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AUDUSDU2025 trade ideas

(6A1!) – Bullish Continuation SetupDescription: 6A1! (AUD/USD Futures) is currently coiling inside a symmetrical triangle structure, developing a textbook compression pattern after reclaiming a key low-volume demand zone. The price action shows signs of bullish continuation, supported by structural higher lows and the recent mitigation of a local Fair Value Gap (FVG). Market Structure & Context: After a sharp drop into premium demand, price formed a structural bottom near 0.6500 and began carving out higher lows. Price is now consolidating beneath a descending trend line, forming a symmetrical triangle, typically a neutral pattern but here it follows a strong impulsive move from demand, giving it bullish continuation potential. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed on the most recent impulsive candle and is now being actively tested if reclaimed and held, it could act as a launchpad for upside continuation. Key Technical Levels: Entry Zone: 0.65320 (Break and retest of triangle support + micro demand) Fair Value Gap: 0.65380–0.65440 (needs a clean close above) TP1: 0.65480 (Previous structural resistance) TP2: 0.65670 (Full premium supply mitigation zone) Invalidation: Below 0.65200 (would break triangle and invalidate bullish thesis) Quantitative Confluence: Volume tapering off within the wedge = compression Efficient rejection of thin liquidity zone suggests institutional accumulation Symmetrical triangle resolution statistics historically favoUr continuation of prior move (bullish impulse precedes consolidation) Risk Considerations: FVG rejection could trap breakout traders wait for clear close above + retest CPI/News events during Asia or London may cause fake out wicks — avoid premature entries Final Thoughts: This setup offers a high-probability breakout scenario if price can hold above 0.65320 and reclaim the FVG zone. A clean breakout of the triangle and fair value gap would open the path to premium inefficiency fill around 0.65670. However, a breakdown below 0.65200 flips the script bearish and could target the lower demand block around 0.65000.
CME:6A1!Long
by stakkd
2
Quiet Before the Move — What AUD Options Are Telling UsThe AUD is stuck inside its recent range — trading has gone sideways, and trying to predict a breakout direction ahead of key moves would be premature (for more on the “Suffering Trader” concept, click here ). Price is consolidating just below a cluster of previously opened retail longs. This "failure to achieve" undermines the case of shorting this level right now. So for the time being, I’ll stay in observation mode and watch which side ends up suffering the most. Now, looking at the CME data , there’s been a meaningful inflow in deep-out-of-the-money call options at the 0.665 strike . That’s interesting. Also worth noting: just above, at the 0.67 strike , we saw a similar inflow a couple of days ago — and that portfolio remains static. No repositioning or outflows so far. That silence could mean something. Or nothing — yet. We’re watching closely.
CME:6A1!Long
by ClashChartsTeam
Stuck in a Squeeze, Fade the TopAs the Australian Dollar, a currency traditionally correlated with risk, has been trading in a range since mid-April, fading rallies near the top of that range appears to offer the best odds in the current environment. Here’s the breakdown. Fundamental Analysis The Australian Dollar continues to move without clear direction as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pursues a clearly dovish path. The RBA’s most recent 25bp rate cut, bringing the official cash rate down to 3.85%, was justified by the central bank’s confidence that inflation is returning to target, coupled with lingering global uncertainties. According to the RBA Rate Tracker, markets are now assigning a 70% probability to yet another 25bp rate cut at the next meeting, an outlook that continues to weigh heavily on AUD yields and the currency’s appeal. On the other side of the Pacific, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders do not expect any policy easing from the Federal Reserve before late summer at the earliest. This means the US-Australia interest rate differential is likely to increase, making it even more expensive to hold AUD against the greenback. Compounding the challenges for the Aussie is the ongoing economic slowdown in China, Australia’s largest trading partner. With Chinese demand for commodities muted, there is little external support for the AUD. Technical Analysis Technically, after a sharp rebound in early April, the Aussie has remained stuck in a frustratingly tight range, unable to regain any significant upward momentum. Since its highs at the end of September, the currency is still down almost 7%. Price action has been confined to a broad consolidation zone between 0.6350 and 0.65 USD for over a month, with sellers consistently capping rallies at the upper end. The volume profile analysis reveals a heavy concentration of traded volume in the 0.6440–0.6465 band, reinforcing this area as a significant battle zone where sellers are likely to defend their ground. For the bulls to regain control, a sustained break above 0.6520 would be needed, something that appears unlikely in the current macro context. Sentiment Analysis From a positioning perspective, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that large speculators continue to hold net short positions in the Aussie, signaling ongoing professional bearish bias. Retail sentiment paints a similarly contrarian picture: broker data from FX/CFD platforms indicates a slim majority of retail traders remain long AUD/USD, with some brokers showing more than 70% long positions. This crowded long condition means there is still fuel for further downside, especially if key support levels give way. Notably, retail stop losses are clustered between 0.6400 and 0.6350, and these could act as accelerants if triggered by a downside break. In addition, risk sentiment remains fragile. While the VIX has eased somewhat, it struggles to remain sustainably below 20, a sign that investor nerves are still on edge and defensive flows are likely to persist. Listed Options Analysis The options market continues to reinforce the idea that rallies will struggle to gain traction. Open interest on call options remains heavily concentrated above spot, particularly at the 0.6500, 0.6525, 0.6550, and 0.6600 strikes, creating a robust technical ceiling. This makes it difficult for the Aussie to stage any sharp or lasting rallies. In contrast, open interest on put options is moderate and scattered, with the largest concentrations around 0.6400 and 0.6450, but there is no significant put wall below spot. The put/call open interest ratio is close to parity, indicating a relatively balanced positioning between calls and puts, with no strong directional bias from the options market. Implied volatility for the front month remains elevated around 9.8–10.1%, and the risk reversal remains slightly negative, suggesting a modest preference for downside protection, but markets are not in panic mode. The heavy concentration of call OI above spot still introduces some gamma risk: if the market rallies into the 0.6500–0.6550 zone, a short squeeze could briefly occur, but such moves are likely to encounter renewed selling pressure and fade quickly. Trade Idea With the RBA set to remain dovish, China’s demand subdued, and global risk aversion remaining elevated, the Aussie remains a tactical short on rallies. The macro, technical, and sentiment picture all favor a bearish stance. Entry: Short Australian Dollar (6AM5) on rallies to 0.6440–0.6465 Stop: 0.6520 (just above high-volume node and call OI cluster) Target: 0.6350 (support, stop loss cluster below 0.64) The trade provides a risk/reward ratio close to 2:1, thanks to a tight stop above resistance and a realistic profit target near support. However, the outlook could change if the Fed pivots more dovishly than expected after the recent Moody’s downgrade of US debt. The FX landscape could shift rapidly and trigger a covering rally in AUD/USD. For now, though, the odds favor playing from the short side. We’ll monitor stops closely and be ready to adapt if the macro winds start to shift. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/. This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6A1!Short
by satelysfx
M6A1!.. Updated.. After taking a shot yesterday I pulled the trigger too early.. didnt wait for conformations.. still waiting but very close to the top here. looking for either a candle close out of the trendline or for a clering of the wicks at the top. It hit the wicks already not fully cleared but maybe good enough. Again easy SL above the wicks and ride it down to the FVG thats also the golden pocket fib. Using 2 contracts and will take profit at the 0.5 fib and let 1 run to target .. hopfully
CME_MINI:M6A1!Short
by Lunchable69
2
M6A! short IDEAThis one seems pretty simple.. obviously with the world right now nothing is simple but the idea. So on the 1 Hr we broke Trend retested and back down. also there is a big fair value gap that perfectly lines up with the golden pocket fib that also lines up with the top of the candles from the bottom. Easy SL above the wicks .. you could go higher above the wicks on the left but going above these local wicks would invalidate the trade regardless. 1/8 reward. Well see
CME_MINI:M6A1!Short
by Lunchable69
Australian Dollar Futures: Key Levels and Bullish PotentialToday, we will analyze the Australian Dollar Futures. On the weekly chart, we may already be witnessing the end of the corrective bearish movement, as we have seen a break of the previous lows at 0.6184. Technically, we have also closed above the EMA5 and EMA10, which suggests potential bullish momentum. However, I believe it's still premature to call a long-term bottom just yet. What I would like to see next is a clear and distinct five-wave structure on the daily chart. This would indicate that the price could potentially close the week above the EMA50, currently at 0.6476. If this scenario plays out, I anticipate that the Australian Dollar could start a strong upward rally against the U.S. Dollar, aiming for a target at least around 0.8006.
CME:6A1!
by COLOMBINI-TRADING
1
Australian dollar is on the riseLooks like we have technical sounding off here! Price action has started the higher move. We have an inverted head and shoulders which price action has broken through already and heading higher! Price action is bouncing from a support level, it couldn't break it down, so it is heading higher from it! We have confirmation of higher prices! Trendline break on the lower time frames! Looks like everything is being confirmed for higher prices!!!
CME:6AH2025Long
by stockmarketdaytrader
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 7-11th: AUDUSDAUD | AUDUSD: Look at the Weekly TF. Price is sitting in the +FVG, therefore my bias for the week is bullish. I'm only interested in longs at this point. Should price close hard below the +FVG, then that invalidates my bias. I will start to look for sell setups. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6A1!Long
by RT_Money
Downside Ahead for Aussie - COT Strategy Short DISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy SHORT Australian Dollar (6A) My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6A if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal OI Analysis: Last 3 weeks of price rally has seen OI increasing while the CM's have been getting out of their longs. This is bearish. ADX: Pinch forming. Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for this currency to go down to early October. COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal Supplementary Indicators: POIV, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6AU2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Is Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) on the verge of collapse? This is CoT index of Australian Dollars. As you can see every time Commercials(blue line) are in long term(3-year) negative extreme AND Retailers(green line) are in positive extreme, the asset tanks. The vertical blue lines are the past identical situations. The last time we had this condition was September 2017 which resulted in multi-year downward momentum. Here is the commercials net position. The last time they were negative in net positions was July 2020. which resulted in AUD going down up to now. Now they are negative again. This is Retailers net positions. Interesting part is whenever their net position is around 10,000, AUDUSD seems to go down. On top of that the 5, 10, and 15-year seasonality trends indicate that the market typically reaches its peak around July 24. Therefore, it is expected to decline from that point onward.
CME:6A1!Short
by XardasX
3