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GOLD trade ideas

GOLD BULLISH OUTLOOK📊 Gold Market Analysis – Bullish Outlook Developing In yesterday’s market, we observed gold take out a key lower liquidity in the 3370s range. This liquidity sweep typically indicates the clearing of weak hands and positions the market for a potential reversal or continuation of a larger trend. Following this move, gold has begun to establish a bullish trend stance, as the market structure shows signs of strength and renewed buying interest. The rejection of the 3370s level suggests that buyers are stepping in aggressively, potentially setting a solid foundation for an upward move. From a technical perspective, this positions gold for a potential climb toward the 3440s, which serves as a short- to mid-term target. If the bullish momentum continues to build — particularly if it’s supported by favorable macroeconomic data or weakening in the U.S. dollar — we could see price action surge above the 3440s, opening up further upside potential. This developing bullish scenario has been highlighted and discussed in the analysis. Traders and investors should monitor key support and resistance levels closely, as well as any macro developments that could reinforce or challenge this upward trajectory.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by elite_trader_1-
6.17 Gold Trend after the Big Drop6.17 Gold Trend after the Big Drop Yesterday, gold continued to fall after rising, and the bulls lacked effective momentum to fight back. During the US trading session, the geopolitical risk aversion sentiment temporarily eased and accelerated the break, making it more difficult to rise in the short term. In addition to the current decline in oil prices and gold prices, the conflict between Iran and Israel may end with one side kneeling down and surrendering. If this happens, the current gold price will continue to fall. The current technical side shows that the hourly moving average tends to flatten, and yesterday's low of 3383 has become a key support level. The opening rebound touched the 3403 line and then fell under pressure again, proving that this area is a range of fluctuations between long and short watersheds. If it cannot stand above 3400 before the opening of the US market, the bears will rely on the moving average to launch a new round of offensives, with the lower targets of 3375 and 3360. If there is no good news at present, it is recommended to rebound high short strategy. Thank you for your attention, I hope my analysis can help you.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EmilyShared256111
Fed Rate Decision May Trigger a Decline in Gold PricesDespite heightened tensions in the Middle East providing safe-haven support, gold failed to break through the 3450–3455 resistance zone today and instead pulled back to the 3400–3386 support area. This decline was mainly driven by two factors: Iran expressed willingness to resume nuclear talks, easing geopolitical tensions and weakening safe-haven demand. Growing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this week strengthened the DXY, reducing gold's appeal. That said, inflation concerns persist, offering medium-term support to gold. On the technical front, the 3378–3340 consolidation zone may serve as secondary support, while stronger trend support lies in the 3310–3289 range—a level that may only be tested under extreme bearish conditions. For now, the primary support to watch is 3386–3373, with short-term rebound resistance around 3400–3420. Trading Suggestion: Ahead of the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow, consider buying on dips, as today’s decline may lead to a technical rebound. Then reassess the market’s response to key support and resistance levels to determine further action.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Arthur3017
Gold rebound continues to be short! (Exclusive trend analysis)Although gold has fallen below 3400, and the short-term direction has changed, the general direction remains unchanged and it is still bullish. In the future, we still have the opportunity to look at the high point of 3500, but we have to wait for the bottom to stabilize before we can buy the bottom. When there is an opportunity to go long later, Charlie will tell you that in today's market, we can only follow the trend. We will do whatever the market does. We will go short first in the rebound in the next two days! FOREXCOM:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Analyst
