Wall Street Eyes Volatility: Dow Jones Tests Reversal ZoneUS30 (Dow Jones Index) — Clashing Forces of Risk & Reality
Technical Outlook — 16 June, 2025 | 1H Chart
Current Market Condition:
The Dow Jones (US30) has staged a recovery from the recent dip, but price is stalling at the Previous Day High (~42,588), a key confluence zone with the broken rising trendline, 50 EMA, and overhead supply.
This hesitation comes amid heightened global risk aversion triggered by the intensifying Iran–Israel conflict, adding pressure to global indices as investors rotate into safer assets like treasuries and gold. Despite intraday rebounds, equity bulls are showing signs of fatigue at resistance zones.
Markets are also bracing for upcoming US economic data and Fed commentary, which may further amplify intraday volatility.
Key Technical Highlights:
Price rejected from the confluence of PDH (~42,588), horizontal supply zone, and old rising trendline (yellow).
Currently hovering just under the 50 EMA; failure to hold could initiate a rotation back toward PD Low.
Stochastic RSI nearing overbought — suggests possible local top if no momentum breakout follows.
EMA 200 and the Previous Day Low at ~42,053 remain critical intraday supports.
Overall structure forming potential lower high under bearish macro cloud.
Trade Plan:
🔼 Bullish Breakout (Intraday Long):
Trigger: Break and sustained hold above 42,600 with rising volume
Target: 42,900 → 43,100
Stop Loss: Below 42,450 (to avoid whipsaws)
🔻 Bearish Rejection (Intraday Short):
Trigger: Clean rejection from PDH + trendline with bearish engulfing
Target: 42,100 → 42,050 → 41,850
Stop Loss: Above 42,650
⚖️ Neutral / Range Trade:
Play the range between PDH (~42,588) and PDL (~42,053) until breakout.
Scalp based on price reaction at either boundary with tight stop loss.
🛡️ Risk Management Note:
Global uncertainty tied to war escalation and Fed policy expectations make this a headline-driven market. News risk can spike volatility and invalidate technical setups. Trade with reduced size and increased caution, especially around US market open and geopolitical news cycles.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
DOWUSD trade ideas
US30 Long OpportunityUS30 had a break out to the upside from $42560 and we are not seeing a potentially retracement to the break and retest level where we can expect a further jump to the upside. Seeing bullish structure on the 15 min and higher timeframes with confluence at the breakout.
Price is currently above the 50 SMA on all timeframes above the 15min and momentum is bullish per the RSI trading above the 55 level, adding to the bullish confluence
Looking to the ride the bullish wave from $42560 to $42920 where currently resistance level is sitting
US30 BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
US30 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 42,200.7
Target Level: 42,556.5
Stop Loss: 41,963.5
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 6h
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us30 outlook US30 Supply & Demand Outlook (1H–2H)
The market is currently trading within a fair value range (highlighted in yellow), with no clear edge for high-probability entries.
I'm waiting for price to move out of this range and into one of the fresh supply or demand zones marked above and below.
DOW/US30 - TIME FOR RECOVER DURING UK MARKET OPENINGTeam, very sad day to see Israel missle flying
We can only hope the world in peace
We are now finding opportunity to entry LONG DOW/US30
Please set your target 1 and 2 ranges
Make sure take 50-70% at first target and bring stop loss to BE
then second target
Please review the chart carefully and pricing target
Good luck.
US30 Breaks Trendline Support – Will Geopolitics Add FuelUS30 (Dow Jones) — Trendline Breach & Rising Geopolitical Risk
Technical Outlook — 13 June, 2025
Current Market Condition:
US30 is currently trading at 42,339, showing early signs of risk-off sentiment following a clear break of both the ascending trendline and the Previous Day Low, with price rejecting from the 42,863 supply zone. This sharp decline aligns with growing tensions between Iran and Israel, which are weighing heavily on investor confidence. The breakdown suggests a shift in momentum, with further downside likely if key support levels fail to hold.
Key Technical Highlights:
Major ascending trendline support has broken, indicating a structural shift toward bearish sentiment.
Price broke below both the Previous Day Low (42,551) and Fib support, invalidating short-term bullish setups.
EMA 50 was lost, and price is heading toward the 200 MA at ~42,100.
Stochastic shows strong bearish momentum, currently in a downward cross and nowhere near oversold.
Major downside levels: 42,100, 41,900, 41,700, and 41,500.
Upside resistance: 42,550, followed by 42,863 and 42,970.
🌍 Geopolitical Factor – Iran-Israel Conflict:
The recent escalation between Iran and Israel has intensified risk aversion across global markets. Defensive sectors are gaining while equity indices like the Dow Jones face increased selling pressure. With concerns over possible oil supply disruptions and global uncertainty, traders are pulling capital from equities and seeking safe-haven assets like gold and bonds.
The volatility spike from this geopolitical conflict may overshadow technical setups, amplifying moves and reducing the reliability of support/resistance zones unless confirmed with volume.
