Excellent Profits throughout yesterday's sessionAs discussed throughout yesterday's session commentary: "I have engaged multiple re-Buy Scalp orders on #3,412.80 Bottom and closed them on #3,420.80 and engaged Swing order on #3,423.80 which was closed on #3,4335.80 which finalized last week in excellent way."
My position: As Gold delivered #3,388.80 - #3,392.80 Support zone test throughout yesterday's session, I have used that opportunity to Buy Gold with both Swing and Scalp orders (#3,388.80 Swing) and #4 aggressive Scalp orders from #3,390.80 towards #3,396.80 - #3,398.80 finishing the session in excellent Profit. I will not engage for today's session as Gold is Technically Bearish and Fundamentally Bullish which displays very mixed / unpredictable Trading as I will remain on sidelines, Highly satisfied with my results.
Keep in mind that as long as #3,377.80 Support is preserved, Bull structure is preserved and Price-action will push for #3,400.80 benchmark test or above. If however #3,377.80 gets invalidated and market closes below it, #3,352.80 benchmark will be tested.
GOLD trade ideas
XAUUSD Has follow ascending channel bullish now from supportXAUUSD Market Update
Gold is currently respecting the ascending channel and showing strong bullish momentum from the key demand zone at 3390.
📈 Technical Outlook (4H Timeframe):
✅ Holding firm within bullish structure
🎯 First target: 3490 – major resistance level ahead
💡 Watching closely for breakout confirmation or pullback opportunities.
📌 Trade smart. Stay informed.
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— Livia 😜
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations:
Support Zone:
Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest.
Bullish Projection:
A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move.
Targets:
Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669.
If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351.
Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone.
Indicators:
The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact
GOLDThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends
#gold #dollar
Gold: Monitor Middle East Developments Over the WeekendAmid escalating tensions in the Middle East, risk-off sentiment surged,
sending gold soaring past the 3414 resistance and peaking near 3450,
before retracing and rebounding off the 3414 support zone.
⚠️ While this was a high-volume breakout, it was news-driven,
so keep in mind:
📌 If tensions ease over the weekend, a pullback on Monday is highly likely
📌 If tensions escalate, another bullish run would be expected
—
🔍 Technical Outlook:
🧭 4H chart: 9-count nearing completion — overbought signals building
🧭 2H chart: MACD showing early signs of a bearish crossover; potential divergence forming
🧭 1D chart: Breakout with volume confirms bullish trend, but risk of short-term correction remains
—
📌 Key Price Zones:
🔺 Resistance: 3468 – 3487 – 3500
🔻 Support: 3414 (critical) – 3400 – 3392
⚠️ If broken, next downside targets: 3378 – 3367
—
📈 Strategy Suggestions:
As we head into Monday:
✅ Consider selling on rallies if geopolitical tensions ease
✅ If tensions worsen, follow the momentum — but watch for reversal signs
Gold Final Leg? Mapping the Last Wave of the Current Bull CycleI expect gold to be entering the final bullish wave of its current long-term cycle, with an ultimate target in the $3,900–$4,050 range.
However, the first major resistance lies between $3,600 and $3,700, where I expect a potential pullback.
From there, a healthy correction toward $3,300–$3,400 is likely.
If strong buying momentum steps in at that support zone, we may see gold continue its rally toward the final target.
📌 Key Risk Level:
Pay close attention to the $3,300–$3,400 support.
If gold fails to hold above it, and closes decisively below, this could signal that $3,600 was already the final top of this bull cycle.
Stay cautious, and good luck to all fellow traders! 🟡📈
"Gold (XAUUSD) Possible Breakout Trap Forming-Big Reversal Move Gold has formed a potential breakout trap near key resistance levels. A false breakout could lead to a strong reversal targeting the 3200 support zone. Watching for RSI divergence and volume confirmation. Not financial advice — for educational purposes only.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) 4-Hour Chart4-hour price movement of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) against the U.S. Dollar, covering the period from late June to early July 2025. The current price is $3,381.09, reflecting a slight decrease of $7.09 (-0.21%) over the period. The chart includes candlestick patterns, with a highlighted consolidation zone and a recent downward trend. Key price levels such as $3,401.46, $3,389.38, and $3,340.00 are marked, indicating potential support and resistance zones.
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Following up on our previous analysis, price action has continued to respect our Goldturn channel beautifully. After the strong move to 3272, we saw another push toward the channel top near 3433. However, just before completing the move, price was met with another sharp rejection, highlighting the strength of the range and the precision of our channel levels.
The key takeaway here is that 3272 is still providing solid support, and the price remains well contained within our defined range between 3272 and 3433. This reaffirms our strategy of buying dips near the lower end of the range rather than chasing strength near the top.
We remain focused on trading within this range, using our weighted Goldturns to guide entries on the lower timeframes (1H and 4H). As long as the structure holds, we’ll continue to target quick 30–40 pip intraday moves while positioning ourselves for a potential breakout scenario when the time is right.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, drawn using weighted averages instead of pure price action. This unique approach helps us clearly identify fake outs and real breakouts, cutting out much of the noise that usually confuses traders.
