GBPJPY trade ideas
GJ-Wed-28/05/25 TDA-GJ pulling back ahead of FOMC minutes!Analysis done directly on the chart
Follow for more, possible live trades update!
Today's FOCUS: market positioning
You can have good trade idea, BUT
you still get stopped out with loss or
break even (BE). And one of the reasons
why is your market positioning.
To solve this problem one of the good
ways is to understand firstly the higher
timeframe structure.
Ask yourself:
Am I inside the range?
Is price is breaking out of range?
ETC...
Comment down below if this was useful!
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
GBPJPY Sell Setup- Go for sell only when entry setup given
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if you know how
- keep looking for sell even if price goes one more up
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GBPJPYGBP/JPY 10-Year Bond Yield and Interest Rate Differential
1. UK 10-Year Gilt Yield
As of May 21, 2025, the UK 10-year gilt yield was approximately 4.77%, near its highest level since April 2025, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data (April CPI at 3.5% YoY, core inflation 3.8%) and reduced expectations of Bank of England rate cuts.
The Bank of England’s official interest rate stood at 4.25% in May 2025, down from 4.5%, but markets now price in limited further easing for the rest of the year.
2. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield
As of May 21, 2025, the Japan 10-year government bond yield was around 1.52% to 1.55%, remaining near a one-month high amid improving trade data and cautious market sentiment.
The Bank of Japan maintains a very accommodative monetary policy, with policy rates near zero, keeping yields low despite some inflationary pressures.
3. Interest Rate Differential (10-Year Bonds)
The yield spread between UK and Japan 10-year bonds is:
4.77% (UK)−1.53% (Japan)=+3.24%
This significant positive differential favors the British pound against the Japanese yen from a carry trade perspective.
4. Carry Trade Implications for GBP/JPY
The +3.24% yield advantage makes GBP/JPY attractive for carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yielding JPY and invest in higher-yielding GBP assets to earn the interest spread.
The wide differential supports GBP/JPY strength, assuming stable risk sentiment and no major shocks.
Technical momentum and macroeconomic factors such as UK inflation data, BoJ policy stance, and global risk appetite will influence the pair’s trajectory in the coming week.
Summary Table
Metric United Kingdom (GBP) Japan (JPY)
10-Year Bond Yield ~4.77% ~1.53%
Interest Rate Differential +3.24% (GBP over JPY) —
Central Bank Policy Rate 4.25% (BoE) ~0% (BoJ)
Conclusion
From May 27 to June 4, 2025, the GBP/JPY pair benefits from a substantial 3.24% interest rate differential between UK and Japanese 10-year bonds, supporting carry trade flows into GBP. The Bank of England’s relatively higher rates and inflationary pressures contrast with the Bank of Japan’s ultra-accommodative policy, underpinning GBP strength versus JPY.
GBP/JPY Short Currently GBP/JPY buyers are looking exhausted as it starts to enter a key sell zone on the Daily and Lower time frames. Expecting price to give a discount at 194.000 and bring big buyers back in. First Take profit I anticipate is 194.750, followed by 194.500. If these levels are reached price should react off this key support and resistence area and push for a higher highs on the lower time frames.
GBPJPY Trade Setup Analysis – Bullish Momentum Brewing🔍 Technical Overview
Pair: GBPJPY
Chart Type: Candlestick
Indicators Used:
EMA 50 (Red) ➖ Short-term trend
EMA 200 (Blue) ➖ Long-term trend
🧱 Key Levels
🟣 Resistance Zone: 195.300 – 196.000
🟪 Intermediate Resistance/Support Flip: 193.000 – 193.700
🟦 Support Zone: 191.500 – 192.300
📈 Bullish Structure Observed
Support Bounce 🔁
Price found strong support around the 192.300 level (confluence of support zone + EMA 200 bounce) 💪
Break Above Resistance Flip 🔓
Price recently broke above the mid-zone (~193.300), flipping it into a potential new support. This indicates bullish pressure is increasing. ⚡
EMA Crossover Confirmation ✅
Price is now trading above both the EMA 50 and EMA 200 – a bullish alignment.
🔮 Projection & Trade Bias
📍 Current Price: 193.744
📈 Bullish Target: Resistance zone at ~196.000
📉 Invalidation: Break and close below 192.200
💡 Expected Move:
A retest of the 193.300 zone could offer a high-probability buy entry, targeting a full move to the top resistance range. 📦
⚠️ Risk Management Note
Always apply:
🎯 Defined entry + stop-loss (SL) below 192.000
💰 Risk:Reward at least 1:2
🛡️ Adjust size according to volatility
🧠 Summary
The pair is showing bullish structure recovery with confluence at key EMAs and a resistance-turn-support breakout. A rally toward the 196.000 region is highly likely if current structure holds. 📊🔥
GBPJPY: Will Price Touch a Major Psychological Point Of 200? The GBPJPY currency pair is currently struggling to break through the 194 region as the Japanese yen (JPY) consolidates, making the future price trajectory uncertain. This situation has significantly complicated trading JPY pairs.
Analysing historical price behaviour in similar circumstances can provide insights into potential future movements, but it’s crucial to conduct thorough research before engaging in trading. Past performance doesn’t guarantee adherence to chart trends.
The Japanese yen (JPY) also exhibits a negative correlation with the US dollar (USD). Given our bullish stance on the DXY index in the coming days, we anticipate substantial pressure on the JPY, potentially leading to a significant decline. It’s also worth considering the GBP, which has surged to prominence as one of the most sought-after currencies since the market opened earlier today.
In the meantime, we recommend setting two take-profit targets: one at 197 and another at 199. These levels are likely to witness substantial bearish volume entering the market.
We wish you successful trading and emphasise the importance of adhering to safety protocols.
We appreciate your unwavering support and encourage you to contribute by liking, commenting, or sharing our ideas.
Team Setupsfx_
❤️🚀
GBPJPY - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Strong bullish move.
Higher highs on the moving averages of the MACD.
No opposite signs.
Expecting further continuation higher until the two Fibonacci support zones hold.
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GBPJPY 4hr chart Analaysis I expect GBP/JPY to turn bullish, with a potential pullback from the 191.67–191.00 zone. It’s also possible that the price slightly dips lower, reaching around 190.50, before starting a bullish trend. From there, the price may rise towards the reversal zone at 195.38–196.00.
If it breaks above this zone, the next target could be around 198.04. That level is where I expect a potential bearish reversal to occur.
This is my personal analysis based on my current understanding of the market — it's not guaranteed to be 100% accurate, but I would estimate there's around an 80% probability of it playing out this way
GJ-Tue-27/05/25 TDA-4hFVG respected, possible upside continue!Analysis done directly on the chart
Follow for more, possible live trades update!
Consolidation, structure, breakout
Again
Consolidation, structure, breakout
Market is fractal, it repeats itself again
and again. But to understand it deeply,
it's not easy at all.
Not financial advice, DYOR.
Market Flow Strategy
Mister Y
STEAL THIS TRADE! GBP/JPY Long Setup(Thief Trader’s Secret Plan)💰 Thief Trader’s GBP/JPY Heist Alert – Stealthy Long Setup Loading!
🌍 Greetings, Profit Raiders!
Hola, Konnichiwa, Ni Hao, Privyet, Hallo, Bonjour!
📢 Attention Market Bandits & Chart Pirates—the GBP/JPY Beast is ripe for plunder! Time to execute the next Thief Trader Masterplan.
🎯 Entry Zone – Loot the Dip!
Current price = Open vault. Fire longs now or snipe pullbacks (15M/30M charts recent swing low level).
Pro Thief Move: Stack buy limits near swing lows/highs. Chart alerts = your secret weapon. 🔫
🛑 Stop Loss – Guard the Treasure!
Swing Thieves: Hide SL below 4H swing low (~190.000).
Day Raiders: Adjust SL to your risk size & order count. No free rides!
🎯 Profit Target – Escape with the Gold!
Take the 200.000 bag or exit early if momentum fades.
🔪 Scalpers vs. Swingers – Choose Your Weapon!
Scalpers (Quick Strikes): Longs only. No distractions.
Swing Traders (Patient Hunters): Trail stops & lock in gains.
🌪️ Market Pulse – Bullish Winds Blowing!
Price battling MA Resistance? No panic. Bulls still rule thanks to:
Fundamentals + Macro Trends
COT Data + Sentiment Shift
Quant Scores & Intermarket Alignments
(Check Linkss for the full heist blueprint.)
⚠️ News Trap Warning!
Upcoming high-impact events? Freeze trades or tighten stops. Trailing SL = your escape route.
🚨 Join the Thief Trading Crew!
Like 👍 or Boost 🚀 this idea to fuel our next raid.
Thief Trader Tactics = Daily Market Domination. Your support keeps the heists alive! 💰❤️
🤑 Stay Locked In – The Next Big Score is Coming…
Timing is everything. Watch the charts. Strike hard. Exit smarter.
GBPJPY H1 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 193.49, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 192.83, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.6% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss is set at 194.19, a swing high resistance.
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GBP-JPY Resistance Cluster! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-JPY made a retest
Of the resistance cluster
Of the rising and horizontal
Resistance lines around 193.989
And we are already seeing a
Bearish reaction so we will be
Expecting a further bearish
Move down
Sell!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBPJPY Monday candle closed as bullish engulf..Buyers in controlMonday daily candle closed as bullish engulf hinting that this pair is starting to going up.
Where to enter buy?
Zoom in into smaller timeframe 4hr, 1hr, 15min and wait for the buy price action.
Personally, i would like to see the price to react at "Resistant become Support" zone that i marked in the chart.
No price action in lower TF, no trade.
Good luck.
calculate your own risk & reward.