DXY HOTD SetDXY HOTD Set
Unemployment Claims delivery lower expected.
H1 FTB, Weak Low.
H1 FVG, H1 QM
LOWER !!!
Let's see...
USDX trade ideas
DXY OUTLOOKhello.
this is my view or the dwy in the next 2 days :)
hope you find this helpfull
i wil update in the mid week
US DOLLAR INDEX(DXY): Classic Bearish SetupI believe that 📉DOLLAR INDEX has a potential to continue falling.
The market has been consolidating in a wide intraday horizontal range, and the breakout below the range support is a significant bearish indicator.
Target levels are 98.08 then 97.80 support.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Bearish Again?!
Dollar Index leaves clear bearish clues after a test
of a significant intraday/daily supply area.
I think that the market will continue falling at reach at least 98.04 level.
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DXY Long term targetI think the IV wave is finished. now in 1-2 year dxy next target will be around 120. probably in 1 year.
DXYThe DXY has faced severe sell off due to President Trump's policy and idea of how the dollar should be controlled/managed. Though it has fallen, a pullback will happen soon. I will be using the DXY as a good guide for all the USD/XXX or XXX/USD pairs. You as a trader can take what you can from this.
These 4HR FVG'S seem like a very good place where you can do one of two things. First you may be able to manage and hold a trade throughout the whole pullback. Another option is take complete profits instead of partials and enter in at good prices with this pullback in mind for bias.
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
DXY OUTLOOK - SWING SETUPThe dollar has been on a six-month decline, but I anticipate a recovery. This is primarily due to the current economic climate, geopolitical landscape, and the dollar's traditional role as a safe-haven currency during periods of significant uncertainty
"May fortune attend thee, and thy trade prosper." .......L2Earned
DXY Eyes Key Long-Term Support from 2008The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading near three-year lows, reflecting concerns over economic fragility and heightened geopolitical tensions.
If price action holds below 97, the DXY could face additional pressure, potentially descending toward the lower boundary of a long-term channel that has held since the 2008 lows. Key support levels at 96 and 94 may offer potential rebound zones.
Monthly RSI reflects more downside potential towards oversold conditions last seen in 2021. To reverse the current bearish momentum, the index would need to regain and hold above the 100-mark, which could shift sentiment back toward a bullish rebound outlook against the markets.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
DXY OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS - SELLOFF AT FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE 🟣DXY🟣 H4 CHART
As we witness the unfolding of a conflict in the Middle East this week I expect the commodities of OIL and GOLD to raise more after a pullback that will offer buy entries.
On my view the DXY index will pullback to the previous broken support now resistance in the 99.200 - 99.340 area and selloff to the weekly targets 97.500 and 96.800.
FOMC on Wednesday should catalyse this move and I expect the pullback to take place between the first days of the week
DXY: US dollar To Drop Further Around 95?The US dollar has been steadily declining since the new president was elected in the USA. This decline has been accompanied by the ongoing trade wars. Numerous economic indicators have supported this trend, and we anticipate further depreciation in the coming days or weeks. Before trading, it’s essential to conduct your own analysis and gain a comprehensive understanding of the market.
We wish you the best of success in trading. Good luck and trade safely.
Like and comment for more, and as always, happy trading!
Team Setupsfx_
dxy for short 30m*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
DOLLAR INDEXThe DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). It serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s global strength and is influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates, trade flows, and inflation expectations.
10 years bond yield Correlations with DXY
1. 10-Year Bond Yield
Positive Correlation: The DXY and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields generally move in the same direction. Higher yields attract foreign capital into U.S. bonds, increasing demand for dollars and strengthening the DXY.
Current 10-Year Yield (June 12, 2025): 4.36%, down slightly from 4.41% the previous day but up 1.16% year-over-year.
2. Bond Price
Inverse Relationship with Yields: Bond prices fall when yields rise (and vice versa). Since DXY and yields are positively correlated, the dollar tends to strengthen when bond prices decline.
