XAUUSD: Bullish Now, But Trouble Ahead?Last Friday, buying momentum lifted gold prices, with potential for a further move toward the 3400 level, provided bullish momentum continues.
This move followed a weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, an uptick in the unemployment rate, and no change in the Fed's interest rate, all of which pressured the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) lower and supported gold’s rise.
Interestingly, while price advanced, institutional traders reduced their long exposure by nearly 30,000 contracts, indicating some caution or profit-taking at current levels.
I remain bullish in the short term due to macro tailwinds, but bearish in the medium to long term as institutional positioning softens and resistance zones approach.
GOLD trade ideas
Has gold bottomed out on July 30?
Key Influencing Factors
Negative Factors:
A stronger US dollar: A rebound in the US dollar index is suppressing gold prices.
Recovering risk appetite: Market demand for safe-haven assets is weakening.
Rising real interest rates: Expectations of Fed policy are impacting the cost of holding gold.
US-EU trade agreement: Easing geopolitical tensions will weaken gold's safe-haven appeal.
Potentially bullish variables:
Federal Reserve policy signals: A dovish statement on Wednesday could boost gold prices.
Geopolitical risks: Uncertainties such as the Sino-US trade negotiations and the situation in the Middle East remain.
Technical Analysis
Trend Analysis:
Short-term weakness (four consecutive negative daily candlestick patterns), but the broader bullish trend remains.
Key support level: 3300-3285 (falling below or falling to 3250); resistance level: 3330-3345 (breaking through may end the pullback).
Key Levels:
Downward Support: 3310-3300 (short-term), 3285 (strong support). Upper resistance: 3335-3345 (trend reversal expected after a breakout).
Trading Strategy
Short-term Trading:
Long positions primarily at low levels: Try a light buy position in the 3300-3310 area, with a stop-loss below 3285 and a target of 3330-3345.
Short selling at high levels is auxiliary: If it rebounds to 3335-3345 and is under pressure, you can short sell with a stop loss above 3350 and a target of 3310-3300.
Follow up on the breakout: If it breaks through 3345 strongly, you can chase long positions; if it falls below 3285, be wary of a rebound after a false break.
Medium- to Long-term Strategy:
Watch for potential bottoming opportunities near 3285. If it stabilizes, place long positions in batches, betting on dovish signals from the Federal Reserve or escalating geopolitical risks.
Risk Warning: Data-sensitive period: This week's Federal Reserve decision and economic data may trigger significant volatility, so position management is crucial. US Dollar Trends: The US dollar and gold prices show a significant negative correlation, so the US Dollar Index should be monitored closely.
Risk of false break: There may be a trap below 3300, which needs to be confirmed in combination with the K-line pattern.
Summary: Gold is under short-term pressure, but the medium- to long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged. Focus on the effectiveness of support in the 3300-3285 area and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy. We recommend a flexible approach, using key breakthroughs as a guide for directional analysis, and cautiously holding positions before data releases.
XAUUSD SNIPER OUTLOOK – JULY 28, 2025🔥 Macro & Sentiment
The dollar remains dominant — DXY holding above 105 keeps gold under pressure. No fundamental support for bullish continuation unless major macro shifts. Risk flows are defensive, not aggressive. FOMC and US GDP data remain key drivers for direction this week.
BIAS:
• Short-term bearish under 3350
• Market still in distribution mode — every bounce gets sold
• Real buy interest only deep below 3315
🔻 INTRADAY SUPPLY ZONES (Short Only With Rejection)
1. 3382–3370 (H1/M30 Premium Supply)
🔹 H1 order block, FVG alignment, EMA21/50/100 convergence
🔹 Liquidity inducement above → then rejection
📍 Short only if rejection shows via engulf / upper wick.
2. 3355–3340 (Decision Zone / Micro Supply)
🔹 EMA100/200 alignment, former support flipped resistance
🔹 M30 FVG fully filled, structure flip from mid-July
📍 Short bias below. Long only if reclaimed with H1 close above 3355.
🔵 NEUTRAL / PIVOT ZONE
3. 3338–3326 (Decision Band – M30/M15)
🔹 Consolidation area post-BOS, internal liquidity sweeps
🔹 EMA21 base on M15, no clear dominance
📍 Wait for clean reaction. Bullish engulf = scalp long to 3355. Failure = slide to demand.
