Gold XAUUSD Move 16 June 2025Market Structure:
The market isin a clear uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows until a recent break of the ascending trendline, signaling a short-term structural weakness.
Current price is in a retracement phase, heading towards previous demand zones.
🔹 Zone 1 (3408–3414):
Confluence of:
Broken trendline retest (former support).
Minor order block / demand zone.
Overlapping price reaction area.
Risk: This zone may act as a liquidity inducement before price sweeps deeper into Zone 2.
Entry trigger: Bullish engulfing or LTF market structure shift on 1m/5m.
🔹 Zone 2 (3380–3384):
Stronger demand zone:
Aligned with previous accumulation base.
Larger imbalance (FVG-type area) and bullish impulsive origin.
More convincing for high-RR entries.
Higher probability: If Zone 1 fails or only wicks price, Zone 2 may provide the main entry opportunity.
Entry trigger: Shift in LTF structure with volume spike or breaker flip.
✅ Trade Signal Suggestions
🟦 Setup 1: Buy from Zone 1
Entry: 3410 (upon bullish confirmation)
SL: 3400 (below structure low)
TP: 3434 (prior high)
RR: ~2.4R
Note: Only take if price forms bullish structure (MSS or BOS) on lower timeframe.
🟦 Setup 2: Buy from Zone 2
Entry: 3380/3384 (upon confirmation)
SL: 3372 (below demand zone)
TP: 3411 or 3434 (scalp to intraday swing)
RR: ~1:3 or better
Note: Wait for clean rejection or reversal candle from this zone.
⚠️ Risk Management
Risk 0.5–1% per trade.
Use entry confirmation such as:
Bullish engulfing
Fair value gap reaction
Break of internal structure
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) - 30m ChartA 30-minute candlestick chart showing the price movement of Gold Spot against the U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD). The current price is $3,433.88, reflecting a +$48.32 (+1.43%) increase. The chart highlights a recent upward trend with a shaded resistance zone around $3,460.06 and a support level near $3,400.06, as of 10:52 AM PKT on June 15, 2025.
Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly Forecast - 16 to 20 June 2025🔥 Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Outlook | June 16–20, 2025
🧭 Macro & Geopolitical Context
Israel–Iran war (Operation Rising Lion) has escalated: Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure on June 13, followed by Iranian missile/drone retaliation, have sharply intensified regional conflict .
The safe‑haven bid is in full swing: spot gold surged toward $3,500, breaking $3,400 last week, driven by risk‑off flows and a weaker US dollar .
🧩 Fundamental Catalysts
1. Fed dovish tilt: May CPI/PPI prints came in soft, lifting expectations for rate cuts. No change is expected at the June 18 meeting, but the Fed’s dot‑plot and Powell’s tone offer upside triggers .
2. Technical breakout: Gold has reclaimed key levels—23.6% Fibonacci (~ $3,377) now acts as support, with the next resistance zones at $3,450 → $3,500 .
3. Bank & analyst sentiment: Goldman Sachs sees potential for $3,700 by year-end; Bank of America projects a path toward $4,000/oz .
📊 Technical Setup & Levels
Support: $3,400; next down at $3,377 (23.6% Fibo) and $3,325 (21‑day SMA) .
Resistance: $3,450 → major barrier $3,500 (all‑time high).
Momentum: RSI around 62—leaves room for further upside .
Catalysts to Monitor
June 18 Fed meeting: Dot‑plot, Powell’s press conference.
Any Iran retaliation or widening of the conflict.
Short‑term US data: June CPI, PPI, Retail Sales (especially mid‑week).
USD strength or weakness—dollar reversal could clip gold gains.
Follow for more updates
#XAUUSD #GOLD #Goldanalysis #WeeklyAnalysis #trade
Chart Breakdown – GOLD (4H) KEY LEVEL TO WHATCH AND WHY Hello traders!
It’s been a while since our last market update — I’ve been tied up working on a few exciting projects behind the scenes. But let’s dive straight into the action with a fresh look at GOLD for this week.
🔍 Chart Breakdown – GOLD (4H)
We’ve been tracking a Double Drive Bullish setup that activated from the Entry Level at 3177.11, and since then, price has unfolded a sequence of high-probability structures:
✅ ABC bullish continuation
✅ Multiple Double Drive formations
✅ A clean 121 Bullish Symmetry Pattern
✅ Rectangular Channel breakout
✅ Local Head & Shoulders bottom
As expected, price found support near the 78.6% retracement at 3308, which was also the final wall of the last 121 structure. From there, GOLD pushed impulsively and is now trading at 3432.
🟩 Key Level to Watch: 3432.50
This is our pivot. If price holds this zone, we may be setting up for an extension move — potentially toward:
🔹 61.8% Extension –
🔹 78.6% Extension –
🔹 100% 121 target – full symmetry alignment and major exhaustion zone
📈 Summary:
We’re in a continuation structure with bullish pressure building. GOLD is respecting all key reversal structures and fib symmetry so far. As long as 3432.50 holds, we’re eyeing new highs — with the potential to challenge ATH zones through the layered completion targets above.
Let’s keep our focus sharp, manage risk like pros, and trade with discipline.
Stay tuned for real-time updates and new pattern alerts throughout the week.
— Trade Chart Patterns Like The Pros
XAUUSD Breakout Alert | Bullish Momentum in PlayGold has finally broken out of the consolidation zone that held price action for several weeks. The bullish trendline has acted as solid support, and now we're seeing strong momentum toward the key $3,500 resistance level.
🔍 Technical Setup:
✅ Price breakout from consolidation range
✅ Respecting a clean bullish trendline
📈 Immediate resistance at $3,490–$3,500
🔄 Potential for a retest before continuation
Strategy Insight: We may see a minor pullback to the breakout zone (~$3,400–$3,420), which could offer a solid buy-the-dip opportunity before further upside.
🎯 Bullish Targets: $3,500 and beyond
⚠ Invalidation Zone: Break below trendline
📢 Gold traders—what’s your plan? Are you in or waiting for a retest?
#XAUUSD #GoldBreakout #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ForexTrading #TrendlineSupport #TradingView
Gold Price Analysis June 13Yesterday's D1 candlestick increased, confirming the continuation of the uptrend. Following that uptrend, the Asian session saw a strong increase in price to the highest peak of 3443. If there is still confirmation from the h4 candlestick above 3395, today will still be a bullish candlestick with a large amplitude at the end of the day.
After reaching the highest peak of the month, Gold is having a downward correction at the end of the Asian session. This correction lasts until the support of 3397 to have a good BUY signal. In case you want to SELL, you must wait for a 50% test of the previous full-force downtrend H1 candle (around 3434) and the continuation of the Selling side.
If the 50% test does not appear, you must reverse to find a BUY Breakout point. Note that the False break at the peak of 3343 should wait for confirmation of the small-frame DOW wave to enter the order, which will be safer for this morning's break.
If you get a BUY order, the target will be 3364 and this area will have a profit-taking reaction from the Buyers, causing the price to decrease. Gold may touch the threshold before ATH 3394 and there will be a reaction.
In the opposite direction, there is a sweep to 3376, which is considered the daily support zone and you can buy in this area.
All SELL signals are considered obstacles, so set a short target and a new BUY signal sets a long expectation.
Gold breaks through strongly and is bullish
Gold market analysis and outlook
Fundamental driving factors
Inflation data and Fed policy
The US CPI data in May was lower than expected, reinforcing the market's expectations for the Fed's September rate cut. The US dollar index was under pressure (falling to 98.42, close to a six-week low), boosting the attractiveness of gold.
The expectation of a downward trend in real interest rates and the decline in US Treasury yields further supported gold prices.
Geopolitical risks
Tensions in the Middle East have intensified, and safe-haven demand has surged. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has received buying support.
Influence of related markets
The weak US dollar (-0.4%) reduces the cost of holding gold, and the volatility of US stocks and uncertainty in trade policies have prompted funds to flow to safe-haven assets.
Key technical signals
Daily level
The price broke through the previous shock range, the short-term moving average was in a bullish arrangement, and the MACD momentum turned strong. Pay attention to the 3390-3400 pressure zone.
Yesterday's big positive line closed to confirm short-term strength, and 3385-3400 is the next key resistance zone.
Short-term (1H)
After hitting 3356 in the early trading, it broke through the high again, showing that the bulls are dominant, and 3355-3360 constitutes the first support of the day.
If the price does not break 3355 after the retracement, the bullish structure will be maintained, and the upper target is 3377-3385; after the breakthrough, it can look to the 3400 mark.
Trading strategy suggestions
Bull opportunities
Entry area: 3345-3350 support range.
Target: 3377 (Asian high) → 3385 → 3400.
Stop loss: below 3340 (to prevent false breakthroughs).
Short risk warning
If the gold price rises to the 3385-3400 area and is under pressure, you can try shorting with a light position, stop loss 3405, and target 3360.
Key risk control position
Support: 3345 (strength and weakness dividing line) → 3338 (daily bull defense line).