GOLD (XAUUSD) SELL SETUP – Triple Top Rejection Confirmed? Gold is currently testing a strong supply zone near the $3,450 resistance area for the third time. Each test has been followed by sharp rejections, forming a potential triple top pattern, which is a classic bearish reversal signal. 🔵 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $3,450 – Strong supply zone (highlighted blue zone) Mid Support: $3,032 – Previous structure support & demand Major Demand: $2,647 – Long-term demand zone (orange) 🔻 Bearish Signals: Price failed to break above the $3,450 supply zone Strong bearish wick and rejection candle Lower highs on RSI/MACD (not shown but worth noting) 📌 Potential Trade Idea: Entry: Near $3,400–$3,450 zone Target 1: $3,032 (mid-term support) Target 2: $2,647 (long-term demand) SL: Above $3,470 (clear invalidation) 🗓️ As we move toward July, a break below $3,300 could trigger momentum selling down to $3,000 and even $2,647. 💬 What’s your bias on gold this week? Are we heading for a major correction or another bounce? #Gold #XAUUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #TripleTop #BearishSetup #SmartMoney #PriceAction #TradingView #LuxAlgo #SwingTrade #Commodities
FX:XAUUSDShort
by FrankFx14
Gold Reclaims Bullish Zone—Perfect Time for a Swing EntryGold has once again reclaimed bullish momentum after breaking through the key support zone around $3,412, previously a stubborn ceiling that had acted as resistance multiple times throughout late May and early June. The break above this level—validated by a decisive green Supertrend flip—indicates a short-term trend reversal in favor of buyers. After a brief consolidation phase, XAUUSD formed a solid breakout candle, confirming upward momentum. The current price action sits comfortably above the Supertrend line, which is now acting as dynamic support, while volume has picked up notably during the move up—an important confirmation of institutional interest and breakout strength. Trade Setup Breakdown • Entry: Above the $3,412 breakout area (now acting as support) • Stop Loss: Below the key support zone, ideally near $3,373–$3,375 to allow for wick re-tests and avoid premature exits • Target/TP: Resistance zone marked near $3,484–$3,500, which aligns with a prior consolidation ceiling from late April and early May. This target offers a risk-reward ratio of approx. 2.3:1, which is favorable for a swing position. • Re-entry Opportunity: If gold retraces back to the $3,373–$3,383 zone (support cluster), it would provide a high-probability re-entry while keeping the same TP of $3,500. Why the Bias Is Bullish 1. Structure Break & Supertrend Flip The key breakout above previous resistance was clean and confirmed by the Supertrend flip to green, a historically reliable short-term bullish signal. 2. Volume Confirmation Volume spikes on the breakout candles confirm real buying pressure—not just a false breakout or low-liquidity movement. 3. Support Retest Potential The $3,412–$3,383 zone now forms a strong demand area where buyers are likely to defend their positions if price pulls back. This zone also aligns with historical congestion from earlier price action. 4. Macro Context (Not in chart but relevant) Ongoing economic uncertainty, rising global tensions, and interest rate speculation continue to boost gold's safe-haven appeal. Traders are increasingly rotating into gold during periods of macro volatility. Outlook Gold is likely to continue climbing toward the $3,500 mark unless it closes below $3,373 on high volume. Bulls appear to be in control, and even a minor pullback could serve as a buying opportunity. As long as the price remains above the flipped Supertrend and $3,373 support, the bullish case remains intact.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SupertradeOfficial
XAU/USD 16 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Following previous bullish iBOS and subsequent printing of bearish CHoCH, price did not pullback to either M15 supply zone, or discount of internal 50% EQ, therefore, I will not mark current iBOS but will mark it in red. The reason I am not classifying this as an iBOS is, due to relative price action, the internal range would be too narrow. The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price. As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish. Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375. Note: Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment. Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAU/USD 16-20 June 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure -> Bullish. Internal Structure -> Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025. In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher-highs in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a shortened blue dotted horizontal line. The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH. Note: It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend. Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and potential repricing of Gold. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Swing -> Bullish. Internal -> Bullish. Analysis and Bias remains the same as Analysis dated 11 May 2025. Since my last weekly analysis price has finally printed a bearish CHoCH. This is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Price should now technically trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s continued dovish stance, coupled with escalating geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to sustain elevated market volatility, influencing both intraday and broader trend developments. Additionally, price action may be further shaped by U.S. policy decisions, including measures enacted under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic policymaking could introduce further uncertainty, contributing to the ongoing repricing dynamics within the gold market. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025 Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday. Price is now trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200. Note: The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively. Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISGold (XAUUSD) continues to maintain strong bullish momentum, with current price action sitting around 3,430. We have been holding a bullish outlook since the key accumulation zone between 3,150 and 3,200. Price has consistently formed higher highs and higher lows, and recent consolidation has broken out with conviction. Based on technical structure, my immediate upside target is 3,500, where I expect price to react before potentially extending even higher depending on upcoming macro drivers. Fundamentally, gold is being fueled by a combination of sticky inflation data and a cautious Fed stance. Even though the FOMC held rates steady in June, market expectations are shifting towards policy easing later in the year due to softening labor data and a cooling economic outlook. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and continued central bank gold buying remain strong tailwinds for the metal. The U.S. dollar index has shown minor weakness post-CPI, offering further support to gold bulls. Technically, the daily chart shows a clean bullish flag breakout that aligns with the trendline support and impulsive wave structure. Price broke above 3,400 with strong volume and minimal resistance, indicating clear bullish dominance. As long as price holds above the 3,380–3,400 zone, continuation toward 3,500 remains highly probable. There is also confluence from previous structure highs and minor Fibonacci extension levels around that mark. Overall, I remain confidently long on XAUUSD. I’ve been tracking this bullish cycle since the 3,150–3,200 region and continue to favor upside moves backed by macroeconomic and technical alignment. I’ll be watching key reaction zones near 3,500 for potential profit-taking, while holding swing positions with dynamic risk management in place.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
Gold Surges Amid Middle East TensionsGold surged more than 1% to exceed $3,440, approaching record levels amid a sharp rise in safe-haven demand. The gains came after Israel's strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, fueling concerns over a wider regional conflict. Uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs added to market jitters. Additionally, softer US inflation data increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Resistance is seen at $3,430, while support holds at $3,350.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by ChartMage
6/12 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning, everyone! Gold rebounded after dipping to around $3320 yesterday, following a pullback from our previously defined sell zone (3358–3373). Early today, price broke above 3360, reaching a high of 3373, exactly within the resistance zone we expected. The initial rejection from this level aligns well with our plan. 📈 Technical Analysis: Watch closely whether 3373 can be broken with strong volume. If so, the next key resistance lies around 3385. However, if price reaches this level without first testing the 3352–3346 support, a rejection is likely. In such case, 3385 may serve as a temporary top and a potential short entry point. 🧭 Trend Structure: On the 4H timeframe, the bullish momentum remains intact. The last two candles suggest strong buying pressure. If today's fundamentals are supportive, a test of 3400 or higher is possible. On the 1D chart, the market is still in a technical correction phase. The bounce near 3300 was supported by the long-term trendline. However, if price drops back below 3340 and stays there, a trend reversal becomes more likely. Focus on the 3314–3296 support zone. If that breaks, a deeper drop is likely, possibly $100 or more, pushing price toward 3200–3190. The decline may unfold as a slow grind or sharp breakdown. 📊 Fundamental Watch: Today’s Initial Jobless Claims data could have greater-than-usual impact due to the recent CPI release. The Federal Reserve's Quarterly Financial Accounts Report is also due today and may affect broader market sentiment. 📌 Today’s Trading Recommendations: ✅ Sell Zone: 3385–3403 ✅ Buy Zone: 3331–3321 🔄 Intraday Scalping Levels: 3376 / 3358 / 3346 / 3334
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
