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Bearish Outlook and Price Structure for XAUUSDHi there, A bearish outlook for gold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe, with a bias toward the 3,100 area, targeting the highlighted demand zones. Price-Movement Structure We observe a three-wave corrective pattern that appears complete at the 3,494.98 high. Key observations: - **Wave (A)** : Initial correction from the major low. - **Wave (B)** : Complex sideways consolidation. - **Wave (C)** : Extension to new highs, creating liquidity. The current price action suggests potential institutional distribution at the highs. I am expecting a drop to approximately 3,349.94. However, fundamentals such as interest rates, dollar strength, and geopolitical risks remain key drivers of bullish optimism. Happy Trading, K. Not trading advice
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDShort
by Khiwe
Price may pull back into the support zone.Key Elements of the Chart: Instrument: Gold (XAU) vs. US Dollar (USD) Timeframe: 1-hour (1h) Current Price: Approximately $3,389.855 Time of Screenshot: 3:40 AM on June 18, 2025 (UTC+3) Chart Structure and Notations: Price Zones Highlighted: Support Zone: Around $3,370 – $3,380 Target/Resistance Zone: Around $3,450 – $3,460 Price Labels: HH: Higher High HL: Higher Low These indicate an uptrend structure, with buyers in control. White Arrows: Indicate a potential bullish scenario: Price may pull back into the support zone. Then bounce and continue upward toward the $3,450 – $3,460 resistance area. A “V-shaped recovery” is suggested. Descending Wedge Breakout: There’s a small descending wedge pattern within the current move, often interpreted as a bullish continuation pattern. Summary: The chart suggests a bullish bias for gold, projecting a possible retracement to support (~$3,375) followed by a rebound toward resistance (~$3,455). The higher highs and higher lows reinforce this upward trend possibility.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by King_Maker_FX
GOLD Gold (XAU/USD), DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Interest Rate Correlations As of June 2025, the relationships between these assets reflect a mix of traditional dynamics and evolving market forces. Below is a breakdown of their correlations and current data: 1. Gold (XAU/USD) and DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) Traditional Inverse Relationship: Gold is priced in USD, so a stronger dollar (higher DXY) typically makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and lowering prices. Conversely, a weaker dollar supports gold prices. Recent Anomaly (2023–2025): Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict, U.S.-China trade disputes) and central bank gold purchases (notably by China and Russia) have driven simultaneous strength in gold and the dollar. For example: Gold hit a record high of $3,500/oz in April 2025 despite DXY hovering near 98.43. Central banks bought 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2024, offsetting typical dollar-driven headwinds. The inverse correlation is reasserting as Fed rate-cut expectations grow, but geopolitical risks still support gold. 2. Gold and 10-Year Treasury Yield Inverse Correlation Typically: Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Inflation Hedge Exception: When real interest rates (nominal yield - inflation) are negative or low, gold rises despite higher yields. For example: 10-year yield: 4.450% (June 2025) U.S. inflation: 3.1% (May 2025) → real rate ~1.26%, reducing gold’s appeal but not eliminating it. Current Driver: Market focus on Fed policy (potential cuts) and inflation persistence keeps gold supported even with elevated yields. 3. DXY and 10-Year Treasury Yield Positive Correlation: Higher yields attract foreign capital into U.S. bonds, boosting dollar demand (DXY↑). Divergence Risks: Geopolitical tensions can decouple this relationship (e.g., safe-haven dollar demand outweighs yield changes). 4. Interest Rates and Gold Fed Policy Impact: Higher rates strengthen the dollar and dampen gold demand, while rate cuts weaken the dollar and boost gold. 2025 Outlook: Fed funds rate: 4.25–4.50% (held steady in June 2025). Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand for gold and the dollar persists. Real Interest Rates: Gold’s performance hinges on whether real rates stay subdued. Central Bank Demand: Record gold purchases (1,200+ tonnes in 2024) provide structural support. Conclusion While traditional correlations between gold, DXY, and yields persist, structural shifts (central bank buying, geopolitical fragmentation) and evolving Fed policy are redefining these relationships. Gold remains bullish in the medium term. WATCH MY GREEN BAR ZONE FOR BUY. #gold
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD - Selling opportunity on the horizonLooking at gold. We have a nice bearish continuation orderflow on the 15min TF. We have a nice potential inducement level of liquidity that we are more than likely to take before moving lower. This is a reduced risk entry due to where we are on the higher TF as we are pulling into a potential demand zone on the higher timeframe. ITS REALLY IMPORTANT to remember where we are in terms of structure and as we well know Gold doesn't tend to fall for to long as it remains bullish the majority of the time. so in regards to the HTF like I mentioned above we are still bullish so we are expecting a reversal for the longer term at some point in the near future so this could be a case of get what we can from the market and then look for our LTF orderflow to switch Bullish before then looking for them long entries
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BenFxLDN
XAUUSD: The beginning of range trading.Last week, I perfectly predicted the sharp rise in the market. At the beginning of this week, XAUUSD reached a high of 3451, which is the front pressure position. Due to the cooling of risk aversion in the international market, the New York market fell back to 3373 on Monday. XAUUSD did experience a typical "news-driven callback", and the analysis of technical and fundamental aspects is very critical. The following is a professional analysis and operation suggestions for the current market: Key points and technical structure 1. Pressure level: 3450 area - The previous high pressure is effective. This is the resonance resistance area of ​​the upper track of the daily level channel + Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, and the demand for long profit-taking is concentrated. 2. Support level: 3370-3380 area - Currently falling back to 3373, here is: - 50-day moving average dynamic support - 4-hour chart previous low level support platform - Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level - If the daily closing is above 3380, the technical structure is still a healthy correction. News-driven logic - Negative factors: Geopolitical situation and peace talks ➜ Risk aversion cools down ➜ Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset decreases. - Potential risks: The progress of peace talks may be repeated (such as the situation between Israel and Hamas and Russia and Ukraine). If the negotiations fail, safe-haven buying will return quickly. Need to keep an eye on news sources. Key signals for long-short game Long signal: long lower shadow candlestick appears in 3370 area, US dollar index (DXY) falls below 105.0 Short signal: rebound fails to break through 3400 integer mark, US bond yield rises above 4.3% Trading strategy suggestion - *Long order opportunity*: 3370-3380 light position to try long, stop loss 3355 (below the previous low), target 3400/3420. - *Short order opportunity*: 3415-3425 to arrange short orders in batches, stop loss 3440, target 3390. 2: Break down - Trigger condition: daily closing price <3365 The callback is upgraded to a deep correction - Target: 3340→ 3300 (psychological barrier + trend line support) - Operation: Chasing short needs to wait for a rebound to around 3400, stop loss 3420. 3: Restart the rise (probability 10%) - Trigger condition: Break through 3440 and stand firm for 1 hour - Possible driving force: Geopolitical conflict escalates/Fed rate cut expectations rise - Target: 3480 (historical high psychological resistance) → 3500 - Operation: After breaking through 3440, step back to 3425 to chase longs, stop loss 3405. Key event risks this week 1. Wednesday: US May CPI data (core CPI expected to be 3.5%) - If data > expectations: expectations of rate hikes rise → bearish for gold - If data < expectations: expectations of rate cuts come earlier → bullish for gold 2. Thursday: Fed interest rate decision + Powell press conference - Pay attention to the dot plot's hints on the number of rate cuts in 2024 (current market pricing is about 2 times) 3. Geopolitical headlines: progress in the Iran nuclear agreement, black swan risks in the French election Position management principles 1. Total risk exposure ≤ 5% of account net value 2. Reduce positions by 50% 3 hours before key events (avoid instantaneous fluctuations in CPI/FOMC) 3. Breakout strategy stop loss setting: 15 points outside the previous high/low to prevent burrs Conclusion: The effectiveness of the current 3373 support needs to be verified by Wednesday's CPI data. It is recommended that the London market operate in the 3370-3420 range and reduce positions before the US market to wait for data guidance. If you hold long positions, 3380 is the last line of defense; if you hold short positions, consider taking profits in batches above 3400. The medium-term bullish trend of gold has not been broken, but the risk aversion premium needs to be digested in the short term. If you need a more detailed entry point analysis or position management to solve your long-term loss problem, please feel free to tell me your trading cycle and risk preference, and I will provide you with a customized strategy.
TVC:GOLD
by Ludvig_Band_King
The key resistance zone shows obvious suppression.Spot gold continued its upward trend, with the intraday high reaching $3,398.55 per ounce, hitting a new weekly high. This rally was not only boosted by the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data but also closely related to the sharp escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Investors' expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have intensified, and the risk of potential conflicts in the Middle East are jointly driving a surge in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Affected by the moderate inflation data, the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.4% on Wednesday, and in the early Asian session on Thursday, it dropped to 98.42, a new one-week low, nearing the six-week low of 98.35 set last week. The weakening U.S. dollar provided additional support for gold prices, as gold is priced in U.S. dollars, and a depreciating dollar typically pushes up gold prices. Meanwhile, after falling due to tariff shocks in the spring, U.S. stocks have gradually recovered, but uncertainties about the details of trade agreements have kept market volatility alive. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has also created a favorable environment for rising gold prices. Focus on the resistance at the $3,400 level. Currently, the bullish momentum has not broken through this key resistance zone, and the technicals conform to the logic of "washing the market with a prior rise followed by a fall". In terms of operation, it is recommended to try shorting when resistance is encountered below $3,400. In the short term, observe the rebound momentum of gold prices. If it fails to effectively break through the $3,400 resistance area, seize the opportunity for shorting at highs. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term. Trading Strategy: sell@3400-3390 TP:3370-3360
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Ashbur
Long profit-taking,how to position gold before unemployment data📰 Impact of news: 1. Pay attention to the initial unemployment claims data 📈 Market analysis: After being pulled down, the gold price quickly rebounded to around 3385, and the RSI showed a V-shaped reversal. It is not recommended to chase the rise at present. In the short term, pay attention to the upper resistance area of 3385-3395. If the gold price effectively breaks through this resistance area, it is expected to touch the 3400-3410 line. On the contrary, it encounters resistance and pressure at the 3385-3395 line, and may retreat to the 3370-3360 line in the short term. 🏅 Trading strategies: SELL 3385-3395 TP 3370-3360 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell-2
Bulls are in control, and pullbacks are opportunities!Gold rose directly at the opening today due to risk aversion, reaching a high of around 3446.8. We successfully stopped profit twice when we went long. Subsequently, we also notified everyone to enter short positions at 3445 and exit with profit at 3425. Pay attention to the support situation at 3395-3408. Going long on pullbacks is still the main trend at present. From the current gold trend analysis, today's gold mid-line pulled up and broke through and stood above the 3400 mark to further continue its strength. The short-term support below is around 3310-3408, and the key support below is around the recent top and bottom conversion position of 3395-3405. The intraday pullback relies on this position to continue to be bullish and the short-term bullish dividing line moves up to 3345-3350. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to maintain the trend of low-long rhythm. Be cautious about short orders against the trend. I will give you tips on specific operations, and pay attention in time. Gold operation strategy: Buy gold when it falls back to around 3395-3405, and target around 3425-3440. If it is strong, continue to buy gold at the support of 3410-3408. When operating, be sure to strictly set stop loss, strictly control risks, and respond to market fluctuations steadily.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel
Gold under pressure: imminent rally or programmed pullback? \ Gold under pressure: imminent rally or programmed pullback? The 3,400\$ crossroads\ \ Good evening, fellow traders – welcome back to this scorching summer… on the charts!\ Yes, it’s been a while since my last post. But you know how it goes: when gold is silent, it’s usually loading up a big move. Meanwhile, I hope my previous analyses have kept you company — and more importantly, brought you value. Spoiler: \ I haven’t missed a single one.\ Before we begin: \ drop a boost and leave a comment\ . The community is our most precious gold. 📍 \ Current Context\ XAU/USD is walking a tightrope between \ 3,400\$ and 3,440$\ . This is a pivotal level, surrounded by international tension, a weakening dollar, and volatile economic expectations. The question is simple: \ Are we heading for new highs? Or dipping to refuel first?\ 🐂 \ Bullish Scenario: eyes on 3,440$\ A clear breakout above \ 3.440$\ could trigger the next leg up. 🎯 \ Target: 3,500\$ (new all-time high)\ • Geopolitical stress between \ Iran and Israel\ remains unresolved • The \ US dollar\ is sluggish, inflation is creeping back in • Markets are betting on a \ Fed rate cut\ • Gold? It smells fear better than anyone 🐻 \ Bearish Scenario: 3,400\$ must hold\ If buyers can’t defend the \ 3.400$\ level, we could see a step-by-step correction toward: 📉 \ Bearish Targets:\ • 3,295\$ • 3,245\$ • 3,120\$ • 3,070\$ As long as price stays below \ 3,440$\ , every bounce remains \ a selling opportunity, not a moonshot fantasy\ . 🌍 \ Geopolitical Snapshot (16/06/2025)\ • Iran and Israel keep exchanging “gifts” — drones, missiles, and tension • The dollar is losing safe-haven status, giving gold the spotlight • Oil is back above \ 73$\ , triggering renewed inflation concerns • The Fed is increasingly likely to \ cut rates\ , weakening the dollar and reinforcing gold’s strength 📊 \ Operational Summary\ | \ Direction\ | \ Trigger Level\ | \ Target\ | \ Strategy\ | | --------------------- | ---------------------- | ----------------- | ------------------------ | | \ LONG (Buy)\ | Break above 3,440\$ | 3,500\$ | New ATH | | \ SHORT (Sell)\ | Below 3,400\$ | 3,295\$ → 3,070\$ | Technical pullback setup | 🎯 \ Conclusion: the plan exists – just not the one you’re expecting\ Gold is standing at a major crossroads. Either it breaks out… or catches its breath. But remember: \ we’re traders, not prophets. We don’t predict — we react.\ I’m watching closely, ready to strike… with the right foot forward. Are you? \ Share your thoughts in the comments.\ \ Drop a boost and support those who help you see beyond the candles every single day.\ \ PipGuard\
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by PipGuard
Gold has recently broken below its 4-hour bullish Fair Value GapGold Market Analysis (In-depth & Strategic Overview): Gold has recently broken below its 4-hour bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is currently trading beneath its Consequent Encroachment (CE) level — a signal that short-term bullish momentum has weakened. In the latest 4H candle, the market swept the liquidity resting below the previous day's lows, a classic move to trap early sellers and collect stop-losses. Right after this liquidity grab, the price touched the daily bullish FVG, found support there, and then managed to close back inside the 4H FVG. This action reflects a temporary defense by buyers — but the battle is far from over. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: $3401: This is a critical resistance level. If the market successfully closes above $3401, it could signal a bullish continuation, paving the way for an upward move. $3389: This is a crucial support level. If price breaks below $3389, it would likely lead to further downside movement, opening the door for deeper corrections. ⏳ Current Strategy: The best move right now is to wait and watch how the market reacts to these key levels. A breakout above $3401 would confirm strength and potential bullish continuation. Conversely, a breakdown below $3389 could trigger a fresh wave of selling pressure. 🚨 Until one of these levels is clearly broken, the market may remain in a state of indecision or range-bound movement. 🔍 Always DYOR – Do Your Own Research! Stay informed, manage your risk wisely, and avoid emotional decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Peter_Wade
Gold Wave Analysis – 13 June 2025- Gold recently broke resistance level 3400.00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 3500.00 Gold recently broke the resistance level 3400.00 coinciding with the resistance trendline of the daily Triangle from April. The breakup of the resistance level 3400.00 accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the middle of May. Gold can be expected to rise to the next major resistance level 3500.00 (former monthly high from April. which stopped the previous impulse wave (3)).
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by FxProGlobal
XAUUSD is over bought on weekly Timeframe As we took buy on 1st attempt at 3435 towards 3460 although our TP is missed by 10 pips at 3448 . -Currently market Is not crossing 3445 barrier -Although this pump is because of War Escalation . - if we narrow down weekly Timeframe Gold is over bought. We're still focusing on buying on dips 3390-3380 will be my main area of buying. Keep in mind we have to get confirmation 1st before buying. All the enteries should be taken if All the rules are applied #XAUUSD
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Forexmaestro121