DOGE/USDT Perpetual Contract forum
If it goes down, there are support lines:
First $0.14
Second $0.125
Third $0.1
First, if the weekly candle rises and touches the 20-day line, it is positive.
Second, if the price stays where it is and the next week's candle starts above the 5-day line based on the weekly candle, it is positive.
If the price does not move much this week and the next week's weekly candle starts below the 5-day line, it will first fall near the previous low, and in the worst case, it will fall near $0.123.
The larger the drop at once, the faster the rebound will be.

If Dogecoin closes near the 20-day moving average this week based on the weekly chart, we can definitely expect a rebound.
It's around $0.189 to be exact.
However, I don't think that will happen...
It won't go beyond the 5-day moving average based on the weekly chart and will probably get close to the 20-day moving average next week.
However, for that to happen, the starting price of the weekly chart that changes next week must start above the 5-day moving average.
If it goes up to $0.189 this week, I'm really thankful.
Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire.
I thought the Strait of Hormuz would not be blocked and the war would be long, so I was a bit pessimistic, but things turned out okay in an instant.
For this reason, a US interest rate cut in July seems almost certain.
Iran's surrender leads to a drop in oil prices -> inflation slows down -> tariff burden decreases -> demand for US bonds increases due to stablecoins and SLR deregulation -> Then, if this leads to a lower US Treasury yield, the FED will also lower its benchmark interest rate without any burden, which is expected to continue the virtuous cycle.
I think Dogecoin will go according to the scenario of July lows and a rise between October and November.
Of course, I am talking about Dogecoin because I have invested in it, but this applies to almost all coins with a certain market cap.
I wish everyone good luck.
No matter how I look at it, it seems that Dogecoin is setting a low around $0.145 and that rebounding from here would be the best scenario.
Regarding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, betting sites estimate the likelihood at about 26%.
I also think the possibility of a Hormuz blockade is low. If it happens, all countries would likely turn their backs on Iran.
This would be quite a burden for China as well.
So, rather than a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, I believe Iran will likely bypass it by transporting energy to China via the Iran-China railway established in 2021.
To put it simply, a Hormuz blockade is not easy.
Considering this and looking at the charts, the current price level seems the most suitable for preparing a rebound.
If it breaks down from here, I think it will see a gradual decline until late July, possibly reaching $0.11.
These are tough times in many ways.
If Dogecoin were a person, I’d want to give it a low kick to the thigh.