USD/HUF - (massive) Long; Highest conviction trade since 2020!This is a no-holds-bared, unmitigated, lock-and-load - and do it now! -, scenario. It does not get any easier than this, not even in the EUR/USD.
The Hungarian Forint is staring at a massacre, with immediate effect.
(... despite the fact that I applaud Victor Orban, the Hungarian Prime. Nevertheless, he has nothing left to work with. Simultaneously, he (still) is public enemy #1 for the EU - as member states go -, as well as in the eyes of the Biden administration. Now, the only remaining friendly country to Hungary, in Europe, is the Vatican. Orban courageously fought the good fight, all along, but, at least economically: "It's been nice signing with you Koko but ..." - It's over.)
p.s. Everything the western media had been spewing about Orban for the past 12 years lacks a single iota of truth. - Bet on it! The guy won 3 democratic elections with 2/3 majority which, even the communist slime-run EU, was forced to admit.
I will forgo the long version here and provide in lead words what matters here;
- Hungary is a tiny economy (10 million people), one of the smallest EU members; (IBordering with Ukraine and taking in the second largest number of Ukrainian refugees - after Poland - while the Kyiv continues to prosecute it's large, Hungarian minority.)
- They built the first wall on their southern border, which the EU never paid for - as they remain obligated to do so but likely never will;
- Hungary is 72% agricultural, lacking any and all energy (or other, primary) resources. E.g. It is 100% dependent on Russian energy - regardless how it gets there (indirectly from Russia at a major markup, very likely in the near future.)
- Hungary categorically refuses to support the EU madness or to go along with US demands to join the fight for the Ukraine ; (Orban is no friend of Putin but he is also unwilling to crater Hungary's economy on a US/EU whim.)
- The Hungarian National Bank recently spent a significant portion of it's reserves to buy gold. The unfolding USD rally will likely temper any related enthusiasm;
- The EU is currently (punitively) the portion of EU funds due to Hungary for fiscal 2023;
-The Biden administration recently made it a point to go after Hungary (Orban specifically) "to enhance a regime change". (Wasn't that illegal, at least on paper? ...)
- Sunday's State of the Union by Orban is a potential call to arms in the West.
(One could write a book but) Long story short: The combined Western Alliance is about to lean into Hungary which is most unlikely to result in any economic, monetary or any other, miscellaneous national - or monetary - benefits.
Bottom line: There is blood in the water here so, start taking very big bites! - Long!
HUFUSD trade ideas
USDHUF breakout after retrace to resistance zone - am I correct?Hey guys, I'm new here, but just wanted to confirm some of my recently learned knowledge. Based on the first kiss (Naked Forex) principle, I went back on the charts and found this pattern on US dollar v Hungarian Forint.
I noticed that between the 28th of April and the 18th of May, this pair was consolidating. A very strong support and resistance zone was created with a few touches at the top and bottom of the zone.
When it finally broke out, you could see it touched (last kissed) the top of the zone, and then continued the uptrend, like the first fakeout made it seem to be.
Don't know how deep the last kiss can be in the zone, but I think this is kinda the right signal for a long. (Which I didn't take, because I retraced it in the past)
Do you guys agree? And if not, what could I have missed that could be of importance in my next trades? Thanks!
Jasper
USDHUF (short scalp)Probability: ~41%
Aggressive entry info:
Entry: 358.551 // OANDA Feed
Stop loss 358.786 /// OANDA Feed
Take profit 1: 353.319 Risk to Reward: 23
Take profit 2:352.330
Conservative /ideal entry info:
Entry: 360.396// OANDA Feed
Stop loss 360.988/ OANDA Feed
Take profit 1: 353.319 Risk to Reward: 15
Take profit 2:352.330
Take profit 3: 337.830 RR: 6.2%
Precision of entry: Medium / Low
Additional comments: If sellers fail then buyers will take the price to 367.330 and ultimately to 369.733 (price will follow the red scenario/arrow highlighted on chart)
Note: setup will be invalid if target 1 is achieved before the setup is triggered
Probability of a 4% long straddle from current price >50%
USDHUF - How to play the dollar long ?One vehicle how you can short or long the dollar is the USDHUF.
The USDHUF mirrors the DXY moves pretty well.
Though watching the FIB retracement we are at no man's land : the Fibonacci 61,8% is still 10 HUF away:
we have important levels at 354.738, 352.993, and 351.248.
I don't think price will break these levels at the first try. If we can bounce from here price will tag the 50 EMA and 200 EMA at 378-380.
USDHUF Swing Price Analysis Long 1MThis is a price prediction for USDHUF pair on monthly chart. The price retrace to the monthly orderblock then it will push to the upside from cca.320. If it makes a new swing high(break of market structure) the bullish trend can continue, if not(fails to create a new higher high), a swing market shift will happen.
USD HUF Good morning to everyone and Happy New Year!
As you can see we are investigating the USD/HUF.
I strongly suggest you finish your short position on USD due to the fact that technically and also fundamentally we HUF went way ahead way too fast under the current circumstances.
We are looking for the dollar will get stronger and we will retest the 400 levers in the next 2-3 weeks
Thank You - ELGatoTrade
USDHUF Buy after re-tap of PWL.OANDA:USDHUF
Price has been funneling hard. It did a brilliant move to downside for a false breakout which took out all buy-side liquidity. Watching for price to tap PWL before making a move upside to take out all sell-side liquidity as all buy-side has been exhausted.