3. Interest Rates
Direct Link: Higher U.S. interest rates increase the dollar’s appeal as investors seek higher returns, boosting DXY. Conversely, rate cuts weaken the dollar.
Example: The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2023–2024 contributed to DXY strength, while recent rate-cut expectations have moderated its gains.
Current 10-Year Treasury Yield
As of June 12, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.36%, below its long-term average of 5.83%.
Key Drivers of DXY in 2025
Federal Reserve Policy: Markets are pricing in potential rate cuts later in 2025, which could limit DXY upside.
Global Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven dollar demand rises during geopolitical or economic uncertainty.
Inflation Trends: Persistent U.S. inflation could delay Fed easing, supporting DXY
technical level to watch is the support level at 97,949
DXY; MARKETS JITTERS AND UNCERTAINTIES.The DXY did not hold a successful break above 99.000 which was our bullish signal. Furthermore, we had US banks closed for yesterday's NY session which did not do us any good as there was minimal movements in our charts. Without volatility there is little room for profit chasing as much as our USDJPY signal was on point.
Today's session started with a gap lower towards 98.50. I don't expect a mover lower before filling the gap so that will be our first objective before any further movement. My bias still remains the same ,a clean break and hold above 99.00 will signal a healthier dollar for the short term despite the war tensions.
DXY direction.With the news in great favour of DXY, PA also shows multiple rejection at the support zone (clearly oversold already).
Focus on EURUSD and GBPUSD for a long time sell.
Short Idea on DXYBased on :
- Investors surprised by the cpi new and seeking safety in bonds (ZB1!) making dollar go down
- break out of an important support level
- 2 supply zones
My Thoughts #015My Thoughts
Are that the pair will sell in this manner.
The pair is in a bearish pattern
Currently the pair is making a new LL
Meaning that on the lower time frame the pair is in a bearish pattern.
As you can see that pair just made a new LL a new LH is expected
It could buy and invalidate the set up.
Just use proper risk management
Let's do the most
DXY ready for takeoffDXY seems to have reached the bottom for now, as planned within the marked red timezone. I expect a bullish run until October (blue timezone) with target around 111-113 USD, which corresponds to 2-2.5 stdv from this last manipulation leg lower. All areas marked in chart.
Just got the May US CPIs. PPIs next...Here is the reaction in the US instruments to the numbers. Let's dig in.
TVC:DXY
TVC:DJI
MARKETSCOM:US500
MARKETSCOM:US100
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Caution for Dollar Shorts with Middle East Tensions FlaringMy educated guess is that the dollar is moving similar to the first time trump was elected. I am expecting dollar weakness to abate early next year. A major swing low formed in early 2018 one year after Trump was elected first round. Let us see if a similar situation forms next year. For now with DXY structured bearish caution is warranted with Oil up and 10 yr remaining elevated. There is a prior up move in April and until a decisive break below the current area Price Action and circumstances in the middle east warrant caution for dollar shorts.
DXY for short 45m*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
Short Term USD Strength This Week! Sell The Majors?This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Jun 8 - 12th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, and JPY.
USD gained some strength on Friday's job data. Talks with China this week may add to it. But I believe the bullishness will be short term.
Look for valid sells in EUR and GBP. Be cautious with AUD and NZD. CAD and CHF will also offer opportunities to sells.
CPI Data due Wed, making that day and the days that follow potentially the best trading days this week.
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"Inflation Drops, Jobless Claims Jump — What’s Next for DXY, Gol🚨 Markets are shifting fast. CPI and PPI both came in lower than expected, while jobless claims hit an 8-month high. This triple data combo could mark a turning point for the US economy and the Fed’s next move.
In this video, I break down:
🔹 What soft inflation and rising unemployment mean for monetary policy
🔹 How DXY is reacting to weakening USD sentiment
🔹 Key levels for XAUUSD as rate cut bets rise
🔹 Where BTCUSD may head next with risk-on momentum building
📊 Technical + Fundamental insights — all in one session.
👉 Drop your thoughts in the comments and follow for more real-time market breakdowns!
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