Resistance: 3377 (European session high) → 3387 (previous high concentration area).
Conclusion: Gold maintains a relatively strong pattern under the resonance of fundamentals and technical aspects. The operation is mainly to go long on pullbacks, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of profit-taking at high levels.
Gold Weekly Outlook: Bullish Breakout on DeckHello,
🪙 XAU/USD Weekly Outlook
📅 May 25 – 30, 2025
📍 Current Price: $3,355.35
📈 RSI (1D): 57.99 — Neutral to mild bullish momentum
🔮 Summary & Key Levels
Gold remains bullish, supported by USD weakness, geopolitical tension, and safe-haven demand. Without hawkish shocks, expect a test of $3,440+ this week.
Level Significance Likelihood
$3,300 – $3,355 Support zone, dip-buying likely 🔵 High
$3,355 – $3,390 Current range, mild upside grind 🟡 Moderate
$3,390 – $3,440 Key resistance test 🟢 Likely if USD weak
$3,440 – $3,500 Breakout extension zone 🟠 Conditional (Fed/dovish data needed)
< $3,280 Bearish invalidation 🔴 Unlikely barring major USD reversal
🧭 Directional Bias:
Bullish with breakout potential — driven by rising U.S. debt concerns, Fed rate cut talk, and risk aversion.
🔍 Supporting Factors
US Dollar Weakness:
USD dropped 1.4–2.3% vs majors; JPY & CHF gained as safe havens.
Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit rating and weak Treasury auctions amplify fiscal stress.
Trump’s tariff threats revive trade war fears, pressuring USD further.
Fed & Inflation Watch:
Fed speakers mixed; Waller hinted at cuts if tariffs escalate.
May 31 Core PCE inflation data critical — softer print could ignite breakout.
Safe-Haven Rotation:
JPY & CHF strength signals risk hedging.
Global tensions, equity fragility, Middle East unrest support gold demand.
🌐 Global Macro Highlights & Gold Implications
Region Highlights Gold Impact
🇺🇸 US Fiscal strain, downgrade, mixed data 🟢 Bullish
🇪🇺 Eurozone Hawkish ECB, stable inflation 🟡 Mildly bullish
🇬🇧 UK Strong CPI, Brexit optimism ⚪ Neutral
🇯🇵 Japan Hawkish BoJ pivot, rising inflation 🟢 Safe-haven driver
🇨🇭 Switzerland CHF rally, deflation concerns 🟢 Risk-off tone
🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿 Mixed data, dovish bias ⚪ Commodity FX support
📅 Key Events to Watch (May 25–30)
Date Event Impact on Gold
Daily Fed speakers (Waller, Bostic) 🟠 Dovish tone supports gold
Friday US Core PCE Inflation 🟥 Major catalyst — soft print = breakout risk
Anytime Trump tariff announcements 🟥 Volatility spike = bullish catalyst
Ongoing Risk sentiment & equity volatility 🟠 Supports safe-haven flows
✅ Bottom Line
Gold’s technical and macro setup is strong. A push above $3,390 could open a move toward $3,440–$3,470, especially if Friday’s PCE data disappoints or trade tensions escalate. Downside limited unless USD sentiment reverses sharply.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
BEST XAUUSD M30 BUY SETUP FOR TODAYGold (XAU/USD) is showcasing strong bullish momentum after breaking above the key resistance zone near $3,404, now acting as fresh support. 🔄 The price formed a bullish structure with clean higher highs and higher lows on the 30-minute chart, confirming buying strength. 🟣 The marked demand zone around $3,392–$3,404 is critical—if price retests and holds this level, we can expect a continuation toward $3,420 and beyond. 🚀📌 Traders should watch for bullish confirmations on pullbacks to this zone for potential long setups. 🧠⚡
XAUUSD Where are we in the Wyckoff cycle?We are between Phase B and Phase C of a potential Distribution on the higher range (around $3400.
Here's the breakdown:
Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR) are well-formed.
We are now waiting for the confirmation of the Secondary Tests and also a potential Upthrust Actions near the top around $3400 area.
Next logical sweep target will be Buy-side liquidity above PDH area.
Possibly creating Secondary test for confirmation.
Then it should trigger a markdown phase.
If distribution fails, Smart Money would invalidate the entire range with a full Breakout + Retest + Continuation above 3,400 but low probability without more volume or wars.
Two scenarios here:
Bearish (Higher Probability)
Idea: Wait for a Secondary Test or Lower High around the resistance/POI near 3,390–3,396
Entry: Short on rejection or bearish M5 structure break after tagging that area
SL: Above 3,400 (or 30-40 pips above ST candle wick)
TP1 = 3377 (gap close)
TP2 = 3360 (Daily Gap)
TP3 = 3338 (PDL retest)
🟩 Bullish (Only if invalidation happens)
Idea: If we break above 3400 clean and hold on retest, it means Phase D of Accumulation started instead.
Entry: Long on retest of 3400 as support
SL: Below 3400
TP: Trail it...
Stay reactive around 3,390–3,396 for short opportunity only if price shows signs of failure there.
By the time it took me to post this idea the price has already move up 100 pips.
Trade safely!!
Iran tensions rise: a setup brewing for gold and oil Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400.
At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward $120 if Israel takes military action against Iran. “I don’t want to say it’s imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen,” President Trump said during a White House event.
Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints have potentially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September, with a second cut possibly following before year-end.
Will gold definitely rise if the news is good?
📊Technical aspects
1. The daily line pattern continues to close. The previous three days relied on the lifeline to lift the space. Now the lifeline position is in the 3317 area, which is close to the early morning low point 3319 and becomes the support range
The upper rail resistance position 3405 coincides with the previous high point 3403.5 area
Comprehensive support 3317-3319, resistance 3403-3405
2. The four-hour surge of more than 50 US dollars has pulled the pattern upward, but the European session just fell sharply by 37 US dollars, and the market has been pulled back to the exit again. Pay attention to the lifeline position and the double line superposition at 3335-3330, which also coincides with the lower track of the small channel 3330-3325 area, and together become the nearest support area
The upper track overlaps with the upper track of the small channel 3370 area
Comprehensive support 3320-3330, resistance 3370-3380
Currently, under multiple favorable factors, gold has repeatedly failed to break the previous high (3403).
From the technical pattern, it can be seen that the upper resistance line is still strong. On the contrary, the sharp drop just echoes the weakness of the bulls. Gold is still dominated by shorts.
Finally, let me talk about the current international situation that is favorable to gold. If you simply trade based on news, I don’t think everyone will become a millionaire by reading the news.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position:3370-3385
How Gold Could Be Affected by Possible Iran Conflict? Gold begins the new day on a bullish note following escalating developments in the Middle East. Yesterday, markets were focused on the US–China deal. Although an agreement was reached, tariffs but overall trade tensions remain elevated. Combined with the lower-than-expected core CPI, gold mostly moved sideways, apart from intraday noise. However, this could change in the days ahead.
US–Iran nuclear negotiations appear to be stalling. A new round of talks is scheduled for Sunday, June 15. The negative newsflow escalated with Iran’s defense minister warned that US bases in the region could be targeted if conflict breaks out. US ordered all non-essential personnel to evacuate and approved the voluntary departure of military family members from the region. Simultaneously, reports surfaced that "Israel is ready to strike Iran."
The negative newsflow continued today. The International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution declaring Iran non-compliant with its international obligations. In retaliation, Iran announced it would build a new uranium enrichment facility at a hidden and secure location and unveiled plans for new military drills.
The timing of this escalation raises the risk of direct conflict. Netanyahu’s government is facing collapse, with the possibility of new elections looming. At the same time, Iran is nearing nuclear weapons capability. While Trump is more openly supportive of Israel than Biden, he is reluctant to involve the US in any direct or indirect conflict. This dynamic raises the chances of an Israeli strike on Iran.
Adding to the tension is the upcoming July 9 deadline for tariffs. Trump intends to send unilateral tariff agreements to trade partners with a “take it or leave it” approach. This could sharply increase trade tensions and further support gold prices.
Today's news flow is heavily bullish for gold, and the technical outlook aligns with it. The triangle formation has broken, and gold has retested the upper boundary, gaining momentum from that level. If current risk levels remain elevated, especially if multiple strikes on Iran occur, a medium-term move above 3600 could begin.
Despite the strong bullish setup, we are in a market where sentiment can shift in minutes, with major news emerging almost daily. In this environment, it's crucial to define key levels and indicators for risk management. At the moment, the 50-day EMA appears to be holding well as a support level. This moving average could be the final line that determines the medium-term direction for gold. If it breaks, the bullish outlook may no longer be valid.
Analysis of the latest market trends of gold surge and plungeFrom the 4-hour analysis, the support below is around 3338-45. If the intraday retracement relies on this position, the main bullish trend will remain unchanged. The short-term bullish strong dividing line is 3320-25. Before the daily level falls below this position, any retracement is a long opportunity. Maintain the main tone of participating in the trend.
Gold operation strategy:
If gold falls back to 3338-45 and does not break, go long, stop loss 3329, target 3375-3380, and continue to hold if it breaks;
Gold-----sell near 3393, target 3380-3366Gold market analysis:
Yesterday, gold was basically a repeated shock, the K line was repaired at one position, and buying and selling were back and forth around the M side of the suppression platform 3405. Yesterday, our analysis was completely in line with our expectations. Yesterday, we also repeatedly arranged 5 sell orders, arranging 3382 break sell, 3387 sell, 3393 sell, 3382 sell, 3377 sell. Today's idea is to continue selling. The daily line cannot determine the bottom of this wave of decline. There are data in European and American time today. I think we can rely on the 3405 platform to be bearish before the data. If 3405 breaks, we adjust our thinking to be bullish. Otherwise, we can sell repeatedly. Gold is oscillating in the short term. Try not to chase it and wait for it to rebound and suppress the position to sell. In addition, the daily moving average suppression position of the moving average is 3396-3363, which is also the main reason for its repeated game at this position. The weekly buying momentum is not dead yet. Be cautious of its rocket in the second half of the week.
In today's Asian session, we will first focus on the suppression of 3395. The risk of taking more is relatively large. The low point below is not stable. The Asian session fell to 3370 and rebounded quickly. From the perspective of the pattern, 3372-3366 is the support. The suppression position of the 1H hourly moving average is near 3395. Yesterday's US session rebounded at around 3396, and the hourly K suppression position was 3400. All the above are suppressed. In addition, the opening position today is also near 3393.
Pressure 3393, 3400, 3405, support 3382, 3370, and the watershed of strength and weakness in the market is 3382.
Fundamental analysis:
In the previous fundamentals, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors. The situation in the Middle East has indeed changed the way gold and crude oil are traded. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and there is also a speech by Chairman Powell during the US session.
Operation suggestions:
Gold-----sell near 3393, target 3380-3366
Golden investment opportunity emerges!Market news:
In the early Asian session on Wednesday (June 18), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $3,380 per ounce. As the "safe haven king" in the global financial market, international gold has shown resilience in bottoming out and rebounding under the dual drive of recent geopolitical and economic uncertainties. The rise in London gold prices is inseparable from the fueling of tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered its fifth day, and geopolitical risks continue to heat up, injecting strong momentum into safe-haven assets.Although geopolitical risks have pushed up the safe-haven demand for gold, the strong performance of the US dollar has significantly suppressed gold prices. Against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the dollar's renewed support and the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude have become important factors limiting the upward trend of international gold prices. Investors need to pay close attention to the Fed's policy guidance, the trend of the US dollar and the latest developments in the Middle East. In addition, the initial value of the annualized total number of US building permits in May and the annualized total number of US new home starts in May will also be released on this trading day, and investors also need to pay attention.
Technical Review:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded, and adjusted widely and fluctuated fiercely. The daily chart closed with a positive cross line, and the RSI indicator's central axis 50 value flattened. The price dropped to the MA10 daily average line of 3366 and rebounded sharply, reaching 3396 in the Asian session. The short-term four-hour chart moving average is glued together, and the RSI indicator's central axis is adjusted. The hourly chart Bollinger Bands are closed, and the moving averages are glued together. Technically, gold maintains a wide range of fluctuations and short-term participation.The intraday trend and the weekly chart's high point gradually move downward, which shows that the control of selling in the market is gradually increasing. Although the gold price failed to continue the buying trend at the beginning of the week, it does not mean that buying is completely dominant, especially before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday this week, the market still has strong uncertainty about the future trend!
Today's analysis:
After gold bottomed out, it began to fluctuate again, but the overall trend is still selling. The gold rebound is still under pressure at 3400 and began to fall back. In the short term, gold 3400 is still an important resistance. Gold continues to sell at high prices before it effectively breaks through 3400. Today’s market is once again blocked when it hits a high point. The current intraday high is around 3396. The market has been operating under the pressure of 3400 in the past two days, and there is no sign of the market standing above 3400. Therefore, the 3400 barrier is still an effective pressure point. As long as it does not break through and stabilize at 3400 today, the rebound is an opportunity for us to sell!
Operation ideas:
Short-term gold 3365-3370 buy, stop loss 3356, target 3390-3440;
Short-term gold 3390-3400 sell, stop loss 3408, target 3370-3350;
Key points:
First support level: 3363, second support level: 3346, third support level: 3333
First resistance level: 3400, second resistance level: 3408, third resistance level: 3420