Is gold a short-term correction or a bull market turning point?Market news:
The London gold price has experienced a significant correction after hitting an eight-week high. Spot gold fell more than 1% on Monday, wiping out all the gains of last Friday. However, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the continued conflict between Israel and Iran, still provides support for international gold prices. The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting has become the focus of market attention.The continued tension in the Middle East is an important driving factor for the recent fluctuations in spot gold. The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated significantly since June 12. Israel's air strikes on the Iranian National Radio and Television Building and the Natanz uranium enrichment plant have caused serious damage to Iran's nuclear facilities. In addition to geopolitical factors, the policy trends of the Federal Reserve also have an important impact on international gold.For gold, the Federal Reserve's maintenance of high interest rates usually puts pressure on its price, because gold, as an interest-free asset, is less attractive in a high-interest rate environment. However, geopolitical risks and rising inflation expectations may offset some of the negative impacts, causing gold prices to remain volatile in the short term. Investors should pay close attention to the latest developments in the situation between Israel and Iran, the results of the G7 summit, and the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts, while being wary of the short-term impact of market sentiment and technical factors on gold prices. The monthly rate of US retail sales (commonly known as "horror data") will also be released on this trading day, and investors also need to pay close attention!
Technical review:
Technically, the daily price of gold is still running above the MA10/7-day moving average at 3364, the RSI indicator is above the value of the middle axis 50, and the price is running in the upper track of the Bollinger Band channel. The short-term four-hour chart MA10/7-day moving average high 3420 dead cross opens downward, the price pulls back to the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the RSI indicator retreats to the middle axis. The short-term formation is a bearish shock and fall, but the gold price is still in the buying structure channel on the daily and weekly charts. The main idea of today's trading is to sell at a high price and buy at a low price! Gold began to pull back when the situation eased. The fermentation of this round of news was relatively restrained by large funds, and did not test the high point of 3500 upwards. Overall, the increase in gold prices was not large, and there was still a process of pulling. The fundamentals have not changed, and gold is still in a bull market. As we said before, if we keep above the key point of 3400, gold will continue to be bought. Now that it has fallen below 3400, the short-term has gone out of the small-level top, and the market is no longer so strong. For our short-term operations, the short-term correction of gold prices should focus on the daily cycle MA5 support and the weekly level MA5 support to buy!
Today's analysis:
Gold continues to weaken in the short term. After the rapid decline last night, the rebound strength is not strong at all. It is obvious that there is a large selling pressure above. For the market that broke the original upward trend, we also said last night that the decline is not very large. It just changed from buying to shock. Our intraday operations can be sold in the short term first!Although gold has fallen below 3400, the short-term direction has changed, but the general direction has not changed. It is still buying. In the future, we still have the opportunity to look at the high point of 3500, but we have to wait for the bottom to stabilize before we go to buy the bottom. I will say later that in the current market, we can only follow the trend. We will do whatever the market goes!
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3383-3385, stop loss at 3372, target at 3420-3440;
Sell short-term gold at 3420-3423, stop loss at 3432, target at 3390-3370;
Key points:
First support level: 3383, second support level: 3372, third support level: 3353
First resistance level: 3418, second resistance level: 3430, third resistance level: 3450
