The summit is just around the corner, just one final push away!Gold closed sideways at a high level yesterday, and closed positive again overnight. It opened back to 3379 and pulled up strongly, breaking through the 3400 mark and then increasing in volume. The recent low-multiple bullish ideas have been realized. Today, there is no doubt that it will continue to be bullish and long. The market has turned from the previous sweeping upward to a strong unilateral trend. The upper side will first look at the previous high pressure of 3435. Continued breakthrough will further open up the upper space, or it will hit 3500 or even a new high again. The lower support focuses on the top and bottom conversion position of 3395-3405, and then pay attention to the 1H cycle support near 3410. Intraday operations are still mainly based on falling back and long.
Operation suggestion: Go long when gold falls back to 3395-3345, and look at 3434 and 3450. If it is strong, continue to go long with the support of 3415-3410.
GOLD trade ideas
Gold is challenging ATHGold meets resistance at 3,440 on Friday, despite a surge in geopolitical risks amid the Iran-Israel war. We expect the market to have a correction before rising to all-time highs.
The ideal ATH level is 3,650
What we want to see to achieve ideal level ?
The market rebounded from the POI level driven by a strong bull signal.
The market break and retest the last high at 3,500.
If the market reverses sharply after breaking 3,500, all the above scenarios will be invalid and a false breakout pattern will occur.
Fundamental level that you should pay attention:-
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be announced next week, and investors expect Powell to keep interest rates unchanged.
The Iran-Israel war could intensify geopolitical risks in the Middle East. If tensions escalate further, we expect gold price to surge.
The Federal Circuit will appeal Trump's tariffs as an abuse of presidential power on July 31, 2025
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last weeks KOG Report we said we would wait for the market to open and look for a reaction on the Red box and based on that reaction we would decide where we wanted to go and how to trade it! We immediately opened with a bounce which gave us the opportunity to then get on with the move upside as you can see in last weeks chart completing the move we wanted and the red box targets apart from 3406 (we got as far as 3404). We then identified the red box region we were expecting another RIP from and to the point we got the move down to complete the short. Please look at the chart, you will see how we picked the top, the bottom, and then the range trades within the circled levels with point to point, level to level trades all the way through the week.
A fantastic week in Camelot on not only Gold but all the other pairs we trade.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Looking at the economic calendar there isn’t much going on in the early part of the week so there is potential here for the move to terminate just below before giving a bounce upside into the levels of 3330-35 which is the level to watch for the break this week. A rejection at that level can cause further declines taking us into the 3350 level and possibly 3230-25 before we form a swing low.
There is a flip here as stated above, and that is that 3330-35 region, if we break above there then bulls have that opportunity to drive this upside to clear the NFP move and take us back to target the 3400 level. It all depends on the reactions we get at the levels so we’ll start the week with the plan of action, and of course, in these markets we’ll adapt If we have to.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bearish below 3336 with targets below 3306, 3299, 3297, 3285 and 3275
Bullish on break of 3336 with targets above 3345, 3350, 3355, 3367 and 3376
Red boxes:
Break above 3310 for 3320, 3332, if held above 3335, 3347 and 3362 in extension of the move
Break below 3306 for 3299, 3295, 3285, 3280 and 3264 in extension of the move
Many of our followers and traders have seen the power of the red boxes, Imagine this on your own TV screen, 4H for swing trading, 1H for day trading and 15min for scalping. Any pair on any chart 23hrs a day. Add to that the Knights indicator giving you swing points, key levels and retracement levels and our custom volume indicator telling you when to long, when to short and when to stand back from your trades.
LEARN AND GENERATE YOUR OWN SIGNALS. You don't need any of us to guide you.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Trump's comments boost risk aversionThe 4-hour K-line pattern of gold shows that the upward trend remains intact. The focus of the day is on the strong support range of 3360-3365 (technical resonance with the 5-week moving average). Before the price effectively breaks below the support band, the bulls still have upward momentum, otherwise the trend may reverse. The 3365-3420 range is maintained for the day. In the evening, the gold operation strategy, Mr. Weng, suggested that the callback to the 3370-3375 area should be arranged in batches. If the support of 3360-3365 is broken, add positions to go long.
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to go long at the callback to 3370-3375 for gold now, and add positions to go long at the support level of 3360-3365, with a stop loss at 3352 and a target of 3380-3420.