Trade Plan:
🔻 1. Bearish Continuation Setup (Short Bias) – Most Probable
Trigger: Retest of 42,550 fails (previous demand turned supply)
Target: 42,100 → 41,900 → 41,500
Stop Loss: Above 42,600
⚠️ 2. Pullback Bounce (Short-term Buy) – Less Probable
Trigger: Strong bounce from 42,100 with bullish divergence on Stochastic
Target: 42,550 → 42,700
Stop Loss: Below 42,000
Risk Management Note:
Due to the unfolding Middle East conflict, markets may behave erratically and spike unpredictably. Use smaller position sizes, widen SL buffers slightly, and stay alert to news headlines. Prioritize confirmation over anticipation.
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US30 Breakout Watch: 43,300 or Bust?US30 (Dow Jones) — Price Tests Key Fib Support with Breakdown Risk
Technical Outlook — 12 June, 2025
Current Market Condition:
US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is currently trading around 42,661 on the 4-hour timeframe, up +0.17% for the session. After rejection at the Previous Day High (43,121), price is now pulling back and testing the Previous Day Low around the 42,660 region, which also aligns with a Fibonacci confluence zone and the 50 EMA. This zone is acting as a last line of defence for bulls — if held, a push toward new highs remains on the table. However, a confirmed break could see the index slide further toward deeper support levels.
Key Technical Highlights:
Price is testing a major fib-based support cluster around 42,600–42,700, aligning with the Previous Day Low and 50 EMA.
The Stochastic Oscillator has crossed bearish from the overbought region and is now heading down, indicating short-term bearish momentum.
Resistance is now PDL and next one at 43,121 (PDH) and a break above this level would confirm bullish continuation.
Trade Plan:
✅ 1. Bullish Breakout (Long) – Most Probable if Support Holds
Trigger: Bullish candle or engulfing pattern above 42,660–42,700 zone with volume confirmation
Target: 43,121 (PDH) → 43,300
Stop Loss: Below 42,500
⚠️ 2. Bearish Rejection (Short) – Viable if Fib Zone Breaks
Trigger: 4H candle closes below 42,600 with bearish confirmation
Target: 42,300 → 42,100 → 41,900
Stop Loss: Above 42,800
📉 3. Dip Buy Setup – Least Probable but High RR Opportunity
Trigger: Price dips into 42,100 or 41,900 zone and forms a strong bullish reversal pattern (e.g., pin bar, bullish divergence on Stochastic)
Target: Bounce back toward 42,600–42,800
Stop Loss: Below 41,800
Risk Management:
Use conservative lot sizing and set clear stop losses to avoid whipsaw risk. With macroeconomic data and news expected this week, watch for volatility spikes. Always let the setup confirm before entry, especially near fib-based support or resistance zones.
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DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Pullback From Support
US30 shows some strength after a test of a key intraday support.
A cup and handle pattern on that and a violation of its neckline
indicate a local strength of the buyers.
I expect a pullback to 42550
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US30 – Bearish Bias Amid Escalating Middle East TensionsUS30 – Bearish Bias Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
U.S. indices, particularly the Dow Jones (US30), are under sustained bearish pressure due to intensifying geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. With no signs of de-escalation or negotiation, market sentiment remains risk-off.
Technical Outlook:
As long as the crisis continues, US30 is likely to maintain its downward momentum. The price appears set to test the 41770 level, with potential continuation toward 41310.
Only a clear signal of de-escalation or diplomatic engagement may reverse this trend, possibly triggering a recovery toward 42810.
For now, the directional bias remains bearish.
Key Levels:
• Pivot: 42160
• Support: 41770, 41310, 40700
• Resistance: 42410, 42810, 43210
Click to see the Previous idea
DowJones uptrend retest Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 43192
Resistance Level 2: 43620
Resistance Level 3: 44290
Support Level 1: 42100
Support Level 2: 41420
Support Level 3: 40990
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US30 Analysis: Liquidity Dip or Deeper Correction?📉 US30 (Dow Jones) Trade Idea 📉
Currently analysing US30 – the Dow Jones Index 🏛️, and there are some key developments worth noting…
On the 4-hour timeframe, we’re observing a clear shift in market structure, with price breaking through previous lows ⚠️. This raises two possibilities:
🔹 It could be a liquidity grab before a rally 🚀
🔹 Or, it may be the beginning of a deeper end-of-week sell-off targeting levels below 🔻
At this stage, I’m watching for a potential counter-trend short position — but only if the conditions outlined in the video are met with precision 🎯.
🧠 As always, it’s about waiting for confirmation, not jumping in early. Disciplined execution is key. 🧩💼
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for educational purposes only. Always do your own analysis and manage risk accordingly.
Dow Jones Index Rises Towards Key ResistanceDow Jones Index Rises Towards Key Resistance
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wall Street 30 mini on FXOpen) climbed above the 42,950 level — a high not seen since early March.
The index has gained around 1.6% since the beginning of June.
Why Is the Dow Jones Rising?
→ Friday’s US jobs report helped ease concerns about the country’s economic outlook. According to ForexFactory, Non-Farm Employment Change came in at +139K, beating the forecast of +126K.
