EUR/JPY BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the EUR/JPY pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 168.581 level.
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JPYEUR trade ideas
EUR/JPY Setup: Retail is 82% Short – Squeeze First, Drop After?🔹 Technical Context
Price reacted with a strong bullish wick in the 169.50–170.30 demand zone, signaling clear buyer defense. The RSI bounced from weakness but remains subdued, showing limited momentum.
📍 Current price action suggests a potential retest of the 172.50–173.30 area, which aligns with a supply zone, before a possible directional decision is made.
🗓️ Seasonality
Historically, August tends to be bearish for EUR/JPY:
5Y average: -0.48%
10Y average: -0.12%
15Y/20Y averages: -1.3% and -1.2%
📉 Seasonality indicates potential weakness, especially in the second half of the month.
🪙 COT Report (EURO & YEN) – July 22
EURO: Strong long accumulation by non-commercials (+6,284) and commercials (+17,575)
JPY: Net decline in both longs (-1,033) and shorts (-4,096), with a drop in total open interest
🧠 The market is heavily positioned on the Euro, while Yen positioning is fading. This creates a divergence between the two currencies, favoring a short-term technical bounce on EUR/JPY, though downside risks remain in the mid-term.
📉 Sentiment
82% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY
Volume: 1,564 lots short vs 352 lots long
📣 This extreme sentiment imbalance suggests a potential short-term squeeze against retail traders.
📊 Market Mood & DPO
Overall mood: Neutral
DPO at -9.0, Wyckoff score below 50
Momentum remains weak, but not showing a clear divergence.
🧩 Operational Summary
Retest of the 172.50–173.30 supply zone
Likely exhaustion in that area
Ideal setup: rejection + bearish confirmation
→ Targets: 170.30, then 169.00
EURJPY Poised to test the top after the BOJ Rate DecisionEURJPY Poised to test the top after the BOJ Rate Decision
EURJPY broke out of a descending type of channel pattern or something similar.
The last two candles confirmed the bullish movement in a clear way and the odds are that EURJPY may rise further during the coming hours.
However this movement is also supported by BOJ Interst Rate decision.
BOJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% as expected and they didn't change anything at all in their comments.
News - reported by forexlive
The Japanese Yen weakened across the board throughout BoJ Governor Ueda press conference. He sounded like someone who's not in a rush to hike rates at all. The two key lines were "monetary tightening effectively works on demand-driven inflation, but current inflation is largely supply-driven" and "current FX rate not diverging far from our assumptions".
He's basically saying that the current inflation is likely to be a one-off event and we all know how much weight they place on sustained inflation to durably hit their 2% target. And the comment about FX suggests that the depreciation in the JPY does not concern them at all, which gives the market the green light for further depreciation (all else being equal).
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURJPY: Short Trade Explained
EURJPY
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURJPY
Entry - 171.66
Sl - 172.11
Tp - 170.81
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Symmetry Bearish Setup Targeting PCZ Liquidity Zone 1HELLO awesome traders, I hope y'all have had a great weekend!! What a beginning of trading week, ha? lets crack on by droping some chart here for yall.
After completing a clean ABC symmetry leg, EURJPY is now showing signs of exhaustion just below 173.250, with price stalling at the high-volume node. The projected Potential Completion Zone (PCZ) aligns at 169.997 (78.6%) and 169.113 (100%), backed by volume profile voids and confluence from prior structure.
This symmetrical move offers a classic liquidity sweep play, with target zones sitting below price in thin auction areas.
📌 Pattern Structure:
A: 165.204
B: 161.071
C: 173.246
D Target = 1:1 Symmetry → PCZ = 169.997–169.113
🔻 Bearish Trigger:
Break below 23.6% retracement (172.271) = early momentum shift
Liquidity likely rests between 170.00–169.00
🎯 Targets:
T1: 169.997
T2: 169.113 (let's do T1, Them will see)
🧠 Context:
JPY strength resurfaces amid macro uncertainty. Volume profile suggests fast price drop once liquidity is triggered below 171.00. Watching for confirmation candle or rejection below 172.20 zone.
“Symmetry leads the setup, but liquidity confirms the move.”
EURJPY Bullish Setup : EURJPY Forecast + Demand Zone🧠 Introduction: What's Happening on the Chart?
Today’s analysis on EURJPY is built on the MMC trading framework, which emphasizes the identification of institutional supply and demand zones, reaction points, QFL patterns, and volume bursts to map out high-probability trading paths.
We are currently observing a market in a corrective phase following a significant bearish drop. However, the presence of a major demand zone, along with a positive bullish pattern, suggests potential upside reversal or at least a short-term retracement.
🔍 Technical Breakdown – Zone by Zone
🔻 1. The Drop from 2x Supply Zone
EURJPY experienced a significant decline from the 173.60–174.00 area, which acted as a 2x confirmed supply zone.
Sellers took control with strong bearish candles that broke through previous minor support levels.
This drop was impulsive, showing momentum-driven selling, often linked with institutional activity.
🟩 2. Demand Reaction at Major Zone
Price entered a key demand zone marked in green (170.80–171.00), where historically buyers have stepped in.
A "Volume Burst" is visible here—large volume candles with long wicks to the downside, which typically indicate accumulation.
A positive pattern (possibly engulfing or a pin bar structure) has formed, signaling a potential bullish reversal or relief rally.
🧱 3. QFL Structure (Quantum Flat Line)
The chart highlights a QFL base, where the price consolidates after an initial drop, then continues lower before a sharp bounce.
QFL is often used to identify trap zones where retail traders are shaken out, and smart money enters.
The recent bounce from the QFL base suggests smart money might be accumulating for a reversal move.
📐 Key Levels and Zones
Type Zone/Level Role
🔵 Volume Burst Area ~170.80–171.00 Aggressive buyer entry; accumulation zone
🟢 Major Demand 170.80–171.20 Key structural low supporting bullish bias
🟠 SR Flip Zone 171.80–172.00 Crucial breakout/retest level
🔴 Minor Resistance 172.60–173.00 Short-term pullback zone
🟥 2x Supply 173.60–174.00 Strong reversal point; ideal target
🔁 Scenarios to Watch
📈 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout and Rally (Blue Box 1)
If price breaks above 172.00, we expect:
A potential retest (bullish confirmation).
Continuation toward minor resistance at 173.00, and possibly the 2x supply zone at 174.00.
This aligns with the positive pattern formed at the base and the idea of a market rotation from bearish to bullish structure.
📉 Scenario 2: Rejection and Retest of Lows (Blue Box 2)
If the price fails to sustain above 172.00, sellers may step in:
Price could revisit the major demand zone again or even break down to 170.50.
This would invalidate the bullish setup in the short term and imply a larger continuation of the bearish trend.
🧠 Strategic Insights (MMC-Based Thinking)
The MMC approach teaches us to mirror the market’s emotion and behavior.
In this case, we see signs of:
Panic selling → smart money accumulation.
Institutional traps (QFL drop) → bullish absorption.
Traders applying MMC would anticipate reactive setups at the SR Flip Zone to determine next directional bias.
💡 Trade Ideas (For Educational Purposes Only)
Strategy Entry SL TP1 TP2
Aggressive Long 171.30–171.50 170.70 172.50 173.50
Breakout Retest Long 172.10 (after breakout) 171.50 173.00 174.00
Sell on Rejection 172.00 (bearish confirmation) 172.60 171.00 170.40
📌 Conclusion & Final Thoughts
EURJPY is showing a potential bullish reversal setup from a well-defined demand zone, supported by volume bursts and positive price action patterns. However, the SR Zone at 172.00 remains the key pivot—how the price reacts here will determine whether we see a deeper pullback or a continuation to test upper resistance levels.
Stay flexible and responsive. Let the market give confirmation before execution. As always, follow proper risk management and trade the reaction, not the prediction.
EURJPY Wave Analysis – 30 July 2025
- EURJPY reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely fall to support level 169.60
EURJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 174.00, the upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from February.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern, Bearish Engulfing.
EURJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next round support level 169.60 (former resistance from the end of June).
EURJPY: Overextended move to meet daily resistanceThe current market context on EURJPY shows an overextended move that has been pushing higher as price is about to reach a well-established daily resistance. The rally into this resistance lacks healthy retracements, and momentum is likely unsustainable without a deeper correction. The probability of a pause or reversal here under this circumstances increases substantially.
This extension exaggerates this imbalance making it a high probability setup. Volume and price action near this level becomes critical in this case. Signs such as long upper wicks, bearish engulfing patterns will hint that the move may be running out of steam.
I would be targeting a decent pullback towards 170.700.
Just sharing my thoughts for the charts, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EUR/JPY Again Below My Res , Short Setup Valid To Get 150 Pips !Here is my opinion on EUR/JPY On 2H T.F , We have a fake breakout and Gap and the price back again below my res area and closed with 4H Candle below it , so i have a confirmation and i`m waiting the price to go back to retest this strong res and give me any bearish price action and then we can enter a sell trade and targeting 100 : 150 pips . if we have a daily closure above my res then this analysis will not be valid anymore .
SELL EURJPY for bullish trend reversal SELL EURJPY for bullish trend reversal
STOP LOSS : 172.80
Trade trade is based on false breakout and divergence.....
First what is false breakout, A false breakout in Forex occurs when the price breaks through a key level (like support or resistance) but quickly reverses and returns to its original range, often trapping traders who were expecting a continuation of the breakout. It's essentially a false signal, indicating a potential trend reversal or continuation, but the price doesn't follow through....
Secondly what is divergence ,In forex trading, divergence occurs when the price of a currency pair moves in one direction, while a technical indicator (like an oscillator) moves in the opposite direction. This mismatch can signal a potential trend reversal or weakening trend. There are two main types: bullish and bearish divergence.
On this trade we are taking it because we saw regular bearish divergence
Regular Bearish Divergence
In case of Regular Bearish Divergence:
* The Indicator shows Lower Highs
* Actual Market Price shows Higher Highs
We can see a strong divergence on the RSI already and There is a strong trend reversal on the daily time frame chart.....
The daily time frame is showing strength of trend reversal from this level resistance so we are looking for the trend reversal and correction push from here .....
demand zone spottedEUR/JPY – Bullish Rejection from Demand Zone | 4H Smart Money Setup
Pair: EUR/JPY
Timeframe: 4H (4-Hour)
Bias: Bullish
Status: Trade Active
Strategy: Demand Zone Rejection / Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Market Context
EUR/JPY has been in a broader uptrend with higher highs and higher lows throughout July. Recently, the market retraced and tapped into a clearly defined demand zone, showing bullish rejection—a potential opportunity for long entries.
Key Technical Highlights
• Demand Zone marked around 170.65 – 171.30
o Formed by previous accumulation before the last strong impulsive bullish leg.
o This zone acts as institutional support, where large buy orders may reside.
o Price wicked into the zone and printed a bullish candle, suggesting buyer interest.
• Risk-Reward Structure
o Entry: ~171.33 (current price action after bounce)
o Stop Loss: Below demand zone (~170.66)
o Take Profit: 173.38 (previous high / clean traffic zone)
• The position is marked on chart with a clear long setup:
o Green zone = Target
o Red zone = Risk
o Trade offers a favorable Risk:Reward > 2:1
Scenarios
Bullish Continuation
• Price continues upward respecting demand zone.
• Confirmation from bullish price action or break of lower highs (structure shift).
• Clean targets above at 173.00 – 173.40.
•
Bearish Invalidity
• Price closes below 170.65 on a 4H candle.
• Break of demand invalidates the setup.
• Next potential support lies lower near 169.80.
Trade Plan Summary
Component Value
Entry 171.33
Stop Loss 170.66
Take Profit 173.38
R:R Ratio ~2.5:1
Status Active, Waiting for Follow-through
Conclusion
EUR/JPY is showing a clean rejection from a strong 4H demand zone after a healthy pullback. Structure still supports a bullish continuation, and the trade is positioned with tight risk and strong upside potential. Monitoring for confirmation via momentum and market structure.
EURJPY POSSIBLE EXPECTED MOVEIn this analysis we're focusing on 1H time frame. Today I'm looking for a potential buy move from my marked key levels. This is a higher time frame analysis. Let's analyze more deeply into smaller timeframe and potential outcomes. Confirmation is very important.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
This is my analysis.
#EURJPY 1H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
EURJPY Bearish! Short EURJPY
We see a verg bearish weekly BAT!
Long‑term short opportunity on EUR/JPY
Weekly: bearish bat pattern formed
Price fell below daily and 4H lows, breaking support floor
If you missed the 173–174 entry zone, there’s still a short setup today
Entry: 171.9–172.1
Stop loss: above 172.4
Intraday targets:
Target #1: 171.5
Target #2: 170.5
Target #3: 169.9 and below
Medium‑to‑long‑term targets:
Target #1: 166.5
Target #2: 161.7
#institutional order flow #trading
EURJPY – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W31 | D29 | Y25📊 EURJPY – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W31 | D29 | Y25
Daily Forecast 🔍📅
Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈
Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭.
It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias.
This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us.
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
OANDA:EURJPY