Gold is rising, will there be a new intraday high?Yesterday, gold closed with an engulfing positive line, and the closing line stood above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. From the analysis of gold in 1 hour, the current price is still in a fluctuating upward channel. Based on this technical pattern feature, if the subsequent economic data is positive and pushes the gold price to further strengthen, it may form a trading opportunity for shorting at a staged high. Although the gold price showed a rapid upward trend after the data was released, there has been obvious resistance in the historical trading concentration range of 3400-3410. The current bullish momentum has no technical conditions to break through this position, and the technical correction after the price surge is in line with the price behavior logic. The current price has reached a high of around 3398. After today's rise, there is not much room for upward movement; since the market is rising in a volatile manner this week, it is not suitable to chase the rise directly. Although the 4-hour Bollinger Band opening continues to diverge upward and the moving average is arranged in a bullish pattern, the upward momentum is slightly insufficient and may be under pressure to move downward near 3410. I suggest that all traders short at high levels. Operation strategy: Short around 3410, stop loss at 3420, profit range 3360-3355. If it breaks through 3355, it may hit the intraday low below 3340.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
Will gold definitely rise if the news is good? 📊Technical aspects 1. The daily line pattern continues to close. The previous three days relied on the lifeline to lift the space. Now the lifeline position is in the 3317 area, which is close to the early morning low point 3319 and becomes the support range The upper rail resistance position 3405 coincides with the previous high point 3403.5 area Comprehensive support 3317-3319, resistance 3403-3405 2. The four-hour surge of more than 50 US dollars has pulled the pattern upward, but the European session just fell sharply by 37 US dollars, and the market has been pulled back to the exit again. Pay attention to the lifeline position and the double line superposition at 3335-3330, which also coincides with the lower track of the small channel 3330-3325 area, and together become the nearest support area The upper track overlaps with the upper track of the small channel 3370 area Comprehensive support 3320-3330, resistance 3370-3380 Currently, under multiple favorable factors, gold has repeatedly failed to break the previous high (3403). From the technical pattern, it can be seen that the upper resistance line is still strong. On the contrary, the sharp drop just echoes the weakness of the bulls. Gold is still dominated by shorts. Finally, let me talk about the current international situation that is favorable to gold. If you simply trade based on news, I don’t think everyone will become a millionaire by reading the news. 💰 Strategy Package Short Position：3370-3385
TVC:GOLDShort
by TheodoreSilas
June 18, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary: Gold is currently ranging between 3370–3406. Today’s focus is on trading the range until a breakout occurs. Watch for confirmation near edges of the zone. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 3420 – Resistance • 3406 – Range top • 3400 – Psychological level • 3392 – Resistance • 3380 – Support • 3370 – Range bottom • 3365 – Intraday key support 📉 Macro Strategy: SELL if price breaks below 3380 → watch 3375, then 3370, 3365, 3358 BUY if price holds above 3386 → watch 3392, then 3395, 3400, 3406 👉 If you found this useful and want to learn how I manage entries and stop-losses, drop a like — I’ll prepare a post on this soon. Disclaimer: This is my personal view, not financial advice. Always manage risk responsibly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
Time for the Hammer?” – When Price Breaks, Then Breathes🧠 What Just Happened? The chart opens with a classic market behavior: Price runs above recent highs — triggering a wave of emotional entries and stop hunts. Right after, it drops sharply, hinting that something deeper is at play. This sequence reflects how markets often: Bait retail traders with a breakout Break structure suddenly Then pull back — not for mercy, but to reload 🔍 Why This Pullback Matters After the aggressive drop, price didn't just fall aimlessly. It paused and returned to a zone of imbalance , a gap where liquidity is still waiting. That retrace isn’t weakness — it’s intent. This kind of setup teaches a key concept: “The real move comes after the aggressive move — not before.” 📚 A Lesson in Patience Most traders enter on the breakout (the sweep) Smart traders enter on the pullback into value Pros wait for the reaction + structure shift before doing anything This isn’t about being first. It’s about being right when it matters. 🧭 Final Thought The hammer doesn't fall until the trap is fully set. Study these moves. Study the emotion behind the candles. That's where edge lives. 💬 Drop your thoughts — did you catch this behavior on Gold today? 🔁 Follow for more thought-driven, story-based chart breakdowns.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Crusade1Jay
