GOLDCFD trade ideas
XAUUSD_4H&1D_BuyGold Analysis 4-hour and Daily Medium-term Time Frame Elliott Wave Analysis Style Gold is in a long-term ascending channel Based on Elliott Waves, the market is expected to have entered a new upward trend and has broken waves 1 and 2 and is currently in a large wave 3. The targets for wave 3 are $3480, $3525, and $3600, respectively. Good luck and wish everyone abundance and wealth 💚💚💚
Pending Orders Are Not Set in Stone – Context Still MattersIn a previous educational article, I explained why I almost never trade breakouts on Gold.
Too many fakeouts. Too many emotional traps.
Instead, I stick to what works:
• ✅ Buying dips
• ✅ Selling rallies
But even these entries — placed with pending orders — are not automatic.
Because in real trading, price is not just a number — it’s a narrative.
And if the story changes, so should the trade.
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🎯 The Setup – Buy the Dip Around 3400
Let’s take a real example from yesterday.
In my analysis, I mentioned I would look to buy dips near 3400, a former resistance now acting as support.
Price dropped to 3405, just a few points above my pending buy at 3402.
We saw a clean initial bounce — confirming that short-term support was real.
But I missed the entry by 30 pips.
So far, so good.
But here’s the important part — what happened next changed everything.
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🧠 The Rejection Shifted the Entire Story
The bounce from 3405 was immediately sold into at 3420, a newly formed short-term resistance (clearly visible on the 15-minute posted chart).
After that, price started falling again — heading back toward my pending order.
📌 At that point, I cancelled the order. Why?
Because the context had changed:
• Bulls had tried once — and failed at 3420
• Sellers were clearly active and waiting above
• A second drop into my level wouldn’t be a clean dip — it would be retest under pressure.
The market was no longer giving me a “buy the dip” setup.
It was showing me a failed recovery. That’s a very different trade.
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💡 What If It Had Triggered?
Let’s imagine that price had hit 3402 first, triggering my order.
Then rebounded, failed at 3420, and started dropping again.
Even then, I wouldn’t hold blindly.
Once I saw the rejection at 3420, I would have understood:
The structure had shifted.
The bullish case is weakening.
Exit early — breakeven or small controlled loss.
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🔁 Sequence > Level
This is the most important principle:
• ✅ First down, then up = healthy dip → shows buyers are still in control
• ❌ First up, then down = failed breakout → shows selling pressure is stronger
Two scenarios. Same price. Opposite meaning.
That’s why you should look for:
Not just where price goes — but how it gets there.
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🔒 Pending Orders Are Conditional
Many traders treat pending orders like traps:
“Just let price come to my level, and I’m in.”, but you should refine a little
✅ Pending orders should be based on a conditional expectation
❌ Not a fixed belief that the zone must hold
If the market tells a different story, remove the order.
No ego. No drama. Just process.
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📌 Final Thought
Trading isn’t just about catching a price.
It’s about understanding price behavior.
First down, then up = strength.
First up, then down = weakness.
Let the market show its hand — then decide if you want to play.
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
GOLD → Consolidation before the next jump to 3450?FX:XAUUSD continues to rally, with the price updating its local high to 3438 and moving into consolidation, possibly for another jump...
After hitting a five-week high of $3,438, traders are taking a break. Optimism is fuelled by Trump's statements about the largest deal with Japan and negotiations with Canada, but uncertainty about the details of the agreements and political instability in Japan are keeping caution in check. The market is waiting for further signals on trade and political issues, which remain key factors for gold.
Technically, the dollar continues to fall, which generally supports gold. But! Gold is approaching strong resistance at 3445-3450, where growth may be temporarily halted.
Resistance levels: 3433, 3446
Support levels: 3416, 3401, 3375
As part of a local correction, gold may test consolidation support or 0.5-0.7f before continuing to rise. There are quite a few orders in the 3433-3446 zone, and it will be difficult to break through this area to reach the target. Consolidation before this level may help the rise to continue.
Best regards, R. Linda!
XAU/USD: Bearish Rejection at $3,432 – Short Setup in Play🔴 XAU/USD – Bearish Rejection at Key Resistance Zone ($3,432)
🔍 Technical Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) failed to break through the $3,429–$3,432 resistance zone, which aligns with a descending trendline (TL1) and prior swing high. The rejection from this confluence zone is reinforcing bearish pressure, with price now carving out lower highs on the 4H timeframe.
A clean break below $3,412 would confirm bearish continuation and open the door toward the $3,400 area, followed by the demand zone at $3,368–$3,365.
🔻 Short Setup
Entry: 3,432
Stop Loss: 3,436
Take Profit 1: 3,412
Take Profit 2: 3,396
R\:R Ratio: ≈ 1 : 6.95
Invalidation: Close above 3,436
📌 Key Levels
Resistance: 3,429 – 3,432
Support 1: 3,412
Support 2: 3,368 – 3,365
Trendline: Long-term descending resistance acting as ceiling
📘 Summary
Gold remains capped beneath a critical resistance cluster. The rejection around $3,432 could trigger a deeper pullback toward $3,396, especially if sellers push price below $3,412. Bearish bias remains valid while price holds under the trendline.
📉 Bias: Bearish
📈 Confirmation Trigger: Break below $3,412
⚠️ Invalidation Level: Above $3,436
Is Smart Money Selling Gold? A VSA LookHey Traders,
Let's take a look at the Gold (XAU/USD) 1-hour chart using Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). The price made a strong run-up to a new high around $3,438, but the volume is telling us a story of potential weakness.
Here’s a simple breakdown of what I'm seeing.
The Trap at the Top (Signs of Weakness)
Think of the market as being moved by "smart money" (professionals) and "herd money" (the crowd).
Climax Volume: See that huge volume spike right at the peak on July 23rd? While it looks like strong buying, this is often a classic sign of a Buying Climax. This is where smart money starts selling their positions to the excited crowd who are buying at the top, fearing they'll miss out.
No Real Buyers Left: After the peak, notice how the price tried to push higher a few times but on much lower volume? This is a "No Demand" signal. It’s like a car trying to rev its engine, but it's out of gas. It shows there isn't enough buying power to push the price any higher.
Sellers Take Control: As the price started to fall from the top, look at the volume on the down bars. It got bigger. This tells us that supply (selling pressure) is now in control, and they are pushing the price down with force.
Where Are We Now?
The price has dropped and is now hovering around the $3,330 area. The volume has dried up for now, which means the market is taking a pause and deciding where to go next.
What to Watch For Next
Based on the VSA story, here are two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Bearish 📉): The weakness continues. If we see the price try to rally from here but the volume is very low, it would be another major red flag. It would suggest sellers are still in control, and we could see a break below the recent low of $3,320 for another leg down.
Scenario 2 (Bullish 📈): This is a bear trap. For this to happen, we would need to see a strong sign of buying returning. For example, a sharp drop on massive volume that is quickly bought back up. This would signal that the sellers have been absorbed and smart money is starting to buy again.
Conclusion:
For now, the evidence points more towards weakness. The action at the top suggests that smart money was distributing (selling) their gold.
Key Takeaway: Be cautious of any weak-looking bounces. The sellers appear to have the upper hand until we see a clear sign of strength with high buying volume.
This is not financial advice. This is just my interpretation of the chart using VSA. Always do your own research and manage your risk. Good luck trading!
Gold price analysis July 25Gold Analysis – D1 Uptrend Still Maintains, But Needs New Momentum
Yesterday’s trading session recorded a D1 candle closing above the Breakout 3363 zone, indicating that buying power in the US session is still dominant. This implies that the uptrend is still being maintained, although the market may need a short-term technical correction.
In today’s Tokyo and London sessions, there is a possibility of liquidity sweeps to the support zone below before Gold recovers and increases again in the New York session.
Important to note:
The uptrend will only be broken if Gold closes below the 3345 zone on the D1 chart.
In this case, the 3320 level will be the next support zone to observe the price reaction and consider buying points.
For the bullish wave to continue expanding towards the historical peak (ATH) at 3500, the market needs stronger supporting factors, which can come from economic data or geopolitical developments.
📌 Support zone: 3345 – 3320
📌 Resistance zone: 3373 – 3418
🎯 Potential buy zone:
3345 (prioritize price reaction in this zone)
3320 (in case of breaking through 3345)
🎯 Target: 3417
Bullish bounce off major support?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,365.44
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,322.77
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 3,451.43
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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GOLD (XAU/USD) SHORT TRADE PLAN
July 25, 2025
Trade Overview (My setup)
- Direction: Short (SELL)
- Entry Price: $3,330
- Take-Profit: $3,270
- Stop-Loss: $3,370
- Lot Size: 0.18 lots (18 oz)
- Risk: $720
- Reward: $1,080
- Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.5 : 1
Technical Analysis Supporting the Bearish Bias
1. Price Structure & Trend
- Descending channel observed on the 4H chart - strong short-term bearish signal.
- Series of lower highs and lower lows confirms bearish trend.
- Price is testing $3,325-$3,300 support - breakdown opens downside to $3,270-$3,250.
2. Key Support/Resistance Zones
- Key support: $3,300 being tested.
- Resistance: $3,360-$3,370 zone - logical stop-loss location.
3. Indicator Confirmations
RSI (4H): ~35-40, bearish territory, no bullish divergence.
Moving Averages: Price below 50 EMA and 200 EMA - bearish crossover.
MACD: Bearish crossover, histogram confirms selling momentum.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bullish Move Ahead?!
I think that Gold is going to rise soon.
The price is now entering a strong demand area
based on a horizontal support and a rising trend line.
The price may pull back to 3376 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD – The assassin returnsGold is showing a weak reaction around the 3,375 zone — a previous supply area — with RSI dipping into oversold territory but failing to bounce significantly. The chart reveals layered FVG traps, hinting at a potential -1.5% drop toward 3,324 within the next 18 hours.
Bearish catalyst: The U.S. jobless claims have dropped to a 3-month low → labor market remains strong → Fed likely to keep interest rates high → stronger USD, weaker gold.
Preferred setup:
SELL if price gets rejected at 3,375
SL: 3,390
TP: 3,324 – 3,310
July 25, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary:
The downtrend continues, with 3350 providing some support — though not strong enough to indicate a solid reversal. Watch for a retest of this level; if 3350 breaks, bearish momentum may resume. For now, price is ranging between 3365–3375. Continue to trade the range with a sell-high, buy-low mindset.
• Break below 3365 → look to short on pullbacks.
• Break above 3375 → switch to buying on dips.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3434 – Resistance
• 3420 – Resistance
• 3405 – Key resistance
• 3400 – Psychological level
• 3384 – Resistance
• 3375 – Key resistance
• 3364 – Support
• 3358 – Support
• 3345 – Strong support
• 3336 – Support
• 3330 – Support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
• SELL if price breaks below 3365 → target 3362, then 3358, 3351, 3345
• BUY if price holds above 3375 → target 3380, then 3385, 3390, 3396
👉 If you find this helpful or traded using this plan, a like would mean a lot and keep me motivated. Thanks for the support!
Disclaimer: This is my personal view, not financial advice. Always use proper risk control.
GOLD-SELL strategy 3 hourly chartGOLD has been positive due to crypto buoyant state of mind. These are very overbought, even though we see each day a higher price, it only means the correction will become very severe, is my person al viewpoint.
Gold techs are starting to become negative, and I feel we should move lower towards $ 3,300 > 3,240 area over-time.
Strategy SELL @ $ 3,385-3,425 and take profit in stages near $ 3,325 - $ 3,247 for now.
Completion of rising wedge Gold is currently still holding rising channel along with the swing moves we were on buy at 3410 and my optimal target was 3425-3430 which is achieved now I'm expecting the reversal move!!
What's possible scanarios we have?
▪️I'm looking for sell opportunity from 3430-3435 area by following our structural strategy, also we have previous moves on Rising channel, market always respect its prevoius BOS and my Selling trade target will be 3405 then 3395 in extension.
▪️if H4 candle closing above 3435-3438 this Parallel moves will be invalid.
Gold 1H - Retest of channel & support zone at 3340After breaking out of the falling channel, gold is currently retesting its upper boundary — now acting as support. The 3340 zone is particularly important as it aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level and high volume node on the visible range volume profile. The price action suggests a potential bullish rejection from this area. With both the 50 and 200 EMA below price on the 1H, the short-term trend remains bullish. The 4H trendline further supports this setup. RSI is cooling off near the neutral zone, leaving room for another leg higher toward the 3377 resistance zone. If 3340 fails, 3324 (0.786 Fibo) becomes the next line of defense. Until then, the structure remains bullish following the successful breakout and retest of the channel.