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Gold XAUUSD Weekly Analysis 4-8 August 2025XAUUSD Weekly Outlook (SWING) Price is currently approaching a crucial resistance and supply zone between 3363 – 3373. This area has historically acted as a strong rejection point and remains a significant decision level for upcoming market direction. Bullish Scenario: If price breaks and closes above the 3363–3373 zone and later retests it successfully—potentially around the 3400 level—this would indicate a bullish market structure shift. A strong reaction from the retest could open the path toward 3438, with a possible extension to 3500. Bearish Scenario: Alternatively, a rejection from the 3363–3373 supply zone without a confirmed breakout would likely trigger a downside move, targeting the lower demand area near 3250. This 3363–3373 zone remains the key pivot. Watch for price action confirmation to validate either scenario.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by QuinnReed_Charts
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis – NeoWave Perspective📅 August 2025 | 📈 4H Chart 📍Posted by: @ CryptoPilot Gold completed a corrective Wave A near $3160 at the bottom of the descending channel. It then rallied to $3440, followed by a decline toward the channel’s midline at $3227, beginning a potential Wave C. Attempts to break and hold above the channel failed. Price has since broken below the trendline and is now pulling back to retest it from below. ⸻ 🔍 Key Insights: • 📉 No long entries recommended at current levels • ✅ Bullish confirmation requires a clear breakout and close above the channel top • 🛒 Safer long setup may emerge near $3120 at the channel bottom and possible Wave C completion zone. ⸻ 🔑 Key Levels: • Resistance: $3380–$3440 • Support: $3120 • Invalidation / Stop-loss: Below $3110 ⸻ 📌 Follow @ CryptoPilot for more wave structure insights, SMC confluence, and multi-timeframe strategies. 💬 Drop your thoughts and alternate counts in the comments below!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by CryptoPilot
GOLD/USD – 1H ChartGold has recently shown a clear Change of Character (CHoCH) near the 3275 level, signaling a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum. After a strong downtrend, the market formed a base and then launched an aggressive bullish rally, breaking previous structure and indicating a possible trend reversal. Currently, price is consolidating around the 3350–3360 zone, just above a key demand zone between 3330 and 3340, which is likely to act as a support area. This zone also aligns with a previous supply area that has now flipped into demand, confirming smart money interest. The projected move shows a potential short-term dip into this demand zone before continuing the upward push toward the 3370–3390 range, where buy-side liquidity is likely resting. This level could act as a near-term target or resistance. If price holds above 3330 and shows bullish confirmation (like an engulfing pattern or FVG reaction), buyers could look for opportunities with targets near 3370 and 3390. However, if the price breaks below 3330 with strong bearish momentum, the bullish bias may be invalidated, and we could see further downside. Overall, the structure is bullish, but traders should watch for a retest of the demand zone before entering long positions. Risk should be managed carefully with stops below 3330. What You Should Watch: Entry confirmation around 3,335–3,340 with bullish engulfing or FVG reaction Set TP1 = 3,370 TP2 = 3,390 SL = Below 3,330
FX:XAUUSDLong
by forexcitysignal
Weak non-farm payroll data injects newconfidence into gold bullsGold rebounded strongly late last week, shaking off early-week losses and surging toward key resistance at $3,400 per ounce as weak US jobs data rekindled hopes for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold closed at $3,363.16 on Friday (August 1st), up 2.23% on the day, or $73.24, after hitting a high of $3,363.37. Lukman Otunuga, senior market strategist at FXTM, said Friday's rally in gold prices was impressive, driven by a plunging US dollar. "From the chart, bulls were on a rampage that day, with $3,400 within 2% of the price at that point," he said. "With prices breaking through $3,330 resistance, the weekly chart is significantly bullish. A weekly close above this level could signal a move toward $3,400." Last week, gold faced significant selling pressure after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and Chairman Powell raised uncertainty about a possible September rate cut. "We haven't made a decision about September yet," Powell said at a press conference following the Fed's decision. After disappointing U.S. job market data, lingering doubts about a September rate cut dissipated. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy created only 73,000 jobs last month. Furthermore, total job growth in May and June was revised downward by 258,000. According to the revised data, only 14,000 jobs were created in June and 19,000 in May. "This weaker-than-expected jobs report has dented confidence in the U.S. economy and put pressure on the dollar as markets anticipate a more dovish Fed, potentially leaning toward rate cuts to stimulate growth," said Aaron Hill, senior market analyst at FP Markets. "For gold, the disappointing jobs data reinforces its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty, supporting prices as investors seek stability." According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently sees a 92% probability of the Fed easing monetary policy in September. Last Thursday, the market saw only a 38% chance of a rate cut. Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said the Federal Reserve may ultimately regret its decision to hold interest rates steady earlier this week. "A rate cut in September is a definite possibility, perhaps even a 50 basis point cut, to make up for lost time," he said. Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, said he sees the potential for gold prices to steadily rise to $3,400 an ounce given the sharp shift in interest rate expectations. "If the Fed signals a dovish stance, speculative inflows could push gold prices above the psychological $3,400 level, especially as investors seek safe havens during economic uncertainty," he said. "Technical indicators, such as a bullish trend in gold ETFs and rising open interest, support this potential breakout. We believe traders are already positioning for a dip bounce, with some analysts pointing to seasonal patterns in gold that typically gain traction after August. While volatility may still limit near-term gains, the overall trend looks positive, and the typical summer lull may be over." This week will be light on economic data, with investors continuing to digest Friday's jobs report. Meanwhile, some analysts expect the economic uncertainty stemming from President Trump's ongoing trade war and global tariffs to further boost safe-haven demand for gold. Trade tensions are providing another layer of support for gold. President Trump set an August 1st deadline for countries to finalize a trade deal. While the United States reached agreements with Japan and the European Union, resulting in a 15% increase in import tariffs, many major trading partners still face the risk of tariff increases. As a result, exports from many countries now face significant cost increases. Specifically, Canada, the United States' second-largest trading partner, faces a 35% tariff increase. Meanwhile, India faces a 25% increase, Taiwanese exports will be subject to a 20% tariff, South African products face a 30% tariff, and Swiss goods face a 39% tariff. Pepperstone market strategist Michael Brown said he remains bullish on gold, citing global trade uncertainty as a key factor driving its value as a monetary asset. He said: "The diversification of reserves away from the US dollar and into gold, particularly in emerging markets, will continue for the foreseeable future. Of course, potential safe-haven demand stemming from concerns about the state of the US economy will further support the bullish view. The upside levels to watch remain the $3,400 mark, followed by a high of around $3,445, and then a potential run towards the all-time high of $3,500. I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility of new highs in gold prices before the end of the year." Chris Vecchio, Head of Futures Strategy and FX at Tastylive, said he sees gold as a very beneficial global currency. "Tariffs mean that countries will trade less in US dollars, so I expect gold to continue to perform well as the world searches for an alternative monetary asset."
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Charlie_Senior_Analyst
What to trade if you can't trust jobs data? U.S. President Donald Trump has dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reportedly in response to jobs figures he disagreed with. This raises concerns about the integrity of government-reported economic data, especially ahead of the next key Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release on September 5. This upcoming report also includes the BLS’s annual revision, adjusting past job growth figures from April 2024 through March 2025. Goldman Sachs “estimate a downward revision on the order of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs—or a reduction of 45,000 to 80,000 jobs per month over the April 2024 to March 2025 period.” Given macro uncertainty and signs of distrust in U.S. economic data, the bid for gold may persist. Gold has rebounded sharply in recent sessions, breaking a short-term downtrend and climbing back above the 3,360 level. Price has now retraced more than 50.0% of the July 24–31 selloff. The pair may be Short-term bullish, if price holds above 3,310.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
3
Interest rate cuts intensify. Will gold break out?No noteworthy news events occurred this weekend. So, we'll have to wait and see how the market interprets gold's trajectory at the start of next week. From the 4-hour chart, the first thing we can confirm is that the 3363 level is unlikely to be the high point of this pullback. Because Friday's non-farm payroll report re-priced expectations for a rate cut, Friday's figures were merely a reaction from the US market. Furthermore, after hitting 3355, the price retreated slightly to 3340 before embarking on a second wave of gains. The Asian and European markets were closed at the time, so when Monday opens, the Asian and European markets will likely also interpret expectations for a rate cut and the impact of the non-farm payroll data on the market. Therefore, gold is likely to continue its upward trend next Monday. Currently, the first resistance level is around 3375-3380. It's uncertain whether this resistance can be overcome, but if it breaks through and stabilizes above 3380, it's likely to continue to move towards 3400. On the other hand, if 3375-3380 holds strong resistance, a retest of Friday's retracement lows of 3330-3340 is possible. Thus, avoid blindly shorting at the opening of next week. If the market retraces back to around 3330, then a long position is possible. If the market opens directly testing the upward pressure level, then do not chase the long position, as there is a possibility of a pullback at the pressure level.
