Gold at a Crossroads — Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?Hello traders, what’s your take on gold today?
At the moment, gold continues to benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, a healthy correction is underway, pushing prices slightly lower. XAUUSD is currently trading in a tight range near $3,380, and technical indicators suggest the metal is entering a consolidation phase — potentially a setup for the next breakout.
All eyes are now on this week’s FOMC meeting, which kicks off today with a policy statement and press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While markets do not expect the Fed to cut interest rates at this meeting, dovish signals will be closely watched. This may leave bullish traders on the sidelines for now, waiting for clearer confirmation.
On the flip side, geopolitical uncertainty remains a powerful driver for gold, offering psychological support and keeping buyers engaged in the short term.
From a technical standpoint, bulls are aiming for a breakout above the key $3,500 resistance level. Meanwhile, bears are eyeing a short-term push below the $3,345–$3,330 support zone.
So what’s your view — are we about to see a breakout or another dip? Let me know your thoughts.
GOLD trade ideas
Could the Gold reverse from here?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,390.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 3,426.28
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 3,343.57
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Market Structure AnalysisMarket Structure Analysis
HH (Higher High) and HL (Higher Low) labels indicate the prior uptrend structure.
The recent price action shows consolidation and potential trend reversal or correction.
🟦
Highlighted Zones
Supply Zones (resistance): Marked in light teal rectangles near the top of price action (e.g., around 3,400).
Demand Zones (support): Marked below the current price (e.g., around 3,360 and lower near 3,320).
🔄
Ch0CH (Change of Character)
A “Ch0CH” label is marked — this typically signals a potential shift in market structure (e.g., from bullish to bearish).
This is further supported by the price breaking below a previous higher low.
📉
Trade Setup
Red Zone: Indicates the stop-loss region.
Green Zone: Indicates the take-profit target.
A short (sell) position is implied here, expecting price to drop from the current level to the lower demand zone.
🔁
Projected Price Path
A dotted white line projects a potential bearish move, with a minor retracement before continuation down to ~3,328.
Potential Scenarios (Neutral Outlook):1. Overall Trend (Short-Term):
From early June onward, the trend has shown a clear upward movement, especially after June 11, suggesting bullish momentum.
However, in the most recent candles (last 24–36 hours), there is a consolidation/sideways movement, potentially indicating a pause or reversal.
2. Key Support and Resistance Zones:
Resistance Zone: Around 3,460–3,470 (the recent high before price pulled back).
Support Zone: Near 3,380–3,390, previously tested before the last push upward.
3. Price Structure & Patterns:
There was a strong rally from June 11–13, followed by a pullback and consolidation.
This could be forming a bullish flag or pennant, which often precedes a continuation upward if confirmed by volume or breakout above resistance.
4. Recent Candlestick Behavior:
Current candles are small-bodied with wicks on both sides — this suggests indecision or low momentum, often found before a breakout or reversal.
🧭 Potential Scenarios (Neutral Outlook):
Bullish Continuation: A breakout above the recent high (~3,460) could resume the uptrend toward 3,500+.
Bearish Reversal: A drop below the 3,380 support area could trigger a correction toward 3,340 or lower.
📌 Note: Watch for upcoming economic events marked on the chart — especially those with the U.S. flag, as USD news often significantly affects XAU/USD.
Geopolitics Trigger Gold Breakthrough Above $3,400Last night's released strategy accurately predicted Israel's military action against Iran – the strike was launched in the early morning. The driving effect of geopolitics on gold is significant. As a major global oil supply region, the Middle East situation has directly triggered a surge in oil prices.
The key focus is on Iran's subsequent counterattack: if retaliation is carried out, gold's safe-haven attribute will be further activated, and the possibility of gold prices breaking through the $3,500 threshold is significantly increased.
Currently, go long near the $3,400 support level. Pay attention to changes in the international situation, and I will notify you immediately of any new news.
XAU/USD
buy@3400-3410
tp:3430-3440
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Bullislh continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Pivot: 3,374.04
1st Support: 3,348.45
1st Resistance: 3,414.78
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Wide range fluctuations continue, the latest layout of gold📰 Impact of news:
1. Initial jobless claims data
2. US-Iran conflict continues
3. Pay attention to the Fed's decision
📈 Market analysis:
At present, the gold price is testing the 3380 line again, and the strong support below is 3365-3355. As long as it does not fall below this key support, the bulls will remain strong. At the same time, the two key points of 3405 and 3420 above are still short-term resistance. Breaking through may directly test 3450. In the short term, gold fluctuates repeatedly at the 3405-3365 level, temporarily maintaining a high-altitude low-multiple cycle. There is also initial jobless claims data released today. At the same time, the geopolitical situation in the short term is severe, so we need to be cautious. In addition, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed tomorrow. The focus this week is mainly on Friday, especially when it is superimposed with the Fed's interest rate decision, we need to be vigilant about the transmission effect of sudden changes in liquidity on the market.
🏅 Trading strategies:
BUY 3380-3365-3355
TP 33395-3400-3405
SELL 3405-3390
TP 3380-3360
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Citigroup predicts a decline in gold prices? Blacklisted?Information summary:
Citigroup analysts predict that by the second half of 2026, gold will fall back to around $2,500-2,700, with a significant reduction in investment demand, improved global economic growth prospects, and a decline in the factors that led to the rise in gold prices due to the Fed's interest rate cut.
My point of view is: blacklist Citigroup. Since last year, they have predicted that the highest point of gold prices will exceed $4,000, and they have constantly changed the forecast point in the middle, and now they even point out that the price will fall below $3,000, which is completely unreliable.
Market analysis:
In the early Asian session, it also rose strongly, and it seems that there is a lot of upward momentum, but $3,405 is the pressure position for the top and bottom conversion, and the rise in the morning is a lure. At this position, it fell rapidly, reaching a minimum of around $3,373.
The Asian market seemed to rebound strongly in the morning, but the MA5 and MA10 moving averages showed a downward trend. This kind of market cannot wait for a decline to go long, but it is also a repeated wash-out shock. The first focus below is the 3375-3370 area, followed by 3360. The short-term trend is still dominated by wash-out shocks.
The short-term important focus position is around 3405. 3405 is used as the dividing point between long and short positions. A short-selling strategy is carried out near this position. Pay attention to the 3375-3360 area below.
May peace prevail on earthIf geopolitical conflicts continue to fester, gold prices may keep climbing due to safe-haven demand—yet this is far from our wish. 📈
When risk aversion pushes candlestick charts higher, we'd rather see battlefield fires cease by dawn, letting the rhythm of peace replace market volatility. 🌍✨
Gold delivering excellent Scalp opportunities Fundamental analysis: Gold was among the losers (Short-term) of the Fed's decision this throughout yesterday’s session for then first time within #8-Month period. Valuable ground's given and #3,400.80 benchmark looks unreachable for at least this week’s borders. Fed kept rates unchanged, and signaled that current Rate would continue through #2025 to support the next phase of the economic recovery. Investors clearly show their interest to try riskier assets like equities and as long as DX is without a recovery (currently on steep Descending Channel), Gold will keep constantly deliver Bull spikes. Daily chart turned Neutral with Resistance level priced at #3,395.80 - #3,400.80 and if invalidated I expect historic upside potential of Gold (my estimations show even #3,452.80 and #3,500.80 in succession within #2 - #3 Month variance). Quarterly Investors will pressure on the Resistance based on Bullish Fundamental outlook on Gold. However with Gold’s Technicals critically Bearish, I won’t be surprised to see values below #3,352.80 benchmark tested and invalidated.
My position : I have monitored the Price-action from sidelines and spotted few patterns however didn’t engaged as my Profit range is already decent. However I spotted excellent post-Fed opportunity and Bought Gold aggressively on #3,363.80 and closed the order on #3,378.80 last night. I will continue Scalping current #3,357.80 - #3,395.80 range as it is excellent Trading lately.
Gold Spot Price Analysis (4-Hour Chart)4-hour candlestick chart for the Gold Spot price in U.S. Dollars (XAUUSD). The chart shows a recent downward trend with a notable dip, followed by an upward correction. A technical analysis pattern is highlighted within a green rectangle, indicating a potential bullish reversal. The current price is $3,374.76, with a decrease of $13.40 (-0.40%). The chart provides insights into short-term price movements and potential trading opportunities.
The golden opportunity comes again.This week, gold showed a slow bullish upward pattern, rising repeatedly and circuitously, and finally closed positive on the weekly line. On Friday, it was blocked twice at the high level of 3445, and the closing price remained sideways. The market is expected to continue the upward trend next week. If it breaks through 3445, it is expected to further challenge the 3500 mark or even set a new high. Combined with the recent fundamentals and the continued warming of the geopolitical situation, it provides solid support for bulls. However, the current market shock sweep is still the main rhythm, and it is not advisable to blindly chase highs in operation. It is still recommended to focus on retracement and long positions. The key support of the daily line refers to the top and bottom conversion position of 3403 and the low point of 3419 on Friday. If it falls back to the above area, you can rely on the support to arrange long positions at the right time. The overall trend is still inclined to bulls, and short positions can only be tried with a light position. Remember that strict risk control is required against the trend. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy at the bottom, and pay attention to it in time.
Operation suggestion: Gold is recommended to go long near 3405-3400, with the target looking at 3445 and 3465. If it is strong, rely on the support of 3420-3415 area and choose the opportunity to go long.
If you still lack direction in gold trading, you might as well try to follow my pace. The strategy is open and transparent, and the execution logic is clear and definite, which may bring new breakthroughs to your trading. The real value does not rely on verbal promises, but is verified by the market and time. 🌐
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends.
#gold #dollar
The bulls rise strongly and continue to rise after falling backFrom the 4-hour analysis, today's support is around 3345-50. If the intraday retracement relies on this position, the main bullish trend will remain unchanged. The short-term bullish strong dividing line is 3320-25. Before the daily level falls below this position, any retracement is a long opportunity. Maintain the main tone of participating in the trend.
Gold operation strategy:
1. If gold falls back to 3340-45 and does not break, go long, stop loss 3335, target 3375-3380, continue to hold if it breaks
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Following up on our previous analysis, price action has continued to respect our Goldturn channel beautifully. After the strong move to 3272, we saw another push toward the channel top near 3433. However, just before completing the move, price was met with another sharp rejection, highlighting the strength of the range and the precision of our channel levels.
The key takeaway here is that 3272 is still providing solid support, and the price remains well contained within our defined range between 3272 and 3433. This reaffirms our strategy of buying dips near the lower end of the range rather than chasing strength near the top.
We remain focused on trading within this range, using our weighted Goldturns to guide entries on the lower timeframes (1H and 4H). As long as the structure holds, we’ll continue to target quick 30–40 pip intraday moves while positioning ourselves for a potential breakout scenario when the time is right.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, drawn using weighted averages instead of pure price action. This unique approach helps us clearly identify fake outs and real breakouts, cutting out much of the noise that usually confuses traders.
Keep an eye on how price behaves around 3272 and 3433. A clean break and close above the channel top would be significant but until then, range play remains our primary game plan.
Let’s stay patient and disciplined.
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Current Gold Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsGold showed a pullback after hitting a high yesterday, with a daily decline of nearly 70 USD. The daily candlestick pattern completely engulfed the previous day's gains and closed bearish. Combined with the current signals of geopolitical tensions, today's market is expected to be dominated by broad-range consolidation. From the 4-hour cycle perspective, the price broke below the middle Bollinger Band with consecutive bearish candles last night and continued to decline after being suppressed in the early morning, with technicals pointing to a consolidative and bearish pattern.
The key pivot level today is at 3,405: if the market effectively stabilizes above this level, the upper resistance will test 3,420 and 3,430 in sequence; conversely, if the suppression at 3,405 holds, the price is likely to repeatedly test the support at 3,380 and further dip to the 3,370-3,360 zone. It is recommended to wait for the decline momentum to clarify before initiating long positions, maintaining an overall range-trading strategy.
XAUUSD
buy@3375-3380
tp:3390-3400-3420
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Gold Price Analysis June 16There is not much surprise when the price gap up appeared on Monday morning
there is no barrier that can stop the price of gold from increasing towards ATH.
Gold has a slight correction in Tokyo session after the price gap up touched the round resistance zone 3450.
The correction may extend to 3413 in European session. This is a BUY zone with the expectation that Gold will regain the ATH hook. If broken, there will be some Scalping buy zones but the risk is quite high so to be safe, wait for 3398.
3463 acts as temporary resistance for a reaction period before Gold returns to the all-time high. Maybe before 3490 there will be another price reaction before reaching the top.
GOLD - at resistance, what's next??#GOLD .. perfect bounce from our supporting area as we discussed in our weekly analysis video and now market have today most important resistance 3398.50
Keep close that area and if market hold then drop expected from here.
Note: we will go for cut n reverse above 3398 on confirmation .
Good luck
Trade wisely