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GOLDPETALU2025 trade ideas

Gold Price Analysis (GC1! or XAU/USD): Challenges and OutlookSince reaching a historic high of $3,509 on April 22, 2025, gold has struggled to maintain its upward momentum. On the daily timeframe, the price experienced a sharp rejection spike after touching that peak, prompting a sideways range as the market seeks a clearer direction. From a technical perspective, a stronger US dollar typically puts downward pressure on gold, making it a more expensive investment for holders. However, examining the chart of GC1! * alongside the DXY shows that even during periods of a robust dollar, gold has continued to rise. Additionally, recent years have seen seasonality effects on gold largely ignored, with the yellow metal persistently climbing. The underlying reasons are multifaceted, but a key factor is gold’s status as a safe-haven asset—investors prefer to hold gold during times of uncertainty and economic turmoil. * GOLD and DXY correlation Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the consensus is that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with unchanged rates. From both fundamental and technical viewpoints, recent data suggest a cautious outlook. Notably, non-commercial traders added nearly 40,000 long contracts last week, indicating bullish sentiment. Conversely, retail traders have reduced their positions, which could signal a potential shift in market dynamics. The key question remains: where might be a strategic entry point if gold resumes its upward trend? In the chart, I’ve highlighted two daily demand zones and a strong weekly demand area. There’s a possibility that the price may not revisit the weekly demand zone to accommodate new longs, instead triggering entry signals from one of the daily demand zones. I recommend adding these zones to your watchlist as potential entry points. What are your thoughts? I look forward to your insights! ✅ Please share your thoughts about GC1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
8
Gold’s on a Roller Coaster — and We’re Riding It Down🎢 Gold’s on a Roller Coaster — and We’re Riding It Down 🎢 Gold just snapped up like it saw Trump tweet “TARIFFS ARE BACK” — but the move smells like a knee-jerk algo pump, not real conviction. We just rejected right into a thin-volume imbalance zone and tagged the underside of a long-standing trendline. 📉 Short Setup Locked In: 💥 Entry: 3405 🛑 Stop: 3415 🎯 Target: 3353 💰 R:R ≈ 5:1 🔍 Why I'm In This Trade: That rip? Total headline panic, not structural strength. Low volume shelf above, with a massive POC magnet below at 3353. We tapped the Developing VAH (3414) and got rejected — classic trap setup. SQZMOM showing the energy is already fizzling. Green flash, no follow-through. 🧠 The Narrative: Gold’s trying to price in volatility from every angle — Trump talk, tariffs, macro chaos — but under the hood, this pop looks unsustainable. If this is just a liquidity grab, we could see a flush back into the meat of value fast. Grab your helmets — this roller coaster might just be heading downhill 🎢📉
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Gold Daily Bias – Bulls Have the Ball, But Watch the TrapGold Daily Chart – August Outlook Bias is still bullish for August. Price is holding well above the big 3M FVG ($2,900–$3,100). Strong bounce from Weekly Low ($3,331) heading toward Weekly High ($3,416). Above $3,416 we’ve got $3,451 (M-H) and ATH ($3,508) as liquidity targets . Seasonal tailwinds could help push us higher into Q4. Blind spots to watch: Still range-bound between $3,330–$3,450 for months — no clean break yet. Unfilled FVG near $3,210 could be a draw if we reject from resistance. August liquidity is thin — spikes can reverse fast. Triple-top risk if we reject near $3,450 again. Game plan: Bullish if we get a daily close above $3,416 (confirmation) and ideally above $3,451 to aim for ATH. If breakout fails, I’ll target range play back toward $3,290–$3,210. Bias = bullish, but I’m staying nimble.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: Gold Triangle Trap PlayGold’s Volatility Decline Meets a Classic Chart Setup Gold Futures have been steadily declining after piercing a Rising Wedge on June 20. Now, the market structure reveals the formation of a Triangle pattern nearing its apex — a point often associated with imminent breakouts. While this setup typically signals a continuation or reversal, the direction remains uncertain, and the conflict grows when juxtaposed with the longer-term bullish trajectory Gold has displayed since 2022. The resulting dilemma for traders is clear: follow the short-term bearish patterns, or respect the dominant uptrend? In situations like these, a non-directional approach may help tackle the uncertainty while defining the risk. This is where a Long Strangle options strategy becomes highly relevant.   