GBPUSD trade ideas
GBP/USDPrice action trading is a methodology in financial markets where traders make decisions based on the actual price movements of an asset over time, rather than relying heavily on technical indicators or fundamental analysis. It involves observing and interpreting patterns and trends in price charts to predict future price movements.
GBPUSD politics and the upcoming NFPFX_IDC:GBPUSD trading was influenced by politics in UK. The pair recovered half of the losses, but the downside risk still remains. NFP could be a trigger. Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:GBPUSD
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GBPUSD – Pound Stumbles on Political Risk and NFP FearGBPUSD – Pound Stumbles on Political Risk and NFP Fear: Reversal or Breakdown?
🧭 MACRO SNAPSHOT – All Eyes on UK Politics and US Jobs
The British Pound came under renewed pressure on Wednesday, losing nearly 0.8% intraday, driven largely by escalating political uncertainty in the UK. Concerns over early elections, party leadership instability, and fiscal doubts have weighed on GBP sentiment.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains supported ahead of the June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release. With recent labor data showing signs of weakness (ADP: -33K), today’s NFP is expected to shape short-term Fed expectations. A weak report may cap USD gains and provide a rebound opportunity for GBP – but risk is two-sided.
📊 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – H4 Chart Insights:
Trend Channel: GBPUSD is still trading within an ascending channel, but recent rejection at 1.3769 raises caution.
EMA Signals: Price has broken below EMA 13 and 34, showing momentum loss. EMA 89 is the next possible support near 1.3570.
Fibonacci Zones:
0.382: 1.3543
0.5: 1.3466
0.618: 1.3390
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 1.3681 – 1.3769
Support: 1.3570 – 1.3450 (golden pocket)
The price is likely to test the midline or lower bound of the channel before resuming a move higher, assuming macro tailwinds don’t intensify GBP selling.
🎯 TRADE PLAN:
🔵 Buy Setup (Reversal from Demand Zone):
Entry: 1.3450 – 1.3460
SL: 1.3390
TP: 1.3570 → 1.3680 → 1.3760
Bias: Counter-trend rebound from golden pocket & ascending trendline
🔴 Sell Setup (Short-term pullback):
Entry: 1.3680 – 1.3700
SL: 1.3765
TP: 1.3570 → 1.3450
Bias: Fade weak bullish momentum near prior high resistance
📌 Risk Context:
Today’s US NFP report is high-impact – expect volatility spikes and spread widening. UK political headlines could cause gaps or sharp reversals. Traders are advised to reduce size or wait for clear rejection/confirmation candles before entry.
GBPUSD swing shortKeeping yesterday long open after taking profit setting limits for short swing on GPBUSD with fraction of profits of yesterday, price did close above weekly high so caution advised
GBPUSD M30 IdeaPotential for a bullish pullback on the GBPUSD M30 which could lead to a price movement towards the resistance level at 1.37200. BUY levels from 1.36400
DeGRAM | GBPUSD preparing for a correction📊 Technical Analysis
● Cable is pressing the rising-channel ceiling together with the March swing-high supply at 1.378-1.380; successive long-upper-wicks plus fading 4 h RSI signal bull exhaustion at this dual resistance.
● A tiny evening-star has formed inside the pink resistance band and price is slipping back under the broken inner trend-line; first objective is the former breakout shelf / median line near 1.360, with the lower rail and April pivot at 1.343 next in view.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● UK election blackout, soft retail-sales surprise and firmer month-end USD funding bids narrow the short-rate gap again, sapping fresh sterling demand.
✨ Summary
Short 1.374-1.380; sustain below 1.360 opens 1.343. Bear view void on a 4 h close above 1.380.
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NFP DAY! Could we see a bullish bounce in London?Morning everyone,
Forecasting a potential bullish leg this morning towards the 1h order block area, a retracement of yesterdays bearish leg.
Kind regards,
Aman | SMC Wolf FX
Updated GBP/USD Trade Idea: New Setup If Price Reaches Key LevelAfter successfully executing the previous trade, I’m now monitoring GBP/USD for a fresh opportunity. If the price reaches this point, it aligns with a high-probability zone where market structure suggests a potential reaction. This area has historically acted as a decision point, and I’ll be watching closely for confirmation before entering the next position.
This updated idea reflects a disciplined, price-action-based approach—focused on timing, structure, and market behavior. Whether you're a day trader or swing trader, this setup offers a clean risk-to-reward profile and fits well within an intraday strategy.
📈 Stay tuned for real-time updates, trade management insights, and detailed breakdowns. 💬 Follow for more GBP/USD strategies and actionable forex content.
GBPUSD 30m – Elliott Wave + AO ConfirmationPrice is currently testing the 1.36277 zone. I’m closely monitoring for a break of structure below this level. If it breaks, I’ll be watching for a pullback setup to short, ideally aligning with BBMA/EMA confluence.
The wave structure looks clean:
• ✅ Wave (1), (2), (3), and (4) are completed.
• ✅ AO histogram also confirms momentum waves (1) to (4), with the current move likely to complete Wave (5) to the downside.
• 🔻 Wave (4) retraced into the previous imbalance zone and respected resistance, giving further confluence for bearish continuation.
Looking to target below 1.3500 for Wave (5) completion.
Key Levels to Watch:
• 🔑 Break below 1.36277 = Bearish confirmation
• 🎯 Potential TP Zone: 1.3450 – 1.3425
• 🚫 Invalidation if price closes above 1.3700 with momentum
Let’s see how price reacts at this key level 👀
#GBPUSD #ElliottWave #AO #PriceAction #BreakOfStructure #TradingView
GBPUSD InsightHello to all subscribers,
Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the booster and subscribe!