FX:XAUUSD
by quaid_2
1
Is the uptrend complete? Will there be a pullback?On the last trading day of this week, gold prices soared, rising nearly $56, driven by the non-farm payroll data. The rally began at 3300 and peaked near 3356. The price has now retreated slightly, fluctuating around 3345. The current uptrend has repeatedly tested the resistance level near 3355 but has failed to break through. The RSI indicator hovered around 76.8, indicating a gradual flattening of the upward trend. The 3355 high is likely the end of this uptrend. As this is the last day of a major data week, Quaid believes the current uptrend is complete. Consider a light short position around 3350-3355. The current low has yet to be confirmed, and the pullback is likely to end around 3335. However, we cannot rule out the possibility that the price will remain within the upward channel with slight fluctuations on the last trading day of the week.
FX:XAUUSD
by quaid_2
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD August 1, 2025📊 ________________________________________ 🔍 Momentum Analysis: • D1 Timeframe: Momentum has reversed to the upside. Based on this signal, we expect a bullish trend to continue for the next 5 daily candles — likely until mid-next week. • H4 Timeframe: Momentum has also turned upward → This suggests that from now until the U.S. session, the price will likely continue to rise or consolidate with an upward bias. • H1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently turning down → We anticipate a short-term corrective move. We should wait for H1 to enter the oversold zone and give a bullish reversal signal before looking for long entries. ________________________________________ 🌀 Wave Structure Analysis: The current wave structure remains complex and lacks clear confirmation. Thus, the current wave labeling should be considered provisional. However, the wave count has not been invalidated, and D1 momentum supports a bullish outlook — so we continue to maintain our wave structure bias. Important Note: Wave (C) in red appears relatively short. This leaves open the possibility that the price may continue lower, targeting: • ⚠️ 3246 • ⚠️ 3200 → This scenario will be triggered if price breaks below 3268, especially given today's Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. ________________________________________ 📌 Two Possible Wave Scenarios: 1. Scenario 1: Black Waves 1 – 2 – 3 o Wave 1 (black) is complete. o We are now in Wave 2 (black) → Preparing for Wave 3. o Wave 3 tends to be strong, impulsive, and sharp with large candle bodies. o Target: 3351 2. Scenario 2: Black ABC Correction o The market is currently in Wave B (black). o Potential target for Wave C: 3328 ________________________________________ 🛡 Support Zones & Trade Strategy: • Support Zone 1: 3290 → A good area for potential buying, but we must wait for H1 to enter the oversold region and show a bullish reversal. • Support Zone 2: 3275 → Deeper buy zone if the price corrects further. ________________________________________ 💡 Trade Plan: 📍 Option 1 – Buy Limit: • Buy Zone: 3290 – 3289 • Stop Loss: 3280 • Take Profit 1: 3309 • Take Profit 2: 3328 • Take Profit 3: 3351 📍 Option 2 – Buy Limit: • Buy Zone: 3275 – 3273 • Stop Loss: 3265 • Take Profit 1: 3309 • Take Profit 2: 3328 • Take Profit 3: 3351 ________________________________________ 📎 Notes: • Experienced traders should wait for clear confirmation signals on H1 before entering trades. • New traders may consider using limit orders in the proposed buy zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
XAUUSD ANALYSYS 💸GOLD💸 Market Outlook: Bullish • Price broke out of a downtrend channel and is now forming higher highs and higher lows — clear sign of a trend reversal. • Current move is a pullback after a strong push up. ⸻ 📍 Key Zones: • Buy Zones and Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are marked. • These are areas where buyers may step in again. • Price is pulling back into these zones — potential long entry area. ⸻ 🎯 Target: • The top red line marks a liquidity zone or resistance. • Price is likely aiming to reach this area next. ⸻ 📈 Trade Setup Idea: • Buy on pullback to the FVG / Buy Zone. • Stop Loss: Below the Buy Zone. • Take Profit: At the previous high (resistance zone). ⸻ ⚠️ Risk to Watch: • If price breaks below the Buy Zone, bullish setup is invalidated — wait for new structure.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Brehayne_
Gold: Are the Bulls Still Behind It?Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Fundamental Analysis In 2025, gold has appreciated around 27% year-to-date, reaching a peak of 33.37% at the end of April, driven by structural factors. Its strength is based on global de-dollarization, central bank purchases, persistent inflation, and expectations of real rate cuts in the U.S. Since real interest rates peaked in July 2023, gold has risen 74%, reinforcing its role as a hedge against monetary policy. In addition, countries like China and Russia continue to accumulate gold as protection against the dollar and potential sanctions, supporting long-term structural demand. Diversifying with physical and financial gold (ETFs, mining stocks) is an increasingly common strategy in an environment of high debt, geopolitical tensions, and doubts about traditional safe-haven assets. A suggested allocation in a classic model portfolio could range between 10% and 25%, depending on the risk profile, in a typical equity-focused investment portfolio. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, gold has completed a long-term “cup with handle” formation that began in 2012, with an upside projection toward the $4,000 per ounce area. This pattern supports the continuation of its long-term upward structure. In the short term, however, the price is in a consolidation phase after reaching all-time highs of $3,499.94 at the end of April. Since then, the lateral movement suggests a pause within the primary trend. Technical indicators are showing mixed signals: RSI and MACD are pointing toward a possible oversold condition, suggesting a risk of short-term correction. Additionally, a bearish crossover between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages may reinforce selling pressure. If this corrective scenario unfolds, gold could retrace toward a key support zone around $3,140, a level that has served as the base of the current range and where renewed buying interest could emerge. Despite a possible pullback, the broader technical outlook remains constructive. Any correction would likely present tactical opportunities to re-enter the market—especially if expectations of real rate cuts or global geopolitical tensions persist. Gold Consolidates After Highs All in all, despite potential short-term pullbacks, gold continues to offer value as a tool for diversification, wealth protection, and a hedge against systemic risks. Its inclusion in portfolios remains relevant, even at current levels. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
ACTIVTRADES:GOLDLong
by ActivTrades
Technical Analysis of Gold Chart (XAU/USD) – 4-Hour TimeframeTechnical Analysis of Gold Chart (XAU/USD) – 4-Hour Timeframe Following the heavy selling pressure seen in recent days, the price of gold has now reached a zone that has repeatedly shown reactions in the past. This green-colored support area can currently play a decisive role in the market’s next move. Price Movement Outlook: Scenario 1 – Bullish Correction Move: If buyers manage to take control of the market in this zone, it is expected that gold will gradually pass through intermediate resistance levels and first enter the medium-term resistance area. If momentum is maintained, the price could then move toward higher highs. This move can be interpreted as a technical correction against the recent bearish wave and may attract short-term traders until reaching strong supply zones. Scenario 2 – Continuation of the Downtrend: Conversely, a confirmed break of this support with high volume and strong bearish candles could lead to a further decline in price toward previous lows. In this case, the blue-colored area at the lowest part of the chart would serve as the next demand zone. Key Point: The market is currently in a decision-making phase. Confirmation of reactions at this support area is extremely important in determining the market’s future direction. Therefore, entering the market prematurely without waiting for confirmation of price behavior could involve high risk.
FX:XAUUSD
by esmaeilesmaeilzade_fx
August 1, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 3323 – Resistance • 3309 – Resistance • 3300 – Psychological level • 3295 – Resistance • 3283 – Key support • 3268 – Short-term support • 3260 – Support • 3245 – Major support • 3233 – Support 📈 Intraday Strategy: • SELL if price breaks below 3283 → target 3280, then 3275, 3268, 3260 • BUY if price holds above 3286 → target 3289, then 3295, 3300, 3305 👉 If you find this helpful or traded using this plan, a like would mean a lot and keep me motivated. Thanks for the support! Disclaimer: This is my personal view, not financial advice. Always use proper risk control.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
XAUUSD-4HXAU/USD – 4H Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD) is currently testing the upper boundary of a descending channel on the 4-hour chart. The overall trend remains bearish, and this resistance zone may act as a potential reversal point. If price fails to break above the channel resistance, a downward move toward the lower boundary is likely. 🔹 Trend: Bearish 🔹 Entry Zone: Near channel resistance 🎯 Target: 3250 🛑 Stop-Loss: 3221 Traders should watch closely for bearish price action signals at the top of the channel. A confirmed rejection could offer a shorting opportunity.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ahmadreza_re2
Report - 31 jully, 2025Summary Initial optimism following the historic US–EU trade agreement has swiftly eroded as France and Germany openly criticized the deal, warning it undermines EU sovereignty and economic stability. The euro fell sharply, carmakers led equity declines, and political fractures within the bloc widened. While the deal averted a full-blown trade war, concerns over inflation, competitiveness, and regulatory submission have shifted sentiment. The perception of European capitulation under pressure from Trump has reignited transatlantic tensions and injected fresh volatility into global markets. This retreat in EU support underscores the precarious nature of transatlantic cooperation under Trump’s economic nationalism. Meanwhile, signs of tech decoupling, tariff expansion beyond the EU, and deferred retaliation signal a fractured global trade order. European fiscal policy, particularly Germany’s defense-driven deficit expansion, is now under heightened scrutiny amid market volatility and FX pressure. Market Reactions Equity markets across the EU opened higher on tariff relief expectations but reversed course as Germany’s Chancellor Merz and France’s Prime Minister Bayrou denounced the deal. The DAX fell 1.1%, CAC 40 slipped 0.4%, and eurozone auto stocks plunged 1.8%. The euro lost over 1% against the dollar in its second-largest daily drop this year, reflecting concern over structural imbalance and political subordination. In contrast, semiconductor stocks surged, with ASML and BE Semiconductor rising over 4% as the tech sector escaped tariffs. Wall Street remained relatively stable, buoyed by optimism around defense, energy, and tech sectors gaining from the deal. The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.9%, reflecting both euro weakness and expectations that inflationary tariffs could keep Fed rates elevated. Fiscal and Political Implications The backlash from Berlin and Paris lays bare deep fractures within the EU regarding its posture toward Washington. Chancellor Merz’s warning of "considerable damage" and Bayrou’s reference to EU “submission” cast doubt on Ursula von der Leyen’s negotiation strategy. The deal’s imposition of a 15% baseline tariff—triple the pre-deal weighted average—exposes Europe to substantial cost increases without achieving reciprocal liberalization. Internally, the European Commission is accused of caving to U.S. pressure while undermining its own credibility. Documents and diplomatic leaks suggest that more aggressive retaliatory planning was watered down due to fears of a broader security rupture, particularly concerning NATO and U.S. arms support to Ukraine. This reinforces the EU’s strategic dependency, limiting its ability to resist U.S. economic coercion. Germany’s effort to shield its auto industry via offset schemes largely failed, while Brussels’ “trade bazooka” was shelved in favor of “strategic patience.” This perceived capitulation may embolden further unilateral action from the U.S., especially as Trump eyes tariffs on pharmaceuticals and rest-of-world imports up to 20%. Strategic Forecasts Europe's short-term economic outlook has darkened. The tariff burden—especially on high-margin exporters like German autos—raises inflation risks while lowering competitiveness. Political backlash could destabilize Commission leadership and provoke calls for more aggressive economic sovereignty. Expect further euro weakness, sectoral underperformance in autos and industrials, and possibly downgrades to GDP forecasts across the eurozone. On the U.S. side, Trump’s success with transatlantic leverage may embolden him to expand tariff threats to Asia and Latin America. The Fed will likely face a more inflationary policy environment, with fiscal and protectionist stimulus prolonging higher rate expectations. Simultaneously, China's relief from U.S. tech export freezes—designed to secure a Xi-Trump summit—adds complexity to the strategic tech rivalry. The suspension of chip export controls could spur near-term capital inflows to Chinese AI firms while igniting concern in U.S. defense circles. Risks and Opportunities Risks Breakdown in EU cohesion and trust in Commission leadership Expansion of U.S. tariffs to rest of world (ROW), escalating global trade friction Retaliation by China if U.S. chip diplomacy reverses Drag on European industrial profits and inflation-driven ECB recalibration Fed rate path upwardly skewed due to structural tariff-driven inflation Opportunities U.S. defense and energy sectors benefit from guaranteed EU purchases Semiconductors remain shielded, with valuation support in ASML, TSMC, Nvidia Dollar strength provides tactical trades in EURUSD, GBPUSD Select EM exporters (e.g. Brazil) benefit from re-diversified trade flows AI hardware and chip infrastructure (Samsung–Tesla deal) gains strategic momentum Key Asset Impact – Outlook XAUUSD (Gold): Gold holding firm around $3,340. With fresh political discord and rising protectionist inflation, gold remains a hedge. If Fed signals rate hold, expect a push to $3,400. Bias: Bullish S&P 500: Resilient, driven by defense, energy, and AI. But prolonged strong dollar and tariff-induced input cost pressures are risk factors. Bias: Moderately Bullish Dow Jones: Benefiting from defense and dividend-heavy mix, but under pressure from industrial drag. Bias: Neutral to Bullish DXY (US Dollar Index): Strengthening on euro weakness and policy divergence. However, long-term Fed autonomy concerns and political volatility could reverse trend. Bias: Bullish short-term, Neutral longer-term USDJPY: Little movement today. BoJ still cautious, yen capped unless Fed shifts dovish or global risk-off resumes. Bias: Range-bound EURUSD: Second-largest single-day drop YTD. Political backlash and export headwinds limit upside. Bias: Bearish Crude Oil (WTI): Flat to slightly higher, supported by EU commitment to U.S. energy, but demand data remains soft. Bias: Neutral Stoxx Autos: Heavy selloff (-1.8%) despite tariff reduction, reflecting margin pressure. Bias: Bearish ASML / BE Semiconductor: Relief rally on tariff exclusion. Long-term tailwinds from open AI infrastructure and Samsung–Tesla chip deal. Bias: Bullish Following the signing of a landmark trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union, immediate relief in financial markets has quickly given way to political and economic backlash within the EU. France and Germany, two of the bloc’s largest economies, have openly criticized the agreement, warning it will damage their industrial competitiveness and economic sovereignty. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz labeled the 15% blanket tariff “damaging” for both Europe and the United States, while French Prime Minister François Bayrou called it a “dark day” for EU autonomy. Despite avoiding a full-blown transatlantic trade war, the nature of the deal — seen by critics as submission under U.S. pressure — has sharply divided European leaders and exposed internal fractures in Brussels' negotiation strategy. Market reactions reflect this shift in sentiment. The euro recorded its second-largest single-day drop this year, falling 1.1% against the dollar as investor confidence in European political resolve weakened. Equity markets, particularly in Germany and France, reversed earlier gains. The DAX fell 1.1%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.4%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Auto Index declined by 1.8%, led by steep losses in Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. While semiconductor stocks bucked the trend — with ASML and BE Semiconductor rising over 4% after escaping tariffs — the overall message was one of fading optimism and growing policy disarray. On the U.S. side, the dollar strengthened, aided by expectations that tariff-driven inflation will keep Federal Reserve interest rates elevated. President Trump, emboldened by what many perceive as a successful economic power play, has signaled that he may impose tariffs of up to 20% on countries outside the deal framework — effectively targeting much of the global economy. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and biotechnology appear to be next in line, with chip exports already under scrutiny. This expands the sphere of tariff risk, placing emerging markets and global exporters on high alert. If implemented, these levies could spark renewed capital flows into U.S. assets and exert further downward pressure on global growth forecasts. The European Union’s failure to mount a credible retaliatory response has amplified the perception of its weakened position. Brussels initially suspended its response to U.S. tariffs in April and internal discord among member states diluted the EU’s “trade bazooka.” While a €93 billion retaliatory package was drafted, the effective threat fell to only €9 billion of actionable tariffs after exemptions were carved out for politically sensitive sectors like Irish whiskey and Italian beef. Critics argue that this strategic retreat undermined the bloc’s negotiating leverage. Strategic dependence on U.S. security guarantees — particularly for eastern and northern EU states — contributed to Brussels' caution, as did fears that escalation could prompt Washington to cut off military aid to Ukraine or withdraw from NATO commitments. Simultaneously, the U.S. has quietly frozen certain export restrictions on China to facilitate a potential trade accord with Beijing and secure a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. The move, which includes halting a ban on Nvidia’s H20 chip, has drawn criticism from over 20 U.S. national security officials who warn that the chip could enhance China's military and surveillance capabilities. Despite these concerns, the Commerce Department has been instructed to avoid further provocative actions for now. This provides a temporary tailwind for Chinese tech equities and hardware manufacturers, though the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing remains unresolved. In the private markets, a notable structural shift is underway. Private equity investors are increasingly opting to cash out of continuation vehicles — special funds used to extend ownership of portfolio companies — rather than roll over their stakes. Liquidity has become paramount as traditional exits via IPOs and trade sales remain scarce. Data from Houlihan Lokey shows that over 85% of investors chose to exit such vehicles in 2025, up from 75% last year. This underscores broader risk aversion and signals a waning appetite for illiquidity and long-duration exposure in uncertain macro conditions. Overall, the global strategic landscape is growing more fragmented. Europe is politically divided and economically exposed. The U.S. is leveraging its market dominance to enforce strategic compliance, while China is benefiting from a temporary softening in U.S. export policy. Capital is flowing toward liquidity, defensives, and tech infrastructure — and away from uncertainty and regulatory entanglement. Investors should remain attuned to central bank reactions, retaliatory threats, and sudden shifts in geopolitical posture over the coming weeks.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku