DXY trade ideas
Possibility of uptrend It is expected that after some fluctuation and correction in the support area, a trend change will take place and we will witness the start of an upward trend. A break of the green resistance area will be a confirmation of the upward trend. Otherwise, the continuation of the corrective trend to the support areas will be possible.
DXY Asia delivery to London Delivery Analysis DXY
Asia delivery to London Delivery Analysis
JUNE 10 FRAMEWORK
*Monday was a sell off
*Current range is premium
*Previous range is a discount
*Minor buy side taken in dealer range
*Sell side liquidity was taken at open of Asia
Is today a raid the equal lows and a buy day?
*Asia expanded rallied to equal highs
*Retraced to the session .618 and consolidated
*Previous session discount coming into London
*I suspect that dxy might make a high of the week today and attack the major buy side
Great analysis and great delivery. This is builds my confidence. Where I struggle to trust it when it comes time to react and make the trade I see rather than the noise I get stuck in.
Very happy price played out to the Asia expansion and the highs I felt at 5 am I suspected for price to take. Celebrate what you can and keep going.
Dollar - Still going for TargetAs mentioned in the video on Friday 2 min before NFP. We could run higher on the dollar and i didnt want it to take out the 4 hour candle as shown here.
Go back and see the video for reference. Link below
We should head towards the Target now and im still bearish dollar. Very Bearish
Eur, Gbp & DXY Dynamics: We have reached fair valueWith equilibrium being established we are stuck in an internal liquidity range. We do expect the trending targets to be hit although we are seeing a preliminary shift in structure.
If there was anything I missed in this analysis please let me know. Share this with anyone who may be interested 🙏🏾
DXY next trading set upHi traders I decided to share with you DXY n next possible move that can take place anytime as you can see we've been dropping and it's most about time for recovery in order to simple follow my set up don't play short games and be controlled by small move that's why you fail,you cant come with H1 N H4 analysis while am showing a big picture of the trend the reason why I don't loose trade easily is because I follow right trend not spikes or short move,that's why I laugh sometimes wen I see horrible graphs in short time frames but I've realized that they cant see what am seeing and I must just leave them in peace until they understand how market moves,I did 5 ninets n 25 minets all less than daily but they always wrong n just change meaning they are weak n fake, real shit daily n weekly you are following right trend the only way is to generate liquidity into position and they will give you right point of your entries,if you are addicted into gambling it might take you years to realize how easy it is to follow the trend,first identify the trend you want to trade know if it's uptrend or down trend or range check how it moves in bigger time frame,am not gonna entertain 5 minets trade while am using weekly n monthly time frame we are not seeing the samething,just start to position yourselfs from here until 96 if possible but is likely to gain in few days but that double buttom it looks nasty n not strong soo a bit manipulation n you'll see dxy raising again this is not a gambling my friends were you get money by mistakes you get it by knowing how to follow the system I wish you all profitable week,I will never give you entries soo that you can learn to generate liquidity into positions I do not control the market soo telling you straight point what if market won't reach those point it's useless,soo best is to shows point of interest you counter them n jump in why should I supposed to lie n talk many things that it won't even happen lols,traders I wishy you all the best n profitable week be blessed.
Skeptic | This Week's Most Profitable Setups: Gold, Forex & SPX!hey, traders, it’s Skeptic ! 😎 Our last watchlist was straight fire, racking up some sweet profits with tons of setups. This week’s looking just as juicy, so stick with me to catch these killer opportunities! 🚖 Welcome to my Weekly Watchlist, where I lay out the markets I’m trading with active triggers—forex pairs, commodities, and CFD indices. No FOMO, no hype, just pure reasoning to keep your trades sharp. Let’s jump in! 📊
DXY (Dollar Index)
Let’s kick off with DXY, ‘cause getting this right makes analyzing other indices and pairs a breeze. After multiple failed attempts to break support at 98.8 , it’s still ranging. This is a monthly support, so confirmation of a break needs to come on a monthly or at least weekly chart. Personally, I’m betting it’ll bounce from here. A break above 99.36 gives early confirmation of a rise, but the real deal is breaking resistance at 100 —then you can short USD pairs like EUR/USD . If 98.8 gives way, look for longs, but this monthly zone is tough, so expect some chop! 😬
EURX
EURX seems to be in a weak upward channel. A break above 1063 could push us to 1071 . On the flip side, breaking the channel’s midline at 1058 might drag us to the floor or even support at 1049 . So, our EURX game plan is clear.