Hit the target with one strike! Gold perfectly cashed in 3435Gold closed sideways at a high level yesterday, and closed positive again overnight. It opened back to 3379 and pulled up strongly, breaking through the 3400 mark and then increasing in volume. The recent low-multiple bullish ideas have been realized. There is no doubt that it will continue to be bullish and long today. The market has turned from the previous sweeping upward to a strong unilateral trend. The upper side will first look at the previous high pressure of 3435. Continued breakthrough will further open up the upper space, or it will hit 3500 or even a new high again. The lower support focuses on the top and bottom conversion position of 3395-3405, and then pay attention to the 1H cycle support near 3410. The intraday operation is mainly long on the decline.
Operation suggestion: Go long on gold when it falls back to 3395-3345, and look at 3434 and 3450. If it is strong, continue to go long with the support of 3415-3410.
When operating, be sure to strictly set stop loss, strictly control risks, and respond to market fluctuations steadily.
Gold Loses Shine Amid Hopes the Middle East War Remains Under Co
Gold is showing little movement today, holding near $2,386 per ounce after a drop of over 1.4% yesterday.
This weak performance comes as market fears over the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict have eased. Investors are hopeful that energy supplies flowing from the region to the rest of the world will not face major disruption.
Scenarios that could shock oil prices, according to Axios , include Israel striking Iran’s key export facilities, Iran targeting production sites in the region, or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. None of these developments have occurred so far, which has kept fears of renewed inflation and persistently high interest rates in check.
The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal believes that global oil production capacity can absorb supply disruptions unless they are catastrophic, such as a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
As long as the conflict does not severely disrupt energy supplies, markets may downplay its impact. This limits the geopolitical risk premium that would otherwise support further gains in gold prices.
However, if diplomacy fails to contain the conflict soon, Iran may choose to escalate it by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, according to experts cited by The Journal . This concern could prompt the US and Gulf states to intensify diplomatic efforts or even pull the US directly into the conflict.
Beyond the military situation, markets are watching developments in the US-China trade dispute, where talks have yet to make meaningful progress. The lack of a breakthrough could push the US to impose restrictions on semiconductor exports and manufacturing equipment, threatening billions in American corporate sales, according to The Journal .
Such moves might trigger further escalation by China, which holds leverage through its dominance in rare earth metals. Renewed tensions could disrupt supply chains and drive inflation even higher.
Although recent inflation data do not suggest a sudden surge in prices, experts told The New York Times that the effects of tariffs and supply chain disruption may take months or even over a year to feed through to consumer prices. This is partly because sellers can rely on pre-tariff stockpiles and offer discounts for a period.
Failure to resolve these issues could see inflation rebound, keeping interest rates high at levels that the economy may not be able to bear. The chief economics commentator at The Journal wrote last week that the Federal Reserve should shift its focus from fighting inflation to supporting the economy through rate cuts, given signs of labor market weakness.
Persistently high rates or further increases, along with rising bond yields, may not weigh on gold. On the contrary, they could support demand for the safe-haven asset as worries about slowing growth and recession deepen.
Uncertainty in the bond market remains high compared to levels before the Ukraine war in 2022, as shown by the ICE BofAML TVC:MOVE index, which measures fear in the US Treasury bond market. This could limit the downward pressure of rising yields on gold prices.
Markets are awaiting tomorrow’s Fed decision on interest rates, with attention focused on Jerome Powell’s remarks after the announcement. A stronger Fed stance on keeping rates elevated for longer might temporarily pressure gold. However, renewed concerns about economic growth could quickly restore demand for the yellow metal.
Data from China also continue to fuel economic worries. Recent figures show industrial production and fixed-asset investment growth slowing more than expected, which could bolster demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Samer Hasn
XAUUSD SNIPER PLAN – TUESDAY, JUNE 10, 2025👋 Good evening traders!
After a choppy NY that faked both directions, Monday closed with gold stuck around 3325. But don’t be fooled — the real plays are coming Tuesday as we align with clean structure, trap logic, and real macro catalysts. Focus only on what matters.
Let’s prep with clarity and intent. 🎯
🌍 TUESDAY MACRO PREVIEW (JUNE 10)
📊 12:00pm – NFIB Small Business Index
🗣️ 10:00pm – President Trump speaks (market-moving risk)
🛢️ 10:30pm – API Weekly Oil Data (impacts USD sentiment)
No CPI or FOMC yet — but volatility is brewing. Trump + late-day oil stats = prime conditions for NY tricks or late-session moves.
🧠 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE
🔹 Last impulse: 3292 → 3338
🔹 Price now: 3325
🔹 Asia swept 3293 — partial gap fill
🔹 NY faked above 3338 → rejected → no follow-through
🔹 HTF still bullish but in pullback mode
📏 Fibonacci (3292–3338)
– 50% = 3315
– 61.8% = 3310
– 78.6% = 3303
📊 EMAs: 5/21 kissing → possible expansion
📉 RSI: Mid-range → clear room to move
🔐 STRUCTURE ZONES – CLEAN & ACTIVE
Price Zone Type Logic
3345–3354 SELL ZONE 1 HTF FVG + inducement trap
3362–3368 SELL ZONE 2 OB + liquidity clear above final highs
3329–3332 FLIP ZONE NY trap → could flip support or reject
3307–3310 BUY ZONE 1 61.8% + CHoCH potential + OB
3292–3296 BUY ZONE 2 Asia low + FVG + discount sweep
🎯 PLAN OF ATTACK
✅ Bullish Plan
– Hold above 3315–3320
– Break 3338 → retrace into 3310/3307 = sniper long
🎯 TP: 3354 → 3368
❌ Bearish Plan
– Fail under 3332 → tap 3345–3354 for reaction
– Rejection = sell into 3310–3296
🎯 TP: 3310 → 3292
⚠️ 3329–3332 = reaction zone only
Do not sell blindly — wait for confirmation.
👀 EYES ON:
– 3338 = intraday BOS point
– 3307 = sniper trigger if CHoCH
– Trump speech = high spike risk
– NY tends to reverse early Asia setups
🚀 FINAL WORD
We’re not here to chase noise — we’re here to execute with structure.
You’ve got two clean sells, two sniper buys, and real macro risk on the table.
No guesswork. Just precision.
💬 What’s your plan for Tuesday?
Do you see the 3362 trap playing out?
Are you waiting for the 3307 sniper?
👇 Drop your scenario in the comments — let’s compare setups and grow together.
📲 Follow @GoldFxMinds for daily sniper clarity
🎯 Let’s dominate CPI week. Together.
💬 Drop a 🚀 if you’re locked in for NY
🔥 Let’s make Tuesday count — clean, confident, and calculated.
XAUUSD: June 17 Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3450, support below 3355
4-hour chart resistance 3420, support below 3372
1-hour chart resistance 3403, support below 3375
The recent rise and fall of gold is completely controlled by market news. The next move of Israel and Iran directly affects the rise and fall of gold. It rises under the stimulation of the escalation of the situation and begins to pull back when the situation eases. The long and short positions form a short-term tug-of-war pattern, but the fundamentals have not changed. Gold is still in a bull market.
Today's rebound high is in the 3405/03 area. This position has formed a top and bottom conversion position. It is bound to have a certain suppressive effect on the rebound of gold prices. You can refer to the 3403/05 area for shorting during the day. Pay attention to the vicinity of 3370 below. If you hold this support level, you can buy short-term. The intraday volatility is not expected to be large, which is suitable for fast-in and fast-out transactions!
SELL: 3402near SL: 3407
BUY: 3370near SL: 3365
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for June 19Gold technical analysis
Daily level upper resistance 3500 lower support 3338
4-hour upper resistance 3419 lower support 3361
1-hour upper resistance 3400 lower support 3366
Gold news analysis: This week, gold rose to 3450 with the help of regional conflicts and then fell, eventually falling below the 3400 integer mark. Combining the intraday trend and the gradually downward movement of the high point in the weekly chart, it can be seen that the short-sellers' control in the market is gradually increasing. From a technical point of view, yesterday's decline drove the gold price to run below the middle track of the Bollinger band again, and the short-term 5-day moving average also fell. Although there is still a possibility of a rebound in the short term, the overall pattern is bearish. The Bollinger band has signs of closing, which means that there may be a shock adjustment in the future, especially the rebound strength after the support is worth paying attention to.
Gold operation suggestions: From the current trend analysis, the support below focuses on the four-hour level 3365 and the one-hour level 3366 support, and the upper pressure focuses on the vicinity of 3419. The short-term long-short strength and weakness dividing line is near 3361. Continue to buy on dips before the four-hour level falls below this position.
Buy: 3361near SL: 3355
Buy: 3400near SL: 3995
Sell@3335Technically, the first key support range is at 3,240-3,260. If this area holds as effective support, it may trigger a short-term rebound. Close attention should be paid to updates on U.S. tariff policies and the evolution of the situation in war-torn countries, as geopolitical risks may exacerbate market volatility ⚠️
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@ 3360 - 3240
🚀 TP 3310 - 3290
🚀 Buy@ 3250 - 3260
🚀 TP 3290 - 3310
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Gold falls back to bullish trendAfter gold opened at 3450 this week, it gradually fell to 3365, with a range of 100 US dollars. Although the main force of the two trading days is a decline, the bullish trend remains unchanged. In an uncertain environment, there is still a chance of a big rise in the future. From the 4-hour chart of gold, gold has continuously appeared in the form of a negative line, and the price continues to run below the short-term moving average, and the short-term moving average forms a downward resistance. The adhesion of the 5-day moving average and the 20-day moving average forms a strong pressure, and the MACD indicator also shows a dead cross pattern, suggesting that the bears may continue the downward trend. However, the lower track of the Bollinger Band provides some support, so at the 4-hour level, the bears are dominant and gold may continue to extend downward. The range performance in the 4-hour chart is obvious. On Tuesday, it fell sharply to 3365, which is just the support point of the lower Bollinger track. The performance of weak fluctuations is temporarily below the H4 Bollinger middle track. The range in the short term is 3405-3365. If it breaks 3405 upward, then the 4-hour chart becomes stronger and 3450 can be seen above. This possibility is very high because the market may have performance news at any time. However, if it falls below 3365, there is still a possibility of going to 3350 in the daily cycle. Therefore, there is actually no absolute certainty for gold in this cycle. For the intraday market, it is recommended to accumulate in the short term. In the case of no new lows, the 3370 support is an opportunity to go long. If it does not break 3405 above, it is necessary to break 3405 in the short term to get out of the trend strength.
Gold operation strategy: short gold when it rebounds to around 3395-3393, stop loss at 3403, target at 3370-3364; it is recommended to go long gold when it falls back to around 3370, stop loss at 3360, target at 3390-3400;
XAUUSD Breakout Brewing -- Squeeze Setup in Play📆 June 12, 2025 | ⏱ 4H Chart Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) is pressing against a key trendline resistance while holding a clean, ascending trendline from early March — forming a classic triangle squeeze.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
The long-term bullish trendline has been respected three times, with each touch followed by strong buying interest (see orange circles).
Current price action is compressing between this trendline and descending resistance, tightening toward a potential breakout zone.
Two likely outcomes on the table:
🔺 Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above $3,385 could fuel a rally toward $3,500–$3,520, especially if momentum accelerates.
🔻 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown below $3,260 risks deeper correction toward the $3,000 psychological level, aligning with prior demand zones.
📊 Indicators Insight:
EMA(15) & EMA(60) have flattened → signaling potential volatility expansion ahead.
Volume is building slightly, adding weight to a coming move.
=================================================================
⚖️ Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice)
🟢 Buy on breakout above 3,385, Target: 3,500+
🔴 Sell on breakdown below 3,260, Target: 3,000
📌 Wait for confirmation and avoid chasing within the squeeze range.
💬 What's your take — will gold break through or bounce back?
📌 Follow for consistent multi-timeframe setups across Gold, Silver, and FX majors — 2–3 times weekly.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutSetup #Forex #EMA #SqueezePlay #TrianglePattern #tradingview #MJTrading
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000.
Interpretation of the Data:
Current Level:
Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient.
Labor Market Momentum:
The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months.
Seasonal and Technical Factors:
Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments.
Impact on Markets and Fed Policy:
The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply.
This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures.
The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further.
Federal Reserve June 2025 FOMC Decision and Market Implications
1. Federal Funds Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% at its June 18, 2025 meeting, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change in rates.
2. FOMC Economic Projections
The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the "dot plot," was released alongside the rate decision.
Key highlights:
Policymakers continue to project two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, but the timing remains data-dependent and could shift if inflation or labor market conditions change.
The Fed’s economic outlook reflects slower growth, slightly higher unemployment, and persistent inflation risks compared to earlier in the year.
The median forecast for core PCE inflation in 2025 is 2.8%, with GDP growth expected at 1.7%.
The unemployment rate is projected to rise modestly, with the labor market showing signs of gradual cooling.
3. FOMC Statement Highlights
The FOMC statement emphasized a data-dependent approach, noting that while inflation is easing, it remains above the 2% target.
The committee acknowledged mixed economic signals: inflation is moderating, but labor market participation has declined and global uncertainties (tariffs, geopolitical tensions) persist.
The Fed reiterated its commitment to maintaining restrictive policy until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward target.
4. FOMC Press Conference (7:30pm)
Chair Jerome Powell reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance, stating that the committee needs to see more evidence of sustained progress on inflation before considering rate cuts.
Powell highlighted that the timing and pace of future rate cuts will depend on incoming data, particularly regarding inflation and labor market trends.
The press conference also addressed external risks, including the impact of tariffs and geopolitical events on the economic outlook.
5. Market and Economic Implications
Bond Yields and Dollar: The decision to hold rates steady, combined with cautious forward guidance, is likely to keep the 10-year Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar relatively stable in the near term.
Rate Cut Expectations: Markets continue to price in the first rate cut for September 2025, but the Fed’s projections suggest a slower and more data-driven path to easing.
Key Risks: Upside risks to inflation (e.g., from energy prices or tariffs) and downside risks to growth (e.g., from labor market softening) remain central to the Fed’s outlook.
6. Summary Table
Federal Funds Rate 4.25%–4.50% (unchanged) No immediate change in borrowing costs
Rate Cut Projections 2 cuts in 2025 (data-dependent) First cut likely in September
Core PCE Inflation 2.8% (2025 forecast) Above target, supports cautious Fed
GDP Growth 1.7% (2025 forecast) Slower growth outlook
Unemployment Rate Gradual increase expected Labor market cooling
Conclusion
The Fed’s June 2025 decision reflects a steady, cautious approach amid persistent inflation and a gradually cooling labor market. The committee remains data-driven, with future rate cuts contingent on clear evidence of sustained progress toward its inflation and employment goals.
#GOLD # DXY
Strong support at 3365/3350In recent years, following the easing of high inflation pressures in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has maintained a high-interest-rate policy, a decision that has significantly impacted gold and U.S. dollar markets: high rates have boosted the U.S. dollar while suppressing gold demand 📉.
This week, gold prices defied market expectations: fueled by geopolitical conflicts, gold surged last Friday and opened higher on Monday, only to trend lower thereafter ⬇️. The hourly chart shows a series of lower lows, with 3,400 emerging as short-term resistance, while gold currently oscillates around 3,380 🔄. With key economic data pending release, gold may still rebound (the initial jobless claims data was advanced to Wednesday) ⏰.
Technically, gold remains in a unilateral uptrend on the daily chart, with strong support at 3,365/3,350 from the 5-day and 10-day moving averages—though not yet in an extremely strong trend 📈. Key resistances lie at 3,430/3,450: a break above 3,450 could pave the way for a challenge to the previous high of 3,500 🏔️!
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 3365 - 3375
🚀 TP 3395 - 3405
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Gold Trading Strategy June 12Yesterday's D1 daily frame bounced and closed above 3347. That led to a price gap today.
3375 is a resistance zone that is showing a price reaction in the European session. If it cannot be broken by mid-European session, it is possible to set up a sell at 3355. The 3355 zone for BUY strategies is in the price gap created at the beginning of today's trading session.
Any price decrease today is considered a good opportunity for buying Gold to aim for 3432
Pay attention to the 3355-3347-3321 zone for today's BUY signals. Target is still 3432 but you need to pay attention to the 3397 zone where there may be a reaction from the Sellers.
Support: 3355-3347-3321
Resistance: 3397-3432
XAUUSD - 4H Breakout and Retest Setup🟡🟡🟡
🕒 June 17, 2025
Bias: Medium-Term Bullish
Structure: Breakout → Retest → Continuation
Context: Trendline break + confluence with EMA + prior resistance turned support
🔍 Market Structure Insight:
Major descending trendline broken with strong impulsive momentum.
Pullback held at the intersection of:
Broken trendline retest
EMA 60 dynamic support
Bullish structure of HL-HH (Higher Low / Higher High)
Strong bullish candle at support
✅ Trade Plan – Buy Stop Setup
Entry (Buy Stop): 3402
SL: 3373 (below the pullback structure + EMAs)
TP1: 3430 (local resistance area)
TP2: 3470 (measured move from previous leg height)
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutSetup #Forex #EMA #SqueezePlay #TrianglePattern #tradingview #MJTrading
XAUUSD – Gold breaks trend: Is a deeper fall coming?Gold has officially broken the ascending trendline that had held since mid-May, confirming a breakdown in the bullish structure. After failing to breach the strong resistance at 3,445 USD, selling pressure intensified, driving the price down to 3,390 USD — yesterday’s closing level.
This move came right after the FOMC meeting, where the Fed held interest rates steady but maintained a hawkish tone, strengthening the USD and weighing heavily on gold.
While tensions in the Middle East continue to offer short-term support, U.S. monetary policy remains the dominant force. Without a fresh geopolitical shock, gold appears increasingly vulnerable to a deeper correction.