Oil ShortOil seems to have begun to have found acceptance back into range marked out. Appears to be using yearly open as resistance. Entered short here targeting 45, invalidation above range highs
LCRUDE trade ideas
OIL Possible BUYThe market is currently testing the current Weekly area. Based on Daily TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal chart pattern.
We could see Buyers coming in strong should the current level hold.
Disclaimer:
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30-mins Crude Oil: Sellers Remain in Control
Oil remains in a strong downtrend, confirmed by the Death Cross, a classic sell signal. This pattern occurs when a short-term moving average (MA) crosses below a long-term MA, signaling accelerating bearish momentum. Earlier this week, buying activity led to a minor pullback, but it failed to sustain recovery. Prices hit resistance at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level and resumed their decline. A triple bottom chart pattern is forming, often a precursor to further downside. For improved risk-reward, short sellers could wait for a retest of $68.90, aligning with the 23% Fibonacci level, before targeting potential drops below $67.90.
4-hr Oil: Oil Buyers Driving The Price Higher Oil prices have climbed by over $3 per barrel since last week, driven by renewed buyer interest following a period of oversold conditions. This rally reflects a growing confidence among market participants as the asset regains upward momentum. Adding to the bullish sentiment is the imminent formation of a Golden Cross—a widely recognized technical buy signal—where the 20-day moving average is on the verge of crossing above the 60-day moving average. This pattern suggests that there could be significant additional upside potential for crude oil in the near term.
However, before this upward trajectory solidifies, the market may experience a short-term correction. A potential retracement could see prices testing the $68.20 level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move. This level is a key area of technical support and could offer a strategic entry point for buyers. By waiting for a dip to this level, traders could achieve a more favorable risk-to-reward ratio, positioning themselves for gains as the market resumes its ascent.
30-mins: Oil Broke below Support Over the past couple of weeks, investors have been actively shorting oil, shifting their capital towards Bitcoin and leading tech stocks from the US100 (Nasdaq 100). This capital reallocation has put significant downward pressure on oil prices, which initially found temporary support around the $68 mark. However, this support level failed to hold, triggering a sharp and rapid decline as bearish momentum accelerated.
A notable technical signal has emerged in the form of a "Death Cross," where the 20-period moving average (MA) crossed below the 60-period MA. This crossover is a strong bearish indicator, suggesting that the current downtrend may persist, with sellers firmly in control. Currently, immediate resistance is found at the $67.20 level, corresponding to the 23% Fibonacci retracement, but the downward bias remains strong.
Despite this, the lower price levels might attract short-term buyers looking for value opportunities. However, a more conservative selling point for traders eyeing the ongoing downward momentum would be at the $67.88 level, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This level offers a better risk-reward entry for short sellers, allowing them to participate in the trend while managing potential pullbacks.
LCRUDE: Marco Rubio and the New Oil SanctionsPresident-elect Donald Trump's nomination of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State anticipates a tougher foreign policy toward Iran and Venezuela, with potentially significant impacts on the global oil market. Rubio, known for his tough stance on international policy issues, could strengthen existing sanctions, seeking to limit crude oil exports from these countries. However, the risks of retaliation by China and the impact on the international financial system could moderate these initiatives.
Iran: A More Restrictive Approach
During Trump's first term, sanctions drove Iranian oil exports to historic lows. Under Biden, these have increased due to laxer enforcement and growing demand from China, the main buyer of Iranian crude. Rubio could intensify pressure on Iranian exports, especially those destined for the Chinese market, using tools such as the SHIP Act of 2024, which penalizes ports and refineries that process Iranian oil in violation of U.S. sanctions.
Venezuela: Continued Confrontation
Rubio's arrival at the State Department also indicates little chance of improving U.S.-Venezuela relations. His critical stance toward President Nicolás Maduro reinforces the likelihood of maintaining and even tightening sanctions against the Venezuelan oil sector. This approach aligns with a confrontational policy aimed at limiting the South American country's economic options.