Key Points
- According to the ADP National Employment Report, U.S. private employment in June decreased by 33,000 compared to the previous month — the first negative figure since March 2023. This has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts.
- U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a trade agreement has been reached with Vietnam. Reportedly, Vietnam has agreed to significantly lower its tariffs to 20% in exchange for opening its market. This has raised hopes for progress in ongoing trade negotiations with other countries.
- The EU trade team is currently in Washington, D.C., negotiating with the U.S. side and is reportedly requesting preemptive tariff exemptions in certain sectors.
- In the U.K., the welfare reform plan proposed by the Labour government has been significantly scaled back. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has not confirmed his confidence in Chancellor Rachel Reeves, leading to growing speculation that she may be replaced. If Reeves — who has emphasized fiscal discipline — is replaced, there are concerns that fiscal control could loosen.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ July 3: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (June), U.S. Unemployment Rate (June)
GBPUSD Chart Analysis
After maintaining an upward trend, GBPUSD experienced a sharp drop. However, the pair appears to have regained its bullish momentum with support from the trendline. The upward view will be maintained toward the resistance level of 1.40000, the trend’s previous high.
That said, caution is advised near the 1.38000 level, where the previous sharp decline occurred, as this zone could introduce volatility.
Political Uncertainty, Dollar Weakness & A Projected CorrectionDespite being a technical trader, there are some fundamental factors floating in the background of today's trading idea.
1) We saw weakness on the GBP today due to some political uncertainty & investors having concerns over the stability of the UK's leadership and economic direction.
2) We saw a drop in the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for the US Dollar today which is starting to look like a trend rather than a one-off.
Why this is important is because, despite the very bearish day that the FX:GBPUSD had today, I don't think the GBP reaction is as relevant as it's shown and I do think the USD is weaker than it's shown on this particular chart, due to the reactions that we've seen on other crosses.
All in all, that this means is that I wouldn't be shocked to see today's move corrected and price is at the perfect technical level to do just that.
If you have any questions, comments or opinions, please don't hesitate to leave them below.
Akil
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GBPUSD sweep of lowGBPUSD sweep of low reclaim of low and respecting liquidity aree take to weekly high cautiously after that short of lifetime
GBPUSD opportunity to go SHORTThe pair has been showing weakness for some time through RSI divergence.
On hourly chart it printed the indecision candle followed by two red candles. This gives us the cue for bearish momentum.
Since we need multiple reasons to short sell so we identify the recent low and if the price goes lower than this than we initiate a short trade.
For ready reference the TPs have been marked on chart.
wishing you a PROFIT-able trading.
GBPUSD-SELL strategy 6 hourly chart Reg.ChannelThe pair is overbought considering the longer time frames. we are still positive on indicators short-term, so we seek a SELL level rather than rushing in.
Strategy SELL @ 1.3760-1.3790 and take profit near 1.3617.
GBPUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.370.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.378 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GU: Asian highs > Previous Day Low?Hi everyone,
Here is my forecast this morning for GBPUSD. Overall I'm thinking bearish, but I reckon that price could take out the Asian range highs first and then give us a bearish leg towards the previous day low.
Regards,
Aman | SMC Wolf FX
1-1 student onboarding is currently open (website in my signature & profile)
GBPUSD's strong uptrend continuesGBPUSD is in a strong uptrend, Price has just broken the resistance zone of 1.37500.
All the bullish momentum is heading towards the resistance zone of 1.388.
If there is a close of the h4 candle below the resistance zone of 1.375, there will likely be a Pullback to 1.363 to find more buying momentum towards the target at the resistance zone of 1.388
📈 Key Levels
Support: 1.375-1.363
Resistance: 1.388
📊 Recommended Trade Setups
BUY GBPUSD 1.375-1.373 Stoploss 1.37000
BUY GBPUSD 1.363-1.361 Stoploss 1.35800
SELL GBPUSD 1.388-1.390 Stoploss 1.39300
Market next target 🔀 Disruption Analysis – Bullish Alternative Scenario
While the current chart outlines a bearish scenario after a short-term bullish correction, leading to a drop toward the target near 1.36600, here’s how a bullish disruption could unfold instead:
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🟢 Bullish Disruption Possibility:
1. False Breakdown / Bear Trap:
The market may dip slightly below recent lows to trigger sell stops and liquidity grab, then reverse upward.
If price finds strong buying interest around 1.3690–1.3700, it could spark a bullish reversal.
2. Strong Rejection Candles:
Watch for bullish engulfing or pin bar formations on lower timeframes (15m or 30m) near the dip area.
These would signal loss of bearish momentum.
3. Break of Lower High Structure:
A break above 1.3720 would shift short-term market structure to bullish.
It could lead to a move toward 1.3750–1.3780.
4. Macro Fundamentals:
Hawkish BOE comments or weak U.S. data could reverse USD strength, lifting GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Tactical Shift: Long Closed, Short Bias ActivatedAfter successfully capturing the upside move on GBP/USD, price has now reached a key resistance zone where bullish momentum appears to be fading. The recent price action shows signs of exhaustion, with lower highs forming near the top and a noticeable slowdown in buying pressure.
This shift in structure suggests a potential reversal opportunity. I'm now positioning for a short setup, anticipating a corrective move as sellers begin to step in. The risk is clearly defined above the recent highs, with downside targets aligned with previous reaction zones and intraday support levels.
This transition from long to short reflects a dynamic response to evolving market conditions—focused, disciplined, and opportunity-driven.
GBPUSD: Targeting 1.4200 Swing Move Target! Swing Trading GBPUSD: We’ve identified a key reversal zone where our long-term take-profit target is set at 1.4200. This is a long-term approach, but in the short term, we could target 1.3900, which is a reasonable take-profit area. Before taking any buying entry, please do your own analysis.
Good luck and trade safely!
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