Gold Potential Bullish ContinuationAfter retracing to the approx. 3370 - 3380 zone, gold still seems to exhibit signs of overall potential Bullish momentum as the price action may form a credible Higher Low with multiple confluences through key Fibonacci and Support levels which presents us with a potential long opportunity.
Trade Plan:
Entry : CMP 3393
Stop Loss : 3286
TP : 3499 (Before All Time High)
GOLD trade ideas
Forward-looking trading, focus on 3380 support📰 Impact of news:
1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
2. Iran nuclear talks
3. Retail sales data
📈 Market analysis:
Gold prices are currently in a narrow range of fluctuations again, and the signal of Iran restarting nuclear negotiations has weakened risk aversion, triggering a correction in gold prices during the session, but tensions in the Middle East remain an uncertain factor. In the short term, we still need to focus on the breakthrough of the 3380 support line. If the 3380 support line is strong, we can still maintain a long trading idea in the short term and look to 3400. On the contrary, once it falls below, it is expected to look to the 3350 line. Pay attention to the breakthrough of 3400 on the upside. If the Asian and European sessions cannot effectively break through this short-term resistance, gold will continue to fluctuate.
🏅 Trading strategies:
BUY 3380-3370
TP 3390-3400-3450
SELL 3400-3390
TP 3380-3370-3350
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Gold Market Breaks Bearish Trajectory & lures bullish sentiment Gold market breaks out of its bearish trajectory, initiating a bullish build-up within a developing wedge structure. Price action now targets the 3400s for mitigation, reinforcing the bullish outlook in the mid-term trend. follow for more insights , comment , and boost idea
Bullish reversal off 50% Fibonacci support?The Gold (XAU?USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 3,374.04
1st Support: 3,348.45
1st Resistance: 3,444.62
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GOLDThis involves working with a stop order. If the market moves towards the target, ignoring the stop order, then there is a profit, but if, on the contrary, the market goes long, based on the current military-political situation, then there is no loss. The profit in the ratio of 1:2 is probably not bad.
Gold Breaks Out- Bulls Eye Record High Gold prices are poised to mark a third consecutive daily advance with XAU/USD clearing the June opening-range on news of war breaking out in the Middle East. The breakout takes price into uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this slope.
A rally of more than 1.7% extended into uptrend resistance at the median-line before pulling back and the immediate focus is on today’s close with respect to the record high-close at 3431. Risk for near-term inflection off this zone with a close above needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the record high at 3500 and the 100% extension of the May rally at 3578- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Initial support now rests back at the 61.8% retracement of the April decline / the record high-day close (HDC) at 3355/80- losses should be limited to the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch. Subsequent support seen at the May / June open at 3288/89 with bullish invalidation now raised to the May LDC / late-May swing low at 3240/45- a close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway.
Bottom line: The gold rally has extended into uptrend resistance at the median-line- risk for possible inflection / topside exhaustion into this slope. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 3355 IF price is heading for a breakout with a close above the median-line needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
Keep in mind we get the release of key interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England next week. The ongoing conflict in Iran adds an additional layer of event risk as gold presses record highs- stay nimble next week and watch the weekly closes for guidance here.
Gold market analysis and trading strategiesGold market analysis and trading strategies
Core view: Super sweeping market continues
Large cycle pattern: Gold is in a sweeping stage, lacking trend direction, similar to the long-term shock after the peak in 2011 (lasting nearly 20 months).
Current fundamentals (geopolitical conflicts, inflation data, Fed policy expectations) support this violent fluctuation.
Short-term characteristics: straight upward, frequent V-shaped reversals, rhythm control is more important than direction judgment, and we need to be vigilant against sudden news-induced surges and plunges.
Review of major influencing factors
China-US negotiations: No specific details have been announced, but the market's sensitivity to trade relations still exists.
US CPI data: slightly lower than expected, Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1%, strengthening easing expectations, which is good for gold.
Middle East situation: The United States evacuated its citizens from Bahrain and Kuwait, the Iran-Iraq crisis escalated, and the geopolitical risk premium pushed up gold prices.
Technical analysis
1. Daily level
Pattern: The big positive line broke through the key resistance level of 3360 points, confirming the short-term bullish momentum.
Support level: 3360-3345-3320
Resistance level: 3390-3395.
Potential path: If it stands above 3360, it may rise to 3400+ (target 3415, 3440); if it falls below 3350-45, the risk of a pullback will increase.
2. 4-hour level
Trend: MACD golden cross, trading volume enlarged, moving averages are bullishly arranged, support level: 3369 (MA5), 3350 (MA60).
Key points: 3360-65 is the watershed between long and short positions. If it holds, the upward trend will continue.
3. Hourly chart
Short-term signal: MACD golden cross, but STO is overbought, be wary of a high pullback. 3362 is the direct support level, and a breakout of this level may lead to a pullback to 3348-50.
Trading strategy recommendations:
Long strategy
Active long orders: enter the market in the 3360-65 area, stop loss of $5 (fall below 3360), target 3375-3388-3395-3405.
Steady long orders:
Long orders at 3345-3350, stop loss at 3339, target above 3360.
Short order strategy:
Short-term pullback: short light positions when stagflation in the 3396-3400 area, stop loss 3405, target 3380-3360.
Trend short orders: layout in batches in the 3413-3430 area, stop loss set above 3440, target 3400-3380 (need to match the top pattern).
Gold is rising, beware of a pullback.Since last Friday, the daily line has shown an alternating trend of yin and yang. In the three trading days this week, the lows and highs have been rising continuously, which shows that the short-term trend is strong. Today's intraday trend also illustrates this point. At present, gold has risen directly to the 3388 line, directly refreshing the intraday high again.
From the hourly chart, we must be careful of the possibility of gold diving. From the previous rules, each rise is about 45 US dollars. This time it also started from 3340-3345, and the increase was close to 45 US dollars. Moreover, each time the rise is completed, the dive callback is 35 US dollars. Therefore, once it starts to fall from 3385-3390, it is very likely to reach 3350-3355.
In terms of short-term resistance, pay attention to the 3400 pressure level above; the support level is around 3340. the support level pays attention to the vicinity of 3340.
Operation strategy:
Short at 3385, stop loss at 3395, and profit range is 3360-3350.
XAU / USD 30 Minutes ChartHello traders. Taking a quick look at the 30, we can see my area of interest marked on the chart. Let's see if we bounce off and move back up, move down and stay trading in the range or push back down to the area marked. I am waiting patiently and I am in no hurry to force or rusha trade. We have big new here in under an hour in the US. I am just watching for now. Big G gets my thanks. Be well and trade the trend.
Gold Falls Back Despite Geopolitical Tensions,Eyes on 3404 BreakGOLD – Overview
Gold Falls, Erasing War-Driven Gains
Gold has reversed all gains made since Israel launched strikes against Iran, despite rising geopolitical tensions.
The precious metal failed to hold its safe-haven bid and now appears to be entering a technical correction phase.
While the Federal Reserve struck a dovish tone during Wednesday’s meeting — signaling potential rate cuts this year — real rates remain elevated, which continues to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.
Technical Outlook:
Gold corrected perfectly to our support level at 3347, as forecasted in the previous idea.
• As long as price trades above 3365, bullish momentum remains active
• Next targets: 3393 → 3404
• A 1H candle close above 3404 would confirm bullish continuation toward 3430 and 3448
A break below 3347 would shift the structure bearish.
Key Levels:
• Support: 3365 / 3347 / 3322
• Resistance: 3393 / 3404 / 3430 / 3448
previous idea:
XAUUSD UPWARDS XAUUSD Buy Analysis
Entry: 3366 (Current market price)
Bias: Bullish (Uptrend)
🎯 Targets
Target 1: 3380 (Initial resistance zone / minor target)
Target 2: 3400 (Key psychological level and resistance)
Target 3: 3420 (Major resistance and swing high area)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL):
3455
(Note: SL appears higher than the entry, which is unusual for a buy trade — typically, SL is set below the entry. Please confirm if this is a typo
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD Trade Plan for June 19, 2025🌀 Wave Structure
On the H4 timeframe, following a strong selloff, price is now consolidating within a narrow price channel — suggesting that we are currently in wave b (black) of an abc correction.
This structure implies that one more leg down is likely to complete wave c (black). However, due to the overlapping and sideways nature of the move, it's difficult to clearly identify the end points of waves a and b, making traditional Fibonacci targeting less effective.
➡️ To improve accuracy, we’re combining Volume Profile data with price action and have identified four key support zones:
3349, 3335, 3313, and 3297
Among these, we’re giving special attention to:
🎯 Target 1: 3335
🎯 Target 2: 3297
We'll wait for bullish momentum signals near these levels to increase the probability of catching the end of wave c.
🔋 Momentum Outlook
Daily (D1): Momentum is about to enter oversold territory. By the end of today or tomorrow, the daily candle is expected to confirm this — suggesting a weakening bearish trend.
H4: Also approaching oversold. If price is hovering around one of the key support levels (3349 | 3335 | 3313 | 3297) when this happens, and the D1 is already oversold, then we may be looking at a high-probability reversal zone.
H1: Nearly oversold as well — expect a short-term bounce soon. The best timing for a BUY will be when the H1 starts turning bullish while both the D1 and H4 are oversold.
✅ Trade Setup
🔹 Scenario 1
BUY ZONE: 3336 – 3333
SL: 3326
TP1 | TP2 | TP3: 3345 | 3378 | 3402
🔹 Scenario 2
BUY ZONE: 3300 – 3297
SL: 3290
TP1 | TP2 | TP3: 3313 | 3345 | 3402
⏳ Patience is key — wait for confluence between support zones and momentum reversals. That’s where the high-probability BUY setups emerge.
XAUUSD MARKET UPDATE 19 - 06 - 2025This chart presents a technical analysis of Gold CFDs (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the key elements:
Chart Structure & Patterns:
Descending Channel: Price has been consolidating in a downward-sloping channel (marked in blue).
Projected Move: The sketch on the chart shows a potential false breakdown below the channel support, followed by a strong bullish reversal.
Support Zone: Around $3,321.534 to $3,341, highlighted in green/red — this is the expected reversal zone.
Resistance/Target Zone: A sharp upward arrow suggests the price could move towards the $3,453.550 area, the previous high and a key resistance.
Current Price:
$3,373.133 (as per the chart), sitting near the middle of the channel.
Analysis Summary:
This is a bullish setup expecting:
1. A dip to retest or fake out below the channel.
2. Reversal from the demand zone (highlighted green).
3. Breakout from the descending channel leading to a strong rally.
Invalidation likely occurs below $3,321.
Trade Idea (based on the chart):
Buy near: $3,340–$3,325
Stop loss: Below $3,321
Target: $3,440–$3,453
Would you like a written trading plan or risk management breakdown for this idea?
GOLD 30MIN Unemployment Claims Data Context
Forecast: 246,000
Previous: 248,000
The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market.
Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast
Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected.
Fed Response:
The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth.
This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists.
The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues.
Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast
Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Fed Response:
The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation.
This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target.
The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes.
Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook
Expected Outcome:
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting.
Supporting Factors:
Inflation is moderating but remains above target.
Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating.
Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach.
Market Odds:
There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions.
Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.