GOLDCFD trade ideas
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy for June 13.Technical analysis of gold
Daily chart resistance 3500, support below 3357
Four-hour chart resistance 3450, support below 3412
One-hour chart resistance 3450, support below 3412.
Gold operation suggestions: Affected by the regional situation in Israel/Iran, gold triggered emergency risk aversion and once rose to around 3445. From the current trend analysis, the support below focuses on the first-line support of 3412, and the pressure above focuses on the suppression near the daily level of 3500. The short-term long-short strength and weakness dividing line is 3412. Before the four-hour level does not fall below this position, continue to maintain the rhythm of buying on dips and look to 3450-3500. Observe the short-term chart and buy after stabilization.
Buy: 3412near SL: 3407
Buy: 3392near SL: 3388
XAUUSD H4 I Bullish ContinuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling toward our buy entry at 3403.57, which is a pullback support.
Our take profit will be at 3472, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, adding a significant level for a potential bearish reversal.
The stop loss will be placed at 3347.94, an overlap support.
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Gold June 18, 2025As of today, global financial markets are grappling with synchronized pressures from weak equity sentiment, elevated Treasury yields, central bank guidance, and commodity driven inflation expectations. The backdrop is heavily influenced by geopolitical volatility, a wave of global economic prints (Japan, Eurozone, and the U.S.), and FOMC projections signaling that the Federal Reserve remains cautious despite signs of inflation easing.
In Japan, economic data pointed to a mixed recovery. The Reuters Tankan Index declined from 8 to 6, reflecting some weakness in manufacturing sentiment. However, Core Machinery Orders YoY posted a robust +6.6% vs. 4.0% forecast, while Exports contracted -1.7% and Imports plunged -7.7%, reducing the trade deficit significantly to -637.6B yen from -893B. These readings signal that despite external weakness, Japanese internal machinery demand remains resilient.
Turning to Europe, the eurozone’s inflation data supports a growing disinflation trend. Headline CPI fell to 1.9% YoY from 2.2%, and Core CPI came in at 2.3% YoY vs. 2.7% prior. MoM readings for all CPI measures printed 0.0%, reinforcing that price momentum has stalled. The ECB’s Elderson and Lane both acknowledged this trend, setting the tone for a more dovish summer if wage data aligns.
In the United States, today's schedule was dense with economic catalysts. Housing data was relatively firm: Building Permits came in near expectations (1.42M) and Housing Starts rose to 1.35M, up 1.6%. The labor market remains tight, with Initial Jobless Claims at 246K and the 4-week average holding steady at 240K. These numbers suggest continued economic resilience but not acceleration. The MBA Mortgage Rate stands at 6.93%, continuing to weigh on affordability. The EIA’s oil stock report showed a moderate -2.3M draw in crude, alongside a surprise +1.5M build in gasoline inventories, reflecting downstream bottlenecks more than demand weakness.
The FOMC kept rates at 4.50% as expected, but the new dot plot projects only one cut in 2025, compared to the two previously expected. The Fed’s projections still assume inflation gradually moderating but highlight the risk of delaying easing into late Q4. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 was unchanged at 3.5%, supporting the narrative of a soft landing without the urgency for rate relief.
Equity markets reacted negatively to this macro landscape. The Dow fell -299 points (-0.70%), the S&P 500 lost -50.3 points (-0.83%), and the Nasdaq 100 dropped -218 points (-1.0%). The VIX spiked 12% to 21.40, pushing back into risk-off territory. All 11 S&P sectors closed lower, with Technology (-1.72%), Healthcare (-1.66%), and Consumer Discretionary (-1.72%) leading the decline. Energy (XLE) was the most resilient sector, closing flat as crude prices held firm. On a YTD basis, Technology still leads at +23.7%, followed by Communications (+25.4%) and Real Estate (+12.7%), but momentum is clearly weakening.
Equity factor performance confirmed the defensive tone. All core size/value/growth matrices were negative, with small-cap value and growth both down -1.1%. Among qualitative factors, only Buybacks (+0.3%) and IPOs (unchanged) showed stability. Private equity, quality, and hedge fund proxies all underperformed. Momentum and low volatility outperformed slightly intraday, which often precedes late cycle rotations into capital preservation.
In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields remained firm. The 2Y yield was at 3.956%, 10Y at 4.410%, and 30Y at 4.910%, maintaining a deeply inverted curve. This inversion continues to reflect recession hedging, although long-end yields are now rising on supply pressure. Treasury ETFs showed a modest recovery: TLT +1.22%, TLH +1.12%, and TIPs +0.52%, benefiting from short-covering after recent oversold levels. Investment-grade credit was strong: LQD +0.36%, Senior Loans +0.37%, and High Yield (HYG) was flat. Convertible bonds (CWB) remained under pressure at -0.50%, consistent with the growth unwind.
Globally, developed markets declined broadly. The U.K. (EWU -1.2%), France (EWQ -1.4%), and Germany (EWG -1.3%) fell in tandem, echoing weak eurozone demand. Japan (EWJ -0.82%) and Australia (EWA -0.92%) also pulled back. Emerging markets underperformed significantly: China (FXI -1.6%), Brazil (EWZ -0.70%), and South Korea (EWY -2.60%) declined on risk aversion and a stronger U.S. dollar.
Commodities provided a mixed signal. Crude oil spiked intraday, with WTI at $74.94 (+4.4%) and Brent at $73.71 (+4.6%), as geopolitical risk flared and stockpiles tightened. Heating oil rose +2.27%, while gasoline gained +1.34%. Natural gas added +0.81% on weather and storage expectations. Gold remained flat at $3,387.83, while silver outperformed with a +0.32% move. In agriculture, soybeans and wheat bounced, but corn (-0.88%) and sugar (-3.64%) slid on oversupply concerns.
Yields globally show differentiated behavior. The U.S. 10Y yield is 4.41%, Germany’s 10Y stands at 2.53%, and the U.K. 10Y trades at 4.56%. The yield spread between U.S. and Japan remains wide, supporting USD/JPY structurally. The U.S. 30Y yield has stabilized at 4.91%, while Japan’s 30Y is at 2.93%. This spread continues to support carry trades and reinforces the need for Japan to intervene if the yen weakens past 145.
All in all, markets are shifting into a cautious consolidation phase. The Fed's steady hand, modest disinflation in Europe, firm labor data, and rising real yields all point to a delicate balance. Investors should stay underweight long-duration bonds unless auction demand improves. Sector-wise, focus should remain on energy and defensives, while trimming growth and discretionary exposure. Commodities offer upside potential amid geopolitical risk, and real assets remain in favor.
Tend to short gold, it may still retrace to 3360-3350 areaAt present, gold as a whole is still fluctuating in the 3395-3365 area. In the short term, both long and short sides are not willing to break through. They may be waiting for the guidance of the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's monetary policy press conference. However, from the current oscillation structure, because the high point of gold rebound and the low point of retracement are gradually moving downward, the center of gravity of the candlestick chart is shifting downward, and the weight of gold shorts is slightly higher.
From the current structure, 3395-3405 has become a new round of pressure area. Gold has been unable to break through for a long time, and has tried to accelerate downward many times during the retracement process. Although it can stabilize above 3375-3365, it may be easier to break through below after several tests. Once the 3375-3365 area is broken, gold may even continue to move to the 3360-3350 area.
Therefore, within the 3395-3365 oscillation range, we can temporarily maintain the trading rhythm of selling high and buying low in the short term, while we must pay attention to the breakthrough of gold. Once gold breaks through, the trend may be continued, and we need to follow the trend to execute transactions!
GOLD - WAVE 5 BULLISH TO $3,600Gold moving perfectly, according to our bullish analysis which I posted for you all last week. Gold been bullish for a technical perspective for a while, now we're seeing the elite push out the fundamental factor of the Israel attack on Iran, to help Gold keep moving up.
Gold is still within a 'Bullish Accumulation' phase, hence why it's not moving up very strong. Bare in mind, we are in the FINAL WAVE 5 bullish move on a HTF, so we can experience choppy price action.
Beyond the News: Why I Trust the Charts When Trading GoldBased on the current structure, I believe gold is in the fifth wave of a larger Elliott Wave formation. On the higher time frame, the price action appears to be contained within a channel that resembles a leading diagonal pattern—where Wave 1 is typically the longest. From this perspective, I anticipate a potential retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the most recent upward move, or a test of the lower boundary of the channel before a reversal may occur.
My trading plan involves two potential entry strategies:
Enter at the 0.618 Fib retracement with a stop-loss set near the 0.881 level.
Wait for a bounce off the lower channel, followed by a pullback and a breakout above the start of the pullback before entering the position.
While no trader can be right all the time, having a structured plan with predefined take-profit and stop-loss levels is key to effective risk management and long-term survival in the markets.
Why I Favor Technical Over Fundamental Analysis
For those wondering why I rely more on technical analysis—especially Elliott Wave Theory—over fundamental news, here’s my reasoning:
I’ve found that news and earnings-based trades often behave irrationally. A company may report strong earnings and guidance, only to see its stock sell off, fake a rally the next day, and then sell off again. Conversely, a company with poor earnings may drop ahead of the report, only to rally immediately after. These inconsistencies made it difficult to build a reliable strategy based solely on fundamental data.
Over time, I observed that despite news events, the market often completes its technical structure—such as Elliott Wave formations and Fibonacci cycles—before fully reacting to news. In these cases, fundamental developments tend to accelerate or confirm the direction already implied by the technical setup, rather than override it.
Gold is no exception. While it's common to assume that the S&P 500 (ES) and gold move in opposite directions due to risk-on/risk-off dynamics, I’ve noticed that they can trend in the same direction when their respective Elliott Wave structures align. This doesn't eliminate the inverse correlation concept entirely, but it highlights the importance of integrating technical analysis into a fundamentally driven view for more precise entries and exits.
Ultimately, I view fundamentals as the fuel, and technicals as the engine that defines the path.
Gold Monday opening operation strategyDue to the situation in the Middle East over the weekend, gold is likely to open higher on Monday, but I am highly skeptical about its continuity. After the fermentation of the past few days, gold has met the conditions for a high opening. If it opens strongly at 3445-50 and continues, then we will focus on the 3488-93 line on Monday. If it falls back, we will continue to focus on the 3403-3408 line support. If it does not break, we will continue to go long. After all, the 3400 level has successfully bottomed out and rebounded on Friday, and the bulls are still the trend. We will continue to be bullish when we fall back.
From the 4-hour analysis, the short-term support below is 3403-08, and the key support below is the recent top and bottom conversion position of 3375-80. The intraday retracement relies on this position to continue the main bullish trend. Next week, we will focus on the 3488-93 line suppression. The daily level will continue to maintain the same rhythm of retracement and long positions. We need to be cautious about short positions against the trend.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Buy when gold falls back to 3408-10, and buy when it falls back to 3390-95, stop loss at 3388, target at 3445-3450, and continue to hold if it breaks;
XAUUSDXAUUSD (Gold Spot/USD) based on the provided chart data:
Key Data:
Current Price: 3,434.15 USD (+0.12%)
Recent Range: 3,420–3,440 (consolidation zone)
Critical Levels:
Resistance: 3,440 → 3,442.30 → 3,500+
Support: 3,420 → 3,400 → 3,380
Volume: 32.62K (+1.40% increase)
Trading Plan:
1. Neutral Stance (Wait for Confirmation)
Price is trapped in a tight range. No clear trend → High risk of false breakouts.
2. Buy Signal (If Confirmed)
Trigger: Sustained breakout above 3,440 (close > 3,442.30 reinforces validity).
Target: 3,460 → 3,480 → 3,500.
