EURJPY: Expecting Bearish Movement! Here is Why:
The analysis of the EURJPY chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to tank due to the rising pressure from the sellers.
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EURJPY trade ideas
TEXT BOOK LTF PA EURJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D22 Y25TEXT BOOK LTF PA EURJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D22 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly 50 EMA
✅Daily 50 EMA
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
✅Intraday 15' order block
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
CURRENT OUTLOOK FOR EURJPY
The pair is in an uptrend, having successfully broken through the daily trend line and completed a retest. I'm anticipating a second retest around the 162.450 level, which could form a double bottom 'W' pattern. If this pattern confirms, our target would be 165.205, with a stop loss set around 162.034 to manage risk.
EURJPY🔍 Chart Analysis (EUR/JPY – 1H Timeframe):
A Double Bottom pattern has formed around the 162.10 - 162.20 zone, indicating selling pressure is weakening and a potential bullish reversal.
There's a clear key resistance level at 163.00, which has already been tested once but not yet broken.
The most recent low is a Higher Low, suggesting buyers are gaining strength and a bullish trend may be starting.
Suggested Trade Setup:
Direction: Bullish (Buy)
Entry: Around the current price (162.70 – 162.75)
Stop Loss: Below the second bottom – around 162.05
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 163.00 (key resistance)
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 163.60 (previous swing high)
Trade Rationale:
Price rebounded from a strong support level (162.10)
Formation of a Higher Low – bullish signal
If buying pressure continues, price may break above 163.00
EUR/JPY 1H: Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout + Target 🧠 Overview of the Setup
The EUR/JPY currency pair has recently completed a Falling Wedge pattern, a classic and powerful bullish reversal formation. This chart structure typically signals the end of a downtrend and the potential beginning of a strong upward impulse.
In this setup, multiple confluences point toward a bullish move, including pattern breakout, structure shift, retest of a dynamic support level, and alignment with major supply/resistance zones.
🔍 Pattern Analysis: Falling Wedge
Definition: A falling wedge is a technical pattern formed by two downward-sloping trendlines — one representing resistance and the other support — that converge. It signals a slowdown in bearish momentum, often preceding a bullish reversal.
Chart Observation: The wedge is well-defined, spanning several trading sessions. As price action tightened toward the apex, bearish momentum began to weaken.
Breakout Trigger: Price broke convincingly above the upper wedge boundary, suggesting the start of a bullish reversal.
✅ Implication: The breakout confirms that buyers have taken control, especially as this move is supported by a structural Change of Character (CHOCH).
📈 Price Action Structure & Key Zones
1. Minor Resistance (Broken)
After the breakout, price encountered a minor resistance zone just above the wedge. This area is now likely to flip into support (a classic breakout retest).
2. Major CHOCH (Change of Character)
A CHOCH indicates a break in market structure — from lower highs and lower lows to higher highs and higher lows.
The break above this level confirms a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
3. Curved Support (Black Min Curve)
A rising curved trendline has formed below current price, acting as a parabolic support structure.
This suggests not just a trend reversal, but increasing bullish momentum, as buyers step in at higher levels with each correction.
4. Major Resistance Zone (Target Area)
Price Target: ~164.50 – 165.50
This zone has historically acted as strong supply and is marked for potential take-profit or observation for reversal signals.
The target is derived from both horizontal resistance and the projected height of the wedge pattern.
🎯 Trading Strategy
Component Details
Entry Zone 162.50 – 162.60 (retest of minor resistance + curve support)
Stop Loss Below 162.00 (beneath wedge and curve)
Take Profit 164.50 – 165.50 (major resistance)
Risk/Reward Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3
🔸 Conservative Entry: Wait for bullish confirmation (bullish engulfing candle or pin bar) on the support retest.
🔸 Aggressive Entry: Market buy after confirmation of curve bounce or on lower timeframe bullish signals.
📊 Volume & Momentum Consideration
Although volume isn’t shown on this chart, volume confirmation on the breakout would significantly strengthen the bullish bias. Look for:
Increasing buy volume on breakout
Lower sell volume on pullbacks
Bullish divergence (if using RSI or MACD)
⚠️ Risk Management & Event Awareness
Be cautious of unexpected JPY-related economic releases (e.g., BOJ announcements, inflation data) that may cause volatility.
