No matter how I look at it, it seems that Dogecoin is setting a low around $0.145 and that rebounding from here would be the best scenario.
Regarding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, betting sites estimate the likelihood at about 26%.
I also think the possibility of a Hormuz blockade is low. If it happens, all countries would likely turn their backs on Iran.
This would be quite a burden for China as well.
So, rather than a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, I believe Iran will likely bypass it by transporting energy to China via the Iran-China railway established in 2021.
To put it simply, a Hormuz blockade is not easy.
Considering this and looking at the charts, the current price level seems the most suitable for preparing a rebound.
If it breaks down from here, I think it will see a gradual decline until late July, possibly reaching $0.11.
These are tough times in many ways.
If Dogecoin were a person, I’d want to give it a low kick to the thigh.
If Dogecoin can maintain a range between $0.124 and $0.198 from now on, I’d consider that a very optimistic scenario. The U.S. attack on Iran, followed by the Hormuz Strait blockade, has heightened global economic uncertainty. As is well known, Bitcoin has failed to act as a safe-haven asset since 2019. From that point, cryptocurrencies have no longer been attractive investments during crises.
In South Korea, Dogecoin fell over 5% overnight but later recovered to close with a loss in the low 2% range. Personally, I see less than a 50% chance of it dropping below $0.13. I’m not entirely ruling out $0.11, but if Dogecoin reaches that level, I believe it will only briefly touch it before rebounding. If conditions change, I’ll adjust my view, but for now, I think it’s most likely to consolidate with $0.13 as the floor. My reasoning is based on the 2-day and 3-day charts, where long-term moving averages align around $0.13. More precisely, the 275-day moving average on the 3-day chart supports this. The price has broken above and settled around this level, which makes a drop below it less likely.
Regardless, I still believe the bottom will form in July, with a rally starting between mid-October and early November. The outlook is grim. To control inflation, wars must be avoided, but conflicts are erupting worldwide, and governments involved in these wars keep injecting cash into markets. In this scenario, we’d be lucky if interest rates just stay flat. Cryptocurrencies need liquidity to rise, but all conditions are currently negative for them. If Dogecoin falls below $0.11, the bottom might not form in July but rather between mid-October and early November. I hope it doesn’t come to that.
ps. Of course, it may go down by breaking through the 275-day moving average based on the 3-day chart. Then, I think the price of Dogecoin will really fall a lot.
Dogecoin investors may not like what I'm writing this time.
In fact, from my perspective, Dogecoin has lost its upward momentum in the long term, and to put it more realistically, it has started to decline.
However, this does not mean a crash.
Even if it declines, the worst case scenario is $0.6.
Based on the weekly chart, it seems that there is a good chance of a rebound.
However, I think the maximum point for the increase due to this rebound is between $0.35 and $0.38.
This is because it is a downward trend.
Personally, I think it would be best not to buy anyway.
Also, if you buy after confirming the rebound at $0.11 and then buy when it reaches around $0.30, I hope you don't get greedy and sell to make a profit.
DOGEUSDT Low point formed before August, ready to rise in October~November. Considering the current price movement of Dogecoin, I think this is the most realistic movement. I'm not saying that I want this to happen. I also want Dogecoin to rise quickly.
DOGEUSDT 