Low Volatility Sets the Stage for an Options Play According to the CME Group’s CVOL Index, Gold’s implied volatility currently trades near the bottom of its 1-year range — hovering just above 14.32, with a 12-month high around 27.80. Historically, such low readings in implied volatility are uncommon and often precede sharp price movements. For options traders, this backdrop suggests one thing: options are potentially underpriced. Additionally, an IV analysis on the December options chain reveals even more favorable pricing conditions for longer-dated expirations. This creates a compelling opportunity to position using a strategy that benefits from volatility expansion and directional movement. Structuring the Long Strangle on Gold Futures A Long Strangle involves buying an Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Call and an OTM Put with the same expiration. The trader benefits if the underlying asset makes a sizable move in either direction before expiration — ideal for a breakout scenario from a compressing Triangle pattern. In this case, the trade setup uses: Long 3345 Put (Oct 28 expiration) Long 3440 Call (Oct 28 expiration) With Gold Futures (Futures December Expiration) currently trading near $3,392.5, this strangle places both legs approximately 45–50 points away from the current price. The total cost of the strangle is 173.73 points, which defines the maximum risk on the trade. This structure allows participation in a directional move while remaining neutral on which direction that move may be. Technical Backdrop and Support Zones The confluence of chart patterns adds weight to this setup. The initial breakdown from the Rising Wedge in June signaled weakness, and now the Triangle’s potential imminent resolution may extend that move. However, technical traders must remain alert to a false breakdown scenario — especially in trending assets like Gold. Buy Orders below current price levels show significant buying interest near 3,037.9 (UFO Support), suggesting that if price drops, it may find support and rebound sharply. This adds further justification for a Long Strangle — the market may fall quickly toward that zone or fail and reverse just as violently. Gold Futures and Micro Gold Futures Contract Specs and Margin Details Understanding the product’s specifications is crucial before engaging in any options strategy: 🔸 Gold Futures (GC) Contract Size: 100 troy ounces Tick Size: 0.10 = $10 per tick Initial Margin: ~$15,000 (varies by broker and volatility) 🔸 Micro Gold Futures (MGC) Contract Size: 10 troy ounces Tick Size: 0.10 = $1 per tick Initial Margin: ~$1,500 The options strategy discussed here is based on the standard Gold Futures (GC), but micro-sized versions could be explored by traders with lower capital exposure preferences.   The Trade Plan: Long Strangle on Gold Futures Here's how the trade comes together: Strategy: Long Strangle using Gold Futures options Direction: Non-directional Instruments: Buy 3440 Call (Oct 28) Buy 3345 Put (Oct 28) Premium Paid: $173.73 (per full-size GC contract) Max Risk: Limited to premium paid Breakeven Points on Expiration: Upper Breakeven: 3440 + 1.7373 = 3613.73 Lower Breakeven: 3345 – 1.7373 = 3171.27 Reward Potential: Unlimited above breakeven on the upside, substantial below breakeven on the downside R/R Profile: Defined risk, asymmetric potential reward This setup thrives on movement. Whether Gold rallies or plunges, the trader benefits if price breaks and sustains beyond breakeven levels by expiration. Risk Management Matters More Than Ever The strength of a Long Strangle lies in its predefined risk and unlimited reward potential, but that doesn’t mean the position is immune to pitfalls. Movement is key — and time decay (theta) begins to erode the premium paid with each passing day. Here are a few key considerations: Stop-loss is optional, as max loss is predefined. Precise entry timing increases the likelihood of capturing breakout moves before theta becomes too damaging. Same for exit. Strike selection should always balance affordability and distance to breakeven. Avoid overexposure, especially in low volatility environments that can lull traders into overtrading due to the potentially “cheap” options. Using strategies like this within a broader portfolio should always come with well-structured risk limits and position sizing protocols. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.sweetlogin.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Gold - Short Setup Off Major Trendline Rejection📉 Gold - Short Setup Off Major Trendline Rejection Gold has broken down through the rising trendline and is now retesting it — the moment of truth! 🧐 🔻 Short Entry: 3,336 🎯 Target: 3,236 (Fib 1.0 + HVN gap fill) 🛑 Stop: 3,346 (Above trendline retest) ⚖️ Risk/Reward: ~1:10 📊 Bonus: High volume node above adds resistance. Bearish volume profile structure confirms the breakdown bias. Watching for volume to pick up on the move down. Let's see if GC bleeds into August. 🩸📆