If the curved support is broken decisively, this could invalidate the setup, suggesting further consolidation or downside risk.
🧠 Psychological Perspective
The Falling Wedge reflects a market where sellers are gradually losing control — pushing price lower, but with less conviction. As the wedge tightens, bulls prepare to step in. The breakout confirms that sentiment has shifted, and many traders use such setups as entry points for swing or momentum trades.
The curved support line suggests a transition from accumulation to markup phase, which typically leads to faster price expansion as confidence in the uptrend grows.
✅ Summary
✅ Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish)
✅ Breakout: Confirmed with CHOCH
✅ Support: Curve trendline acting as dynamic support
✅ Target: 164.50 – 165.50 major resistance
✅ Bias: Bullish (until curve support is broken)
📣 Final Thoughts
This is a high-probability bullish continuation setup backed by price structure, pattern breakout, and support alignment. The risk is well-defined, and reward potential is strong — making this a favorable setup for swing traders or short-term position traders.
💬 Let me know what you think in the comments — are you going long EUR/JPY?
👍 Like and Follow for more setups and breakdowns.
EUR/JPY "Yuppy" Heist: Sniping Swiss Profits with Thief Trading!🌍 Hello Global Traders! 🌟
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Dive into our EUR/JPY "Yuppy" Forex heist, crafted with the signature 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, blending sharp technicals and deep fundamentals. Follow the strategy outlined in the TradingView chart, focusing on a long entry targeting the high-risk MA Zone. Expect a wild ride with overbought conditions, consolidation, and potential trend reversals where bearish players lurk. 🏆💰 Celebrate your wins, traders—you’ve earned it! 💪🎉
Entry 📈: The vault’s open! Grab bullish opportunities at any price, but for precision, set buy limit orders on a 15 or 30-minute timeframe near swing lows or highs for pullback entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Place your Thief SL at the recent swing low on the 4H timeframe (163.00) for scalping or day trades.
📍 Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance, lot size, and number of open orders.
Target 🎯: Aim for 167.00
💵 EUR/JPY "Yuppy" is riding a bullish wave, fueled by key market drivers. ☝
Unlock the full picture—dive into Fundamentals, Macro Insights, COT Reports, Quantitative Analysis, Sentiment Outlook, Intermarket Trends, and Future Targets. Check 👉🌎🔗.
⚠️ Trading Alert: News & Position Management 📰🚨
News can shake the market hard. Protect your trades by:
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EURJPY suggests a potential bearish moveEURJPY suggests a potential bearish move.
The price has been moving within an ascending channel
A downward-sloping trend line indicates a possible break below the channel.
If the price continues to drop, it may reach 163.300 ,162.500 and 162, which are marked as support levels.
The BOJ is probably doing intervention again in the forex market given that the they want to reach a deal soon with the US
On the other hand EURO has other problems. The inflation cooling down is suggesting further rate cuts and this can weigh on EURO pairs in the short term.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DAILY HOT PICK EURJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D20 Y25DAILY HOT PICK
FX:EURJPY
EURJPY LONG FORECAST Q2 W21 D20 Y25
GOOD MORNIG EJ, Due to higher time frame nothing-ness, the pair has been somewhat neglected BUT, We are starting so see some charting action within the lower time frame that excited pattern recognition.
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅HTF 50 EMA
✅Intraday 15' order block
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
EURJPYEUR/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Yield Curve Analysis (May–June 2025)
Interest Rate Differential
European Central Bank (ECB):
Deposit rate: 2.25% (cut by 25 bps in April 2025).
Outlook: Markets expect two more cuts in 2025, potentially lowering rates to 1.75% by year-end due to subdued inflation (2.3% YoY) and tariff risks.
Bank of Japan (BoJ):
Policy rate: 0.50% (unchanged in May 2025, highest since 2008).
Outlook: Dovish stance persists despite trimming 2025 GDP growth to 0.5%; further hikes unlikely until 2026 amid U.S. tariff pressures.
Differential: ~1.75% in favor of EUR, though ECB easing may narrow this gap.
Yield Curve Dynamics
Eurozone 10-Year Bond Yield: 3.14% (May 15, 2025), above the long-term average of 2.47% but down from recent peaks.
Japan 10-Year Bond Yield: 1.52% (May 20, 2025), reflecting BoJ’s ultra-loose policy and weak growth.
Yield Spread: 1.62% (Eurozone vs. Japan), down from earlier highs as ECB cuts loom.
Key Drivers
ECB Policy and Growth:
Eurozone Q1 GDP grew 0.3% QoQ, outperforming expectations, but U.S. tariffs (20% on EU exports starting July) threaten future growth.
ECB’s dovish pivot contrasts with BoJ’s passive stance, narrowing the rate differential.
BoJ’s Quantitative Tightening:
Reduced bond purchases (cut to ¥425 billion in May) signal tentative policy tightening, temporarily supporting JPY.
Japan’s Q1 GDP contracted -0.7% annualized, driven by weak exports and stagnant consumption.
Bond Yield Shrinkage:
The 2-year yield spread between German Bunds and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) has narrowed, reducing EUR’s appeal.
Technical analysis suggests a potential bearish reversal for EUR/JPY, with a break below 155.45 triggering a multi-month downtrend.
Directional Bias
Near-Term: Neutral-to-Bearish
ECB rate cuts and yield spread shrinkage offset EUR’s yield advantage.
JPY gains limited by BoJ’s delayed hikes and weak growth, but reduced QE provides temporary support.
Medium-Term: Bearish Risks
Escalating U.S.-EU/Japan trade tensions may amplify safe-haven JPY demand.
Summary Table
Factor EUR Impact JPY Impact EUR/JPY Bias
ECB Rate Cuts Weakens EUR – Bearish
BoJ Dovish Hold – Weakens JPY Bullish
Eurozone Growth (0.3%) Mild support – Neutral
Japan’s GDP Contraction – Pressures JPY Bullish
Yield Spread Shrinkage Reduces EUR appeal Boosts JPY attractiveness Bearish
Conclusion:
EUR/JPY faces increasing bearish pressure from narrowing rate differentials, yield curve dynamics, and technical breakdown risks. While the ECB’s higher rates and Eurozone growth resilience provide near-term support, medium-term headwinds from ECB easing and JPY strength dominate the outlook. Traders should monitor ECB communications (June 19) and BoJ policy signals for shifts in momentum.
#ECB#EURJPY #FOREX
SMC Trap = Clean CHoCH + OB Long, Targeting Liquidity Sweep!We’re tracking a textbook Smart Money Concept (SMC) long setup on EURJPY, 30M timeframe, with clear structure shift and clean OB entry. Here's the full breakdown for traders:
🔄 Market Structure Shift:
Major bearish trend visible from previous candles.
Sharp rejection followed by a Change of Character (CHoCH) indicating possible bullish reversal.
🧱 Order Block Zone:
Price swept liquidity to the downside and tapped into a marked Bullish Order Block at 162.195–162.266.
Entry triggered within this OB zone, with tight risk placement below Strong Low.
🔁 Entry Setup:
Entry: Inside OB at 162.266
Stop Loss: Just below the OB at 162.195 (Strong Low protected)
TP1: 70.50% retracement near 162.650
TP2: Full Buy Side Liquidity sweep @ 162.768 (Weak High Targeted)
🧮 RRR (Risk-to-Reward):
Approximate RRR: 1:6+ — High probability trade if market structure follows through.
🧲 Key Levels Highlighted:
🔹 CHoCH confirms shift to bullish
🔹 OB Zone: High confluence with liquidity grab + candle imbalance
🔹 Buy Side Liquidity: Obvious target for institutions
🔹 Weak High: Ready to be taken out
📈 What To Watch For:
Bullish continuation towards 162.768
Strong impulsive move breaking above minor resistance
Potential re-entries on lower TF OBs (5M–15M)
🧠 Pro Tip for Traders:
Don’t chase—wait for CHoCH + OB confirmation combo. This type of setup works best when confluence aligns: OB + CHoCH + liquidity sweep = 🔥