EURUSD High Probability H4 LongTrend is up
Stop loss behind solid support level
We expect market to continue upwards, especially if go down to the support level
Can create another entry pending order exactly on support which would give 6:1 RR
We enter now in case market doesn't reach support and continues to target
EURUSD trade ideas
EUR/USD Buy EUR/USD pull-back long
Buy-limit at 1.1460
Stop-loss at 1.1395
Take-profit 1 at 1.1560 – when this first target is reached, move the stop to breakeven
Take-profit 2 at 1.1630
Condition: keep the order active only while the daily candle continues to close at or above 1.1445.
Expiry: if the order hasn’t been filled after five full trading days, cancel it and reassess.
EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis (ONDA)Euro/US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate over a 4-hour interval, sourced from ONDA. The current rate is 1.16177, reflecting a 0.08% increase (+0.00093). The chart highlights a recent upward trend, with a resistance level around 1.16746 and a support zone between 1.15439 and 1.16000, as indicated by the shaded areas. The time frame covers late June to early July 2025.
EURUSDShorting EUR/USD means you expect the euro to weaken against the U.S. dollar. In other words, you believe the dollar will gain strength or the euro will lose value — or both.
Reasons traders might short EUR/USD:
• The U.S. economy is performing better than the eurozone.
• Interest rates are rising faster in the U.S. than in Europe.
• Political or economic instability in the eurozone.
• Investors seeking safety in the dollar during global uncertainty.
Market next target 🔁 Disrupted Analysis (Bullish Scenario Instead of Bearish)
1. Price in an Upward Channel:
The price remains within a clear ascending channel, respecting both upper and lower bounds.
The bearish arrow prematurely predicts a breakdown while no support break has occurred.
2. Strong Bullish Momentum:
Price is making higher highs and higher lows, a textbook bullish structure.
The recent dip respected the lower trendline and was followed by strong green candles.
3. Volume Confirmation:
Notice the increasing bullish volume on the recent push higher.
That suggests buyers are still in control, contradicting the bearish prediction.
4. Invalidation of Bearish Breakdown:
Until the lower blue trendline is clearly broken with volume, the bearish target is speculative.
Support is holding at 1.1610–1.1600 zone, which may become a launchpad for further gains.
EURUSD: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 1.16242 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
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EUR/USD Hits Weekly High as Ceasefire Weakens DollarEUR/USD climbed to a fresh weekly high near 1.1610 during late Asian trading on Tuesday, boosted by a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran by President Donald Trump. The truce improved market risk appetite and dampened demand for traditional safe havens like the US Dollar. As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped steeply from Monday’s two-week high of 99.42 to around 98.10.
The dollar also came under pressure from shifting expectations around Fed policy. On Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman signaled support for a potential rate cut as early as the July meeting, citing rising concerns over the labor market. “We should put more weight on downside risks to the job market,” she stated, adding that it's time to consider adjusting the policy rate.
Her dovish tone nudged up expectations for a July rate cut, with CME FedWatch data showing the probability rising from 14.5% on Friday to 22.7%.
In the Eurozone, ECB officials expressed concerns over the region’s economic outlook, particularly considering new US tariff policies. President Christine Lagarde, in remarks to the European Parliament, warned that inflation staying near the 2% target is uncertain and noted that survey data points to “some weaker prospects for economic activity in the near term.” She added that risks to growth remain “tilted to the downside.”
Resistance is located at 1.1630, while support is seen at 1.1530.
The Day Ahead Key Economic Data:
US:
Consumer confidence (June)
Regional business activity from Philadelphia Fed and Richmond Fed
House prices (April, FHFA)
Q1 current account balance
Germany:
Ifo business sentiment survey (June)
Canada:
Consumer price inflation (May)
Central Bank Activity:
US Federal Reserve:
Chair Powell testifies before Congress
Other Fed officials (Hammack, Williams, Collins, Barr) also speak
European Central Bank (ECB):
President Lagarde, Guindos, and Lane give remarks
Bank of England (BoE):
Governor Bailey and other key members (Greene, Ramsden, Breeden) speak
Corporate Earnings:
Key results from FedEx and Carnival
Government Bond Auctions:
US Treasury sells 2-year notes
Other Events:
NATO Summit continues (ends June 25)
China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee meets (through June 27)
Summary:
It’s a heavy day for central bank speeches, led by Fed Chair Powell. Markets will also be watching Canadian inflation and US confidence data for clues on growth and rate paths. The NATO summit and China’s NPC meeting add geopolitical weight, while FedEx earnings may provide insight into global demand trends.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
#AN010: De-Escalation, ECB, Oil Prices and more
Hi, I’m Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today we’re going to take a look at this week’s news. Thank you all for the great number of readers I’m receiving these days.
Don’t forget that by visiting my website, you can also connect with me on other platforms and you can also find exclusive Benefits for my readers.
🔶 Key Highlights of the Week
ECB’s Villeroy Confirms Rate-Cut Bias Amid Energy Volatility
Governor François Villeroy de Galhau signaled that the European Central Bank remains open to further rate cuts—even with recent oil-price volatility—due to a strong euro and controlled inflation
Oil Prices Surge—and Recede—on Iran Tensions and Ceasefire News
U.S. strikes on Iran triggered at 5–7% spike in crude, pushing Brent above $77/barrel, before plummeting as ceasefire sentiment returned
Dovish Shift at the Fed
Multiple Fed officials (Bowman, Waller, Goolsbee) openly support a July rate cut, shifting dollar sentiment
Emerging-Market Pressure: Indian Rupee in Focus
Rising oil costs and geopolitical instability weigh on the INR, prompting potential RBI intervention
Geopolitical De-escalation Eases Market Risk
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp retreat in oil, boosted equities globally, and weakened safe-haven USD and gold
-Forex Market Reactions: What Traders Need to Know
EUR/USD:
Rate-cut window in Europe: The ECB's dovish tone softens EUR's upside, while oil volatility now has less impact.
USD weakness: Dovish Fed commentary has dented dollar strength
Key chart signals: A sustained break below 1.0670 could open further downside toward 1.0600–1.0535.
USD/JPY:
Choppy action off failed breakouts near 148.00—watch for JPY resilience risk amid risk-off repricing
AUD/USD & Other Emerging Currencies:
Oil-driven FX pressure affecting the AUD—tracked via crude sensitivity.
The Indian rupee weakness hints at broader emerging-market stress in risk-sensitive currencies
🛠️ Strategy & Outlook for Traders
Theme Implication for FX
Fed dovishness Dollar softness → supports EUR, JPY, EM currencies
ECB policy flexibility Cap on EUR gains → neutral bias until data confirms
Oil volatility Medium-term risk for AUD, CAD, NOK, RUB
Geopolitical calm Risk-on sentiment → pressure on safe-haven USD & JPY
🎯 Trade Setups:
EUR/USD: Short on fall below 1.0670—target 1.0600–1.0535; stop above 1.0760.
AUD/USD: Short biased if oil sustains above $75; aligned with broader commodity-driven themes.
USD/JPY: Watch for continuation short if risk appetite returns; else, trade reversals at 148.00 key.
EURUSD shortIn my previous analysis in Friday, June 20, I had short pending order on this pair.
Due to US attack on Iran base's over the weekend, I closed it and put another pending short position visible here.
SL: 1.1582
Entry: 1.1550
TP: 1.1357
I expect higher volatility today, but don't expect bigger jump to the upside, so my risk:reward is bigger now.
I expect the price to clean Friday high's and go down again.
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D24 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D24 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily order block
✅15' order block
✅Intraday breaks of structure
✅4H Order block
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Euro H4 | Potential reversal off a multi-swing-high resistanceThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.1609 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 1.1675 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 1.1535 which is a pullback support that aligns with a 50% Fiboancci retracement.
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EURUSD – Rejected at 1.16100, bearish pressure re-emergingEURUSD has just completed a technical rebound toward the 1.16100 resistance zone, which has previously rejected price multiple times. The current structure suggests a mild reversal, with a potential pullback toward 1.15378. A break below this support could extend the decline toward 1.14600.
Recent upside momentum came mainly from temporary USD weakness, but the greenback remains supported by expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated, while Eurozone PMI data continues to disappoint.
In summary, 1.16100 remains a key resistance level. If price shows clear rejection here, EURUSD may be poised for a deeper correction in the short term.
EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart - OANDA1-hour period, provided by OANDA. The current rate is 1.16038, reflecting a 0.22% increase (+0.00252). The chart shows recent price movements, with a notable upward trend and highlighted resistance (1.16095) and support (1.15574) levels. The time frame spans from 13:00 to 28:00, with candlestick patterns indicating market activity.
EURUSD Trading Strategy for the WeekEURUSD is reacting at the support zone of 1.14500. This is an important support zone that helps EURUSD continue to maintain its upward momentum. The uptrend in the h4 time frame is still strong and heading towards the peak of 1.161.
Below the support of 1.145 will be the 1.138 zone. When this 1.138 zone is broken, it confirms that a Downtrend is established. The possibility of breaking this zone is not high, so it is still possible to set BUY signals around these support zones. On the other hand, 1.153 is an important resistance zone in the near future where the pair will have a price reaction before finding the peak of last week.
Support: 1.13800
Resistance: 1.16000
Break out: 1.14600-1.15300
Recommended good trading strategy:
Trade when price confirms in Break out zone.
BUY 1.13800-1.13600 Stoploss 1.13300
SELL 1.16000-1.16200 Stoploss 1.16500