Wheat - Time for a choiceWheat has failed 4 weeks in a row to break the 525 price barrier - the weekly MA20 which is in negative direction! If we look at the shape it seems that we will head up, but there are several reasons why we should consider shorting:
Weekly MA 20 just above 525 with negative direction
Daily MA 50 just above 525 with negative direction
We are in decline on the monthly charts
1H, 2H and 4H chart overbought
Sell at 525 $
SL - 530
Target 485 $
Timeframe 2 weeks!
XW1! trade ideas
December Wheat Bullish Gartley?December Wheat may have found a reversal point just above the S1 pivot at 520. Upside target for bulls is crossing Pivot at 548'7 and heading for the 20 day moving average at 560. If this reverses then sell target for bears is double bottom at 491'6. Low world supplies may help this move up.
WHEAT FUTURES, 1D, CBOTTrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 572
Stop Loss (SL) : 587.5
Take Profit (TP) : 534, 505.25
Description
ZW formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (572) and place stop after 0.618 level (587.5). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (534) and 505.25
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $48000
Risk Management (1%) : $480
Position Sizing
$0.25 = +-$ 12.50 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.82/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $15.5 = -$775/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 2 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $38 = +$1900 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $66.75 = +$3337.5 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$3.61
Loss = -$496
Gain#1 = +$588
Gain#2 = +$912
Total Gain = +$1500
Risk/Reward Ratio = 3.35
WHEAT FUTURES, 1D, CBOTTrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 573.75 (573’6)
Stop Loss (SL) : 588.75 (588’6)
Take Profit (TP) : 521, 479.5 (521’0, 479’4)
Description
ZW formed Double Repo Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Limit at 0.382 Level (573.75) and place stop after 0.618 level (588.75). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (521) and 479.5
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $150000
Risk Management (1%) : $1500
Position Sizing
$0.25 = +-$ 12.50 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.82/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $15 = -$750/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 2 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $52.75 = +$2637.5 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $94.25 = +$4712.5 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$3.61
Loss = -$480
Gain#1 = +$820
Gain#2 = +$1920
Total Gain = +$2740
Risk/Reward Ratio = 4.86
Wheat futures..Getting the timing right when attempting to trade alongside the commercial hedgers considered the smart money is no easy task, to say the least. When they are heavily short it can still take weeks for that asset to start falling in price and of course they do make mistakes, and vice versa when long.
And so assume nothing..Use stops !!