Watchlist Breakdown
Let’s hit the watchlist, starting with XAU/USD (Gold ).
Triggers here are tricky, but I cloned last week’s downward channel and placed it above—this trick often gives us solid setups. If we bounce off the channel’s floor, a break above resistance at 3340 opens a long. For shorts, I don’t have a trigger yet since the market’s already dumped. If we form a 1-hour range, a break below its floor could trigger a short targeting 3249 or the previous channel’s midline.
Now, XAG/USD (Silver)
—no triggers this week. Our long trigger from last week’s analysis at 33.68 smashed it, spiking 8%! 🎉 That’s a lock even Bitcoin traders would drool over, but in Skeptic Lab :)
Next, EUR/USD.
The long trigger is set at a break above resistance at 1.14555 , which lines up with the DXY support break I mentioned. Heads-up: this trade won’t be easy. Reduce risk ‘cause we’re in for a big fight at this level—wild swings and tight stop losses get hunted fast. Stay sharp! 😤
GBP/USD Update
My GBP/USD long got stopped out, so let’s break it down. I went long after a resistance break, with crazy uptrend momentum and RSI hitting overbought (which I see as a long confirmation). Everything looked dope except my stop loss placement. The prior move was so sharp that my stop had to be wide, tanking my R/R. It hit the box ceiling target but then dumped, nailing my stop. Lesson? Either jump in before the main momentum or let the move play out and skip it. Mid-move entries with big stops? Recipe for pain...
SPX 500
Our SPX 500 long trigger from breaking the box ceiling already fired and seems to have pulled back. My target’s 6128.55 , and my open position has a stop loss below 5952.51. If you missed last week’s trade, a new trigger could be a 1-hour resistance break at 6014.20 . If you’re already long, no need to double up.
Final Note
my max risk per trade is 1%, and I suggest you stick to that or lower. I’m cooking up a Money management guide soon, diving deep into why it’s the key to outpacing 90% of traders and boosting your odds of consistent profits. Stay tuned! 🚨 No FOMO, and have an awesome week!
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this watchlist lit a spark, hit that boost—it means a ton! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for rolling with me—keep trading smart! ✌️
DXY NPF delivery and Week Ahead IdeasDXY NPF delivery and Week Ahead Ideas
F DELIVERY RETRACE
Sell side taken expected buy day to which price delivered
*20:00 expands from equilibrium to minor buy side
*22:40 judus swing fake to the down side
*0:00 expands to session equal highs, previous session equal highs, and FVG
*5:00 small retrace
*7:30 expansion to take equal highs liquidity
*8:30 ND sell side and buy side scoop
*8:35 expansion to buy side
*small retrace
*9:00 expansion to buy side take buy side liquidity
*10:00 silver bullet retraces to .70 taking session equal lows
*10:30 reverses to buy side and rebalance a FVG
consolidates
*11:20 retraces to .618 bounces off
consolidates on the 50
*1:00 expansion and then a back and forth as price moves narrowly into a consolidation to close NY
JUNE 9 Ideas
*Price takes key equal highs in NY
*Parent bias is bear -this week bias is looking for higher prices over all
*possible target for the week is the 50 at price 99.474
*Price is delivering to a premium previous session
*I would expect an expansion to seek sell side liquidity in noted equal lows Monday’s delivering, if Sunday consolidates?
I will watch for reactions at the session 50 just below the equal lows and go from there.
Remember this can all change with Sundays delivery.
DOLLARImpact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions
Key Data Points
Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K).
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts).
Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected).
Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%).
Fed Policy Implications
Labor Market Cooling but Resilient:
Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration.
Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum.
Inflation Concerns Persist:
Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors.
Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices.
Fed’s Balancing Act:
Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness.
Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical).
Market Impact
DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction.
Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening.
Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals.
Summary:
No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing.
DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release.
stay cautious
#gold #DOLLAR
US Dollar Analysis - by MMFX This is not a prediction, it never is.
My bullish anticipation on the instrument is rooted from many catalyst of course, though the proof of the pudding is communicated on the charts itself.
I zero in on the Weekly to Day bias on price action looking for: Market Structure, Inducement, CISD, Candle Stick Patterns, Voids/Gaps, SMT, Liquidity Sweeps, Bullish ChoCH, BOS, etc.
