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SPX500U2025 trade ideas

LONG ES after London Open*I like the long better for london open. From 6000, weak liquidity built up above, Finished business below, macro SMAs buy bias... HOWEVER there is also a good case for shorts as we are heading up into futures open, SMAs and there is LVN space below to squeeze into. So... I will be looking for finished business RISK and test/acc ENTRY as outlined there and targeting the weak liquidity above. Given the SMAs above etc, i doubt price will rush up, so take your time and get that test to confirm. And as always if its not there DONT chase. Patience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by thecools
2
Watch These Reversals – MES & MNQ at Major 4H Turning Points!Chart Breakdown: MES1! & MNQ1! – 4H Timeframe Analysis by GOAT This dual-pane chart presents a detailed technical analysis of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES1!) and Micro Nasdaq Futures (MNQ1!) on the 4-hour timeframe, designed with a custom visual aesthetic and proprietary tools by GOAT. 🔺 Left Panel – MES1! (4H): Price Action: MES is trading within a broad rising channel, currently testing key support near 6,020 after a textbook Head and Shoulders formation. Overlays: A dynamic channel structure and multiple Fibonacci-like zone levels guide potential bounce or breakdown scenarios. Bearish Divergence: RSI shows clear bearish divergence leading into the recent highs—highlighted with trendline markers. Support Zones: Immediate support around 5,973, with deeper support levels around 5,905 and 5,808 if breakdown confirms. 🔵 Right Panel – MNQ1! (4H): Structure: MNQ is also respecting a broader bullish channel with intermediate pullbacks. Current structure shows an active Inverse Head and Shoulders setup with a neckline breakout possible above 21,930. Trade Markups: An active long trade is visible with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit zones marked (+784 ticks risk, +4,220 ticks potential reward). Dynamic Zones: Blue channel and volume-weighted zones provide a context for supply/demand imbalances. Momentum: RSI recovering from oversold territory with signs of early bullish reversion. 📉 Bottom Pane – RSI Comparison: MES RSI (Left): Bearish divergence structure leading to local weakness; neutral at ~47. MNQ RSI (Right): Bullish rebound attempt with higher low in RSI compared to price, suggesting a possible positive divergence. 🧠 Summary: This setup highlights potential short-term bullish reversals on MNQ1! and trend exhaustion on MES1! using classic pattern recognition (H&S and inverse H&S), custom channel tools, and momentum divergences. Ideal for traders watching high-probability inflection points on U.S. index futures. ⚙️ Designed for educational purposes. Not financial advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by goat-farm
3
ES1!/SP500 Targeting Weekly Range Resistance***QUOTING SEP CONTRACT FOR JUNE CONTRACT OR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~52 POINTS*** ***WEEKLY ACTION AREA VIDEO TO FOLLOW AHEAD OF NY OPEN*** WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6090/6100 WEEKLY RANGE RES 6150 SUP 5914 DAILY RANGE RES 6090 SUP 5972 DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6019 WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 5923 DAILY BALANCE - 6064/5965 WEEKLY ONE TIME FRAMING UP - 5965 MONTHLY ONE TIME FRAMING UP GAP LEVELS 5843/5741/5710/5339 Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts. One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement. One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement. GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS Weekend Cross-Asset Dislocations (15-Jun-2025) Oil Options Positioning Reaches Extreme Levels On Friday, call buying in oil pushed the put-call skew to one of its most extreme levels in over 25 years. This indicates that investors are positioning for significant upside asymmetry. Notably, the shift in the put-call skew far exceeded the movement in near-term oil futures, compared to similar past episodes. AI-Related Capex Remains Steady Our analysts report that capex spending for 2025 and 2026 by the six largest hyperscalers has remained stable over the past few months. Bearish investors might interpret the absence of upward revisions as a sign of slowing momentum in the broader AI sector. Conversely, bullish investors could view the rebound in stock prices as a signal of growing confidence in hyperscalers and other AI-exposed companies to generate revenue sufficient to support planned capex. Sector-Specific Divergences in Put-Call Skew Friday saw notable divergences in put-call skew across sectors, highlighting the varied impact of global events. Increased call-buying pressure in energy aligns with the extreme shift in oil’s put-call skew. Meanwhile, rising put-call skew in Materials and Financials reflects heightened downside concerns, with Materials put-buying signaling fears of a broader economic slowdown. Balanced Positioning in Single Stock Put-Call Skew Despite sector-specific disparities, single-stock positioning remains balanced. The average stock’s put-call skew has returned to levels seen in March 2025, before the US tariff announcements. IG Credit Spreads Tight Relative to Equities Investment-grade (IG) equity investors appear more cautious than their credit counterparts, likely due to elevated uncertainty around US interest rates. A potential rate increase could disproportionately impact IG equity valuations. Retail Investor Activity Remains Stable Retail investor volumes have aligned with their five-year average, suggesting they remain engaged but have not been a dominant driver of equity performance in recent weeks. For single stocks, retail investors have been in a holding pattern, having shifted from net buyers earlier this year to small net sellers recently. This suggests they may be waiting for a broader market dip to resume buying. SPX Daily Options Pricing Reflects Steady Volatility SPX options are pricing daily moves between 0.9% and 1.2% over the next four weeks. Notably, options for this week’s FOMC meeting are pricing a relatively low ±0.9% move. While a ±1.2% move is priced for July 7, uncertainty remains regarding the volatility impact of the tax bill and the end of the 90-day tariff pause. Professional Investors Maintain Cautious Stance Entering 2025, professional investors significantly reduced their demand for leveraged equity exposure through futures, swaps, and options, signaling potential downside risks. While this trend has continued, the pace of selling has slowed in recent weeks, making the cautionary signal less alarming. Wednesday marks the VIX expiry, which we believe has been supporting the market. Thursday is a market holiday, and Friday brings option expiry, likely leading to a high out-of-office session as risk-taking eases. The market may challenge crowded trades, with "short oil" being noted as particularly crowded. 1. Positioning (i): Hedge funds have been buying U.S. equities for six consecutive weeks, with net leverage exceeding 50% after reaching a five-year low in April. Despite a generally bearish outlook, investors are positioned bullishly due to limited alternatives. 2. Positioning (ii): Sector flows show increased risk aversion, with strong demand in utilities and significant supply in consumer discretionary sectors. 3. Positioning (iii): The systematic community remains long on stocks and is unlikely to sell significantly unless conditions worsen. The key level to watch in the SPX is 5800, both medium-term and short-term. 4. Flows (i): The long-only community has finally turned to buying stocks after three weeks of selling imbalances, ending $10 billion better to buy across all sectors. 5. Flows (ii): As the June expiry approaches, SPX call open interest is at an all-time high with 8.7 million contracts. 6. Trades (i): In derivatives, there have been buyers of VIX puts extending to July, with a significant premium built into the VIX curve. SPX realized volatility is at 12, while July VIX is nearly double that. Outright puts are intriguing, and some VIX puts were traded contingent on SPX falling below a certain level. 7. Trades (ii): Our cash desk believes the AI theme is gaining momentum. Callahan notes the increased visibility around GenAI as the biggest takeaway from the week. The Ellison earnings transcript highlights "astronomical" demand. 8. Trades (iii): The Goldman Sachs house view and consensus suggest that gold will continue its rapid rise. A July 97% put costs 100 basis points, representing the maximum loss premium paid.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Tickmill
1
A Trend on Borrowed Time, A Micro ED within a Larger ED?Since mid-last month, the broader equity market has been grinding higher — but not with confidence. The advance has been marked by choppy, overlapping price action that feels more hesitant than bullish. Yes, prices continue carving out higher highs and higher lows, but MACD momentum tells a different story. With every push upward, the MACD weakens, flashing warning signs beneath the surface. Taken through the lens of Elliott Wave theory, this unfolding pattern carries all the classic fingerprints of an Ending Diagonal — a structure that often signals a trend on borrowed time. Key Characteristics of an Ending Diagonal: 1. Position in the Wave Structure: A. Occurs in Wave 5 of an impulse wave or Wave C of a corrective pattern (such as a zigzag or flat). B. Rarely, but sometimes, seen in Wave 3 of an impulse, but this is generally associated with a leading diagonal, not an ending one. 2. Structure: A. Composed of five sub-waves, labeled (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v). B. Each of these sub-waves subdivides into 3 waves (i.e., they are all corrective or "3-wave" structures, often labeled as a-b-c). C. This gives the whole pattern a distinct 3-3-3-3-3 internal structure. 3. Price Behavior: A. Overlapping waves: Wave 4 often overlaps with the price territory of Wave 1, which is normally a rule violation for standard impulsive structures — but it's allowed in an ending diagonal. B. Converging trendlines: The upper and lower boundaries of the diagonal typically form converging lines (like a wedge), though they can also be parallel in some cases. C. Diminishing momentum: Often accompanied by momentum divergence, meaning price makes a new high or low, but momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) do not confirm. 4. Implication: A. An ending diagonal suggests the current trend is running out of steam. B. Once complete, a sharp reversal or significant correction is expected. In my analytical view, the byproduct of an Ending Diagonal often lures market participants into a conflicted state — cautious, yet unable to ignore the persistent upward grind. You’ve probably heard the old market adage: “Don’t fight the tape.” In this case, that mentality sets in as traders, wary but worn down, finally throw in the towel and join the advance — only for the market to seemingly punish that decision with a sharp reversal. Many experienced traders describe their Ending Diagonal experience the same way: “The moment I finally stopped fighting the trend and got long, it was as if the market was waiting for me — and reversed hard.” That is how I would describe this micro ED we appear to be in the final stages of what I’m counting as the micro wave v of (v) of Minor A. For now, no key structural support levels within the Micro Ending Diagonal have been breached, so the advance can certainly stretch a little higher. But make no mistake — in my opinion, this remains one of the most dangerous, deceptive patterns to engage with. Last week, I closed my short out-of-the-money ES call positions during the micro wave iv pullback (not shown on the above chart). Ideally, I’m looking for an opportunity to reestablish a similar position this week. From there I will reassess the larger Ending Diagonal pattern you see outlined on the chart above.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