5
How to Calculate Forex Lot Size on TradingView. Free Calculator Do you know that TradingView has a built-in Forex position size calculator? It is completely free, it is simple to use, and it does not require a paid subscription to use it. In this article, I will teach you how to calculate a lot size for your trades on TradingView easily in 3 simple steps. Step 1 - Setting Up the Calculator First, open a price chart on TradingView and find a "Trading Panel" button in the bottom of the window. Click "Maximize Panel" afterward. In the list of brokers, select " TradingView Paper Trading" and click "Connect". Paper Trading is built in demo trading account on TradingView. It does not require KYC or any other verification. Choose "Account" list box and tap "Create Account" . Then fill all the inputs with exactly the same parameters as your real trading account has. Type in your exact account size, leverage and commission rate. Then click "Create". TradingView position size calculator is ready to use. Step 2 - Find the Trading Opportunity Find a trading setup to trade. Make sure that you know the exact entry level and stop loss. Imagine that you want to buy EURUSD from 1.0899 price level with 1.08846 stop loss level. Step 3 - Measure a Proper Lot Size Right-click on a price chart and choose "Trade" and in the appeared menu select "Create New Order". Fill the following fields: "Price" - your entry level, "% risk" - your desired risk per trade in %, "Stop Loss price" - your stop loss price level. Your lot size will be based on the calculated units . In forex trading 1 standard lot equals 100000 units. The only thing that you should do is to take the exact units number and divide it by 100000. In our case we have 704225 units. 704225 / 100000 = 7,04 lot. That will be your lot size for buying EURUSD with 1% risk for 100000 trading account. If you apply TradingView for market analysis and charting and your trading terminal does not have a lot size calculator, this method will be the quickest and the easiest to apply for measuring the position size. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Report – June 12, 2025As of today, markets are navigating a cautious and complex macro landscape driven by sticky inflation, mixed economic momentum, and upcoming supply events in the U.S. Treasury market. At the center of market focus is the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), which surprised to the upside. The headline PPI YoY came in at 2.6%, above the prior month’s 2.4%, while the month-over-month figure rebounded to +0.2%, recovering from -0.5% in April. Although Core PPI YoY held flat at 3.1%, the level remains elevated. These numbers reinforce the perception that inflationary pressures remain embedded at the producer level, limiting the Federal Reserve’s flexibility to ease policy in the near term. Simultaneously, the U.S. labor market continues to show resilience. Initial Jobless Claims printed at 242,000, slightly better than the consensus estimate of 247,000. The four-week average stabilized at 235,000, and Continuing Claims remained firm at 1.904 million. This combination of firm labor and sticky inflation supports a “higher-for-longer” rates environment, with no immediate pressure on the Fed to pivot dovish. These data points, taken together, imply that the fixed income and equity markets are still subject to repricing risk, especially if the Fed maintains its hawkish rhetoric or if real yields begin to trend higher again. In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields moved slightly lower across the curve, with the 2Y yield at 3.958% (-0.6bp), the 10Y at 4.416% (-1.0bp), and the 30Y at 4.905% (-1.4bp). The curve remains inverted, although the steepness has moderated somewhat, indicating a cautious recalibration of forward rate expectations. Markets are closely watching today’s 30-year Treasury bond auction, scheduled for later in the session. A weak result — defined as a tail greater than 1.5bps — could lead to a renewed sell-off in long-duration Treasuries and reinforce the bear trend in TLT. Looking internationally, Japan’s 10Y yield remains stable at 1.454%, suggesting no immediate pressure from the BoJ to shift policy. In the UK, the 10Y Gilt yield stands at 4.526%, continuing to reflect persistent inflation risk. German 10Y Bunds yield between 2.41–2.45%, slightly firmer, maintaining a neutral to moderately hawkish stance ahead of upcoming ECB communications. Collectively, these yield levels reflect a global market pricing in differentiated inflation risks and rate divergence. In fixed income ETFs, we see short-duration U.S. Treasury instruments leading, with SHY (1–3Y) up +0.13%, while TLT (20Y+) gained +0.30%, showing tentative stabilization ahead of the auction. Investment-grade credit, as tracked by LQD, rose +0.34%, benefiting from risk-off hedging and carry trades. However, high-yield (HYG) was flat at -0.02%, and convertibles (CWB) edged lower at -0.06%, both signaling a decline in speculative appetite. Internationally, emerging market debt (EMB +0.3%) and global Treasuries (IGOV +0.29%) are firming as the USD softens modestly. In the equity space, today’s session is showing a mild risk-off tilt. The S&P 500 trades at 6,022 (-0.3%), holding just above key support at 5,975. The Dow Jones is flat at 42,865, with underlying breadth weakening. The Nasdaq 100 fell -0.4% to 21,860, and Russell 2000 declined -0.4% to 2,148, continuing its underperformance. The VIX has risen to 17.27 (+1.9%), closing in on the psychological stress level of 18.5. Sector rotation aligns with a defensive narrative. Energy is leading, up +1.4% (with oil rallying sharply), followed by Utilities (+0.1%) and Health Care (+0.1%), both classic low-volatility, defensive groups. Conversely, Technology (-0.2%) and Real Estate (-0.5%) are underperforming, as the market de-risks rate-sensitive sectors. Financials (-0.1%) remain cautious due to yield curve pressure and auction-related uncertainty. From a style and factor perspective, momentum continues to lead with +0.72% relative outperformance versus SPY, followed by high dividend (+0.39%) and value (+0.16%). Meanwhile, growth stocks are soft (-0.04%), and small caps are lagging further (-0.32%), signaling a clear rotation away from riskier, high-beta equity exposure. In currencies, the U.S. dollar is slightly weaker today. USD/JPY trades at 143.99 (-0.4%), showing softness despite higher PPI, likely due to short-term positioning. EUR/USD has strengthened to 1.1516 (+0.2%), and GBP/USD is stable at 1.3547. Crypto remains soft with BTC/USD down 1.2% to $107,669, confirming that risk appetite remains limited. The commodity complex is stronger. Gold is up $18.20 to $3,371.13, reflecting safe-haven buying as real yields pause. Crude oil (WTI) has rallied $2.90 to $67.88, and Brent is at $69.51, with supply dynamics and macro demand recovery pushing prices higher. Natural gas remains flat at $3.51. These moves have boosted commodity-sensitive equities in the emerging market space. For example, Brazil (EWZ) is up 1.8%, South Korea (EWY) up 1.3%, and India (EPI) +0.3%, while developed markets (EFA) are flat to down (-0.2%). Tactically, the SPX remains neutral to bearish. Holding above 5,975 preserves structure, but a breakdown below this level — especially if triggered by a hot auction or inflation shock — could drive further downside. The Dow remains in a bearish posture below 43,000, with a downside trigger at 42,300. Gold remains in a bullish technical setup with breakout potential above $2,350 and support at $2,325–2,330. USD/JPY is a tactical long above 143.80, aiming for 144.60, conditional on yields rising. TLT remains weak, and a close below 86.50 following the auction would confirm downside continuation. WTI oil is long-biased above 67, targeting $69.80 and higher if USD continues to weaken. Key macro risk triggers include: a PPI print above 2.8% or Core PPI above 3.2%, which would reinforce Fed hawkishness; a long bond auction tail greater than 1.5bps, which would signal poor demand and push long yields higher; a VIX breakout above 18.5, which would signal a broader risk-off episode; and a gold breakout above $2,350, which would confirm macro hedge acceleration. Asset Action Gold Long bias Oil Long setup SPX Hedged Dow Bearish lean USD/JPY Buy dips > 143.80 TLT Bear or avoid
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
CPI, US inflation, gold price waiting to decrease⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold (XAU/USD) drew fresh bids in Wednesday’s Asian trading, reclaiming the $3,340 level and edging back toward this week’s high. A U.S. federal appeals court decision allowing President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs to remain in force—for now—added a fresh layer of trade uncertainty and stoked safe-haven demand. Heightened geopolitical tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September further bolstered the non-yielding metal. Even so, optimism surrounding ongoing U.S.–China talks has lifted broader risk sentiment, while a mildly stronger U.S. Dollar is helping keep gold’s upside in check. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price recovered, buying power increased gradually in Asian session, approaching resistance zone 3348 ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3373- 3375 SL 3380 TP1: $3360 TP2: $3350 TP3: $3340 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3278- $3280 SL $3273 TP1: $3290 TP2: $3300 TP3: $3314 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable sell order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
7