Stop-Loss: Below 3,430 (or 3,425 for tighter risk).
3. Sell Signal (If Confirmed)
Trigger: Breakdown below 3,420 (close < 3,418.00).
Target: 3,400 → 3,380 → 3,360.
Stop-Loss: Above 3,435 (or 3,440 for aggressive entries).
Critical Risk Notes:
✅ Tight Stops Essential: Use 5-10 point SLs (volatility risk).
✅ Volume Check: Only trade breakouts with rising volume.
✅ POE Alert: The Point of Control (POE) at 3,338.63 hints at deeper downside potential if 3,420 breaks.
❌ Avoid Forced Trades: No trade > low-risk opportunity.
Why This Approach?
Gold is testing mid-range levels after a minor uptick. Without a decisive move above 3,440 (bullish) or below 3,420 (bearish), patience is optimal. Monitor for:
U.S. dollar strength & Fed policy cues.
Geopolitical/news triggers (gold is sensitive to risk sentiment).
Final Call: 🟡 Wait for 3,420 or 3,440 break before acting.
Stay disciplined! 🚦
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Breakdown : Structure Shifting + Target📍 Overview:
Gold (XAUUSD) has been displaying a classic technical development that traders need to pay close attention to. What initially looked like a smooth parabolic rally has now transitioned into a clear structure shift, as evidenced by the breakdown of a rounded support curve and rejection from a major resistance zone. The market is signaling a bearish retracement or even a deeper correction, and this setup offers potential trading opportunities both for short-term scalpers and swing traders.
📊 Chart Breakdown:
🔸 1. The Rounded Support Curve (Black Mind Curve):
The curve outlines a strong upward acceleration phase starting from the June 9 low.
This curve often acts like a dynamic support — similar to a parabolic trendline.
As long as price stays above it, the momentum remains intact.
In this case, Gold broke below the curve, which is a sign of exhaustion and potential bearish control.
🔸 2. Major Resistance Zone (~$3,417 – $3,427):
This level has acted as a ceiling multiple times in the past, visible in earlier highs from June 5 and 6.
Upon re-approaching this zone, price showed aggressive wicks to the upside followed by strong bearish candles — signaling institutional selling and profit-taking.
This triple rejection reinforced the resistance’s significance.
🔸 3. Structure Mapping and Transition:
After the breakdown, we observed a clean market structure shift: the formation of lower highs and lower lows, a key sign of bearish trend development.
The current price action is flowing downward in an organized pattern, suggesting further downside unless a strong reversal or bullish engulfing setup occurs.
🔸 4. Next Reversal Zone (~$3,360):
This area is identified as a high-probability support zone based on:
Past price reaction.
Previous accumulation zone from June 10–11.
Psychological round number proximity (e.g., $3,350 – $3,360).
Traders should monitor this level for potential reversal setups such as bullish engulfing candles, pin bars, or RSI divergence.
🧠 Market Psychology:
This pattern reflects a classic distribution phase at resistance after an emotionally driven uptrend:
Retail traders jump in late as the price approaches highs.
Institutions begin distributing (selling into strength).
Support breaks down as retail stops get triggered.
Price drops into a demand zone where accumulation may begin again.
Understanding this psychological cycle helps traders align with the smart money rather than chasing price action blindly.
🛠️ Potential Trading Plans:
✅ Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
Wait for a retest of the broken structure (~$3,390 – $3,400).
Look for rejection patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing, shooting star).
Entry: ~$3,395–$3,400 | Target: ~$3,360 | SL: Above $3,420.
✅ Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal from Support
Monitor price action around $3,360 zone.
Look for bullish structure forming: higher lows, reversal candles, divergence.
Entry: On confirmation (e.g., bullish pin bar on 1H or 4H).
Target: Back to structure at ~$3,400–$3,410.
⚠️ Risk Considerations:
Avoid entering in the middle of the range.
Use proper stop-loss positioning to manage volatility.
Keep an eye on macro catalysts like:
US inflation reports
Fed commentary or interest rate decisions
Geopolitical tensions that can spike gold
🧭 Summary:
The market is unfolding a textbook technical setup:
Resistance rejection
Rounded support breakdown
Bearish structure
Approaching a high-probability support zone
Patience is key — let price come to your level. Watch the $3,360 zone for potential reversal, and use structure to guide entries and exits.
📌 Final Note:
This analysis is part of the MMC Methodology (Market Mapping Cycle), which focuses on identifying macro structure, confirming micro structure, and mapping turning points with precision.
Let the market reveal itself. Don't chase — plan and execute with clarity.
XAU/USD 4H Updated Technical Analysis 06/12/20254H Market Structure & Trend
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,383, showing a generally bullish market structure on the 4-hour chart. The price has been making higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) – a classic uptrend pattern
Recently, bulls broke above a notable resistance level (a Break of Structure, or BOS), confirming continued upside momentum
So far no Change of Character (CHOCH) signal (which would require a lower low to hint at a trend reversal, meaning the uptrend remains intact. Gold is also trading above its daily pivot point (3370), reflecting a bullish intraday bias
Overall, sentiment on the 4H timeframe is positive unless key support levels give way.
Key Support & Resistance Zones (Demand vs. Supply)
Support (Demand Zones): Immediate support lies in the 3355 – 3340 region (marked by S1 and S2). This zone lines up with prior price congestion and is viewed as a demand zone, where buyers have historically stepped in
In fact, multiple support levels cluster here (e.g. previous lows and trendline intersection), creating a broad buy zone. The idea is that as price dips into this area, buy orders are likely waiting, and the deeper it goes into the zone, the more attractive it becomes for bulls
If 3340 fails, the next support is around 3325 (S3), another potential demand area where gold found a footing earlier. Traders will watch these support zones for bullish reversal signals (like a strong bounce or candlestick patterns) to confirm that demand is indeed active. Resistance (Supply Zones): On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 3385 (R1), with a stronger supply zone around 3400 (roughly the R2 3402 level). Here, multiple technical levels overlap – including a recent swing high and a psychological round number. This convergence of resistances creates a supply zone where sellers may be waiting.
As gold approaches 3385–3402, it’s likely to encounter profit-taking or new short positions. If price does punch through 3400, the next resistance is around 3415 (R3), which could attract even more selling interest. Within the 3385–3415 zone, expect price to possibly stall or reverse, unless bulls muster a strong breakout. Traders should be cautious about bullish positions as price nears this supply area, and watch for any bearish reversal clues (like wicks or a double-top) indicating that sellers are active
Fibonacci Retracement Confluence
Recent price swings show Fibonacci retracement levels aligning with the above zones, adding confidence to those areas. For instance, the rally from the last 4H swing low (around 3325) up to the recent high (~3385) has a 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement roughly in the 3340–3355 range. Fibonacci levels often pinpoint where price might stall or reverse during a pullback, and indeed this $3,340-$3,355 support zone corresponds to the popular 50%–61.8% retracement band – a prime spot where bargain-hunting buyers could step in.
In an uptrend, a pullback to these Fib levels is considered a healthy correction rather than a trend change. Thus, if gold dips to that area, many bulls will be watching for a bounce. On the flip side, if gold extends higher, Fibonacci extension levels suggest the 3400+ region might be a measured move target (for example, 100% extension of the last pullback lands near 3400). This reinforces that the 3385–3415 supply zone is a critical hurdle. In summary, Fibonacci analysis supports the idea that mid-$3300s is a value zone for buyers, while around $3400 is a potential exhaustion area for the current upswing.
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Insights
From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, institutional footprints are visible on the chart. The ongoing bullish structure (higher lows, no lower low yet) means no CHOCH (trend change) has occurred
Smart money likely continues to favor longs until a key low breaks. We can identify a possible bullish Order Block in the 3340 area, which is essentially the last small bearish candle on 4H before the strong push up
This order block (an institutional buy zone) overlaps with our demand zone, suggesting big players placed buy orders around 3340. If price revisits that zone, it could ignite another rally as those orders get filled. There are also liquidity considerations in play: Above $3,400, there may be clusters of buy stop orders (from breakout traders or short stops) – what SMC traders call buy-side liquidity.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see gold spike above 3400 to grab that liquidity (stop-loss hunt) before either accelerating higher or sharply reversing. Conversely, below $3,340, many bulls likely have stop-losses (sell orders) – sell-side liquidity resting under support.
A quick dip under S2 (liquidity grab) followed by a recovery would actually be a bullish signature (a bear trap by smart money). However, if price breaks significantly below 3325 and holds, that would mark a bearish CHOCH (first real trend change signal) and indicate the smart money possibly switching to selling rallies. Until then, the path of least resistance is still up. Any fair value gaps (imbalances) left from the rapid rise may exist around 3360 (for example), but so far gold has been backfilling these moves, keeping the trend steady.
Potential Trading Setups (4H Outlook)
Given the above analysis, here are two possible trade ideas on the 4H timeframe – one bullish and one bearish – with high-conviction zones in focus:
Bullish Buy Setup (Buy the Dip):
A pullback into the 3355–3340 support demand zone could offer a buying opportunity. This area has multiple factors of confluence: pivot S1/S2 supports, a Fibonacci 50–61.8% retracement, and an order block. If gold’s price action shows a clear reversal here (for example, a bullish engulfing candle or double bottom on 1H/4H), buyers can consider going long. The upside targets would be a return to 3385 (R1), with stretch targets near 3400–3415 (R2/R3). A prudent stop-loss could be placed just below 3325 (just under S3 and below the demand zone) to avoid a deeper reversal. This setup aligns with the prevailing uptrend (trading with the trend) and aims to “buy low” in the value zone.
Bearish Sell Setup (Sell the Rally):
If gold surges into the 3385–3402 resistance supply zone without slowing, traders should watch for signs of buyer exhaustion. In a still-range-bound market or if momentum wanes near the top, one might consider a short position in this zone if bearish signals emerge (e.g. a 4H shooting star candle, bearish divergence, or a minor BOS downward on lower timeframe). The idea is that smart money could use the liquidity above 3385/3400 to sell into. Initial downside targets could be the pivot area around 3370 and then the 3355 support. A stop-loss would ideally be just above 3415 (clear of the R3 level), in case gold breaks out to new highs. This counter-trend style trade is riskier since the 4H trend is up, so it’s crucial to wait for confirmation of a reversal before selling. Essentially, you’d be selling high at known resistance, but only if the market shows it can’t push further.
Both setups hinge on patience and confirmation. Rather than blindly picking tops or bottoms, let the price action confirm that the zone is holding. Remember that support and resistance levels are zones, not exact lines – price can wick through slightly before reversing. Always manage risk carefully.
Key Levels Snapshot
Pivot: 3370
R1: 3385 – R2: 3402 – R3: 3415
S1: 3355 – S2: 3340 – S3: 3325 These levels are derived from the classic pivot point formul, using recent price data. The pivot point at 3370 is the average of the previous session’s high, low, and close.
Trading above this pivot supports a bullish bias, while below it turns the bias bearish.
The R1/R2/R3 levels mark successive resistance hurdles above the pivot, and S1/S2/S3 mark support floors below it. Traders often use these as guideposts for intraday moves.
Takeaway:
Gold’s 4H chart shows bullish momentum with key support in the mid-$3300s and resistance near $3400. It’s wise to trade the reaction at these zones – buy dips near support in an uptrend, or sell rallies at resistance if momentum fades. In all cases, wait for price to confirm direction and stick to your trading plan. Happy trading!
XAUUSD 15M CHART PATTERNYour XAUUSD (Gold vs USD) sell trade setup is as follows:
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📉 Sell Entry:
3370
🎯 Take Profit Levels:
1. 3360 (10 pips)
2. 3350 (20 pips)
3. 3338 (32 pips)
❌ Stop Loss:
3398 (28 pips risk)
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⚖ Risk-Reward Overview:
TP Level Reward (Pips) Risk (Pips) R:R Ratio
TP1 (3360) 10 28 0.36
TP2 (3350) 20 28 0.71
TP3 (3338) 32 28 1.14
---
✅ Suggestions:
The best R:R is at TP3 (1.14) – above 1:1, which is the bare minimum for many traders.
Risk is higher than initial reward for TP1 & TP2 – might be worth skipping unless you're scaling out.
Would you like me to turn this into a trading plan or help you set up position sizing?
GOLD On June 18, 2025, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 245,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous 250,000 and in line with forecasts around 246,000.
Interpretation of the Data:
Current Level:
Claims are stabilizing near the highest levels seen in the past eight months but remain historically low overall, indicating the labor market is slowing but still relatively resilient.
Labor Market Momentum:
The slight decline suggests a modest easing in layoffs but also reflects a gradual loss of labor market momentum, consistent with softer hiring trends seen in recent months.
Seasonal and Technical Factors:
Some elevation in claims is attributed to seasonal factors such as summer school breaks allowing non-teaching personnel to claim benefits, and technical adjustments.
Impact on Markets and Fed Policy:
The Fed views stable but slightly elevated claims as a sign that the labor market is cooling but not weakening sharply.
This supports the expectation that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% in the June 18TH meeting while monitoring future data for signs of further labor market weakening or inflation pressures.
The data reduces immediate pressure for aggressive rate cuts but keeps the door open for gradual easing later in the year if the labor market softens further.
#GOLD
XAU/USD M30 CHART PLAN 18/6/2025Trading Setup and Strategy Explanation:
Buy at: 3372
Resistance at 3390
Important Note:
Resistance should be above the current price, not below. If 3375 is below 3430 it typically indicates support, not resistance.
Corrected Interpretation:
Here's how your setup likely looks:
Buy Entry: 3390
Support (not resistance):3372
Target 1 3390
Target 2 3410
Level Type:
- 3360 Support (Stop-loss zone)
3375 Entry
3410 Target 1
Trade Notes:
- If XAU/USD holds above 3420, your long position is technically supported.
- A break below 3403 might invalidate the bullish setup — consider a stop-loss below that.
- Momentum toward 3385–3390 is possible if the market breaks out of short-term consolidation or reacts positively to macro news.
Strategy Preference.
Would you like a chart or confirmation based on technical indicators (RSI, trendlines, volume, etc.)?
After the Pullback, Gold May Head Toward the 3500 Mark📊 Market Overview:
Gold surged to 3444 during the Asian session on rising expectations of an early Fed rate cut after softer-than-expected US CPI data. However, profit-taking pushed prices back to the 3425 zone.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: 3444
• Nearest Support: 3403 – 3406
• EMA 9: Price remains above EMA 9 → trend is still bullish.
• Momentum & RSI: RSI has cooled off from near-overbought territory (~70), suggesting a short-term pullback may occur.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may correct slightly toward support before resuming its upward trend if the 3403–3406 zone holds firm.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: 3440 – 3444
🎯 TP: 3420
❌ SL: 3449
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 3406 – 3403
🎯 TP: 3426
❌ SL: 3399
live trade and break down 5k profits, 3500 targetGold price sticks to positive bias as sustained safe-haven buying offsets modest USD strength
Gold price sticks to its bullish tone for the third consecutive day on Friday and trades close to its highest level since April 22 through the first half of the European session. Against the backdrop of trade-related uncertainties, a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets.
Can Gold Push Higher ? Confirmation Buy Conservative: above 3403 Comfortable close of 4H candle.
Another Expectation : Previous day Low Sweep and 1H Order Flow switched We can look Long.
Still waiting for confirmation.
Yesterday i entered aggressively early stopped out.
Still we are valid fur Bullish Price but not confirmed.