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XAUUSD Trade Setup – June 17, 2025🔍 30-Min Timeframe | Volume Profile | Risk-Reward Analysis 🔹 Short Position Idea 🔻 Entry: $3,393.83 🔻 Stop Loss: $3,402.14 (above recent value area high) 🔻 Take Profit: $3,359.88 (prior HVN support area) 📉 R:R ≈ 3:1 🔸 Context: Price rejected the upper volume node and failed to break the prior high. Strong selling pressure followed by a pullback to a low-volume node. VWAP and POC levels show imbalance favoring bearish continuation. 🔸 Confirmation: Break and close below $3,389 with volume could confirm downside momentum. 📌 Watching for price to respect the value area and migrate toward the lower demand zone.
FX:XAUUSD
by Tommykamo
Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Technical Outlook-17 June 2025Gold’s 4-hour chart shows a clear uptrend: price is making higher highs and higher lows, trading above key moving averages and an upward trendline Analyst ManiMarkets notes “a remarkably robust and sustained uptrend… printing higher highs and higher lows” since late 2024. The nearest major hurdle is around the $3,500 all-time high. The current structure remains bullish: we have not seen a sustained break of the uptrend, so the overall bias is bullish. In Smart-Money terms, recent price action shows no bearish break of structure on 4H (no BOS), and price is simply consolidating near highs – a bullish sign. Key zones to watch: Demand/Order Block (~$3,374–3,380): Around $3,375 is a swing-low and past demand area. It lines up with the 4H EMA50 and 1H EMA200, a classical support confluence. A strong bullish “order block” (heavy buying zone) sits here – a typical smart-money support area. Pivot Point (~$3,389): Using the classic pivot formula On the recent 4H range gives Pivot ≈ 3,389. This acts as a short-term balance point. Resistance (≈$3,400–3,405): Gold has multiple prior highs around $3,400–3,405 (e.g. the overnight high ~$3,405 and the last swing high ~$3,405) which have been repeatedly tested. Traders are watching a break above ~$3,405 for follow-through. (A recent idea noted gold “bounced off support” near $3,390 and is “looking for a clean sweep of the highs at 3405”.) Major Resistance ($3,500): The all-time peak around $3,500 is a big psychological barrier. We expect stiff supply if price approaches 3,500. Using these levels, the pivot-based support and resistance on the 4H chart are: Pivot Point: ~$3,389 R1: ~$3,406 (Pivot + 1×range) R2: ~$3,421 (Pivot + 2×range) R3: ~$3,437 (Pivot + 3×range) S1: ~$3,374 (Pivot – 1×range) S2: ~$3,357 (Pivot – 2×range) S3: ~$3,342 (Pivot – 3×range) (These are rough levels using the standard formula on the last 4H high/low.) Beyond numbers, price-action is key: we look for bullish patterns at support (e.g. bull-engulfing or pin-bar at ~$3,375–3,380) and cautious action near resistance. A brief “liquidity grab” happened at the $3,375 area recently (price wiggled below and then shot back up), which in Smart-Money jargon sweeps stops. That suggests larger players may have been absorbing buying interest. In short, the tape looks healthy for bulls unless $3,375 breaks decisively. A break of the $3,400–3,405 highs would be a bullish BOS (break of structure), targeting the next supply zone. Trade Setups (1H, Aligned with Bullish Bias) Below are three high-probability long setups on the 1-hour chart (in line with the 4H uptrend). Each is sized for a ~$10 stop from the entry zone. Buy near $3,374–3,380 (Demand Zone): Entry: $3,374–3,380 area (around Pivot S1 and the recent swing low). Direction: Buy. Stop: ~$3,364 (just below this zone, ~$10 lower). Targets: ~$3,402 (near Pivot R1/previous high), and then ~$3,420 (around next resistance). Reason: This zone is a confluence of support – it was a recent 4H low and aligns with EMAs (1H EMA200/4H EMA50) It acts like a “bull order block” where buyers stepped in A strong bounce from here keeps the bullish structure intact. Trigger: Look for a bullish reversal candle on 1H (e.g. an engulfing or pin-bar) forming near $3,375. This confirms rejection of lower prices and signals a buy setup. Chart: Example 1H gold chart. Blue shaded area marks the ~$3,374–3,380 buy zone (Pivot S1/EMA support). A bullish reversal candle here would trigger a long entry, targeting $3,402 then $3,420. Buy break-&-retest at ~$3,402–3,408: Entry: After a close above ~$3,405, look to buy on a pullback into $3,402–3,408 (just above the old high). Direction: Buy. Stop: ~$3,392 (about $10 below the entry zone). Targets: ~$3,430 (next swing high) and ~$3,450 (round level/upper channel). Reason: A decisive move above ~$3,405 would mark a BOS (break of the prior high), shifting structure higher. That resistance then becomes support on a retest. This is a classic “breakout retest” entry. (As noted, highs around 3,405 have been tested repeatedly, so breaking them signals strength.) Trigger: Wait for a 1H candlestick to close firmly above 3,405, then buy on the next pullback into the $3,402–3,408 range with a bullish candle or dip-buy signal. Buy on pullback to ~$3,385–3,390 (minor higher low): Entry: $3,385–3,390 if price dips but holds above the 4H pivot (~3,389). Direction: Buy. Stop: ~$3,375 (below the entry zone, about $10 down). Targets: ~$3,420 and ~$3,450 (same as above levels). Reason: If the market skips Setup 1 and 2, any 1H pullback that still holds above the pivot (creating a higher-low) is another opportunity. Buying this higher-low keeps us aligned with the 4H uptrend. Essentially, we allow price to re-test the pivot area as new demand. Trigger: A bullish reversal pattern on 1H in the $3,385–3,390 area (for example, a hammer or bullish engulfing) would mark a higher-low and signal a long entry. Each setup has a tight stop (~$10) just beyond the support zone, and logical profit targets at nearby resistance levels. All assume the 4H trend stays intact. If support fails (e.g. a clean break under $3,374), be ready to reassess. Takeaway: Gold’s 4H trend is bullish, so focus on buying dips into identified support zones (not shorting). Use tight stops beyond those zones and aim for the next resistance. In practice, that means looking to go long around ~$3,375–3,380 and ~$3,405 (on a clean breakout), riding any bullish continuation toward $3,430–$3,450, while managing risk at each step.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tami512
Geopolitics and Fed policies dominate the trend of gold prices 📌 Gold news On Monday, boosted by the risk aversion of the Iran-Israel war, the gold price hit a high of 3452, but the continuity was not strong, and a series of other adjustments appeared; let's briefly sort it out: 1: Adjustment: Adjustment is normal. If the market rises, if the risk aversion does not continue to exert force, then the gold price can only return to technical adjustments. Therefore, Monday's adjustment trend and the decline trend are normal! 2: Risk aversion trend: The risk aversion trend will not be reversed for the time being! Once the war starts, it will not end easily; unless the interests of both sides are not damaged, the two sides agree to a ceasefire, but at present, the hope and probability are relatively small, so the risk aversion trend is the mainstream of the current global market; 3: The direction of the Iran-Israel war is nothing more than a few possibilities: A: The war expands, the surrounding countries stand in line, and the US and Western imperialism join the battlefield; the war expands rapidly! At the same time, Iran is forced to block the Strait of Hormuz! This is a manifestation of escalating war; B: Both sides, as well as the forces behind them, have calculated their interests, reached an agreement, and agreed to end the war conflict; this mainly depends on Iran's attitude; is it "powerful and unyielding", continuing to oppose the United States and imperialism; or is it pro-American, completely changing its identity, or changing its identity to submit to Israel and the United States; To sum up: risk aversion eased slightly on Monday, but the overall global market is still risk-averse; technical adjustments are normal trends; but don't completely ignore the importance of risk aversion and risk aversion control because of technical adjustments; in addition, the subsequent results of the Middle East war are nothing more than the above two; what determines all this is the attitude of both sides; 📊Comment Analysis Although the gold price fell below 3400 and the short-term trend changed, the general direction still remains bullish. In the future, it is still expected to hit the high point of 3500, but it is necessary to wait patiently for the bottom to stabilize before choosing the opportunity to buy the bottom. The current market is changing rapidly, and investors should adhere to the principle of following the trend and flexibly adjust their trading strategies. 💰Strategy Package Short-term gold 3383-3393 long, stop loss 3372, target 3420-3440; Short-term gold 3420-3430 short, stop loss 3435, target 3390-3370; ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