🟢 DEMAND ZONES (Buy Only On Strong Reversal Confirmation)
4. 3314–3302 (M30/M15 Deep Demand)
🔹 H1 OB + hidden FVG + fib 38.2%
🔹 First real demand zone where buyers may engage
📍 Long only if strong M15 confirmation: engulf + RSI cross + EMA5/21 angle change.
5. 3289–3272 (True Reversal Demand – H1/M30)
🔹 Full NY reversal origin (July 18), major FVG left unfilled
🔹 Institutional volume + liquidity grab zone
📍 Buy only on full flush + fast snapback with BOS on M15/H1.
🧭 BIAS & EXECUTION BY TIMEFRAME
H4 Bias:
Bearish while below 3350. No valid supply above until 3370+. Avoid longs unless price sweeps 3314 or 3272 and confirms.
H1 Bias:
Sell clean rejection at 3355 or 3370–3382. Only flip long above 3355 with full-bodied close.
M30 Bias:
Watch decision zone 3338–3326 for direction. No-man’s land in between — don’t force trades.
M15 Bias:
Scalp long from 3314 or 3272 only on full confluence (OB + RSI + EMA realignment). Short only confirmed rejections above.
📊 FULL INTRADAY KEY LEVELS (Top → Bottom)
Level Context
3405 Fib ext. 127% (HTF sweep target only)
3385 OB
3375–3350 Valid Premium Supply (H1 shelf)
3350–3340 Micro Supply / Flip Zone
3338–3326 Decision Zone – watch reaction
3314–3302 Deep Demand (H1/M30 confluence)
3289–3272 Extreme Demand Base
3260 Fib 61.8% + HTF support
3250 Minor volume node
3240 Final structural floor
✅ EXECUTION NOTES
⛔ Avoid entering inside 3340–3326 → fakeout zone
✅ Play only clean sniper triggers with structure
⚠️ Wait for macro — FOMC / GDP releases may fake both sides
💡 Patience wins. Pick your zone, wait for setup, strike.
Which zone are you watching to strike? Drop your bias below.
📍 Like, comment & follow GoldFxMinds for the most precise sniper maps on TradingView.
Disclosure: This plan is based on the Trade Nation chart feed. I am part of their Influencer Program.
GOLD: Time for massive drop? +3000 pips move! Gold has failed to breakthrough the previous resistance indicating a strong sellers hold around $3440 region. Now since the price has stared dropping we can see it dropping around $2800 in long term. In order for this to happen we need strong confirmation, which will help us understand the possible volume.
Agree with our idea?
Like and comment!
GOLD - Near Current Resistance? holding or not??#GOLD... so market perfectly holds our expected bottom and bounced back and now market just near to his current Resistance region.
that is around 3328 to 3332
keep close that region because if market hold it in that case we can see again drop towards our ultimate support 3310
NOTE: we will go for cut n reverse above 3332 on confirmation.
good luck
trade wisely
Gold Under Pressure – Temporary Pullback or Start of a DowntrendHello everyone, great to see you again.
Today, let’s focus on the bearish factors surrounding gold. At the time of writing, gold is trading around 3,331 USD, down 50 pips on the day, continuing its downward correction since the end of last week.
Within just a few days, gold has plunged from its peak of 3,433 USD—losing nearly 100 USD per ounce.
This sharp drop is largely driven by profit-taking and market anticipation ahead of key economic data next week, including U.S. interest rate decisions, inflation, and job reports.
This week is packed with critical updates: growth figures, inflation stats, employment numbers, and monetary policy decisions from major central banks—all of which could significantly impact gold’s next move.
According to a recent survey, 36% of analysts expect gold to fall further, while retail investors remain optimistic about a rebound.
For now, the market is clearly in a correction phase. Caution is advised.
What do you think—will gold bounce back or continue to drop?
Only by understanding the trend can you be firmly bullish.The market is changing rapidly, and going with the flow is the best way to go. When the trend comes, just go for it. Don't buy at the bottom against the trend, so as not to suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is good at dealing with all kinds of dissatisfaction, so you must not hold on to orders. I believe many people have experienced this. The more you resist, the more panic you will feel, and the floating losses will continue to magnify. You will not be able to eat or sleep well, and you will miss many opportunities in vain. If you also have these troubles, then you might as well follow Tian Haoyang's rhythm and try to see if it can make you suddenly enlightened. If you need help, I will always be here, but if you don't even extend your hand, how can I help you?
Gold rose unilaterally after the positive non-farm payrolls on Friday, hitting a new high this week. This week's K-line closed in a hammer shape, and the gold hourly line has a double bottom structure. However, gold should not have such a big retracement for the time being. The 3335-3330 line below is also an important support. So gold will mainly be bought on dips above 3335-3330 next week. Technically, there is still room for growth next week. The bulls continued to attack at the end of Friday and closed at 3363. Next week, we will continue to pay attention to the short-term suppression at the 3370-3375 line above. In terms of operations, we will continue to maintain retracement and buy. If your current operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate and exchange. Judging from the current gold trend, the short-term resistance above next week will be around 3370-3375, with a focus on the important pressure line of 3395-3400. Keep buying on pullbacks, and try to maintain a stable wait-and-see position in the middle. I will prompt the specific operation strategy at the bottom, so please pay attention in time.
Gold operation strategy: Go long on gold when it retraces to around 3340-3330, target 3370-3375, and continue to hold if it breaks through.
Gold continue to rise rapidly?Hello everyone! Let’s dive into what’s been happening with XAUUSD lately.
Last week, gold delivered a stunning reversal - plunging sharply and then surging nearly 800 pips within just a few sessions. This rapid shift was largely triggered by key remarks from the Federal Reserve Chair and several important economic data releases.
Specifically, weaker-than-expected US employment data has fueled growing expectations that the Fed could begin easing monetary policy sooner than anticipated. At the same time, a global financial survey shows that analyst sentiment toward gold is at its highest in months. In the face of persistent global uncertainty, gold is once again attracting strong safe-haven demand.
Despite the impressive rally, volatility remains high. The next moves in gold will likely hinge on upcoming economic indicators and further statements from Fed officials. Meanwhile, the holiday calendar may lead to quieter trading sessions ahead.
From a technical perspective, gold has broken out of its previous downtrend channel and is moving quickly. According to Dow Theory, a short-term correction may occur, but as long as price holds above key support levels, the bullish momentum could extend toward $3,416 — the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
This breakout could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase after weeks of consolidation.
What do you think – is this just the start of something bigger for gold?
Bearish reversal?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level, which serves as a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take-profit target.
Entry: 3,319.22
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss: 3,354.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 3,271.39
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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BUY GOLD i am so humble to publish this idea on GOLD i recmmend individuals to set buy limit orders with repsect to the stoplevels including take profits and stoploss ..
after. a very longdown fall of the gold , from he butifully set up hat we had last week , price now retraces to he demand zone with fully potential for buyers to tk over the control ...
i have refined this move with fully aces of technical view , ICT and SMC
Godluck and use proper risk management , Gold is highly volatile and its not recommended for young crying babies hence use proper risk management tips
XAUUSD Does it need to test the 1D MA100 first?Gold (XAUUSD) is attempting to break below its Triangle formation just 4 days after marginally breaking above it. This has invalidated that pattern so after breaking also below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it could technically go for a 1D MA100 (green trend-line) test for the first time since January 06 2025.
If it does, there will be more probabilities for a stronger than before rebound to make a new High. Our Targe is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $3620.
Keep also an eye on the 1D RSI Buy Zone, which has been giving the most optimal buy signals since April 07 2025.
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Market Analysis: Gold Prices Ease – Market Awaits Fresh CatalystMarket Analysis: Gold Prices Ease – Market Awaits Fresh Catalyst
Gold price started a fresh decline below $3,380.
Important Takeaways for Gold Price Analysis Today
- Gold price climbed higher toward the $3,430 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
- A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $3,350 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $3,380 resistance. The price even spiked above $3,400 before the bears appeared.
A high was formed near $3,432 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $3,380 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $3,350 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.
It tested the $3,325 zone. A low was formed near $3,325 and the price is now showing bearish signs. There was a minor recovery wave towards the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,433 swing high to the $3,325 low.
However, the bears are active below $3,342. Immediate resistance is near $3,350. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $3,350.
The next major resistance is near the $3,380 zone. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,433 swing high to the $3,325 low. The main resistance could be $3,410, above which the price could test $3,432. The next major resistance is $3,450.
An upside break above $3,450 could send the gold price towards $3,465. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $3,480 level.
Initial support on the downside is near the $3,325 level. The first major support is near the $3,310 level. If there is a downside break below it, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop towards the $3,265 support.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Gold Technical Analysis - Testing Key ResistanceGold has been showing a short-term bullish momentum after bouncing from the 3285 support zone, forming an ascending channel visible on the chart. The price is currently trading near 3361, close to the upper boundary of the channel and a key horizontal resistance level at 3365–3370. If the bullish momentum continues and price breaks above 3365–3370, we could see further upside toward 3396 and potentially 3400+. However, a failure to hold above this level could trigger a short-term retracement toward 3335–3325 support.
📈 Potential Scenarios:
- Bullish: If price sustains above $3,365, we could see an upside push toward $3,396 and possibly higher to $3,410 resistance.
- Bearish: A rejection near the channel top or $3,365 may lead to a pullback toward $3,325 (Fib 0.5) and then $3,285 support.
🔑 Key levels to watch:
- Upside: $3,365 → $3,396 → $3,410
- Downside: $3,335 → $3,325 → $3,285
- Trend Bias: Short-term bullish as long as price stays above 3325
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
XAUUSD Selling Expecting Movement Buy Zone Activated after rejection from resistance
First Target 3310.50
Final Target 3275.50
The bullish breakout scenario remains valid as long as price holds above the lower channel boundary. A clean break and retest of the current structure could provide further confirmation for long entries.
Key Notes
Watch for volatility near marked U.S. data events
Maintain tight risk management and monitor for rejection candles near target zones
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another PIPTASTIC day on the charts with our analysis once again hitting gold!!!
After completing all our bullish targets yesterday we stated that we will now look for EMA5 lock above 3424 to open the next bullish level at 3439.
- This played out perfectly completing 3439 to perfection!!
We are now seeing no further lock above 3439 confirming the rejection, which we are seeing now. We will now look for lower Goldturns to be tested for support and bounce inline with our plans to buy dips.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels, taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before, each of our level structures gives 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you backtest the levels we’ve shared every week for the past 24 months, you’ll see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid-term swings and trends.
The swing ranges give bigger bounces than our weighted levels, that’s the difference between the two.
BULLISH TARGET
3356 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3356 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3381 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3381 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3404 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3404 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3424 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3424 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3458
BEARISH TARGETS
3331
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3331 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3311
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3311 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3289
3266
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
BUYS on XAUUSD 'Contextual Market Structure (30M)'
Past Trend:
Clear bearish structure with a descending channel and consistent LHs and LLs.
Price respected dynamic trendlines, forming confluences with supply zones.
Shift in Structure (Bullish Reversal):
Price broke out of the descending channel aggressively, due to the NFP news released on friday which was bad for USD
Candlestick Behavior
Breakout Candle: Large-bodied bullish engulfing — confirms buying pressure
Retest Wicks: Sharp rejection on wicks below HL (~$3,278) shows rejection of lower pricing
Continuation Candles: Series of higher closes, minimal upper wicks = strength
Formed HL → HH → HL → HH, confirming bullish structure.
Retest of broken structure + demand zone respected (confirmed by wick rejections and bullish engulfing candles).
Weekly Trend Radar1. Macro Market Overview
Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. The decision was fully priced in, and the press conference offered no surprises: future rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data.
Markets initially reacted with a decline, but I do not see a structural break in the uptrend for commodities. It looks more like a healthy cooldown before the next leg higher .
However, the equity market is showing signs of deeper weakness . Historically, August tends to be a challenging month for stocks, and what we may be witnessing now is not a short-term correction but the early stages of a major downtrend.
Cryptocurrencies followed equities lower due to their high-beta, risk-on nature, but similar to metals, I believe the correction is temporary and the broader uptrend remains intact.
In energy markets, oil remains volatile — no clear setup for a long position yet. Natural gas has reached support and may offer a cautious long opportunity, though the medium-term trend is still bearish.
Overall, global markets are holding key levels, except for equities, which now look the weakest.
2. Metals
Buy the Dip!
🥇Gold
Gold ended the week slightly higher — a strong performance considering the broader market weakness. Its resilience highlights its role as a safe-haven asset. The bullish trend remains intact, and institutional support appears to be holding.
Trend: Bullish
Key Levels: Support at 3245, resistance at 3450
Position: Looking for a long entry next week
🥈Silver
A more volatile asset compared to gold, silver has pulled back but remains within its bullish trend. Friday’s daily candle showed promise, bouncing from the 50-day moving average. Despite not closing above Thursday’s high, the setup is constructive.
Trend: Bullish
Key Levels: Support at 36.30, resistance at 38.00
Position: Long, stop below Friday’s low at 36.30. New entries still valid.
⚪️Platinum
Similar structure to silver. Friday’s reversal candle signals potential continuation of the bullish move.
Trend: Bullish
Key Levels: Support at 1280, resistance at 1480
Position: Long, with stop below Friday’s low. Valid setup for new positions.
🔘Palladium
Strong technical picture even without a test of the 50-day MA. Remember — these MAs are not entry signals, but trend indicators. Entry is based on confluence, not location alone. And it would be nice to finally see parity with platinum.
Trend: Bullish
Key Levels: Support at 1185, resistance at 1260, 1310, 1340, 1370
Position: Planning to enter long at Monday’s open if the market is supportive. No entry if risk-off sentiment dominates.
🟠Copper
Copper is one of the most compelling setups this week. After a sharp 25% decline, it remains in an overall uptrend. Friday’s bullish candle on the daily chart is promising. A potential new rally may start from here.
Trend: Bullish
Key Levels: Support at 4.35, resistance at 5.15
Position: Planning to enter at Monday’s open, stop below Friday’s low.
3. Energy Markets
🛢️Crude Oil
I'm leaning toward a long setup, but Friday’s red candle on the daily chart signals the need for caution. Waiting for a clear reversal candle before entry.
Trend: Bullish
Key Levels: Support at 68.30, resistance at 72.68, 75.00, 77.70
Position: Waiting for lower volatility and confirmation from daily chart structure.
🔥Natural Gas
The asset has reached a strong support zone. Daily candles are starting to form a potential bottoming pattern, but we need to break through resistance at 3.20 to gain confidence.
Trend: Bearish (medium-term)
Key Levels: Support at 3.00, resistance at 3.20, 3.35, 3.65
Position: Cautious long, small size. Stop-loss is wide, so risk management is key.
4. S&P 500
📉I believe we are entering a major downtrend in the stock market. This is not just a correction — it's likely the beginning of a more sustained decline. I’m shifting my bias to short.
Trend: Bearish
Key Levels: Support at 6150; resistance at 6430
Position: Waiting for short opportunity.
5. Bitcoin
₿Bitcoin followed the equity market lower. The trend is still technically bullish, but the recent risk-off tone in equities warrants caution. Crypto is not a defensive asset and tends to experience sharper drawdowns.
That said, I do not expect another prolonged "crypto winter." Institutional involvement has improved market depth and liquidity, reducing the severity of future crashes — though volatility will remain elevated.
Trend: Bullish
Key Levels: Support at 112.000; resistance at 117.000, 121.000, 123.300
Position: Long, stop below Friday’s low. Act with caution.
How to correctly grasp the gold trading opportunities?Yesterday, gold prices saw a technical rally amidst volatile trading, followed by a downward trend under pressure. Bulls strongly supported a rebound at 3280 in the Asian session. The European session saw an accelerated upward move, breaking through 3314 before retreating under pressure. We also precisely positioned short positions below 3315, achieving a perfect target of 3290-3295. During the US session, the market again faced pressure at 3311, weakening in a volatile trend before breaking through 3300. The daily chart ultimately closed with a medium-sized bullish candlestick pattern, followed by a pullback and then a decline.
Overall, after yesterday's rebound, gold prices remain under pressure at the key resistance level of 3314. The short-term bearish weakness line has moved down to this level. If pressure continues in this area in the short term, gold will maintain a weak and volatile structure, with intraday trading remaining focused on rebounds and upward moves. If you are currently experiencing confusion or unsatisfactory trading strategies, please feel free to discuss your options and help avoid investment pitfalls.
From a 4-hour analysis perspective, focus on resistance at 3305-3315 on the upside. A rebound to this level is a good opportunity to short against resistance. Focus on support at 3280-3270 on the downside. Unless the price stabilizes strongly, consider not entering long positions below this level. The overall strategy remains to short on rebounds, with the same rhythm. I will provide timely notifications of specific levels from the bottom, so keep an eye on them.
Gold Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds near 3305-3315, with targets at 3290-3280-3270.