→ On Thursday, Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a call, easing tariff tensions. Market participants also welcomed news that officials may hold trade negotiations in London on 9 June.
Could the DJIA (Wall Street 30 mini on FXOpen) Rally Continue?
Technical Analysis of the Dow Jones Chart
The chart suggests that the 42,950 level is acting as a significant resistance. The price has repeatedly reversed from the 42,660–42,950 area (as shown by the arrows).
At the same time:
→ Friday’s move above 42,950 triggered selling pressure, forming a candlestick with a long upper shadow;
→ This may have been a false bullish breakout of the May high;
→ The price remains within an ascending channel (shown in blue), but the bounces off the lower boundary appear weak.
Given this setup, it is reasonable to assume that intensified bearish activity near 42,950 on the USA30 could lead to a breakout below the channel’s lower boundary.
Additional pressure on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wall Street 30 mini on FXOpen) may come from developments in California, where protests have erupted against immigrant deportations, with President Donald Trump and Governor Gavin Newsom trading accusations.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
DOW JONES Inverse Head and Shoulders close to a bullish breakoutDow Jones (DJI) has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, having formed the Right Shoulder supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The price is now slowly rising to test the upper neckline and if broken, expect a strong movement upwards. Technically, such patterns target their 2.0 Fibonacci extensions. The current one is at 49200 and that's our long-term Target. If you seek lower risk, you may target the 1.5 Fib extension.
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DOW - H&S is getting progressed. 📉 DOW JONES – Head & Shoulders Pattern Formation (Right Shoulder in Progress)
The chart illustrates a clear Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern, a classic bearish reversal signal, forming on the higher timeframe.
🧠 Pattern Breakdown:
Left Shoulder: Formed in early March.
Head: Sharp dip and recovery formed during early April.
Right Shoulder: Currently in the making, aligning with a weekly resistance near 42,880 levels.
Price is expected to reject this resistance and complete the right shoulder.
📌 Technical View:
Strong rejection expected near the weekly horizontal resistance.
If the right shoulder completes and breaks below the neckline (around 41,500–41,600), it may trigger a measured fall.
Fibonacci levels also align, with the 0.382 and 0.5 retracement acting as potential reaction zones.
🎯 Target:
Target: 40,900 levels (Right Shoulder support zone).
This is a confluence zone where buyers may reappear.
Also forms a neckline test, critical for breakout confirmation or reversal.
🔔 Trade Setup Insight:
Short bias activated near 42,880 resistance zone.
Watch for confirmation via bearish engulfing candles or lower time frame breakdowns.
Targeting 40,900 initially. Further downside possible if neckline breaks decisively.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. All trading involves risk. Please perform your own due diligence or consult a certified financial advisor before making trading decisions.
US30(Dow Jones)The combination of the COT data showing a shift towards more short positions and the technical picture suggests that bearish momentum could continue. Sell/Short: Consider entering a short position at current market levels, ideally on any retracement or rally towards the resistance zone.
Rush and Choke: Why the Patient Dog Wins in the MarketsWhere I come from, the expression “the patient dog eats the fattest bone” is sometimes seen as a myth—mostly because people want to get it fast. But that mindset doesn’t work in trading.
In this game, you have to be patient. Rushing into trades, chasing the market, or trying to force profits will only lead to unnecessary losses. If you’re not careful, that "bone" you’re so eager to grab might just get stuck in your throat.
Patience in trading means waiting for the right setup, managing your emotions, and trusting your strategy. It’s about playing the long game, not the fast one.
So remember: in the markets, the patient dog doesn’t just eat—the patient dog feasts.
Dow Jones Struggles to Reach 43,000 PointsThe Dow Jones has gained more than 1% over the last three trading sessions and is now attempting to consistently reach price levels not seen since March of this year. The bullish bias has remained steady as investor confidence has recovered, driven by ongoing economic negotiations between the United States and China. The potential easing of trade tensions has helped stabilize market sentiment in the short term, and if this trend continues positively, consistent buying pressure could emerge in the index's movements over the near term.
Sustained Uptrend
Since early April, the Dow Jones has maintained a steady upward trend, and so far, selling corrections have been insufficient to break that trend. However, price action continues to face resistance at the trendline, and if this ongoing neutrality persists, the trendline could come under pressure in the coming sessions.
MACD
The MACD histogram continues to oscillate very close to the neutral 0 line, indicating that momentum between the moving averages remains balanced. As long as this behavior persists, the current neutral tone could become even more pronounced in upcoming sessions.
ADX
The ADX line remains below the neutral 20 level in the short term, signaling that average volatility has been steadily decreasing over the past sessions. This has further intensified the market’s neutral tone near the current resistance zone where the price is trading.
Key Levels:
42,700 points: Current resistance zone, aligned with the recent multi-week highs. This level could become the base for a broader short-term consolidation.
43,800 points: A level not seen since February of this year. A return to this area could reinforce the bullish bias and support a more sustained upward trend.
41,000 points: A critical support level that coincides with the 200-day simple moving average. A move toward this level on the downside could threaten the current bullish structure.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst