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JAPANESE YEN / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

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JPYAUD trade ideas

AUDJPY Market Forecast – Level 3 Completion & Potential ResetThis chart illustrates a classic Market Maker 3-Level Rise Pattern: Level 1: Initiated after a consolidation phase, marked by a clear shift in structure. Level 2: Continued bullish expansion with stronger impulsive candles. Level 3: Price reaches an overextended zone with signs of slowing momentum, indicating a potential distribution or retracement phase. Key Forecast: A retracement is expected toward the 93.297 zone, which aligns with: Possible reaccumulating point before continuation This move may serve as a manipulation trap to grab liquidity below recent lows before pushing higher. If price reacts strongly at 93.297 with bullish structure, a long setup targeting new highs (~94.40+) is favored.
Long
by Bunnex_Investment_Group
2
AUDJPY – Buy the Dip Within Bullish TrendTrade Idea Type: Buy Limit Entry: 93.70 Target: 94.70 Stop Loss: 93.20 Duration: Intraday Expires: 10/06/2025 07:00 Technical Overview The broader trend remains bullish, and there is no clear sign the uptrend is ending. A temporary correction is expected, offering an opportunity to enter near key support at 93.70. Short-term RSI has turned positive, suggesting momentum may soon favor bulls again. A breakout above 94.25 would confirm bullish momentum, aligning with a measured move target of 94.75. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by Signal_Centre1
Lingrid | AUDJPY possible WEEKLY High BreakoutThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea . FX:AUDJPY is holding above its upward trendline after rebounding off support near 93.34, forming a higher low structure. The pair is consolidating just below the resistance zone, suggesting a potential continuation toward the 94.15 target. A break above the recent local high could reignite bullish momentum. 📈 Key Levels Buy zone: 93.34–93.45 Buy trigger: breakout above 93.80 Target: 94.15 Sell trigger: breakdown below 93.30 💡 Risks Rejection from 93.80 weakens the upward setup Drop below trendline support may signal a shift to downside False breakout above 94.00 could trap early buyers Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
10
AUDJPY pull back to FVG then LongAUDJPY Long Setup (Preliminary Plan) Target Levels: First Target: 94.300 Second Target: 94.800 Strategy: Looking for bullish price action (PA) confirmation around the highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG). Expecting a possible breach of minor resistance on open, which may lead to a push toward the first target at 94.300. A pullback may follow after the first target is hit. Notes: This setup is preliminary and subject to adjustment. Live price action will be monitored before executing the trade.
Long
by SKA_CAPITAL
AUDJPYAUD/JPY 10-Year Bond Yield, Interest Rate Differential, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, and Carry Trade Advantage (June 2025) Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) explains potential currency movements between the Australian dollar (AUD) and Japanese yen (JPY) by linking the difference in their interest rates to expected changes in their exchange rate. How UIP Works for AUD/JPY UIP theory states that the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries equals the expected percentage change in the exchange rate between their currencies over the same period. If Australia’s interest rates are higher than Japan’s, UIP predicts that the AUD will depreciate against the JPY by approximately the interest rate differential to offset the higher returns investors earn from Australian assets. Conversely, if Japan’s rates were higher, the JPY would be expected to depreciate against the AUD by the same logic. Intuition Behind UIP Investors seeking higher yields may borrow in the low-interest-rate currency (JPY) and invest in the high-interest-rate currency (AUD). However, the expected depreciation of the AUD against the JPY (equal to the interest rate gap) eliminates the possibility of riskless arbitrage profits, as exchange rate losses offset interest gains. Thus, the currency with the higher interest rate tends to depreciate, balancing returns across countries. Real-World Considerations UIP often does not hold perfectly in practice due to market imperfections, risk premiums, monetary policy differences, and investor behavior. For example, the Japanese yen is a popular funding currency in carry trades because of its low rates, and empirical studies show UIP deviations in the AUD/JPY market. These deviations allow investors to earn excess returns by exploiting interest rate differentials, but they carry exchange rate risk. 1. Current 10-Year Bond Yields Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: Around 4.3% to 4.5% as of early June 2025, with recent quotes near 4.34% to 4.48%. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate to 3.85%, but bond yields remain elevated due to inflation expectations and global factors. Japan 10-Year Bond Yield: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield remains very low, typically near 0.3% to 0.5%, reflecting the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy and yield curve control targeting around 0% for 10-year bonds. This yield has been stable due to persistent low inflation and accommodative policy. 2. Interest Rate Differential The 10-year bond yield differential (Australia minus Japan) is approximately: 4.4%−0.4%=4.0% This means Australian 10-year bonds yield roughly 4 percentage points more than Japanese 10-year bonds. 3. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP theory suggests the expected change in the exchange rate equals the interest rate differential:E =iAUD−iJPY≈4.0%E =i AUD −i JPY ≈4.0% This implies the AUD should depreciate by about 4% annually against the JPY to offset the higher yield on Australian bonds. In practice, however, UIP often fails in the short to medium term due to risk premiums, capital flows, and market sentiment. 4. Carry Trade Advantage The large positive yield differential creates a strong carry trade incentive: investors borrow in low-yielding JPY and invest in higher-yielding AUD assets to capture the interest rate spread. Benefits: Potentially attractive returns from the ~4% yield gap AUD’s higher yields and commodity exposure can amplify gains in risk-on environments Risks: Currency risk if AUD weakens sharply versus JPY Global risk-off events can trigger rapid unwinds of carry trades, causing AUD depreciation Summary Table Metric Australia (AUD) Japan (JPY) Differential (AUD - JPY) 10-Year Government Bond Yield ~4.3% - 4.5% ~0.3% - 0.5% ~4.0% Policy Rate 3.85% (RBA) -0.1% to 0% (BoJ) ~3.85% UIP Expected AUD Depreciation — — ~4.0% per annum Carry Trade Advantage High yield, attractive Low yield, funding currency Strong carry trade incentive Conclusion The AUD/JPY pair is strongly influenced by the large interest rate differential, with Australian 10-year bonds offering about 4% higher yields than Japanese bonds. This differential encourages carry trades where investors borrow in low-yielding JPY to invest in higher-yielding AUD assets. According to uncovered interest rate parity, this yield gap should be offset by an expected AUD depreciation against JPY, but in reality, carry trades and risk sentiment often drive deviations from UIP. #AUDJPY
by Shavyfxhub
AUDJPY Wave Analysis – 6 June 2025 - AUDJPY broke resistance area - Likely to rise to resistance level 95.30 AUDJPY currency pair recently broke the resistance area between the resistance level 93.75 (top of the previous B-wave from the end of May) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse A from last month. The breakout of this resistance area should accelerate the active short-term correction B. AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 95.30 (which stopped the previous waves 4 and (A)).
Long
by FxProGlobal
AUDJPY Begins Elliot Correction After Wave 5 Impulse EndsOANDA:AUDJPY seems to have started a Elliot Correction Wave after the Impulsive Elliot Wave came to a finish once Wave 5 ended this morning @ 93.774. Now after an Impulsive Wave ends, its theory that a Correction comes next and with Price having Retraced to the Golden Ratio creating a Lower High, this is the beginning signs of that theory in the works! The Sequence will be confirmed once Price Breaks below Point A @ 93.248 where then we should suspect Price to find itself back down into the 92 range where the Correction Wave should come to an end. RSI is trading back below 50 confirming Price has room to move lower strengthening the Bearish Bias.
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci