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CRUDEOILM1! trade ideas

Chart Pattern Analysis Of CL1! There are 4 candles close upon the neckline of a potential bullish triangle pattern, It seems that another bull run will start here. I am expecting an accelerate motive wave to touch or break up the nearest higher high at about 72USD. On the other hand, If K5 couldn’t close upon K4 to verify the strong bullish momentum, It is also possible that a short-term consolidation will carry on from K3. If the following candles successfully retest the downtrend line after a successful break up, It is also a good place to buy it then. Long-65.4/Stop-64.4/Target-72
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by nothingchangehere
Will there be a big rise in oil prices? WTI crude futures rose to around $66.1 per barrel on Tuesday, continuing gains for the second consecutive session, as ongoing geopolitical tensions fuel concerns about a possible reduction in global supply. Russia and Ukraine held a second round of direct peace talks after the sharp escalation of hostilities the previous day, but the discussions failed to produce any significant progress in resolving the three-year conflict. Further intensifying supply concerns, a wildfire in Alberta, Canada, forced a temporary halt to oil and gas production. Meanwhile, OPEC+ kept its July production increase at the same level as the previous two months, easing fears of a supply surge. In addition, an Iranian diplomat said on Monday that Iran is ready to reject the US proposal to resolve the decade-long nuclear dispute, saying it does not meet Tehran's interests or change Washington's position on uranium enrichment. A fire in Alberta, Canada, caused a temporary disruption in oil and gas production, raising further concerns about supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided to keep its July production increase at the same level as in the previous two months, easing concerns about oversupply. Last week, OPEC+ decided to increase its combined production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day. The decision was made following expectations of a more significant increase that had affected energy stocks ahead of the group's latest meeting. The increase was less than expected, which had a positive impact on prices, which continue to rise. For investors in the oil sector, the worst fear is a possible repeat of a price war like the one in 2020, which led to a drastic collapse in oil prices. This scenario is unlikely, as the US cannot afford an oil price below $50. In fact, $50 represents the break-even point for the oil sector. This situation is leading the US and Saudi Arabia towards a more cautious approach, which is why the expected significant increase in oil production did not occur last week. A further positive sign for oil prices emerges from the analysis of the futures curve, which is currently in backwardation. Backwardation is a condition in which forward prices are lower than the current spot price, resulting in a downward slope of the forward curve. As the contract expiry date approaches, the differential between the spot price and the forward price tends to narrow, causing the curve to converge back towards the spot price. The conditions of the futures markets are: Normal market (contango): balanced supply and demand. Weak demand and excess supply: amplification of contango. Excess demand: reduction in contango to backwardation, where the difference between the near and far prices can theoretically increase indefinitely. The recent rises, supported by above-average volumes, indicate that only exceeding the 200-period moving average could trigger a strong long trend with a target of $70 per barrel. Recent geopolitical tensions suggest the possibility of a bullish move on oil. Iran has increased its stockpiles of enriched uranium to near weapons-grade levels in recent months, raising further doubts about the possibility of reaching an agreement with the US on Tehran's nuclear program. Sanctions and restrictions on global oil supply will favor an increase in prices. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue, with mutual attacks instead of negotiations. We expect oil prices to be around $70 in the next quarter.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Antonio_Ferlito
Crude Oil Stuck in Consolidation Watch for Breakout! Hey Traders so today was looking at oil market seems to be stuck in a very powerful pattern called the Narrow Sideways Channel. Basically market has been going no where for the last 75 days stuck between the highs and the lows moving back and forth moving sideways. Most traders have probably fallen alseep because this market is boring as watching paint dry just stuck in a range of $55-$65. I guess some traders can trade the range buy at the bottom or the channel sell near the top but imo the best way to trade is wait for a breakout of the channel. Now if you research historical sideways channels or range markets you will find that almost every market that has ever traded sideways for more than 90 days or more led to an explosive breakout at one point in time! Finally exciting news! That means the longer it consolidates the better for us traders to catch the breakout. So if we look closely at the chart we can see right out of the channel top there is resistance ahead at $68. However if market can break above $68 and close above that level at the daily close that would be a serious buy signal for more upside. But don't go by intraday go by the close of the day intraday means nothing imo. The Daily Close it all that counts! So watch for breakout above $68 then look to buy on pullback if I does not break above $68 tje we are back to watching paint dry. 😂 Always use Risk Management! (Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheIndex
#202523 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Day and I hope you are well. comment: Time to be very cautious as a bear and hopeful as a bull. 3 clear legs down and the third could not make a new low. Now the market closed at the weekly high and it’s a fitting place for a reversal. 65 should be the highest bears should allow it. If bulls get follow-through beyond, this is a buy with stop 59.5. The target above 65 is obviously 70 and maybe even the bigger bear trend line around 73. current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range key levels: 59 - 65 bull case: Bulls got their first daily close above the weekly20 ema since February. Bears tried to get the market below 60 but failed to keep it below - 3 times now since April. Markets will try one thing only so much until they try something else. 65 is the next target which will likely get hit early next week but I expect a bit more sideways until one side clearly gives up. Technically this is a double bottom April/May lows and now a higher low and bulls want to get the major trend reversal. Invalidation is below 65.5 bear case: Bears are hopeful that the bear wedge is still enough resistance that we test down to 60 but they need a strong reversal below 65 to make it happen and when a weekly bar closes at the very high, it’s probably not a good time to be a bear. Best bears can hope for here is to stay below 65 and continue inside the current range 60-65. Invalidation is above 65.5 short term: Bullish. I think a bull breakout is much more likely than hitting 60 again. Buying 64.58 with a stop 59.5 is likely a decent trade already. Confirmation for the breakout is 65.5ish. medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-08: Market finds no acceptance below 60 since 2021 and now we have 3 clear legs down, a higher low and a breakout above prior high with a weekly close at the highs and the weekly 20ema. This is likely as good of a swing long as you can get.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
1
Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil is still bearish, and we will continue to sell on rebounds. If it does not break 65.00, it will fluctuate. The general trend is bearish. If it breaks, we will adjust our thinking. Today's crude oil is the key. Will it start to take off before the data? The previous crude oil inventory data did not allow crude oil to break the position. The crude oil fluctuation range is 60.00-65.00. If it breaks this range, we will adjust our thinking on fluctuations. Operational suggestions Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NuggetsWarriors
Oil Price on Cusp of Testing May HighThe price of oil is on the cusp of testing the May high ($64.19) after closing above the 50-Day SMA ($62.04) for the first time since April, with a break/close above $64.20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the April high ($71.16) on the radar. Need a move/close above the $70.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $71.90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone to open up the February high ($73.84), but lack of momentum to push/close above $64.20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) may keep the price of oil within the April range. Failure to defend the advance from the weekly low ($61.06) may push crude back toward the $58.70 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to $60.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region, with the next area of interest coming in around the May low ($54.84). --- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by FOREXcom
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
What Is the Base Price for Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well. I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?” My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume. WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options Ticker: MCL Minimum fluctuation: 0.01 per barrel = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.sweetlogin.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by konhow
Crude Oil Futures: Navigating Geopolitical Risk and VolatilityMarket Context: NYMEX:CL1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT:ZN1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! CME:6E1! Implied volatility (IV) in the front weeks (1W and 2W) is elevated, and the futures curve is in steep backwardation. This indicates heightened short-term uncertainty tied to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East involving Iran and Israel. The forward curve, however, suggests the market is not fully pricing in sustained or escalating conflict. We evaluate three possible geopolitical scenarios and their implications for the Crude Oil Futures market: Scenario 1: Ceasefire Within 1–2 Weeks • Market Implication: Short-term geopolitical premium deflates. • Strategy: Short front-month / Long deferred-month crude oil calendar spread. o This position benefits from a reversion in front-month prices once the risk premium collapses, while deferred months—already pricing more stable conditions—remain anchored. o Risk: If the ceasefire fails to materialize within this narrow window, front-month prices could spike further, causing losses. Scenario 2: Prolonged War of Attrition (No Ceasefire, Ongoing Missile and Air War) • Market Implication: Front-end volatility may ease slightly but remain elevated; deferred contracts may begin to price in more geopolitical risk. • Strategy: Long back-month crude oil futures. o The market is currently underpricing forward-looking risk premiums. A persistent conflict, even without full-scale escalation, may eventually force the market to adjust deferred pricing upward. o Risk: Time decay and roll costs. Requires a longer holding horizon and conviction that the situation remains unresolved and volatile. Scenario 3: Full-Scale Regional War • Market Implication: Severe market dislocation, illiquidity, potential for capital flight, and broad-based risk-off sentiment across global assets. • Strategy: Avoid initiating directional exposure in crude. Focus on risk management and capital preservation. o In this tail-risk scenario, crude oil could spike sharply, but slippage, execution risk, and potential exchange halts or liquidity freezes make it unsuitable for new exposure. o Alternative Focus: Allocate to volatility strategies, defensive hedging (e.g., long Gold, long VIX futures), and cash equivalents. o Risk: Sudden market shutdowns or gaps may make exit strategies difficult to execute. Broader Portfolio Considerations Given the crude oil dynamics, there are knock-on effects across other markets: • Gold Futures: Flight-to-safety bid in Scenarios 2 and 3. Long positioning in Gold (spot or near-month futures) with defined stop-loss levels is prudent as a hedge. • Equity Index Futures (E-mini Nasdaq 100 / S&P 500): Vulnerable to risk-off flows in Scenarios 2 and 3. Consider long volatility (VIX calls or long VX futures) or equity index puts as portfolio hedges. In Scenario 1, equities could rally on resolution optimism—especially growth-heavy Nasdaq. • Currency Futures: USD likely to strengthen as a safe haven in Scenarios 2 and 3. Consider long positions in Dollar and Short 6E futures. • Bond Futures: Risk-off flows theoretically should support Treasuries in Scenarios 2 and 3. Long positions in 10Y or 30Y Treasury futures could serve as a defensive allocation. Yields may retrace sharply lower if escalation intensifies. However, given the current paradigm shift with elevated yields, higher for longer rates and long end remaining high, we would not bet too heavily on Bond futures to act as safe haven. Instead, inflows in Gold, strengthening of Chinese Yuan and Bitcoin will be key to monitor here. Scenario-based planning is essential when markets are pricing geopolitical risk in a non-linear fashion. Crude oil currently reflects a consensus expectation of de-escalation (Scenario 1), which opens the door for relative value and mean-reversion strategies in the front-end of the curve. However, given the asymmetric risks in Scenarios 2 and 3, prudent exposure management, optionality-based hedges, and a flexible risk framework are imperative. A diversified playbook; leveraging volatility structures, calendar spreads, and cross-asset hedges offers the best path to opportunity while managing downside risk.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis: Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today. Fundamental analysis: Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time. Operational suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00Crude oil market analysis: We still buy crude oil in the recent daily line, but yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big negative line. Short-term crude oil is about to start repairing. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. Crude oil follows the long-term trend. In addition, the war between Iran and Israel is a long-term support for crude oil purchases. If the situation escalates, crude oil may easily stand above the 100 mark in the later period. Consider buying crude oil at 71.00 today. Fundamental analysis: Yesterday, Iran and Israel began to bomb each other again, and the situation began to escalate. Operation suggestions: Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025🛢️ CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025 🎯 Instrument: CL (Crude Oil Futures) 📉 Strategy: Short Swing 📅 Entry Timing: Market Open 📈 Confidence: 68% 🔍 Model Insights Recap 🧠 Grok/xAI – Bearish due to overbought RSI + price stalling near MAs 🤖 Claude/Anthropic – Bearish pullback expected, despite recent strength 📊 Llama/Meta – Overextended Bollinger Band + RSI = short bias 🧬 DeepSeek – Supports downside via divergence + high volatility ⚠️ Gemini/Google – Bullish thesis based on momentum; diverges from consensus 📉 Consensus Takeaway While short-term momentum is strong, most models forecast a pullback due to: 🔼 Overbought RSI readings 📈 Price extended well above key moving averages 🧨 High volatility and profit-taking zone near $73–$74 ✅ Recommended Trade Setup Metric Value 🔀 Direction Short 🎯 Entry Price $72.65 🛑 Stop Loss $74.20 🎯 Take Profit $68.80 📏 Size 1 contract 📈 Confidence 68% ⏰ Timing Market Open ⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations 🌍 Geopolitical events or OPEC news can cause unexpected surges 📉 If bullish momentum resumes, upside breakout could invalidate short thesis 📏 Risk management is critical—stick to stop-loss if price breaks above $74.20 🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) json Copy Edit { "instrument": "CL", "direction": "short", "entry_price": 72.65, "stop_loss": 74.20, "take_profit": 68.80, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.68, "entry_timing": "market_open" } 💡 Watch price action at the open. If oil opens weak or fails to reclaim $73, this short setup has a strong edge.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantsignals
WTI(20250617)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Revised version of the Republican tax cut bill in the US Senate: It is planned to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion, and the overall framework is consistent with the House version. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 70.41 Support and resistance levels: 75.98 73.90 72.55 68.27 66.92 64.84 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 72.55, consider buying, and the first target price is 73.90 If the price breaks through 70.41, consider selling, and the first target price is 68.27
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NuggetsWarriors
WTI(20250616)Today's AnalysisMarket news: Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with all its strength on an unprecedented scale." Iran and Israel should reach an agreement. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 71.11 Support and resistance levels: 78.59 75.79 73.98 68.24 66.43 63.64 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 73.98, consider buying in, the first target price is 75.79 If the price breaks through 71.11, consider selling in, the first target price is 68.24
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude Oil - we follow up with the momenetumCrude Oil Analysis: Why Prices Could Keep Rising Amid Israel-Iran Conflict? 🛢 🛢 🛢 📈 📈 📈The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have significantly intensified geopolitical risk in the Middle East—home to a third of the world’s oil supply. As hostilities escalate, crude oil prices are poised for continued upward momentum due to three key factors: 1️⃣ Supply Disruption Fears: The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which 20% of global oil flows, could be compromised if Iran retaliates or is targeted more directly. Any disruption—even speculative—typically sends prices higher. 2️⃣ Production Uncertainty: Iran, a major OPEC member, may face new sanctions or physical damage to infrastructure. In retaliation, Iran could also target regional energy infrastructure, including in the UAE or Saudi Arabia, shrinking global supply. 3️⃣ Market Sentiment and Risk Premiums: Investors tend to price in risk quickly. With oil markets already tight due to OPEC+ cuts and tepid U.S. production growth, heightened instability adds a strong speculative premium. Bottom Line: Unless the Israel-Iran conflict de-escalates, crude oil has a strong bullish case. With limited spare capacity globally and increased geopolitical fragility, expect prices to remain elevated or climb further—especially if rhetoric turns into regional escalation. 💡 💡 📌 Trade plan ⬇️ Entry : On market open ✅Target : 79.00 ❌SL: 64.00
PYTH:WTI3!Long
by DG55Capital