dxy bearish ideadxy rejected from weekly fvg and expecting it to fall after tapping the volume imbalance which is also in the premium zone
USDX trade ideas
dxy bias ideaThe previously mentioned bias idea played out well. A pump was caused due to trump eu tariff situation.
Now if we get a weekly closing below this low we can see a further lower push. Amid current unclear fundamental situations this can be invalid.
DYOR this is just my pov (im a noob)
Price action If the 30 min candle close above the red line I'll resume selling Gbpusd currently sitting on my hands
Dollar Falling Ends Soon? Look What Pattern Is Forming!”Asset: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Timeframe: 1D (Daily Chart)
Methodology: Elliott Wave + FVG (Fair Value Gap) + Price Action
DXY has completed an impulsive 5-wave bearish structure, now entering a high-probability reversal zone marked by strong buyer interest around the Wave 5 bottom.
📌 Key Insights:
Wave 5 approaching demand zone (Buyers' area)
Price inside Fair Value Gap (FVG) – potential order block
Bullish reversal expected from here
Forecast: A breakout into an ascending channel, confirming reversal
💡 If Wave 5 holds, we may see a sharp upside rally aligning with smart money accumulation + Elliott Wave psychology.
🔔 Watch for bullish confirmations near 97.50–98.00 for a potential long setup targeting the 104–107 zone.
DXY has lost it...Despite what the news have been telling us, price action is indicating that it's heavy on the sellside delivery. The news failure so far has supported the Bears. We may see continue weakness until proven otherwise.
DXY 4hr chart Analaysis It is possible that the DXY may retrace back to the 101.208 level, which previously marked the beginning of a bearish move. Alternatively, it could also resume a bearish trend from its current level or around the 99.80 zone. The market at this point requires heightened caution.
A potential bearish entry could be considered if DXY breaks below the 98.66 – 98.30 support area. A clear break of this level would confirm a fully established bearish trend, with a likely continuation towards the 94.00 – 93.00 range. From there, a bullish momentum may be anticipated.
DXY H4 – Dollar Weakens Ahead of PPI Release DXY H4 – Dollar Weakens Ahead of PPI Release | Is the Market Pricing in a Fed Pivot?
🌐 Macro & Fundamental Context
As we head into the New York session on June 12, the market’s attention shifts to one critical data point: the US PPI (Producer Price Index). Following the softer-than-expected CPI reading of 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.5% forecast), the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply—signaling fading inflation pressure and reigniting rate cut expectations.
✅ Bearish Fundamentals Building for the USD:
CPI miss fuels Fed rate cut bets (currently ~65% chance for September per FedWatch Tool).
US Treasury yields are easing, reflecting the market’s pricing of a less aggressive Fed.
Risk assets rallying as capital flows rotate away from USD into gold, equities, and long-duration bonds.
If today’s PPI also comes in below forecast, it could confirm a deeper correction in DXY. Conversely, a surprise PPI upside might trigger a short-term pullback.
📉 Technical Analysis – H4 Timeframe
🔹 Overall Trend:
DXY is locked within a clearly defined descending channel, with a consistent Lower High – Lower Low structure holding since late May.
🔹 Key Technical Zones:
Short-term resistance: 98.548 – likely to act as a ceiling unless PPI surprises to the upside.
Immediate support: 97.966 – a break below opens the door toward the key support zone at 97.191, which aligns with previous FVG imbalance and multi-timeframe demand.
🔹 EMA Structure:
Price remains below all major EMAs (13 – 34 – 89 – 200), confirming persistent bearish pressure.
EMA13 is currently acting as dynamic resistance on H4, pressing down on price.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Flow Insight
Investors are rotating out of USD as inflation fears fade and Fed easing expectations increase.
Risk-on sentiment is returning, benefiting gold and stocks while weighing on DXY.
However, a hot PPI print could spook the market briefly, leading to a corrective bounce in the Dollar before the trend resumes.
🔍 Scenarios to Watch:
PPI comes in lower than expected:
DXY may retest 98.548 resistance and reject lower.
Next targets: 97.966 → 97.191
PPI surprises to the upside:
Technical bounce toward 98.5–98.8 possible.
But trend remains bearish unless price reclaims 99.2+ zone.
✅ Conclusion
DXY remains under pressure from both macro and technical angles. The PPI report will be the next catalyst that determines whether this is a short-term dip or the continuation of a broader USD downtrend.
🎯 Tactical view: Favour short positions on DXY if price bounces into resistance and PPI supports the disinflation narrative. Target: 97.1 and below.
USDX TEMPORAL UPSIDE??The DXY looks set to take out the immediate low — all eyes on that level. Once it’s cleared, we’ll watch for signs of a possible retracement or reversal to the upside. If no such move occurs, the DXY is likely to continue its decline."
DXY Will Grow! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 98.198.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 98.620 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USDX-NEUTRAL BUY strategy 3 hourly GANN SQThe index is changing tune, but we should comfortably move beyond 98.60 before I feel we may have a chance to test 99.10 area. The chances are there, and perhaps this is start ofmit, but kindly wait and see a confirmation for it.
Strategy BUY @ 98.50-98.75 (on break) and take profit near 99.78 for now.
DXY. Midterm Analysis of the US Dollar IndexHey traders and investors!
📍 Context
On the monthly timeframe, the market was in a range. The price broke above the upper boundary and was long supported around the 101.080 level. This level was repeatedly tested by sellers and now appears to have been broken.
📊 Monthly targets: 89.20 and 88.300.
🔎 Analysis
Why might the downward movement continue?
Daily TF
On the daily chart, we can see that on the day buyers returned to the 101.080 level, the main volume was accumulated in a buyer candle right at and slightly above the level. This suggests the level was defended by sellers. This indicates they are currently in control, and the decline may continue. Let’s look at the nearest potential buyer activity levels.
11-day TF
The price has once again broken downward out of the range. Below, there is a small consolidation area formed during the previous upward movement. Its boundaries are: upper boundary — 97.385, lower boundary — 94.589.
🎯 Trade Idea: Rebounds from the upper boundary at 97.385 are possible, but overall the priority remains with a move into this range and towards the 95.00–94.589 zone.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
DXY Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY keeps going down
But the strong horizontal
Support is ahead around 98.000
So after the price hit the level
We will be expecting a
Local rebound and a move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY Ready to Reload? Eyes on 99.100 as Tariff Tensions Ease!!Hey Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, we're closely monitoring the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 99.100 zone. After trending lower for a while, the dollar index has successfully broken out of its downtrend and is now entering a corrective phase.
We’re watching the 99.100 support/resistance area closely, as it aligns with a key retracement level making it a strong candidate for a bullish reaction.
On the fundamental side, Friday's NFP data came in slightly above expectations, which is typically USD-positive. In addition, recent Trump-led de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff tensions is another supportive factor for the dollar.
Trade safe, Joe.
DXY ready for free fall?DXY at 99.39 strong liquidity grab then rejected back to the support level then following a head and shoulder, price completely has broker out of the support with CPI, it has finally managed break out of consolidation.
As the impulse has volume, we may see further drop to the monthly support 97.93 and may potentially break below as there is FVG which may slide the price further down.
DXY Monthly Analysis | Smart Money Concept + CHoCH BreakdownPair: US Dollar Index (DXY)
Timeframe: 1M (Monthly)
Strategy: Smart Money Concept (SMC) + Market Structure + Demand/Supply Zones
Bias: Bearish (Mid to Long-Term)
Breakdown:
Price reacted strongly from the monthly supply zone (110–104), showing signs of exhaustion.
Clear CHoCH (Change of Character) visible at the top structure, confirming loss of bullish intent.
Internal structure printed a liquidity sweep + FVG (Fair Value Gap) ➝ BOS ➝ lower low.
Current PA (price action) is targeting the first demand zone near 92–94, but major interest lies at the macro demand zone (85.100–84.900).
This level aligns with unmitigated historical demand and potential long-term accumulation range.
---
📅 Projection:
Expecting a continuation to the downside after retesting minor imbalance zones.
Potential multi-year bearish leg forming Wave 3 (macro view).
Ideal accumulation/buy zone: 85.100–84.900 – if structure supports.
---
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Supply Zone: 110.800 – 104.600
CHoCH Level: ~102.300
Short-Term Demand: 92.000 – 94.000
Long-Term Demand (Institutional Interest): 85.100 – 84.900
---
💡 Conclusion: Smart Money has exited from premium pricing, and the macro structure aligns with a bearish transition. As long as price respects current lower highs, we may see a deeper correction or possible trend reversal near 85 levels.
---
🧠 #DXY #SmartMoney #CHoCH #ForexAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #Forex #Month
Just got the May US CPIs. PPIs next...Here is the reaction in the US instruments to the numbers. Let's dig in.
TVC:DXY
TVC:DJI
MARKETSCOM:US500
MARKETSCOM:US100
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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What to Expect from CPI Data and the Key Dollar Levels to WatchDollar index trading in a tight range ahead of the CPI data.
US inflation is expected to rise by 0.1% on a yearly basis for both headline and core figures, reaching 2.4% and 2.9% respectively. Markets expect some of the effects of tariffs to begin showing up in this data.
There are both downside and upside risks to the release, but in our view, a slightly lower-than-expected result is more probable. Frontloading of goods before tariffs took place, slowing economic activity, downward price pressure in parts of the services sector due to weaker-than-usual tourism, lower energy costs, and ongoing disinflation suggest that the impact of tariffs may remain limited in this month’s data and possibly the next as well.
If the data remains unchanged and comes in below expectations, the initial reaction could be negative for the dollar due to rising rate cut expectations. However, unless there is a significant surprise in either direction, today’s data is unlikely to meaningfully change the Fed’s economic outlook or rate policy. The inflationary effects of tariffs are expected to appear gradually, due to the frontloading of goods ahead of the tariff implementation.
For the Dollar Index, the 97.90 and 99.10 levels will be key. If the downtrend breaks, the ongoing gradual decline of the dollar may pause, allowing for a limited rebound. However, a drop below 97.90 could trigger another leg down, similar to previous moves.
A side note on inflation:
Sometimes, year-on-year figures alone are not enough to provide a clear picture due to base effects. Starting this month, the base effect turns positive for yearly comparisons.
If inflation is to return to the 2% target steadily, month-on-month inflation needs to remain at or below 0.2%. For example, twelve consecutive months of 0.2% monthly inflation results in a 2.22% annual CPI. In contrast, twelve straight months of 0.3% monthly inflation would lead to a 3.35% annual rate.
Dollar on the move now after the news - as expectedQuick follow up on other videos
Dollar is heading strong towards our target as outlined for the last few weeks. If you followed all my videos you would see where markey technicals came into play the last few weeks
Beautiful read on this
Dollar Index Eyes FVG Breakout Ahead of CPIDXY 11/06 – Dollar Index Eyes FVG Breakout Ahead of CPI | Reversal Risk After 100.31?
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to consolidate within a rising channel on the H2 timeframe, with price tightening just ahead of a key macro event — the US CPI report. DXY is now approaching a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, where liquidity hunts and potential reversals become highly probable.
🌐 MACRO OUTLOOK & MARKET SENTIMENT
📌 US CPI (June 12):
The main macro driver for DXY this week.
A hotter-than-expected print → strengthens the Fed’s hawkish stance → DXY likely to spike.
A weaker-than-expected CPI → boosts rate cut expectations → downside pressure on DXY.
📌 Risk Sentiment:
Institutions are readjusting their exposure ahead of CPI and FOMC. This has caused DXY to hover near EMA89 — a sign of indecision.
📌 Cross-asset Flows (Bonds & Gold):
Treasury yields are stable, but surprises in CPI could lead to capital rotation between gold and USD, increasing volatility in XAUUSD and DXY simultaneously.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Trend Structure:
DXY is following a clean ascending channel on H2, with higher lows respecting the lower trendline.
EMA Confluence (13–34–89–200)
Price is consolidating near EMA89 and below EMA200 (99.40), forming a neutral short-term bias.
A clean breakout above EMA200 could trigger acceleration into the FVG zone.
Key FVG Zone (H2):
99.63 – 100.31 is an unfilled Fair Value Gap.
This zone may act as a magnet for price before any meaningful rejection or breakout.
Potential Reversal Area:
A rejection at 100.31 could trigger a sharp pullback toward the liquidity zone around 98.68.
🧠 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
CPI will set the tone for DXY’s mid-term trend.
Watch the 99.63 – 100.31 FVG zone for liquidity sweeps and potential rejection.
Wait for confirmation, not prediction — especially in macro-sensitive environments.
Dollar - Slowly Drifting downQuick video on Yesterdays/Todays price action in relation to our target
CRYPTO CORRELATION WITH DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is probing 99-100—the same lower-rail support of its 14-year ascending channel that caught the 2011, 2015 and 2021 inflection points and launched the 2016 and 2022 dollar surges
macrotrends.net
forex.com
. History shows that when the dollar sinks beneath this zone (April 2017 and June 2020) Bitcoin has ripped 10-fold or more within months
cointelegraph.com
, whereas a sharp bounce from here (September 2022 above 110) coincided with BTC’s plunge to the cycle low near $16 k
forex.com
coindesk.com
. The macro backdrop currently favours at least a reflex rally: the Fed’s latest survey and dot-plot point to “higher-for-longer” policy with only two cuts pencilled in for 2025
reuters.com
finance.yahoo.com
, 10-year Treasuries still yield about 4.7 %—a near-cycle high that supports dollar carry demand
wsj.com
, and U.S. growth has just been revised up to 2.7 % for 2025 while euro-area PMIs languish in contraction and the ECB is already easing
mdm.com
ecb.europa.eu
. Add in lingering negative BTC-DXY correlation metrics
coindesk.com
and the structural importance of the psychologically charged 100 level, and this pivot becomes a practical timing gauge: a sustained break below 99 would clear the way for the next broad crypto bull-phase, whereas a confirmed dollar rebound warns that any exuberance in digital assets could mark a cyclical top.