Wave 5 up in a Diagonal could be hours away The chart posted is the sp 500 futures back in april 10 th I labeled the low at 5102 as wave B or 2 both called for sharp rally to as high as 6147 in which wave 1 or a x 1.168 = 3 or c for a wave B top . since then I saw the high at 5968 as the end of wave 3 top and then looked for a drop back to 5669 we saw 5667 and so far all rallies have taken a 3 wave formation in which Most but Not all times this is occurring in an ending diagonal and in each wave we saw so far .887 the preceding wave . I have traded in and out and I am waiting for a final push up to 6083/6147 midpoint 6100 to take a short position . The alt is a small series of 4/5 4/5 4/5 if this were the count we would then break ABOVE 6147 and then reach 6330 . I am waiting to confirm .Best of trades WAVETIMER
CME_MINI:ES1!
by wavetimer
SPY 5 Wave Impulse The broader equity market has staged a significant rebound from the panic-induced tariff lows seen in April, reclaiming the previously established value area with notable strength. Generally, when price reclaims a value range, it can be common for price to oscillate within the value area high, and low, to build strength for the next move. From a structural standpoint, I interpret this advance as a five-wave impulsive sequence, with the current rally toward the 6100 level representing the fifth subwave within a larger third wave of the broader Elliott Wave framework. According to this interpretation, we may be approaching a final "blow-off" move to the upside—commonly labeled as Wave 5 of 5—which is often characterized by its velocity, magnitude, and the psychological impact it has on retail participants, frequently triggering a surge of FOMO-driven buying. However, I urge caution: this concluding leg may offer a strategic opportunity to reduce equity exposure, particularly as August has historically exhibited bearish seasonality. A swift corrective decline could follow the completion of this wave, potentially sparking short-term panic. While unsettling, such a correction would likely represent a healthy rebalancing within the broader uptrend and could provide an advantageous entry point ahead of a year-end rally. Furthermore, it's worth noting that many hedge funds and CTAs have remained underexposed throughout this powerful ascent. Should valuations reset to more attractive levels, sidelined liquidity—particularly capital currently parked in money markets—may be incentivized to re-enter the market with a longer-term outlook. The key indicator which I will be following is the VIX risk sentiment in the market. Once we reach elevated levels above approx 30/40 , this would be a good time for me to analyze potentially dollar cost averaging back into the market. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by afurs1
Buy OIL & GOLD, Sell Stocks Indices When Missiles Are Flying!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 16-20th. When missiles start flying in the Middle East, investors become reactively risk averse. Money goes from stocks to safe havens and oil. That's it. Expect oil prices to rise, Gold to reach new highs, and the equity markets to see more sellers than buyers. This environment may last a few days or a few weeks. Keep an ear to the news. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
06/20/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis06/20/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +1437.50 Sleep: 6 hours Overall health: hanging in there ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** — 6/20/2025 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double sell) :check: — 6/20/2025 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 6/20/2025 11:14 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple buy) :check: What’s one key lesson or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Fed's Barkin: There is nothing urgent in the data warranting a rate cut at this point. What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6015 = Bullish, Under 6005= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
06/17/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysisEOD accountability report: +1,337.50 Sleep: 9 hours Overall health: Good, was averaging 40k steps the week before, now around 20k avg, need to get it up to 25k steps min per week. **What was my initial plan? ** Went into the market pretty neutral today with the mindset that it should be the calm before storm (fomc tomorrow), There was a string defense of 1 min MOB in the morning and that gave me the belief that early part of the day was going to be bullish so i took a few stabs at support and made my money. ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** 4/4 — 9:34 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 10:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double signal) :check: — 11:36 AM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal (double signal) :check: — 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check: Next day plan--> Above 6015 = Bullish, Under 6005= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
S&P 500 | Short Setup | into Resistance | (June 16, 2025)ES (S&P 500) | Short Setup | Pump into Resistance | (June 16, 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: The S&P 500 (ES) pumped nearly 2% today, pushing into major resistance and approaching all-time highs. Now I’m watching for signs of exhaustion and a potential reversal toward key value levels. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Short Entry: Watching for rejection around 6152–6166 Stop Loss: Just above the all-time high or intraday spike TP1: Previous month’s value area high TP2: Mid-channel zone (aligned with Fibonacci confluence) Partial Exits: Consider exiting partially if momentum stalls at key zones 3️⃣ Key Notes: Price is currently breaking out of a power channel. On the 30-minute chart, several limit orders suggest selling interest near this resistance. A reversal here could send ES back into the value range. Also watching ETH, SOL, and other majors for correlation, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions like news out of Iran. 4️⃣ Optional Follow-up: I’ll keep monitoring for clear reversal signals. If we see sharp rejection with high volume, I’ll post a follow-up. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Risk_Adj_Return
06/18/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +521.25 Sleep: 5 hours (bad sleep) Overall health: My Ultrahuman Ring is saying I might be getting sick. 9 need to recover sleep and take care of body today and tmr. I think my lack of exercise this week is catching up to me. **What was my initial plan? ** Looking at things premarket, things looked a bit weak as it was about sell off in the morning with bearish structure and DHC. Went in for a short at 1 min MOB but it didn't react and just broke thru, so flipped to bullish side and took it to the next resistance. overall plan for the day was to look for chop zones to scalp b4 fomc, but that actually didnt happen until after fomc. ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** 4/5 — 9:50 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 10:52 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :check: — 12:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Double signal) :x: — 12:11 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 1:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Double signal) :check: Next day plan--> Above 6015 = Bullish, Under 6005= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
S&P 500, the technical battleground for JuneIn our April 15 analysis, we questioned the likelihood of a low point for the S&P 500 index based on technical analysis considerations. The VIX (the implied volatility of the S&P 500) also showed bearish technical characteristics (inverted correlation with the S&P 500), and indeed, the equity market offered a solid rebound against a backdrop of trade diplomacy. With elements of technical overheating appearing in the short term, let's review the technical analysis signals to establish a diagnosis of the current situation in the US equity market. To start with, you can reread our April analyses of the S&P 500 and VIX by clicking on the two images below. 1) Short-term technical overheating, but fundamental uptrend preserved above technical support at 5750/5800 points The S&P 500 index has developed a bullish V-bottom rally since the beginning of April, and the global equity market even made a new all-time high last week. The upward movement of the S&P 500 sees an alternation between bullish impulses and short-term consolidations/corrections, and this chart pattern is likely to repeat itself as long as trade diplomacy takes its course and as the market awaits the FED's next monetary policy decision next week. The daily chart suggests short-term technical overheating (small bearish price/momentum divergence, with momentum represented here by the RSI technical indicator). In any case, even if the market needs a breather in the short term, the underlying trend remains bullish above major support at 5700/5800 points, i.e. the bullish gap opened in mid-May and the 200-day moving average. The chart below shows daily Japanese candlesticks for the S&P 500 future contract 2) In terms of retail investor sentiment, the reservoir of sellers has diminished, but remains well filled The study of retail investor sentiment is part of contrarian analysis of financial markets, one of the disciplines of technical analysis of financial markets. Although the pool of sellers has shrunk, a significant proportion of retail investors are still doubtful about the recovery. This pessimistic sentiment among retail traders is an indicator that the recovery still has medium-term potential, as market peaks have always taken place amid retail investor euphoria. 3) On the quantitative side, watch out for a technical overbought situation in the short term On the other hand, caution is called for in the short term, as the percentage of S&P 500 shares above the 50-day moving average (this tool here represents the quantitative side of the market) is approaching its overbought zone, a situation soon to be reversed from that of early April. 4) Institutional investors remain cautious ahead of the FED meeting on Wednesday June 18, while trade agreements are still pending In conclusion, it is important to bear in mind that next week's fundamental highlight will be the FED's monetary policy decision. The market needs to know whether or not the FED will confirm two rate cuts between now and the end of the year. The FED will also be updating its macro-economic projections, and institutional investors are being cautious in the meantime, as shown by the CFTC's latest Commitment Of Traders report. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote