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WBS1! trade ideas

Oil | Long | Smart Money Accumulation | (June 2025)Oil | Long | Geopolitical Conflict & Smart Money Accumulation | (June 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: We're watching a long-term bullish setup in crude oil, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, smart money accumulation, and a potential reclaim of key levels from a historic triangle pattern. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: LongEntry: Watching for a reclaim of the $72 level (re-entry into triangle zone)Stop Loss: $62 (just below the recent liquidation zone) TP1: $106 TP2: $116 TP3: $123 3️⃣ Key Notes: This setup originates from a macro triangle structure formed since September 2012. Oil broke out post-2020 and surged, but recent volatility has shaken out many long positions—especially those from around $60.8. A reclaim of $72 would indicate a failed auction and potential continuation higher. Geopolitical instability—particularly in the Middle East—continues to provide bullish tailwinds. JPMorgan has projected potential upside targets as high as $230 if tensions escalate. The Volatility Index (VIX) is around 19, suggesting a calm market—often a precursor to strong directional moves. Smart money seems to be stepping in, accumulating positions during dips. ✅ This confluence makes oil a compelling candidate for macro upside, especially if global uncertainty deepens. 4️⃣ Optional Follow-up Note: If the setup confirms, I’ll update this idea with revised targets and entry levels. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments—they’ll be key triggers. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by Risk_Adj_Return
Crude Oil - Two Scenarios and about Brain PowerPrice retests the L-MLH. VI. - Price breaks upward, target is the centerline VII. - Price reverses again, then the target is the 1/4 line, with a subsequent extended target at the red centerline, and possibly even lower at the white dashed warning line. On a personal note: I was once again told that the price didn’t do what I had projected. ...yeah, really, that’s how it is §8-) After over 30 years in the markets and hundreds of coaching sessions, I’m still amazed that people think you can predict price movements as if with a magic crystal ball. The fact that this belief still persists (even though they don’t understand even the absolute basics of trading) deeply concerns me at the core of my trading soul. Because this growing irrationality clearly indicates that far too little is being done in terms of education – or humanity might simply go extinct in the next 100 years due to rapidly declining intelligence! ...maybe I should just create a chart and apply a few median lines/forks? Happy trading to all of you and I pray for those with lesser brain power.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
Oil Price Approaches April HighThe price of oil may further retrace the decline from the April high ($71.16) as it continues to carve a series of higher highs and lows, and a move above 70 in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is likely to be accompanied by a further advance in crude like the price action from earlier this year. In turn, a break/close above the $70.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $71.90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone may push the price of oil toward the February high ($73.84), with the next area of interest coming in around $76.00 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to $77.20 (50% Fibonacci retracement). At the same time, lack of momentum to test the April high ($71.16) may keep the RSI out of overbought territory but need a move below the $64.20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to bring the monthly low ($61.06) on the radar. --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
CRUDE OIL: 12 JUNE, 2025 - BOTTOM AND TAKE OFF!?Conclusion: The ABC)-orange correction may have just completed, and a five-wave is pushing much higher, targeting the nearest target at the high around 94.19 or 130.50. Details: Since the high of 130.50, a decline with A,B,C)-orange has unfolded as a Zigzag. I counted a five-wave within the A)-orange, and a triangle within the B)-orange, and finally the C)-orange has completed as a five-wave. So, perhaps that ABC has ended with convincing evidence. So crude oil is likely to rise in the medium term, even though the alternative scenarios with relatively high probability in another development also show increasing bullish weight. And it is aiming for the nearest target at 94.19. While price must always remain above 55.30 to keep the Bullish market view valid.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ShaneHua
Chart Pattern Analysis Of CL1! There are 4 candles close upon the neckline of a potential bullish triangle pattern, It seems that another bull run will start here. I am expecting an accelerate motive wave to touch or break up the nearest higher high at about 72USD. On the other hand, If K5 couldn’t close upon K4 to verify the strong bullish momentum, It is also possible that a short-term consolidation will carry on from K3. If the following candles successfully retest the downtrend line after a successful break up, It is also a good place to buy it then. Long-65.4/Stop-64.4/Target-72
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by nothingchangehere
#202523 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Time to be very cautious as a bear and hopeful as a bull. 3 clear legs down and the third could not make a new low. Now the market closed at the weekly high and it’s a fitting place for a reversal. 65 should be the highest bears should allow it. If bulls get follow-through beyond, this is a buy with stop 59.5. The target above 65 is obviously 70 and maybe even the bigger bear trend line around 73. current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range key levels: 59 - 65 bull case: Bulls got their first daily close above the weekly20 ema since February. Bears tried to get the market below 60 but failed to keep it below - 3 times now since April. Markets will try one thing only so much until they try something else. 65 is the next target which will likely get hit early next week but I expect a bit more sideways until one side clearly gives up. Technically this is a double bottom April/May lows and now a higher low and bulls want to get the major trend reversal. Invalidation is below 65.5 bear case: Bears are hopeful that the bear wedge is still enough resistance that we test down to 60 but they need a strong reversal below 65 to make it happen and when a weekly bar closes at the very high, it’s probably not a good time to be a bear. Best bears can hope for here is to stay below 65 and continue inside the current range 60-65. Invalidation is above 65.5 short term: Bullish. I think a bull breakout is much more likely than hitting 60 again. Buying 64.58 with a stop 59.5 is likely a decent trade already. Confirmation for the breakout is 65.5ish. medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-08: Market finds no acceptance below 60 since 2021 and now we have 3 clear legs down, a higher low and a breakout above prior high with a weekly close at the highs and the weekly 20ema. This is likely as good of a swing long as you can get.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
1
Crude Oil Stuck in Consolidation Watch for Breakout! Hey Traders so today was looking at oil market seems to be stuck in a very powerful pattern called the Narrow Sideways Channel. Basically market has been going no where for the last 75 days stuck between the highs and the lows moving back and forth moving sideways. Most traders have probably fallen alseep because this market is boring as watching paint dry just stuck in a range of $55-$65. I guess some traders can trade the range buy at the bottom or the channel sell near the top but imo the best way to trade is wait for a breakout of the channel. Now if you research historical sideways channels or range markets you will find that almost every market that has ever traded sideways for more than 90 days or more led to an explosive breakout at one point in time! Finally exciting news! That means the longer it consolidates the better for us traders to catch the breakout. So if we look closely at the chart we can see right out of the channel top there is resistance ahead at $68. However if market can break above $68 and close above that level at the daily close that would be a serious buy signal for more upside. But don't go by intraday go by the close of the day intraday means nothing imo. The Daily Close it all that counts! So watch for breakout above $68 then look to buy on pullback if I does not break above $68 tje we are back to watching paint dry. 😂 Always use Risk Management! (Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheIndex
HMMMCL1! Crude Oil Futures – 1D & 4H Technical Breakdown by GOAT This chart presents a comprehensive multi-timeframe analysis of NYMEX Crude Oil Futures (CL1!), utilizing daily and 4-hour views to outline key technical levels, trend momentum, and potential trade setups. 🟤 Left Panel – CL1! Daily Chart (1D): Macro Resistance Test: Price is retesting a major descending trendline from the 2022 highs, now acting as a key long-term resistance zone between 75.80–77.00. Breakout Structure: A strong push from the $62.50 base has created a steep rally, with price entering a historically reactive supply zone. Rejection Risk: Highlighted red box signals a high-probability reversal zone unless price confirms a clean breakout above trendline resistance. RSI Observation: Daily RSI near overbought levels (~78), reflecting possible exhaustion and signaling caution for bulls. 🟠 Right Panel – CL1! Intraday Chart (4H): EMA Structure: Price riding the 21/50/100 EMA cluster with trend confirmation—momentum remains bullish but flattening. Channel & Pullback Setup: Short-term ascending trendline may act as a bounce point. Failure could shift price toward 71.30 or lower. Divergence Watch: Bearish RSI divergence forming, suggesting weakening momentum on recent highs. Trade Zone: Boxed region shows a potential long setup targeting the 75.80–77.00 area with a stop below 71.30, giving a clear R:R window. 📉 RSI Panels: Daily RSI: Approaching historical overbought levels. Traders should watch for momentum reversal or confirmation through trend continuation. 4H RSI: Divergence vs price highs and loss of recent bullish slope could foreshadow a short-term correction. 🧠 Summary: Crude oil is at a critical confluence zone, testing a macro trendline on the daily and showing slowing momentum intraday. Price action over the next few candles will likely determine whether we see a breakout continuation toward 80+ or a rejection back toward the mid-60s. ⚙️ Educational chart designed for technical traders – not financial advice.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by goat-farm
WTI(20250620)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, and the voting ratio showed that internal differences were increasing. Traders expect the bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points this year. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 74.33 Support and resistance levels: 77.40 76.25 75.51 73.15 72.40 71.26 Trading strategy: If it breaks through 73.15, consider buying, and the first target price is 75.00 If it breaks through 72.40, consider selling, and the first target price is 71.26
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has been strong recently, and it is also because of the support of fundamentals and inventory data that crude oil has begun to strengthen. Today's idea is still bullish on crude oil. Continue to buy after the retracement. The daily moving average has begun to diverge. The small support for buying has reached around 72.00. The suppression position is around 74.00 and 77.60. I estimate that it will form a small shock and then break through and rise again. If it does not break 70.00, it is still strong. Buy crude oil around 74.00 today. Fundamental analysis: The interest rate results announced by the Federal Reserve last night remained unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, and the fourth consecutive meeting remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The uncertainty of the United States about the future has led to no major changes in monetary policy in the near future. Operational suggestions Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude Oil Pushing Into Supply Zone — Watching for Breakout or ReCrude Oil (CL) has been trending strongly bullish today — price is now testing the red supply zone overhead. I am watching very closely: ✅ If buyers can break this zone with strong momentum, I will look for a breakout continuation trade to ride the trend higher. ✅ If buyers get trapped and order flow shifts bearish inside this zone, I will look for a short opportunity targeting the green demand zone below. Important: I always study buyer and seller behavior inside the zones first — no blind trades! I also use order flow tools to catch traps and spot aggressive traders on the wrong side of the move. Patience first — waiting for the zone to tell me what to do. ✅
NYMEX:CL1!
by prolivetrader
WTI(20250619)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Fed's June meeting - kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in a row, and the dot plot showed two rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expected no rate cuts this year rose to 7, and the rate cut expectations for next year were cut to 1. Powell continued to call for uncertainty, and the current economic situation is suitable for waiting and watching. He also expects tariff-driven inflation to rise in the coming months. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 72.69 Support and resistance levels: 75.60 74.51 73.81 71.58 70.88 69.79 Trading strategy: Upward breakthrough of 73.81, consider entering the market to buy, the first target price is 74.51 Downward breakthrough of 72.69, consider entering the market to sell, the first target price is 71.58
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude Oil Futures: Navigating Geopolitical Risk and VolatilityMarket Context: NYMEX:CL1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT:ZN1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! CME:6E1! Implied volatility (IV) in the front weeks (1W and 2W) is elevated, and the futures curve is in steep backwardation. This indicates heightened short-term uncertainty tied to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East involving Iran and Israel. The forward curve, however, suggests the market is not fully pricing in sustained or escalating conflict. We evaluate three possible geopolitical scenarios and their implications for the Crude Oil Futures market: Scenario 1: Ceasefire Within 1–2 Weeks • Market Implication: Short-term geopolitical premium deflates. • Strategy: Short front-month / Long deferred-month crude oil calendar spread. o This position benefits from a reversion in front-month prices once the risk premium collapses, while deferred months—already pricing more stable conditions—remain anchored. o Risk: If the ceasefire fails to materialize within this narrow window, front-month prices could spike further, causing losses. Scenario 2: Prolonged War of Attrition (No Ceasefire, Ongoing Missile and Air War) • Market Implication: Front-end volatility may ease slightly but remain elevated; deferred contracts may begin to price in more geopolitical risk. • Strategy: Long back-month crude oil futures. o The market is currently underpricing forward-looking risk premiums. A persistent conflict, even without full-scale escalation, may eventually force the market to adjust deferred pricing upward. o Risk: Time decay and roll costs. Requires a longer holding horizon and conviction that the situation remains unresolved and volatile. Scenario 3: Full-Scale Regional War • Market Implication: Severe market dislocation, illiquidity, potential for capital flight, and broad-based risk-off sentiment across global assets. • Strategy: Avoid initiating directional exposure in crude. Focus on risk management and capital preservation. o In this tail-risk scenario, crude oil could spike sharply, but slippage, execution risk, and potential exchange halts or liquidity freezes make it unsuitable for new exposure. o Alternative Focus: Allocate to volatility strategies, defensive hedging (e.g., long Gold, long VIX futures), and cash equivalents. o Risk: Sudden market shutdowns or gaps may make exit strategies difficult to execute. Broader Portfolio Considerations Given the crude oil dynamics, there are knock-on effects across other markets: • Gold Futures: Flight-to-safety bid in Scenarios 2 and 3. Long positioning in Gold (spot or near-month futures) with defined stop-loss levels is prudent as a hedge. • Equity Index Futures (E-mini Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500): Vulnerable to risk-off flows in Scenarios 2 and 3. Consider long volatility (VIX calls or long VX futures) or equity index puts as portfolio hedges. In Scenario 1, equities could rally on resolution optimism—especially growth-heavy Nasdaq. • Currency Futures: USD likely to strengthen as a safe haven in Scenarios 2 and 3. Consider long positions in Dollar and Short 6E futures. • Bond Futures: Risk-off flows theoretically should support Treasuries in Scenarios 2 and 3. Long positions in 10Y or 30Y Treasury futures could serve as a defensive allocation. Yields may retrace sharply lower if escalation intensifies. However, given the current paradigm shift with elevated yields, higher for longer rates and long end remaining high, we would not bet too heavily on Bond futures to act as safe haven. Instead, inflows in Gold, strengthening of Chinese Yuan and Bitcoin will be key to monitor here. Scenario-based planning is essential when markets are pricing geopolitical risk in a non-linear fashion. Crude oil currently reflects a consensus expectation of de-escalation (Scenario 1), which opens the door for relative value and mean-reversion strategies in the front-end of the curve. However, given the asymmetric risks in Scenarios 2 and 3, prudent exposure management, optionality-based hedges, and a flexible risk framework are imperative. A diversified playbook; leveraging volatility structures, calendar spreads, and cross-asset hedges offers the best path to opportunity while managing downside risk.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00Crude oil market analysis: We still buy crude oil in the recent daily line, but yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big negative line. Short-term crude oil is about to start repairing. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. Crude oil follows the long-term trend. In addition, the war between Iran and Israel is a long-term support for crude oil purchases. If the situation escalates, crude oil may easily stand above the 100 mark in the later period. Consider buying crude oil at 71.00 today. Fundamental analysis: Yesterday, Iran and Israel began to bomb each other again, and the situation began to escalate. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025🛢️ CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025 🎯 Instrument: CL (Crude Oil Futures) 📉 Strategy: Short Swing 📅 Entry Timing: Market Open 📈 Confidence: 68% 🔍 Model Insights Recap 🧠 Grok/xAI – Bearish due to overbought RSI + price stalling near MAs 🤖 Claude/Anthropic – Bearish pullback expected, despite recent strength 📊 Llama/Meta – Overextended Bollinger Band + RSI = short bias 🧬 DeepSeek – Supports downside via divergence + high volatility ⚠️ Gemini/Google – Bullish thesis based on momentum; diverges from consensus 📉 Consensus Takeaway While short-term momentum is strong, most models forecast a pullback due to: 🔼 Overbought RSI readings 📈 Price extended well above key moving averages 🧨 High volatility and profit-taking zone near $73–$74 ✅ Recommended Trade Setup Metric Value 🔀 Direction Short 🎯 Entry Price $72.65 🛑 Stop Loss $74.20 🎯 Take Profit $68.80 📏 Size 1 contract 📈 Confidence 68% ⏰ Timing Market Open ⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations 🌍 Geopolitical events or OPEC news can cause unexpected surges 📉 If bullish momentum resumes, upside breakout could invalidate short thesis 📏 Risk management is critical—stick to stop-loss if price breaks above $74.20 🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) json Copy Edit { "instrument": "CL", "direction": "short", "entry_price": 72.65, "stop_loss": 74.20, "take_profit": 68.80, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.68, "entry_timing": "market_open" } 💡 Watch price action at the open. If oil opens weak or fails to reclaim $73, this short setup has a strong edge.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantsignals
WTI(20250617)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Revised version of the Republican tax cut bill in the US Senate: It is planned to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion, and the overall framework is consistent with the House version. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 70.41 Support and resistance levels: 75.98 73.90 72.55 68.27 66.92 64.84 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 72.55, consider buying, and the first target price is 73.90 If the price breaks through 70.41, consider selling, and the first target price is 68.27
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NuggetsWarriors
WTI(20250616)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with all its strength on an unprecedented scale." Iran and Israel should reach an agreement. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 71.11 Support and resistance levels: 78.59 75.79 73.98 68.24 66.43 63.64 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 73.98, consider buying in, the first target price is 75.79 If the price breaks through 71.11, consider selling in, the first target price is 68.24
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors