time: 5:00 AM
Entry Timeframe: 1Hr TF
Trade Parameters
Entry: 1.35680
Take Profit: 1.34735 (+0.70%)
Stop Loss: 1.35965 (−0.21%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 3.32
🧠 Trade Reasoning
USDCAD has shown sustained bearish momentum on both 1Hr and 4Hr timeframes, with a clear lower high forming beneath the 1.35800 area. This trade was initiated on confirmation of a bearish rejection from a supply zone during the early London session volatility.