Keep an eye on how price behaves around 3272 and 3433. A clean break and close above the channel top would be significant but until then, range play remains our primary game plan.
Let’s stay patient and disciplined.
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold is rising in the shock!
From the analysis of the 1-hour chart, pay attention to the long-short watershed of 3360-3365. If it stabilizes at this position, it is expected to further bottom out and rebound. The upper short-term resistance is around 3410-3420, and the support is 3377-3380. Rely on this range to see the wide range of long and short shocks during the day. In the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy during the session, and pay attention to it in time.
Buy gold when it falls back to the 3375-3383 range, and continue to buy when it falls back to the 3360-3364 line. The target is 3415-3420, and continue to hold if it breaks;
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsOn Friday, the strategy of going long on gold at relatively low levels was once again precisely fulfilled. The morning strategy clearly suggested opening long positions within the range of 3400 - 3410. As expected, the price of gold once again surged to around the 3445 level, and profits were successfully secured once more.
The hourly chart of gold shows a volatile upward trend. Driven by risk aversion in the early morning, it surged rapidly but fell back for correction after hitting resistance at 3444 during the European session. Before the U.S. session, it stabilized at 3412 and rallied again. The previous large bearish candlestick was more of a minor shakeout—after washing out floating chips, it has now regained its upward momentum.
Maintain a strongly bullish approach for now. The 3415-3410 range forms a key support zone, and long positions can be continued above this level. Upper resistance remains at 3445-3450; a valid breakout could lead to further gains toward 3475 and beyond. However, be aware that a sustained rally may trigger a pullback due to overbought indicators or divergences. For operations, consider going long near support and exercise caution when chasing highs near resistance
XAUUSD
buy@3405-3315
tp:3430-3450
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
XAUUSD Buy Idea using EMA/ Purple Shift Zone Strong rejection observed at 3375 on both the 1H and 4H timeframes . This level aligns with the EMA200 on the 1H and EMA50 on the 4H, providing solid confluence for a potential buy setup.
Next target: 3402.
If price breaks above this level, a move towards 3420 is possible- Final target is around 3500 but who knows when we'll get there.
A cross of the Yellow Line (EMA5) above the Red (EMA13) would add further confirmation for the long, where I may consider adding to the position.
Let’s see how the price action develops. Good Luck
Just My Idea!
XAU/USD – Bullish Breakout & Wave 3 Expansion Imminent?Gold appears to have completed a corrective Elliott Wave structure (A)-(B)-(C) within a contracting wedge pattern, followed by a bullish breakout signaling the beginning of a new impulsive wave cycle.
🔹 Wave Structure Overview
The corrective decline formed a clear ABC correction inside a falling wedge, marked in red.
Following the final touch on the wedge's lower boundary, we saw a 5-wave impulsive breakout—suggesting the end of correction and initiation of a larger degree impulse wave.
Subwaves (1)-(2) appear to have completed in the new uptrend, with Wave (3) currently in motion.
🔹 Fibonacci Extension Targets for Wave (3)
Using the Fibonacci extension from the base of Wave (1)-(2):
1.13 Extension = $3,517
1.272 Extension = $3,551
1.414 Extension = $3,585
1.618 Extension = $3,635 (Primary target for Wave (3))
These are key resistance levels to watch as price progresses higher.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
A sustained break above recent resistance (~$3,345) should trigger momentum toward Wave (3)’s target range.
Price action and structure support a move toward $3,550–$3,635 in the coming days.
Minor pullbacks (Wave 4) expected before the final move into Wave 5 completion.
🔴 Bearish Invalidations
If price breaks below the current Wave (2) low (~$3,240), the bullish impulsive count may be invalidated.
Invalidation of the impulsive structure would imply either a deeper correction or re-entry into range-bound consolidation.
📌 Conclusion:
Gold is showing strong bullish momentum post-correction with a potential extended Wave (3) in progress. Breakout traders can look for continuation setups above $3,345 with targets at the Fibonacci extensions noted. Risk should be managed below Wave (2) low.
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #ElliottWave #TradingView #Wave3Breakout #FibonacciTargets #GoldOutlook
How to trade the Fed's interest rate decision!In nearly an hour, the Fed will announce the Fed's interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations;
In nearly an hour and a half, Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.
If the Fed's policy statement or the latest forecast shows a dovish tendency, it may resume the downward trend of the US dollar, thereby supporting the upward trend of gold; and the recent mild inflation and weak employment data in the United States may prompt the Fed to soften its previous assessment, thereby strengthening expectations of interest rate cuts and providing support for gold prices.
From the current technical structure, gold maintains a volatile and anxious market during the day, and there is no clear direction in the short term, but gold is currently always below 3400, and the overall market is still in a weak trend; but gold has repeatedly touched the 3375-3365 area and can quickly recover, proving that there is still strong buying support below; in fact, it stands to reason that if gold is really weak, it should have continued to fall and touched the 3360-3350 area, but gold did not touch the area as expected, but used sideways trading to exchange time and space, and there was no sign of any downward breakthrough, so gold is likely to choose an upward direction.
In addition, the Middle East geopolitical crisis, global economic uncertainty, intensified trade frictions and rising inflation expectations will all provide structural support for gold. So if gold does not fall below the 3365-3355 area today, we will be bullish on gold first; but if gold cannot break through the 3410-3420 area in one fell swoop during the rise, then we need to be careful of the trend of gold rising and then falling.
As for how to trade the news next: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The above are my trading ideas and opinions, you can read them carefully and use them as a reference! If you still want to trade news after careful consideration, please be sure to set SL during the transaction to protect your account to the greatest extent!
Safe-Haven Demand Expected to Push Gold Prices Toward 3500Last week, intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran triggered a strong wave of risk-off sentiment in the markets.
As a result, we saw sharp rallies across major safe-haven assets and crude oil.
Over the weekend, tensions continued to escalate and even showed signs of further expansion.
Under such circumstances, it's clear that heightened geopolitical risk will continue to support gold prices.
However, 📍$3500 remains a major resistance zone at the moment.
If gold spikes to this level intraday, it’s very likely we’ll see a short-term pullback —
Whether due to profit-taking, cautious positioning by sideline capital, or selling pressure from trapped shorts above 3490,
⚠️ this kind of correction is a natural market reaction — driven by human nature.
Even with strong risk-off demand in place, after a $200 rally,
the market is still subject to volatility from profit-taking behaviors.
🔑 Trading Strategy for This Week
As long as tensions in the Middle East persist,
🎯 the primary bias remains bullish.
However, the entry point is crucial.
💡 Important notes:
Avoid chasing price after sudden spikes caused by breaking news.
Those spikes are not ideal buy zones — instead, look for short-term selling opportunities at those highs.
Once the price pulls back, assess the retracement level and key supports before looking to buy the dip.
We are now within a historically high price range,
which means any rally could trigger profit-taking from earlier longs.
While the overall trend may still head higher,
⚠️ you need to carefully evaluate the size of potential pullbacks and whether your account can withstand the associated risks.
📊 Technical Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 3450-3455 (minor), 3468-3474 (previous high), and 3487-3499 (major historical high)
Support: 3420–3410 zone, and the deeper 3400–3386 range
Stay alert, trade wisely, and remember — in volatile geopolitical environments,
timing and discipline are more important than ever.
Gold 4H – Into the Golden Pocket, Next Move Loading?After our last successful setup, here's how I'm looking at Gold now:
Price is approaching a confluence zone that includes:
- A 4H FVG (Fair Value Gap)
- 0.618–0.786 fib retracement
- Strong trendline support
- 1D imbalance zone
I’m watching for a reaction from this golden pocket to catch the next potential impulsive leg toward the 3,450–3,500 region. If we see a rejection wick and break of short-term structure, it could be game on for bulls. If this zone breaks clean, we reassess at the 1.0 fib near 3,323.
Patience is key — let the market come to you.
XAUUSD: Strategy and Analysis for June 12Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance: 3400-3420, support: 3310
Four-hour chart resistance: 3400, support: 3325
One-hour chart resistance: 3385, support: 3340.
Spot gold soared after the release of CPI as investors responded to optimistic inflation data. Trump's interest rate cut speech restored the confidence of gold bulls, but with the strong pressure of 3380 above, the market fell again, and the frequency of gold long and short switching accelerated, verifying the daily level of shock. From a technical point of view, although the daily line has not risen continuously, there is a very obvious feature of the daily cycle, that is, the middle track of Bollinger has not broken, and multiple attempts have not changed this technical point. This is the support point for the short-term retracement and the defense point for the long-term rise. If the NY market stands firm at 3380, it is expected to rise to the 3410 US dollar line. The short-term key support position below is around 3345, and it will be short-term bearish only after it falls below. Personally, I suggest that you give priority to buying in the NY market.
Buy: 3380near SL:3375
Buy: 3345near SL:3340
XAUUSD – Swing Trade and Trend FollowingXAUUSD – Swing Trade and Trend Following
Gold prices have been moving sideways, forming a consolidation range, and recently broke out to the upside last week.
Currently, the price is pulling back to retest the bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). If it can bounce from the 3400 support level, the next target would be the Range Volatile Week High around 3500.
However, if the FVG fails to hold, the price may drop to the next support levels at 3350 and 3300.
These are critical supports that should not be broken, as they also align with the ascending trendline (Up Trend Line).
That said, this move is seen as a pullback for a potential continuation to the upside.
Strategy: Buy the dip
Wait for a reversal candlestick at the key support zones.
The bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price breaks below 3250.