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
GC1! – The Wedge Strikes BackGC1! – The Wedge Strikes Back 🚀 Gold futures (GC1!) just gave us a textbook rollover move. As the front-month rolled, price faked a wedge breakdown, only to rip back inside the structure once rollover completed. That failed breakout speaks volumes – and now the wedge is back in control. Rollover Trap → Back Inside the Wedge Rollover volatility flushed price below the wedge, pulling in shorts… but the move didn’t stick. Buyers stepped up and snapped price back inside, turning the wedge’s lower boundary into rock-solid support once again. The Long Game 🎯 With GC1! holding the wedge: Longs off wedge support are the play Resistance: 3,380 Target: 3,446 (upper wedge boundary) Stop-loss: 3,336 (below support) Risk/Reward: 🔥 10.69 RRR Volume Profile also shows heavy accumulation in the 3,336–3,380 zone – crack through 3,380, and we could see momentum accelerate quickly. Bottom Line This isn’t just another bounce – it’s a failed breakdown on rollover. Wedge traders are back in the driver’s seat, and the setup offers a crystal-clear invalidation point with serious upside potential.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
GOLD: NEW WEEK TECHNICAL BIAS (MARKET OPEN)CONTEXT ▪︎ HTFs Bias: Bullish stance remains intact until a valid structural breach occurs. ▪︎ Monthly Context: Despite consistent upper wick rejections, price continues to close above prior monthly opens — suggesting bullish resilience. ▪︎ Weekly View: Current price action reflects a Value Compression Phase (VCP) within the premium zone of the active range, implying potential buildup for a bullish Impulse Drive. ▪︎ Daily Alignment: Daily price behavior mirrors the Weekly context, supporting a continuation thesis. Preferred Scenario: Leaning towards a Retrace Precision Entry (RPE) before the Ascend Sequence resumes. Watching: • Point A (shallow pullback) near B/C level, or • Point B (deep pullback) into the pending Rejection Zone (ARB). Invalidation Trigger: A structural breach below 3336, backed by bearish momentum and microstructure shift, targets first 3280, then levels below. Uncertainty Variable: Will price first sweep 3433.2 before retracing? Or will it retrace from market open? This remains unclear and demands a patient, reactive stance. 📌 Disclaimer: This is a strategic directional bias, not financial advice. Execute only with confirmation and proper risk management.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Olamitrades1
Gold Futures (GC1!) Long Setup – 0.5 Fib Bounce🟡 Gold Futures (GC1!) Long Setup – 0.5 Fib Bounce After nailing the long from the bottom and perfectly shorting the top, we’re stepping back in for another calculated move. 📉 Price pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, aligning perfectly with the upward trendline support and a key HVN on the Volume Profile. 📈 Entered long at 3,365 with a tight stop below 3,354 (0.3% risk), targeting the descending trendline near 3,444 for a clean 7.7R setup. 🧠 Context: Price reacted hard at resistance, but volume support and structure still lean bullish. Clear invalidation if we break trend and lose 3,350 support cluster. Let’s see if this bounce gets legs. 🚀
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
Precious Metals Pushing HigherMarkets were mixed across the board today with the precious metals leading the charge higher on the session. Gold, Silver, and Copper all traded higher again today with Copper being up near 1.5% and Gold and seeing slight gains. Copper and Silver are similar in the fact that they are more industrial metals and are affected by global manufacturing demand and overall costs more than Gold is. On July 8th, Copper saw a 13% move to the upside to a new all time high price, and Silver also made a new all time high today which brings a lot more attention to these markets. Along with that, there is still significant tariff uncertainty that has been driving Copper and Silver higher relative to Gold. The Gold market is still moving higher overall but has stalled out slightly since the new all time high from April. Outside of the metals, there are critical earnings reports coming out tomorrow looking at Google and Tesla that may add significant volatility to the equity indices for the rest of the week. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
COMEX:GC1!
by CME_Group
Gold completing a 4-month Bull Flag consolidation, 3800 next! We can see the classic bull flag consolidation pattern which has been going on ever since the stock market decided to go on a rager! Even with that going on, smart money continues to buy gold on the dips as you should too. Once Trump installs a phoney new BLS chief and moves to pressure the Fed by nominating a new governor after Kugler's departure the message will be clear: 1) the BLS and the Fed are no longer independent 2) the US dollar is going to tank 3) Gold is going to boom! Good luck and happy trading!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by CryptoTaoist
Gold Futures – Closing Longs and Flipping Short at Key Fib🔴 Gold Futures – Closing Longs and Flipping Short at Key Fib Confluence Instrument : Gold Futures – COMEX ( COMEX:GC1! ) Timeframe : 15-Minute New Position : Short Entry Zone : ~3442 Target : ~3362 Stop Loss : ~3458 Risk/Reward : Approx. 6.5+ Setup Type : Reversal from Overextension / Fib Resistance 💡 Trade Recap & Strategy Shift We’ve officially closed both our recent long entry and our larger swing long position, locking in substantial profit on this move off the 0.618 retracement. Now, we’re flipping short based on the following: Price reached the 0.146 Fib extension from the previous retracement leg, a level often overlooked but powerful when confluence lines up. Trendline resistance from the upper channel has been tagged. Momentum is showing early signs of stalling after a strong vertical push — textbook overextension. The rally into this level lacked divergence or structural buildup, increasing the chance of a snapback. 🛠️ Short Setup Details Entry: 3442 (after signs of exhaustion near Fib confluence) Target: 3362 (prior structure + 0.382 retracement) Stop Loss: 3458 (just above high / resistance zone) Risk/Reward: 6.5:1 — excellent profile for a countertrend play. 📌 Watch For A break below 3390 will be key confirmation of momentum shifting back down. Failure to hold 3442 on a retest will invalidate the short and re-open the door for a squeeze higher to 3476/3480. With trend exhaustion in sight and high confluence resistance overhead, we’re taking the opportunity to pivot short — fully aware of the volatility this region can bring.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
2
Gold Bulls Loading Up – Our Short Squeeze Trigger is Set!🚨 Gold Bulls Loading Up – Our Short Squeeze Trigger is Set! We’re flipping the script on COMEX_MINI:MGC1! After a prolonged downtrend and textbook wedge compression, our breakout long is LIVE – but not without trapping the late shorts first. 💥 Entry: $3,312.1 🛑 Stop: $3,288.4 🎯 Target: $3,458.9 🧮 Risk/Reward: 6.19 Price just bounced at the retest of the wedge apex, and volume is confirming the move. If this holds, we’re riding momentum all the way up – and letting short pressure fuel the breakout. 📈 Trendline breached. ⏳ Time compression converging. ⚠️ If you’re still short, watch your stops!
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
1
Gold Futures Long Setup – Breakout Continuation off the 0.618 FiGold Futures Long Setup – Breakout Continuation off the 0.618 Fib Instrument: Gold Futures – COMEX ( COMEX:GC1! ) Timeframe: 15-Minute Trade Type: Long – Breakout Continuation Entry Zone: 3390 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) Take Profit: 3428 (0.786 Fib) Stop Loss: 3384 Risk/Reward Ratio: 6.68 Setup: Bullish Flag on Retest 🔍 Trade Thesis This trade is part of an ongoing breakout continuation strategy we've been trading, and now we're eyeing a pullback entry as price returns to a key retracement level. Price nearly exploded through the 0.618 Fibonacci level (3390) during the prior breakout. Now it's pulling back in a textbook bullish flag formation, suggesting healthy consolidation before the next leg. The 0.618 retracement is aligning with previous intraday structure and trendline support — making this an ideal level to scale in. This is a high R:R continuation play, with targets set at the 0.786 Fib level (3428) — right before macro resistance kicks in. 🎯 Entry & Exit Strategy Entry: As price touches 3390 or forms bullish confirmation at the level. Stop Loss: 3384 – tight and below key fib/flag structure. Target: 3428 – based on 0.786 Fib extension and breakout continuation projection. 📊 Why This Works Breakout behavior: Price respected the breakout impulse and retraced cleanly into a bull flag. Fib confluence: 0.618 pullbacks are a classic entry in trending markets. R/R of 6.68: Excellent reward profile vs. limited risk.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford