XAUUSD: Analysis June 13This morning, the gold market witnessed a strong price increase after receiving two important news:
- US CPI was lower than expected, causing the USD to weaken.
- Israel continued to strike Gaza, raising concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East.
🟨Trend: Strong increase - Break resistance
✅ Potential Buy Zone: 3410 – 3405: This is the breakout zone after the news, you can wait to buy if the price retests. SL 2399
❌ Potential Sell Zone (exit block or surfing):
✅ 3450 - 3455, SL 3461: Strong resistance, old accumulation zone (according to Bar chart, Resistance is determined at 3,455). If RSI/H1 shows overbought signal, consider taking profit or short Sell.
GOLD trade ideas
Gold Weekly Outlook: Bullish Breakout on DeckHello,
🪙 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook
📅 May 25 – 30, 2025
📍 Current Price: $3,355.35
📈 RSI (1D): 57.99 — Neutral to mild bullish momentum
🔮 Summary & Key Levels
Gold remains bullish, supported by USD weakness, geopolitical tension, and safe-haven demand. Without hawkish shocks, expect a test of $3,440+ this week.
Level Significance Likelihood
$3,300 – $3,355 Support zone, dip-buying likely 🔵 High
$3,355 – $3,390 Current range, mild upside grind 🟡 Moderate
$3,390 – $3,440 Key resistance test 🟢 Likely if USD weak
$3,440 – $3,500 Breakout extension zone 🟠 Conditional (Fed/dovish data needed)
< $3,280 Bearish invalidation 🔴 Unlikely barring major USD reversal
🧭 Directional Bias:
Bullish with breakout potential — driven by rising U.S. debt concerns, Fed rate cut talk, and risk aversion.
🔍 Supporting Factors
US Dollar Weakness:
USD dropped 1.4–2.3% vs majors; JPY & CHF gained as safe havens.
Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating and weak Treasury auctions amplify fiscal stress.
Trump’s tariff threats revive trade war fears, pressuring USD further.
Fed & Inflation Watch:
Fed speakers mixed; Waller hinted at cuts if tariffs escalate.
May 31 Core PCE inflation data critical — softer print could ignite breakout.
Safe-Haven Rotation:
JPY & CHF strength signals risk hedging.
Global tensions, equity fragility, Middle East unrest support gold demand.
🌐 Global Macro Highlights & Gold Implications
Region Highlights Gold Impact
🇺🇸 US Fiscal strain, downgrade, mixed data 🟢 Bullish
🇪🇺 Eurozone Hawkish ECB, stable inflation 🟡 Mildly bullish
🇬🇧 UK Strong CPI, Brexit optimism ⚪ Neutral
🇯🇵 Japan Hawkish BoJ pivot, rising inflation 🟢 Safe-haven driver
🇨🇭 Switzerland CHF rally, deflation concerns 🟢 Risk-off tone
🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿 Mixed data, dovish bias ⚪ Commodity FX support
📅 Key Events to Watch (May 25–30)
Date Event Impact on Gold
Daily Fed speakers (Waller, Bostic) 🟠 Dovish tone supports gold
Friday US Core PCE Inflation 🟥 Major catalyst — soft print = breakout risk
Anytime Trump tariff announcements 🟥 Volatility spike = bullish catalyst
Ongoing Risk sentiment & equity volatility 🟠 Supports safe-haven flows
✅ Bottom Line
Gold’s technical and macro setup is strong. A push above $3,390 could open a move toward $3,440–$3,470, especially if Friday’s PCE data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Downside limited unless USD sentiment reverses sharply.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Following up on last week’s chart update, we saw another perfect test of the channel top, right in line with our Goldturn Channel expectations. The new weekly candle completed the channel top challenge with precision, once again confirming the strength of our resistance levels.
As anticipated, the rejection came in cleanly, followed by a correction into EMA5 detachment, which halted just short of the 3281 level, a crucial axis we've been tracking for multiple weeks. This level continues to act as firm support, holding price within an evolving range.
We’re now seeing price action contained between 3281 and 3387, with potential for expansion higher as the ascending channel continues to rise. This expanding structure offers more room for strategic positioning, especially as price coils tighter within the upper band.
The 3387 gap remains active and is an obvious magnet if momentum builds. As long as we stay above the half line and especially above 3281, we remain in buy the dip mode, favouring long setups off our intraday Goldturns for quick 20 40 pip scalps or swing entries when conditions align.
Should we see a deeper pullback or close below 3281, we’ll reassess potential movement toward the lower channel boundary. Until then, the structure remains bullish within the channel.
The Goldturn methodology continues to prove its worth, cutting through noise and keeping us aligned with the real structure of the market.
Stay sharp, stay patient.
MR GOLD
GOLDVIEWFX
GOLD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 3,373.02.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 3,354.03 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Stick to shorting goldGold is currently fluctuating in a narrow range of 3380-3385, and the trend is relatively slow. We also need more patience. In comparison, I think the current short-selling force has a slight upper hand, because gold has shown signs of accelerating decline after a difficult rebound many times, and has fallen below 3380 many times. According to the current gold structure, gold does not have sufficient room for decline, and it is still possible to continue to fall to the 3365-3355 area.
It is expected that gold will not fluctuate too much before the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's monetary policy press conference. For this interest rate decision, I think the possibility of a rate cut is not great, and the current interest rate may still remain unchanged. The reduction in the expectation of a rate cut may stimulate a wave of gold declines in the short term. So in the short term, I still prefer a short trade in gold. Obviously, gold is currently under pressure in the 3395-3405 area, so we can still try to short gold in this area.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | June 18, 2025🌀 Current Wave Structure on H4
The recent drop has broken below the previously labeled wave 1 zone, requiring an adjustment to our wave count. Following the abc corrective move (black), a potential triangle formation is emerging.
At this point, we’re monitoring two possible scenarios:
🔹 Scenario 1 – Triangle as a Wave X Correction:
Price is forming an abcde triangle, potentially part of a larger WXY corrective structure. If this plays out, we may see a strong decline forming wave Y, targeting a break below 3297, and possibly extending to 3248.
🔹 Scenario 2 – Leading Diagonal Triangle as Wave 1:
If this is a leading diagonal triangle for wave 1, then wave 1 is likely completed, and we are currently in wave 2. In this scenario, price should hold above 3248, with likely support zones around 3335 or 3300.
🎯 Key Price Zones & Resistance Levels
Major Resistance: 3389 – 3402 (based on volume profile) – prime area for potential short setups.
Short-term Resistance Levels: 3389, 3402, 3412 – watch for reversal signals here.
🔻 Momentum Outlook
Daily (D1): Momentum is declining and expected to enter oversold territory within 2 candles – indicating a weakening downtrend and supporting the leading diagonal scenario.
H4: Momentum is preparing to turn bearish – supports short opportunities.
H1: Already turned bullish – suggests a possible corrective bounce before the next drop.
📌 Trade Plan
🔴 Sell Zone: 3400 – 3403
• SL: 3410
• TP1: 3365
• TP2: 3335
🟢 Buy Zone 1: 3335 – 3332
• SL: 3325
• TP1: 3365
• TP2: 3402
🟢 Buy Zone 2: 3302 – 3209
• SL: 3292
• TP1: 3335
• TP2: 3365
• TP3: 3402
showing a descending wedge (falling wedge) pattern formingThis is a 30-minute (M30) chart of XAUUSD (Gold vs. US Dollar), showing a descending wedge (falling wedge) pattern forming, which is a classic bullish reversal setup.
Chart Description:
Pattern Formed:
Descending wedge is clearly drawn with:
Lower highs and lower lows, converging between two trendlines.
Price action is respecting both boundaries of the wedge.
Current price is mid-range inside the wedge.
Projected Price Path (Dotted Arrows):
The chart suggests:
A possible fakeout or final dip towards the wedge's lower boundary.
Followed by a rejection and bullish breakout.
Target would likely be above 3,392+, possibly aiming toward the wedge's origin zone (~3,408 or higher).
Market Implication:
This setup is typically bullish, especially if:
Volume increases near the lower edge.
Price fails to make a new low and starts printing bullish structure (HL → HH).
Summary:
XAUUSD is consolidating inside a falling wedge on the 30m chart, suggesting potential for a bullish breakout. Traders may anticipate one last liquidity sweep before a breakout toward higher resistance levels.
Trading strategy june 18Yesterday's D1 candle was a Doji candle. It shows the hesitation of buyers and sellers at the price near ATH.
The h4 structure is a sustainable bullish wave structure and is heading towards higher hooks.
The 3400 zone is the immediate resistance zone that Gold is heading towards. This zone will be the breakout zone for the confirmation of the candle closing above 3400.
The profit-taking reaction zone of sellers at 3415 acts as a price reaction when the price uptrends again and creates momentum towards 3443.
On the opposite side, the breakout point of 3472, if broken, will push the price to the support zone of 3342
Break out zone: 3400; 3372
Resistance: 3415; 3443
Support: 3343
Buy GoldPrice is at a major Daily resistance,but becuz of the war between Israel and Iran, price may spike below to take out traders, then continue pushing upwards. However , all this is possible if this region hold support, if it does, I'd look to see a pattern been formed on the 1hr tf that indicates bullish momentum, if this doesn't happen, then there's a previous weekly resistant that price may fall in order to tap. But the most important thing is having a good psychology, that's what makes you a good trader, we can say so much about the market direction,but it should be noted that, things do change, anything can happen, so while waiting for the right setup or while anticipation for buys, only those with a strong and disciplined mindset will survive the chaos... Happy Trading 💹
Gold XAUUSD Move 16 June 2025Market Structure:
The market isin a clear uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows until a recent break of the ascending trendline, signaling a short-term structural weakness.
Current price is in a retracement phase, heading towards previous demand zones.
🔹 Zone 1 (3408–3414):
Confluence of:
Broken trendline retest (former support).
Minor order block / demand zone.
Overlapping price reaction area.
Risk: This zone may act as a liquidity inducement before price sweeps deeper into Zone 2.
Entry trigger: Bullish engulfing or LTF market structure shift on 1m/5m.
🔹 Zone 2 (3380–3384):
Stronger demand zone:
Aligned with previous accumulation base.
Larger imbalance (FVG-type area) and bullish impulsive origin.
More convincing for high-RR entries.
Higher probability: If Zone 1 fails or only wicks price, Zone 2 may provide the main entry opportunity.
Entry trigger: Shift in LTF structure with volume spike or breaker flip.
✅ Trade Signal Suggestions
🟦 Setup 1: Buy from Zone 1
Entry: 3410 (upon bullish confirmation)
SL: 3400 (below structure low)
TP: 3434 (prior high)
RR: ~2.4R
Note: Only take if price forms bullish structure (MSS or BOS) on lower timeframe.
🟦 Setup 2: Buy from Zone 2
Entry: 3380/3384 (upon confirmation)
SL: 3372 (below demand zone)
TP: 3411 or 3434 (scalp to intraday swing)
RR: ~1:3 or better
Note: Wait for clean rejection or reversal candle from this zone.
⚠️ Risk Management
Risk 0.5–1% per trade.
Use entry confirmation such as:
Bullish engulfing
Fair value gap reaction
Break of internal structure
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) - 30m ChartA 30-minute candlestick chart showing the price movement of Gold Spot against the U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD). The current price is $3,433.88, reflecting a +$48.32 (+1.43%) increase. The chart highlights a recent upward trend with a shaded resistance zone around $3,460.06 and a support level near $3,400.06, as of 10:52 AM PKT on June 15, 2025.
Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly Forecast - 16 to 20 June 2025🔥 Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Outlook | June 16–20, 2025
🧭 Macro & Geopolitical Context
Israel–Iran war (Operation Rising Lion) has escalated: Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure on June 13, followed by Iranian missile/drone retaliation, have sharply intensified regional conflict .
The safe‑haven bid is in full swing: spot gold surged toward $3,500, breaking $3,400 last week, driven by risk‑off flows and a weaker US dollar .
🧩 Fundamental Catalysts
1. Fed dovish tilt: May CPI/PPI prints came in soft, lifting expectations for rate cuts. No change is expected at the June 18 meeting, but the Fed’s dot‑plot and Powell’s tone offer upside triggers .
2. Technical breakout: Gold has reclaimed key levels—23.6% Fibonacci (~ $3,377) now acts as support, with the next resistance zones at $3,450 → $3,500 .
3. Bank & analyst sentiment: Goldman Sachs sees potential for $3,700 by year-end; Bank of America projects a path toward $4,000/oz .
📊 Technical Setup & Levels
Support: $3,400; next down at $3,377 (23.6% Fibo) and $3,325 (21‑day SMA) .
Resistance: $3,450 → major barrier $3,500 (all‑time high).
Momentum: RSI around 62—leaves room for further upside .
Catalysts to Monitor
June 18 Fed meeting: Dot‑plot, Powell’s press conference.
Any Iran retaliation or widening of the conflict.
Short‑term US data: June CPI, PPI, Retail Sales (especially mid‑week).
USD strength or weakness—dollar reversal could clip gold gains.
Follow for more updates
#XAUUSD #GOLD #Goldanalysis #WeeklyAnalysis #trade
XAUUSD Breakout Alert | Bullish Momentum in PlayGold has finally broken out of the consolidation zone that held price action for several weeks. The bullish trendline has acted as solid support, and now we're seeing strong momentum toward the key $3,500 resistance level.
🔍 Technical Setup:
✅ Price breakout from consolidation range
✅ Respecting a clean bullish trendline
📈 Immediate resistance at $3,490–$3,500
🔄 Potential for a retest before continuation
Strategy Insight: We may see a minor pullback to the breakout zone (~$3,400–$3,420), which could offer a solid buy-the-dip opportunity before further upside.
🎯 Bullish Targets: $3,500 and beyond
⚠ Invalidation Zone: Break below trendline
📢 Gold traders—what’s your plan? Are you in or waiting for a retest?
#XAUUSD #GoldBreakout #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ForexTrading #TrendlineSupport #TradingView
Gold Price Analysis June 13Yesterday's D1 candlestick increased, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Following that uptrend, the Asian session saw a strong increase in price to the highest peak of 3443. If there is still confirmation from the h4 candlestick above 3395, today will still be a bullish candlestick with a large amplitude at the end of the day.
After reaching the highest peak of the month, Gold is having a downward correction at the end of the Asian session. This correction lasts until the support of 3397 to have a good BUY signal. In case you want to SELL, you must wait for a 50% test of the previous full-force downtrend H1 candle (around 3434) and the continuation of the Selling side.
If the 50% test does not appear, you must reverse to find a BUY Breakout point. Note that the False break at the peak of 3343 should wait for confirmation of the small-frame DOW wave to enter the order, which will be safer for this morning's break.
If you get a BUY order, the target will be 3364 and this area will have a profit-taking reaction from the Buyers, causing the price to decrease. Gold may touch the threshold before ATH 3394 and there will be a reaction.
In the opposite direction, there is a sweep to 3376, which is considered the daily support zone and you can buy in this area.
All SELL signals are considered obstacles, so set a short target and a new BUY signal sets a long expectation.