On the 4H - 30M scope i look to refine and define the narrative.
Monitoring fundamentals & lending rates on the global and domestic scale I pair this with
barometers related to the index such as Treasury's, GOLD and other securities to identify if my Bullish suspicions are true..
Thank you.
Just got the May NFPs... Let's have a lookWe just received the May NFPs, which, overall, are not bad. Let's dig in.
TVC:DXY
TVC:DJI
FX_IDC:USDJPY
FX_IDC:USDCAD TVC:GOLD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
DXY June 6 Over all notesDXY
June 6
Over all notes
Parent bias is bear
Discount range current/previous
MONDAY-EXPANSION
*Expands to equal lows
TUESDAY REVERSAL
*gaps lower
*Rally to retrace
*Creates equal highs
WEDNESDAY REVERSAL-CONSOLDATION
*Gaps lower
* takes equal highs
*Expands lower creates equal lows
THURSDAY CONSOLIDATION-EXPANSION
*Asia retrace to minor buy side, taps a bearish order block, CE of hourly FVG
*London 2 macro expansion sell off
*classic 7 macro retrace fake out
*NY 8 macro ND Price expands to target of the week equal lows
*NY 10 macro SILVER BULLET reversal
*Consolidation
*dealers range retraces to 50 level
F DELIVERY RETRACE
Sell side taken expected buy day
*Asia on the 50 level previous session-sign that price is seeking buy side liquidity
*20:00 expands buy side
TAKE AWAYS- REMEMBER THIS
Parent bias is KING
*4 hour is bias and order flow
*1 hour confirm cycle where price has delivered to and what liquidity taken
*5 equal lows/highs and candle formations
TRADE CHECKLIST
confirming bias, direction, liquidity taken, previous session fib levels, and time of day are the keys
In hindsight price delivered perfectly to a equilibrium to premium logic, back tested logic for direction on Wednesday, Thursdays speculation for new driver. Wow it must be random ICT 2022 model
Highly likely the DXY goes down.Trading the DXY increase in 2022 was my best trade of that year. Specifically on the USD/CAD pair not the whole index. Options worked great for this.
I had call options on USX not the company. It's Options on the US Dollar (USX) on the TMX exchange in Montreal Canada. To gain exposure to a rising dollar, or to hedge existing positions, call options on USX can be an effective tool. If DXY is going down like 2020-2021 it's great for stocks and equities. A falling dollar is also beneficial from the perspective of US national debt, as it makes interest payments cheaper in relative terms. Also many people outside the US have USD debts so example they make CAD but their debts are in USD. Well now their company is worth more as debt went down and revenue up. Otherwise known as currency risk. Very important for companies dealing in multiple currencies regardless of the type of business they do.
The US has incentive for a weaker dollar as the interest payments on their debt are now around $1 Trillion a year.
This yellow line represents a significant long-term resistance level. As long as the price fails to break and hold above this zone, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
The MACD is currently moving down, supporting a bearish bias. However, there are two key bullish signals I am watching that would challenge this view:
The Bullish Crossover: This occurs if the blue MACD line crosses above the orange signal line.
On the daily timeframe, a simple crossover can sometimes be a temporary fake-out (like
the "flip-flopping" seen around April 3rd-9th). While it's a warning, it's not always a
definitive trend changer on its own.
The Bullish Divergence: This is the more powerful signal. If the price has set a new low since
April 2025 but the MACD has formed a higher low, it creates a bullish divergence. A
confirmation of this pattern could signal the end of the long-term downtrend and mark a
serious change in market conditions.
A bullish crossover happening at the same time as a confirmed bullish divergence would be a very strong combination, making a short position on the DXY extremely risky.
**Disclaimer:**
*The information provided in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, market, or trading strategy does not guarantee future results. I am not a financial advisor. Please conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. You are solely responsible for any investment decisions you make.*
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.36
1st Support: 97.98
1st Resistance: 99.23
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDX-NEUTRAL BUY strategy Daily chart Reg.ChannelThe index is still under pressure, but am slightly cautious on SELL as we are near support 98.40 area, and as long it holds we should expect some recovery. Channel wise we have room further down.
Strategy BUY 98.60 - 98.75 and take profit near 99.75 for now. However, break below mentioned support opens 96.50 and lower.