DOW ON ROUTE TO Recovery?As bids recapture the huge washout on Friday due to missiles in the sky. The market was due to ignore news and hope that it was over. Now we wait for Powell and Retail sales
YM2! trade ideas
Dow Futures (YM) Elliott Wave View: Wave 4 Correction UnderwayThe rally in Dow Futures (YM) that began from the April 7, 2025 low remains intact. It is unfolding as a five-wave impulse pattern according to Elliott Wave analysis. Starting from that low, wave 1 peaked at 39,649. A corrective pullback in wave 2 followed which found support at 36,922. The Index then resumed its upward trajectory in wave 3, which itself subdivides into five smaller-degree waves. As shown on the 1-hour chart below, wave 3 reached its high at 43,316. The market is now experiencing a pullback in wave 4.
Wave 4 is taking shape as a double three structure, a corrective pattern characterized by multiple sub-waves. From the wave 3 high, wave (a) declined to 42,518, followed by a wave (b) rally that topped at 42,944. The subsequent wave (c) dropped to 42,223, completing the first leg of the double three, labeled wave ((w)). The Index then rallied in wave ((x)), peaking at 43,069. Then it turns lower in wave ((y)), which also unfolds as a double three. Within this structure, wave (w) ended at 42,424, and a corrective wave (x) rally concluded at 42,860. The Index is now expected to extend lower in wave (y) of ((y)), targeting the 41,297–41,972 range. This decline should finalize wave 4, setting the stage for a potential wave 5 rally to new highs.
ES1, NQ1 & YM1 Daily Trade SetupsIn this update we review the recent price action in the emini S&P SP500, Nasdaq & DowJones futures contracts and identify the next high-probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target. To review today's video analysis, click here!
The 10 probabilistic outcomes of any given trade ideaOutlined below, I have come to the conclusion that there are 10, most probable trade outcomes of any given trade idea.
After seeing these outcomes, one can see what outcome is the most challenging for a trader to handle. Everyone is different and can tolerate different scenarios.
YM ShortLooking for a trade reversal and we didn't had that then the market retrace at the New York open highs the I was looking for a trend continuations then the market took the highs and continue the trend to the down side hitting the tp for a 1:2 RR.
Dow Futures (YM) Set to Wrap Up Wave 3 SoonSince reaching its low on April 7, 2025, Dow Futures (YM) has shown signs of recovery. The Index has initiated a rally that requires further development to confirm whether the April 7 low will hold as a significant bottom. To establish this, the Index needs to either achieve a new all-time high or complete a clear five-wave structure from the April 7 low. Either of these developments would significantly reduce the probability of the Index undergoing a larger double correction. Currently, the rally from the April 7 low is in progress and appears to be forming an impulsive structure. An impulse is typically a strong bullish signal in technical analysis.
From the April 7 low, the rally has unfolded as follows: wave 1 peaked at 39,427. A corrective wave 2 then followed which ended at 36,882. The ongoing wave 3 is subdividing into a smaller-degree impulse, indicating continued upward momentum. Within wave 3, wave ((i)) concluded at 41,140, and the subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 37,998. The advance in wave ((iii)) reached 42,976, with the corrective wave ((iv)) bottoming at 41,236. Currently, wave ((v)) is forming as an ending diagonal, a pattern often signaling the final stage of a move. As long as the Index remains above 41,238, expect one more push higher to complete wave ((v)), which should also finalize wave 3 in the higher degree. Following this, the Index is anticipated to experience a larger-degree wave 4 pullback, likely unfolding in a 3, 7, or 11-swing corrective pattern, before resuming its upward trajectory.
Dow Industrials Monthly ButterflyThis one is better than Nasdaq, has indicator divergence as well and is earlier
Possibility for +20% correction from here
Dow Jones Short Trade Idea 8:1 1000 tick OpportunityI am currently short Dow Jones aiming for a home run trade that I have been waiting to set up for days now.
My thesis:
Rising wedge into the 80% pullback of the Daily Doji bar
Mean Reversion around March FOMC of 41,155
Break of the support zone of 42,000
If today will be the day it engulfs then I will probably hold all day short
If I am wrong, then price will find support somewhere and bounce, stopping me out. I am willing to try for this idea.
Support and resistance zone: 42278-42321
Hello, traders.
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Have a nice day today.
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(YM1! Chart)
OBV High indicator point: 42321
OBV Low indicator point: 42278
Accordingly, if it falls below 42278, it is highly likely to fall again around 42211.
If it receives support at 42321, it is likely to show an upward trend.
At this time, the resistance zone is 43263-43628.
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If you look at the 30m chart, the HA-High indicator is located near the OBV High indicator point.
Therefore, if there is resistance near the HA-High indicator, there is a high possibility that it will fall to the HA-Low indicator.
The HA-Low indicator point is currently formed at the 42211 point.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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June Gameplan Rough Estimation Dow Jones Island ReversalThis is just my rough draft estimation on what I am thinking Dow Jones will do in June.
I am going to sit out the first week to gather data and let the market show its hand to me first.
I have two key levels marked using the weekly candle of April 7th.
The 80% retracement and the candle open.
I am thinking the first week of June to be a sideways candle of sorts to have four choppy weeks up high. Then two consecutive weeks of dump down into 37,500 followed by another monster bull candle to engulf forming the W pattern
DJIA — Setting Up for Breakout and New ImpulseThe Dow Jones Index is approaching a critical resistance zone. After a deep V-shaped recovery and clear bullish structure, price is preparing for a breakout.
Chart shows a clean long entry with a stop below the recent consolidation. A break and hold above 45,000 could lead to a move toward 46,000, and if momentum holds — up to 49,300.
Partial profit-taking levels:
— Target 1: 45,225
— Target 2: 49,380
Fundamentally, US equity markets remain strong, and DJIA may play catch-up after lagging during the last correction.
Bullish Pullback End of Month BuyAfter I thought we would see a sell continuation off of the March FOMC level of 42,155, price continued bullish.
I am using Thursday and Friday's opening price as support for a pullback. 41,912-41,968
I am expecting Wednesday and Thursday to be profit taking, pullback days in an upward trending bias.
This monthly candle is expecting to close near the highs.
The peak formation low formed confirmed higher prices.
Friday, May 30th 500-700 tick Buying Opportunity
Weekly Outlook on Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones 30Expecting range bound consolidations on Index triad. High Resistance. Not expecting any further monthly highs. Want Internal Liquidity which means shorts. But the daily and the weekly are opposing each other.
Next Week Still Bearish Bias Until Ramped Volume Taken OutThe ramped volume accumulation above the monthly open is the target for liquidity. I am going to be looking for a pullback to form the high of week and a continuation of the down move.
Next week is a short week due to the holiday. Therefore, should be a slow drift down.
This monthly bar is forming a market maker cycle. Instead of Wednesday being the midweek reversal, the 20th formed the mid-month reversal back down to where it started. It may even go a bit beyond.
I will be using 150 tick stops and 375 tick targets next week for 2.5R
I probably will take 2-3 trades. I am currently up 8% so far. If I lose the next three then I will close out May up 5%. I am satisfied with that number. If I can win one and lose one, then I will be closing May up 9.5%
Two potential GLOBEX trap plays.Potential GLOBEX trap Identified on the Dow Jones And Nasdaq Futures. Strong Area's of demand, Retracement would give a nice long set-up. Thoughts?
Tutorial On FOMC Support and ResistanceUsing the 8-hour chart on the Wednesday of an FOMC release, I use a purple line on the 10am EST 8-hour candle's open as the FOMC release price point.
I then use a purple highlighter to signal the date of the release.
I have come to the conclusion that the Dow Jones Futures moves and finds support/resistance using the FOMC releases. Nothing else on the chart matters BUT each release.
There are only 2 ways these levels are used.
1. Support and Resistance levels
2. Mean Reversion levels
I have not found a single source on the ENTIRE internet that describes this phenomenon and would like to think I am quite lucky for stumbling upon this observation.
Below are examples of how/what to look for when using these levels.
Step 1:
On the 8 hour chart, mark the 10am EST opening price of that candle with a purple line and highlight
Step 2:
Project it across and see how price reacts. It will either mean revert or bounce from it
It is hilariously funny to me that price stopped dead within a measly 84 ticks away from the DEC 2023 FOMC level before bouncing.
Support and Resistance:
Mean Reversion:
Price mean reverting around the 10am opening price of FOMC Wednesday.
Long Term Short Trade 2025 Open Limit Order 43,275On my long term swing trading account, I will be placing a limit order sell right on the 2025 open at 43,275 and will be using a 1400 ticks stop. I will be using 2 micros and will risk $1400.
I am targeting the two equal lows for around 7000 ticks or $7000. This will be a potential 5 to 1 risk to reward.
I have drawn two candles that I would like to see happen.
Either the market will blow past my stop or continue the downtrend. I am willing to risk an amount to find out.
Will 41,700 Hold for a Pullback?Price has been bearish over the past few days, and I’m watching the weekly open near 41,300 as a potential target for tomorrow. If price breaks beneath the 41,700 range, my focus shifts back to the weekly open. The question now is — are we seeing the start of a deeper dump toward this year’s lows, or just a bullish pullback aiming for the 42,900 zone?
bull push we should see a nice bull push to the upside
Buy Stop : 42,464
Stoploss : 42420
Take Profit: 42552
Pullback monday Follow for fibs and FVG waiting on the gaping that happened today to be filled in the new York session
We are shorting all the way fibs retrace ment 6.18 % should be the first TP