Geopolitical Challenges: The Role of China
A tightening of sanctions could generate tensions with China, which has increased its dependence on Iranian crude. As a major buyer, China could respond by reducing the use of the dollar in oil transactions, weakening its global primacy and complicating U.S. foreign policy objectives.
LCRUDE Technical Analysis
The value of crude oil reached several downward ceilings, the first in March 2017, the second in June 2022, the third in September 2023, and the last April 2024. From that point on the trend on crude has been downward regardless. Focusing the chart on the last period from September to this part, crude oil has had several attempts without much strength to return to the Checkpoint value around $78.00 in October. The crossover of averages indicates a bearish continuation with the 50-average below the 100 and 200. So this only presents a confirmation to the shoulder head shoulder we have before us and could generate the price to test the minimum resistance at $64.72, and if the market does not support a price recovery the price of oil could continue to depreciate irretrievably. The strategy of lowering crude oil prices in general seems more of a political move than a healthy market correction. The volume average appears to be slightly below 126k. The RSI is oversold at 41.46% so this could be a further confirmation of the bearish continuation. Looking at the chart the resistance zone tested for the third time today is at $66.77 if the low is reached as we say, we could see a stronger price drop.
Final Reflection
The Trump administration, with Rubio at the helm of diplomacy, faces the challenge of balancing its strategic objectives with the economic and geopolitical risks of a more aggressive sanctions policy. This approach will set the tone for international relations in a context where the energy market and global dynamics are more interconnected than ever.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
30-mins Crude Oil: Short Term Bearish Momentum Oil is showing a strong bearish momentum on the 30-mins chart, with a Death Cross MA crossover of the 20 period MA dropping below the 60 period MA. Should the price pull back, possible resistance levels could be $71.00 (38% Fib) and $71.34 (50% Fib). If these levels hold, further drop below $70 seems plausible.
Oil Price Forecast 2024-2030: Will Oil Prices Fall in 2025?Since reaching multi-year highs in Q1 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, oil prices have gradually retreated. Slowing economic growth, with looming recession due to central banks’ aggressive interest rate hikes to tame decades-high inflation, has capped oil prices. In 2023, crude oil prices dropped by more than 10%, essentially erasing their previous gains.
As 2024 progressed, oil prices faced another year of volatility. Uncertainty over when the US Fed would initiate its rate-cutting cycle pressured oil prices and other commodities in the first nine months of this year, pushing them below $80 per barrel (bbl).
In the first week of October, oil briefly hit $80 as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, raising concerns about supply disruptions. However, the gain was just a blip, and oil tumbled back down to below $80.
So, what’s in store for oil prices for the remainder of 2024 and beyond in 2025 and 2030? Let’s dive into our oil price forecast.
2024
Brent: $72.118 to $81
WTI: $$68.672 to $80
OPEC+ output policy
Wars: Hamas-Israel, Russia-Ukraine
Global economic slowdown
The Fed’s rate cut
2025
Brent: $70 to $78
WTI: $65 to $75
Fed continues the rate-cutting cycle
OPEC+ supply returns to market
Higher output from non-OPEC countries
Demand recovery
Global economic uncertainty
2026-2030
Brent: $65 to $77 (2026 to 2028)
WTI: $60 (2026-2027)
General sentiment: neutral to bearish
Wider adoption of EV, clean energy
De-dollarization
OPEC+ role to regulate supply
Decreasing demand among developed nations
Increasing demand from emerging nations
OIL Futures Buy 30/10Price is at historically significant level, daily made higher highs and currently respecting the swing low at 66.255. Mentions in the middle east as well as election uncertainty in the US may push price higher. There is also the gap down from weekly open that is likely to be filled. Any major escalation between Iran and Israel may cause a spike up in price. If the oil supply chain is disrupted price could hit 110.00 long term.
60-Day Cycle Long Only Indicator on OilThere seems to be some predictive value when using the 60-Day Cycle Long-Only Indicator on MARKETSCOM:OIL (biased opinion). Interestingly, if you look at the signals in groups of two, it appears the second 'Buy' signal has more meaningful follow-through.
Oil's Well That Ends Well: Riding the Wave "OIL"Oil's technical picture is looking increasingly bullish. A recent bounce off a key support level has formed a compelling inverted head-and-shoulders pattern on lower timeframes. This classic reversal signal, combined with a series of higher highs in recent weeks, points to a strong uptrend in progress. According to my Elliott Wave analysis, we are currently in the impulsive phase, heading towards the 5th wave target of $75.00. This confluence of technical indicators suggests that oil is poised for further gains.
WW3 , Raising in OIL pricesI expect a significance rise in MARKETSCOM:OIL , and find NO reason for than except a start of big conflect in the middle east could lead to WW3
US30 Buy After Corrective WaveThe Dow was bearish for the most part of last week, this week promises to be bullish with strong signs of recovery, chacterized by a change of character on the 3H.
US30 Buy After Corrective WaveThe Dow was bearish for the most part of last week, this week promises to be bullish with strong signs of recovery, chacterized by a change of character on the 3H.
CRUDE OIL- I don't have a car, so it's not an issue for me.
- However, if you do own a car, be prepared for higher expenses.
Happy Tr4Ding !
OIL
Investing in Crude Oil
Copilot
Welcome back. I’m excited to share more with you. What do you want to create today?
You
Sent by you:
Hello, I remember that you asked early on if this other person other instruments that I want to invest in. Okay, I'm looking at the oil, US oil or crude oil. It's currently ranging between 69 and $70.00 and I think that is going to 200 Peppero.
Copilot
Sent by Copilot:
It’s great to hear you’re exploring new investment opportunities! Currently, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is around $70.75 per barrel1. The oil market has seen significant fluctuations, and while it’s ambitious to predict a rise to $200 per barrel, it’s important to consider various factors that could influence this.
Key factors to watch:
Global Demand and Supply: Economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and production levels from major oil-producing countries can significantly impact prices.
Technological Advancements: Improvements in extraction and production technologies can alter supply dynamics.
Regulatory Changes: Policies related to energy and environmental regulations can affect market conditions.
Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment and speculative trading can also drive price movements.
Given your interest in long-term growth, diversifying your portfolio with commodities like oil could be a strategic move. However, it’s crucial to stay informed and consider both technical and fundamental analyses when making investment decisions.
Do you have any specific strategies in mind for trading oil, or are you looking for more insights on how to approach this market?
1
macrotrends.net
2
oilprice.com
3
bing.com
4
foxbusiness.com
5
commodity.com
+4 more
You
Sent by you:
Alright, here is my analysis. Can you please give me the reasons why this could be valid? But my one reason is higher high and higher law that is an uptrend and people not sea level. There is a 0.386 something like that which is a very relative. Our shop.
Copilot
Analyzing the image: Privacy blur hides faces from Copilot
Sent by Copilot:
Your analysis highlights some key technical indicators that suggest a potential uptrend in crude oil prices. Let’s break down the reasons why your analysis could be valid:
Higher Highs and Higher Lows (HH and HL): As you mentioned, the chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is a classic sign of an uptrend. This pattern indicates that buyers are consistently pushing the price higher, and each pullback is met with stronger buying interest.
Consolidation Zone: The blue box on your chart represents a consolidation zone where the price has been ranging. This often acts as a base for the next move. If the price breaks out of this zone upwards, it could signal the continuation of the uptrend.
Fibonacci Retracement Level (0.386): The 0.386 level you mentioned likely refers to a Fibonacci retracement level. These levels are used to identify potential support and resistance areas. A bounce from this level can indicate strong support and a potential reversal point.
Support Levels: The green zone on your chart suggests a strong support area. If the price respects this support, it reinforces the bullish outlook.
Market Sentiment: If market sentiment remains positive and there are no significant negative news events, the uptrend could continue. Factors such as geopolitical stability, economic growth, and supply-demand dynamics will play a crucial role.
OIL
Investing in Crude Oil
Copilot
Welcome back. I’m excited to share more with you. What do you want to create today?
You
Sent by you:
Hello, I remember that you asked early on if this other person other instruments that I want to invest in. Okay, I'm looking at the oil, US oil or crude oil. It's currently ranging between 69 and $70.00 and I think that is going to 200 Peppero.