XAUUSD: Analysis H4 next weekThe continued tension in the Middle East (Israel–Iran) has led to a flight to safe havens, a key driver for gold. Reduced pressure from the USD due to expectations that the Fed will slow down its rate cut (~September), coupled with inflationary pressures, could support gold prices If tensions in the Middle East do not ease next week, gold's rally could extend and we could see 3500. But be careful, as if tensions ease and some good news from the USD comes, the rally could be halted.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Stone_Haven
XAUUSD bullish move possible.This chart represents a technical analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute timeframe. Here's a concise breakdown of the key points: 🔹 Structure & Key Levels: Liquidity Sweep: Price initially swept the liquidity above the recent highs, triggering stop-losses of early sellers or weak buyers. Support Zone: Marked around the 3410–3415 range, where price has shown rejection and stability. Prime Zone for Long Position: Below support, around 3400–3405, this area is marked as an ideal entry for long trades based on strong bullish reactions in the past. 🔸 Possible Scenarios: Bullish Reaction from Support: Price may respect the current support zone and begin an upward move towards the resistance area around 3450. Deeper Pullback into Prime Zone: If support breaks, price could dip into the prime long entry zone before reversing upwards. ✅ Conclusion: The chart suggests a buy (long) setup is likely, especially from the support or prime zone, targeting the previous highs near 3450. Risk management would be important if the price breaks below 3390.96 (red zone), which could invalidate the long setup.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by mia211wic9
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis - 16 June 20254H Chart: Market Structure & Bias Gold’s 4-hour chart shows a bullish structure: price has been making higher highs and higher lows (a valid Break of Structure/BOS) No bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) signal is present to suggest a reversal, so the overall bias remains bullish. In other words, the trend is intact and buyers still dominate. Key moving averages (not shown) also slope upward, reinforcing a “buy the dip” bias. We note that price recently stalled near 3427–3435, forming a small consolidation. This clustered area around the recent high acts as a near-term supply (resistance) zone (a possible order block where big players sold). On the downside, prior support is visible around 3380–3400, where buyers stepped in on earlier pullbacks. In summary, the 4H bias is bullish, with dips into demand areas likely to attract buying interest. Support/Demand Zones: At ~3380–3400 there is significant buying interest (a demand zone), as well as a minor support band around 3330–3350. These areas coincide with key Fibonacci retracements (around 50–62% of the last rally), making them high-probability bounce zones. Resistance/Supply Zones: On the upside, the 3420–3435 range is resistance (recent swing high and a bearish order-block area). Farther above, 3470–3485 is a major resistance cluster (around prior highs and a 61.8% extension), where supply may re-emerge. Key Zones (4H Chart) Buy Zone 1 (Demand): 3380–3400. This zone acted as support on prior pullbacks and aligns with ~50%–62% Fibonacci retracement levels. It represents a demand area (many buy orders), so bounces are likely here. Buy Zone 2 (Support): 3330–3350. A deeper support area where buyers piled in previously. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retrace of the last leg, making it a strong multi-purpose support/demand zone. Sell Zone 1 (Supply): 3420–3435. This marks the recent 4H swing high and a potential bearish order block. It has already capped rallies, so price may stall or reverse here on a retest. Sell Zone 2 (Resistance): 3470–3485. A higher cluster of resistance (major psychological level and Fib extension) where selling could appear if gold extends its rally. This is a logical profit-taking area. Each of these zones is a range (not just a line) to allow for some trade flexibility. We watch for price action (like pin bars or breakouts) within these ranges to signal entries. 1H Chart: Trade Setups Buy at 3385–3395 (Long). Entry Zone: 3385–3395 (just above the lower demand zone). Stop-Loss: ~10 USD below the zone (around 3375). Take-Profit: 3420 (minor resistance) and 3460 (next supply cluster). Reason: This zone combines the 4H demand area and ~50% Fib support. We expect bulls to defend this zone. Trigger: Wait for a bullish reversal candle on 1H (e.g. a strong bullish pin bar or engulfing candle with a long lower wick). Such a candle (long-tail wick) at support indicates a liquidity grab by buyers. Alternatively, a clear 1H BOS above the last minor swing high would confirm strength and serve as a breakout entry. Buy on 3425–3430 breakout (Long). Entry Zone: Break above 3425–3430 (just above the recent 4H high). Stop-Loss: ~10 USD below entry (around 3415). Take-Profit: 3480–3490 (next resistance zone). Reason: A push through the 3420–3435 supply zone would show buyers overcoming sellers. This would keep the uptrend running. The breakout opens room toward the 3470–3485 resistance area. Trigger: Enter on a 1H bullish breakout/close above 3430 (a new higher high) – i.e. a bullish BOS confirming continued uptrend. Optionally look for a pullback to 3425 as a retest entry if the breakout is swift. Buy at 3330–3340 (Long). Entry Zone: 3330–3340 (deeper support zone on 4H). Stop-Loss: ~10 USD below the zone (around 3320). Take-Profit: 3380 (first target), then 3420. Reason: This is a strong support/demand area (4H 61.8% Fib support). A drop here would be a deeper pullback – a higher-risk entry with a bigger reward if buyers step in. Trigger: Look for a clear bullish reversal on 1H (e.g. hammer/engulfing candle) or a shift in structure (price fails to make a new low and instead forms a higher low). A bullish candlestick in this zone implies demand is defending it. Each setup is aligned with the 4H bullish bias (we’re looking for long opportunities at support zones or breakouts). The ~$10 stops are set just beyond the defined entry zone, giving each trade a favorable risk/reward. Takeaway: Gold’s 4-hour trend is up. We favor buying near the identified demand/support zones (or on a confirmed breakout above recent highs) and targeting the next resistance levels. Use tight stops (~$10 beyond each zone) and aim for 2:1+ reward on these high-probability setups. Trade with the trend and respect the key zones above.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tami512
Gold (XAUUSD) Trading Setup – Mid-June 2025 Analysis🔰 Gold (XAUUSD) Trading Setup – Mid-June 2025 Analysis This chart represents a strategic price action-based setup on Gold (CFDs on Gold – US$/Oz) using a 15-minute timeframe. It includes clearly defined entry zone, support/resistance levels, and profit-taking targets (TP1, TP2) for both bullish and bearish scenarios. 🔍 Current Market Context Current Price: ~$3431.77 Structure: The price has been in an upward trend with a consolidation phase forming near the key mid-zone. Highlighted Zone: A decision zone is marked in red (between ~$3422 and ~$3418), acting as the key liquidity zone or breakout area. 📈 Bullish Bias If price breaks and holds above the red zone: ✅ TP1: $3480 ✅ TP2: $3580 These levels act as short- to mid-term bullish targets based on projected extensions of recent upward momentum. 📉 Bearish Bias If price breaks and holds below the red zone: ✅ TP1: $3320 ✅ TP2: $3260 This indicates a possible reversal or correction phase, with targets derived from recent swing lows and support areas. 📌 Trading Notes The blue shaded areas represent target zones for partial or full exits. Red zone is the critical breakout decision point. Ideal for breakout or pullback traders. Can be combined with volume/confirmation indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD, or price action candles) for entry timing.
TVC:GOLD
by sonubachhav
Gold Testing Daily Resistance – Will the Breakout Hold?Gold is currently testing a major 1D resistance zone at 3432–3450 after a strong bullish move. • 1D Chart: Price has rallied back into the resistance zone after bouncing from ascending trendline support. • 4H Chart: Strong momentum candle broke through the prior 4H resistance zone at ~3360, confirming bullish pressure. • 1H & 23m Chart: Price is holding within a bullish channel, but showing signs of consolidation under key resistance. Key Zones: • Support: 3380 / 3360 • Resistance: 3432–3450 Bias: Bullish above 3360. Needs daily close above 3450 for continuation.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by AutoMarkets
XAUUSD: Geopolitical Tensions & Price Action Strategy In the wake of growing tensions between Iran and Israel, XAUUSD (Gold) has once again become the focal point for many traders seeking stability. Let’s break down the key technical levels and how global events could shape market behavior in the days ahead. Resistance at 3,446.87 – A Barrier to Watch Gold’s price is currently testing the resistance zone at 3,446.87. As the geopolitical situation worsens, we might see an influx of risk-off flows, pushing the price to break past this level. A clear break above would signal further bullish potential, especially if risk aversion continues to dominate global markets. Demand Zone at 3,392.29 – Strong Support The Demand Zone at 3,392.29 remains a critical level. The price has reacted positively to this support area multiple times, suggesting that institutional buying could be taking place in anticipation of further upside or protection against geopolitical risks. Volume Spikes and Market Sentiment Trading volume has been a key indicator of increased market reaction to news. We’ve seen strong volume surges during periods of geopolitical escalation, confirming the heightened market sensitivity. Keep an eye on volume during any major news announcements, as this could provide a clearer view of potential market direction. RSI Analysis: 52.31 – Neutral Momentum The RSI reading of 52.31 reflects a neutral market, neither overbought nor oversold. However, the influence of geopolitical risks means that this neutral stance could shift rapidly, especially if global tensions escalate, causing a surge in Gold’s demand. Strategic View: Bullish Scenario: If XAUUSD breaks above 3,446.87, look for continuation plays as global risks increase. Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold at the demand zone could lead to short opportunities or corrective moves. Traders should remain cautious and adjust strategies accordingly, as geopolitical risks can lead to unexpected market volatility. Stay alert and manage your risk accordingly! Follow @GoldenZoneFX For more content and valuable insights.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldenZoneFX
XAUUSD: Analysis June 13This morning, the gold market witnessed a strong price increase after receiving two important news: - US CPI was lower than expected, causing the USD to weaken. - Israel continued to strike Gaza, raising concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East. 🟨Trend: Strong increase - Break resistance ✅ Potential Buy Zone: 3410 – 3405: This is the breakout zone after the news, you can wait to buy if the price retests. SL 2399 ❌ Potential Sell Zone (exit block or surfing): ✅ 3450 - 3455, SL 3461: Strong resistance, old accumulation zone (according to Bar chart, Resistance is determined at 3,455). If RSI/H1 shows overbought signal, consider taking profit or short Sell.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Stone_Haven
1
Gold Price Analysis June 12Yesterday's D1 daily frame bounced and closed above 3348. That led to a price gap today. 3375 is a resistance zone that is showing price reaction in the Asian session. If it cannot be broken at the end of the session, it is possible to set up a sell at 3355 for BUY strategies in the GAP zone. Any price decrease today is considered a good opportunity for buying Gold to aim for 3411. Pay attention to the 3355-3347-3338 zone for BUY signals today. Target is still 3411 but there is still 3386 which may have a reaction.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1
GOLD IS MOVING UPWARD.#xauusd #gold Hello friends, very busy this days and also no well, had little health issue. But I was watching gold closely in that days too, caught some great moves. In previous analysis I mentioned gold will move upward, unfortunately gold breaked the pattern and moved down to 3394 after that we see again upward movement started. Again a bearish flag pattern is formed but due to tension in geopolitics gold is strongly bullish also yesterday was CPI news where dollar news was negative and dollar move down due to which gold pushed upward. Today gold opening was in gap in upward. Today I am expecting to move upward and later on it will definitely come down to fill the gap near 3355. So our main target is now 3380-3391-3402. Comment and like for analysis. Love it then follow Any Query Reach Us or comment down. Follow for more updates. Rudra Vasaikar Wishes You A Great And Very Amazing Trading Life. Trade Safe, Trade Right. RISK WARNING 🔴 🔴 🔴 There is high risk of loss in Trading Forex, Crypto, Indices, CFDs, Features and Stocks. Choose your trade wisely and confidently, please see if such trading is appropriate for you or not. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Highly recommended - Information provided by Pro Trading Point are for Educational purpose only. Do your investment according to your own risk. Any type of loss is not our responsibility. HAPPY TRADING. #gold #xauusd #xauusdtrading #goldtrading #goldanalysis #forextrading #forex #trendline #goldsignals #goldnews goldlatestanalysis #xauusdtradesetup #forextradingguide #fxgold beyong technical analysis, chart patterns, gold, goldanalysis, goldideas, goldlong, goldsignals, goldlatestanalysis, goldtrading, goldtradingview, technical indicators, xauusdanalysis,
TVC:GOLDLong
by rudravasaikarrr
How to Calculate Forex Lot Size on TradingView. Free Calculator Do you know that TradingView has a built-in Forex position size calculator? It is completely free, it is simple to use, and it does not require a paid subscription to use it. In this article, I will teach you how to calculate a lot size for your trades on TradingView easily in 3 simple steps. Step 1 - Setting Up the Calculator First, open a price chart on TradingView and find a "Trading Panel" button in the bottom of the window. Click "Maximize Panel" afterward. In the list of brokers, select " TradingView Paper Trading" and click "Connect". Paper Trading is built in demo trading account on TradingView. It does not require KYC or any other verification. Choose "Account" list box and tap "Create Account" . Then fill all the inputs with exactly the same parameters as your real trading account has. Type in your exact account size, leverage and commission rate. Then click "Create". TradingView position size calculator is ready to use. Step 2 - Find the Trading Opportunity Find a trading setup to trade. Make sure that you know the exact entry level and stop loss. Imagine that you want to buy EURUSD from 1.0899 price level with 1.08846 stop loss level. Step 3 - Measure a Proper Lot Size Right-click on a price chart and choose "Trade" and in the appeared menu select "Create New Order". Fill the following fields: "Price" - your entry level, "% risk" - your desired risk per trade in %, "Stop Loss price" - your stop loss price level. Your lot size will be based on the calculated units . In forex trading 1 standard lot equals 100000 units. The only thing that you should do is to take the exact units number and divide it by 100000. In our case we have 704225 units. 704225 / 100000 = 7,04 lot. That will be your lot size for buying EURUSD with 1% risk for 100000 trading account. If you apply TradingView for market analysis and charting and your trading terminal does not have a lot size calculator, this method will be the quickest and the easiest to apply for measuring the position size. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Gold Ready to Shine Again? Watch This Battle Zone Closely!Gold is consolidating above the 50% retracement (3372) after defending key structure at 3368–3378. Bullish momentum is building as Silver continues to lead, and the US Dollar (DXY) weakens post-FOMC. If buyers step in here, we could see a clean breakout toward 3415–3450 and beyond. But if 3368 breaks, the bull case is temporarily invalidated. 🧭 Technical Highlights: ✅ Support Zone: 3368–3378 (Fibonacci + bullish order block) ✅ Resistance Targets: 3395, 3415.84, 3451.84, 3470+ 🔄 Silver Divergence: XAGUSD broke higher → leading XAU bullishly 🔼 Bias: Bullish (as long as 3368 holds) 🌐 Fundamental Drivers: 🏦 Fed dot plot turns dovish – Only 1–2 cuts, but no hikes planned; supports gold upside. ⚔️ Middle East tensions rising – Iran vs. Israel/US rhetoric keeps risk premium high. 📉 DXY weakens after Powell avoided hawkish tone; real yields remain capped. 💬 Silver outperforming on safe-haven + industrial hedge flows. 💡 Trading Plan Summary: Buy Zone: 3372–3380 TP Zones: 3395, 3415, 3450+ Invalidation: Close below 3368 Confirmation: Break and close above 3395 with volume = signal to scale in 🔔 Keep an eye on: US Jobless Claims, SNB & BoE Decisions DXY 98.70 key level Silver reaction near 36.70–37.20
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ultreosforex
4
Stick to shorting goldGold is currently fluctuating in a narrow range of 3380-3385, and the trend is relatively slow. We also need more patience. In comparison, I think the current short-selling force has a slight upper hand, because gold has shown signs of accelerating decline after a difficult rebound many times, and has fallen below 3380 many times. According to the current gold structure, gold does not have sufficient room for decline, and it is still possible to continue to fall to the 3365-3355 area. It is expected that gold will not fluctuate too much before the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's monetary policy press conference. For this interest rate decision, I think the possibility of a rate cut is not great, and the current interest rate may still remain unchanged. The reduction in the expectation of a rate cut may stimulate a wave of gold declines in the short term. So in the short term, I still prefer a short trade in gold. Obviously, gold is currently under pressure in the 3395-3405 area, so we can still try to short gold in this area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steffen_Schade
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD | June 18, 2025🌀 Current Wave Structure on H4 The recent drop has broken below the previously labeled wave 1 zone, requiring an adjustment to our wave count. Following the abc corrective move (black), a potential triangle formation is emerging. At this point, we’re monitoring two possible scenarios: 🔹 Scenario 1 – Triangle as a Wave X Correction: Price is forming an abcde triangle, potentially part of a larger WXY corrective structure. If this plays out, we may see a strong decline forming wave Y, targeting a break below 3297, and possibly extending to 3248. 🔹 Scenario 2 – Leading Diagonal Triangle as Wave 1: If this is a leading diagonal triangle for wave 1, then wave 1 is likely completed, and we are currently in wave 2. In this scenario, price should hold above 3248, with likely support zones around 3335 or 3300. 🎯 Key Price Zones & Resistance Levels Major Resistance: 3389 – 3402 (based on volume profile) – prime area for potential short setups. Short-term Resistance Levels: 3389, 3402, 3412 – watch for reversal signals here. 🔻 Momentum Outlook Daily (D1): Momentum is declining and expected to enter oversold territory within 2 candles – indicating a weakening downtrend and supporting the leading diagonal scenario. H4: Momentum is preparing to turn bearish – supports short opportunities. H1: Already turned bullish – suggests a possible corrective bounce before the next drop. 📌 Trade Plan 🔴 Sell Zone: 3400 – 3403 • SL: 3410 • TP1: 3365 • TP2: 3335 🟢 Buy Zone 1: 3335 – 3332 • SL: 3325 • TP1: 3365 • TP2: 3402 🟢 Buy Zone 2: 3302 – 3209 • SL: 3292 • TP1: 3335 • TP2: 3365 • TP3: 3402
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WavePoint_FX
GOLD Unemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
showing a descending wedge (falling wedge) pattern formingThis is a 30-minute (M30) chart of XAUUSD (Gold vs. US Dollar), showing a descending wedge (falling wedge) pattern forming, which is a classic bullish reversal setup. Chart Description: Pattern Formed: Descending wedge is clearly drawn with: Lower highs and lower lows, converging between two trendlines. Price action is respecting both boundaries of the wedge. Current price is mid-range inside the wedge. Projected Price Path (Dotted Arrows): The chart suggests: A possible fakeout or final dip towards the wedge's lower boundary. Followed by a rejection and bullish breakout. Target would likely be above 3,392+, possibly aiming toward the wedge's origin zone (~3,408 or higher). Market Implication: This setup is typically bullish, especially if: Volume increases near the lower edge. Price fails to make a new low and starts printing bullish structure (HL → HH). Summary: XAUUSD is consolidating inside a falling wedge on the 30m chart, suggesting potential for a bullish breakout. Traders may anticipate one last liquidity sweep before a breakout toward higher resistance levels.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by King_Maker_FX