TBonds (ZB1!) 4H - Trapped traders on both sides of priceTrade setup
There are trapped traders on both sides of price above monthly highs & lows for TBonds ZB1! on 4H timeframe.
When price comes back to either of these zones - these trapped traders will want to exit - giving us an exit!
Risk management
1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free
2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even
3) Close trade at 3R
4) Winner = 1.75R
Strategy
Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY (if trading DXY or an uncorrelated instrument, ignore the correlation)
AND
Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders
AND
Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss
AND
Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation
ZB1! trade ideas
Adding Instruments to TradingView Chart to Track CorrelationsQuick Tutorial video to show how I add and use other instruments like DXY and ES1! to track correlations across markets.
These correlations are a powerful confirmation to help identify behaviour across markets, to give confident in the forex or futures instrument you are trading.
I briefly mention Support & Resistance zones in this video. You can learn how I produce them in the recording of my recent live streaming class >>HERE<<
What is happening in interest rates market? ExplainedI got a few questions about interest rates this week. Well, I don’t understand why people are waiting for some disaster in this market. Commercials are selling 10-year Nonets and buying 30 year Bonds. That means smart money expects that short-term rates are going to go down and long-term rates are going to stay where they are. This is a bullish yield curve development and a normal market. However, it doesn’t mean a huge rally is about to start in Bond market. It will take time. Short-term rally? – Well, possibly if on Monday we get above Friday’s high. But be realistic about your potential targets.
Bond Pong. Like Beer Pong With Less BloatingMost retail futures traders hang out in the stock indices, metals, or energy primarily. This makes sense as those markets move on a daily basis. But tonight, we'd like to make a case for looking at interest rates products, specifically the 30Y bond. As volatility picks up, the bonds haven't really kept pace and instead have stayed within defined ranges, making for a good case for some back-and-forth action.
For the past several weeks, a well defined channel in the 30Y Bond (ZBZ2020) has formed with a one point range between 176 and 177.
We're buyers at the bottom of the channel at 176 and sellers and the top at 177. It's a game of pong. What's constructive about this chart is that we have bumpers on either side of the channel in the form of a bid zone at 175 and an offer zone at 178. So we can scalp the channel and then look to add on a break or stop and wait for the level.
Our current position (CurPos) is flat as price is in the middle of the channel. We'll update this idea on our next entry.
Note: the ZN chart (10Y Note) looks similar and is 1/2 the size roughly on a per-tick-basis.