Copilot
Sent by Copilot:
It’s great to hear you’re exploring new investment opportunities! Currently, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is around $70.75 per barrel1. The oil market has seen significant fluctuations, and while it’s ambitious to predict a rise to $200 per barrel, it’s important to consider various factors that could influence this.
Key factors to watch:
Global Demand and Supply: Economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and production levels from major oil-producing countries can significantly impact prices.
Technological Advancements: Improvements in extraction and production technologies can alter supply dynamics.
Regulatory Changes: Policies related to energy and environmental regulations can affect market conditions.
Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment and speculative trading can also drive price movements.
Given your interest in long-term growth, diversifying your portfolio with commodities like oil could be a strategic move. However, it’s crucial to stay informed and consider both technical and fundamental analyses when making investment decisions.
Do you have any specific strategies in mind for trading oil, or are you looking for more insights on how to approach this market?
1
macrotrends.net
2
oilprice.com
3
bing.com
4
foxbusiness.com
5
commodity.com
+4 more
You
Sent by you:
Alright, here is my analysis. Can you please give me the reasons why this could be valid? But my one reason is higher high and higher law that is an uptrend and people not sea level. There is a 0.386 something like that which is a very relative. Our shop.
Copilot
Analyzing the image: Privacy blur hides faces from Copilot
Sent by Copilot:
Your analysis highlights some key technical indicators that suggest a potential uptrend in crude oil prices. Let’s break down the reasons why your analysis could be valid:
Higher Highs and Higher Lows (HH and HL): As you mentioned, the chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is a classic sign of an uptrend. This pattern indicates that buyers are consistently pushing the price higher, and each pullback is met with stronger buying interest.
Consolidation Zone: The blue box on your chart represents a consolidation zone where the price has been ranging. This often acts as a base for the next move. If the price breaks out of this zone upwards, it could signal the continuation of the uptrend.
Fibonacci Retracement Level (0.386): The 0.386 level you mentioned likely refers to a Fibonacci retracement level. These levels are used to identify potential support and resistance areas. A bounce from this level can indicate strong support and a potential reversal point.
Support Levels: The green zone on your chart suggests a strong support area. If the price respects this support, it reinforces the bullish outlook.
Market Sentiment: If market sentiment remains positive and there are no significant negative news events, the uptrend could continue. Factors such as geopolitical stability, economic growth, and supply-demand dynamics will play a crucial role.
Crude Oil IdeaFollow up on a very old OIL idea from 2021
OIL completed 5 waves up from the COVID lows until the $130 highs, now appears to be in a multi year correction.
There is bullish divergence on MACD and TSI on 1W chart indicating possible trend change.
I think this is possibly C wave up to $100 (1:1 extension) or $115 (1.618 extension).
A break above $130 would indicate the multi year correction was completed at the $64 lows, something like below:
LCrude/Brent: Impact of 20k Technology on the Offshore Industry The oil industry is undergoing a significant transformation thanks to technological advances that enable the extraction of crude oil from fields previously considered unattainable, especially those of ultra-high pressure. An outstanding milestone in this context is the Anchor project, developed by Chevron and TotalEnergies in the Gulf of Mexico, where the innovative 20k technology has been implemented. This technology is capable of handling pressures of up to 20,000 PSI, which facilitates the extraction of oil and natural gas from extremely deep, high-temperature reservoirs.
With an investment of US$5.7 billion, the Anchor project has started producing oil, representing a significant breakthrough for the Gulf of Mexico, whose production has been below its all-time high in 2019. By 2025, oil production in this region is estimated to reach 1.9 million barrels per day, making a crucial contribution to U.S. energy supply.
However, operations in high-pressure fields are inherently dangerous, as evidenced by the Macondo disaster in 2010. Nevertheless, recent technological advances have greatly improved the safety of drilling and extraction in these extreme conditions. This improved safety will not only benefit the Gulf of Mexico, but will also open up opportunities for fields in Brazil, Angola and Nigeria, further expanding global production capacity.
In the broader picture, crude oil prices are recovering, driven by geopolitical tensions and new stimulus measures in China. Despite some recent declines, Brent and WTI futures are showing signs of upward momentum, with technical levels suggesting continued growth. Three key catalysts could support this trend:
1. Geopolitical concerns: Rising tensions in the Middle East are raising supply concerns, which could drive oil prices higher.
2. Stimulus from China: The recent interest rate cut by the People's Bank of China, combined with an increase in oil product export quotas, is creating a favorable environment for crude oil prices.
3. Weather conditions: A hurricane is expected to impact production in the Gulf of Mexico and, together with low inventory levels, could support higher prices.
Brent and WTI futures are in a recovery phase. With key support levels that, if maintained, could lead to a further increase in prices, the outlook for the oil industry looks promising as they adapt to the challenges and opportunities of the global market.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
LCrude: Shell reports $6.3B on lower crude oil marginsShell reported a 19% drop in second-quarter earnings to $6.3 billion due to lower margins in refining and oil and gas marketing. Despite the decline, it beat analysts' forecasts, who had expected $6 billion. The British company also announced a $3.5 billion share buyback over the next three months and maintained its dividend at 34 cents per share. Adjusted earnings rose from $5.1 billion a year earlier, but were down from $7.7 billion in the first quarter. The decline reflected lower prices and sales volumes, as well as weaker transactions in the liquefied natural gas division due to seasonally low demand. In addition, results were affected by lower refining margins and weaker oil trading.
Looking at the chart, you can see that crude oil has seen a 30% oversold return on the RSI on the 29th, being 47.38% today. Shell's earnings news has moved crude oil to the middle zone of the long term channel where the Check Point (POC) at $78 also converges, so now it only remains to be seen if crude oil will continue to take positions with buyers and return to the $93.95 zone.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Bullish Punch on Crude OilOil prices rose slightly at the beginning of the Asian session on the surprise of excess inventories in the U.S. stockpiles. This was largely driven by the geopolitical risks of conflicts in the Middle East and the prospect of an eventual drawdown of these inventories during the third quarter, which is the time when demand increases. At the start of the European session West Texas remained +0.59% and Brent +0.52%. Natural Gas, Oil and Gasoline have also been affected by this effect.
It is possible that the market is ignoring demand concerns and anticipating the aforementioned reductions. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase of +914,000 barrels last Friday. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil, Distillates and Oils are released today at the start of the US session. The expectation on inventories is for a possible 3 million drop over last week's data.
Looking at the chart, the WT (Ticker AT: Lcrude) shows us the development of the bullish directionality since June 3rd with a return to the mean and recovering its most traded price. If we observe the bell has a mono-bell shape and the current most traded price at the control point is located at $77.92. Currently the price is around $81.05. The RSI indicator confirms that it is at 58.95% which indicates that it is slightly overbought. If we look at the possibility of a rise according to the advance, it would not be difficult that if it exceeds the level of $87.26 it will try again to look for the resistance of the range around $97.
Ion Jauregui - Analista ActivTrades
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
OIL : KEY V-BOTTOM PATTERN- The market is trading below a bearish trendline which took place at the beginning of April ; the mid-term trend is then bearish for the black gold.
- However, since the impact over $72.43, the LCrude has registered a sharp bullish price action, led by bull traders who managed to defend that zone as well as short-sellers who bought their short positions back.
The market has registered a rare V-bottom chart pattern, typically indicating a bullish reversal to come.
This scenario seems to be confirmed by the RSI indicator which already registered a bullish break-out, above its 50% level.
Meanwhile, both moving averages are also in a positive configuration following a bullish cross, the first one since the start of the mid-term bearish trend.
- Even if a clear signal from the market, given by a sharp bullish break-out of the mid-term bearish trendline is yet to come, this is seen as a bullish configuration for the market.
Indeed, the fact bull traders have now taken control of the market while US oil stockpiles have recently significantly decreased makes the possibility of bullish trend resurgence likely on a mid-term basis.
If the market manages to clear the $78.00 level, a new bullish potential towards $79.75, $81.50 and $84.00 would be unlocked.
Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
