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GOLDPETAL1! trade ideas

Gold Buyers Barely Holding. Sellers Licking Their Lips.The move on gold over the last two sessions has been clean, aggressive, and very telling. Price rallied hard into a well-defined supply zone between 3452 and 3460, which has acted as a sell-side magnet for the past three rotations. We got five separate stabs into that zone, all failing to close with strength above 3444, a key breakdown level from earlier structure. Every wick above that line was absorbed classic signs of exhaustion and seller control. That was our trigger. Once price failed to hold above 3440, the sellers unloaded. And they didn’t nibble they dumped. What followed was a single-leg, high-momentum liquidation straight into demand at 3386–3392, wiping out all intraday longs and resetting the board. Price tagged the PDL (3386.6) to the tick, then bounced not with strength, but with stability. No strong reversal candle, no V-bottom just a hold. What that tells us is: the market’s not ready to trend yet. It’s testing intent. Now we’re coiling between key structural levels: - Support below: 3386 (PDL), backed by previous demand zone - Resistance above: 3405–3410 (micro range breakdown) and 3440 (PDH) We also have a rising trend line support running up from the July 21 low price is currently sitting right on it. That’s your structural “last chance” for bulls. Break that with volume, and the entire bullish thesis collapses short term. My Bias Breakdown Bullish: If we get a reclaim above 3410, then I’d target a move back to 3430, with extension toward 3444 (PDH rejection area). That’s the clean rotation if bulls can generate follow-through. Bearish: If 3385 breaks on strong momentumbthat opens up 3355–3360, which was the last untested demand from the July 18–19 base. Neutral (Reactive) right now. This is a trap-heavy zone. Volume is thinning out, the trendline is being tested, and both sides are probing. You don’t want to front-run here. This isn’t trend continuation yet it’s a chop filter before the next directional leg. Key Contextual Notes 3455–3460 supply was the origin of the last two major reversals this isn’t a random level. Expect traps and stop hunts up there again if price rotates back. 3386–3392 demand has been respected across multiple sessions but it's getting tested more frequently, which means it's weakening. If it breaks clean, the unwind could accelerate. This is a two-sided market right now. It’s not breakout season, it’s reactionary playbook time. Let the levels guide the setup, not emotion. Trade Plan (for experienced hands only) - Long bias: Only on 30m close above 3410 with decent volume target 3430–3444. Stop under 3385. Risk tight; momentum must confirm. - Short bias: Rejection candle or sweep/failure at 3440–3445 OR breakdown and retest of 3385 target 3355. Invalidation on reclaim above 3410. This is where traders get chopped to pieces, in the middle of a post-liquidation coil sitting between unfinished business above and fragile demand below. Don’t be that trader. This is where you observe, wait for intent, then strike. Trading is about timing, not guessing. Let the next move come to you. We’re ready either way.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by stakkd
2
The Edge Of The Fork - The Joker In Your PocketWOW! \ \ First of all, I want to say THANK YOU for all the boosts, follows, and comments. You guys & gals give me the energy to continue this journey with you.\ \ Today, I want to show you that what we’ve learned with horizontal lines can also be applied to "Medianlines," or Forks. Listen, I don’t want you to blow your brain with all the rules. Not at the beginning of this journey, and not later on either. Don’t ask yourself: * when to use which Fork * which swing to measure * when to trade * where to set your stop * what if... bla bla bla That’s not fun — that’s stress. I don’t like stress — nobody does. So let’s just chill and have fun here. That’s my personal reason for doing all this Trading thing. I want to have fun — the money will take care of itself, just like the destination of a trail takes care of itself, as long as I keep putting one foot in front of the other. And that’s simple, right? So let’s do it exactly the same way. Just simple steps, connecting some dots, and BAM! — You’re there before you even know it §8-) \ Let’s jump to the chart:\ Today, you’ll find out why Medianlines/Forks are a cousin of the horizontal Channel — but NOT the same. Where are they different? Forks are different because they’re capable of projecting the most probable path of price. And that’s a HUGE difference. Yes, you can apply the full rule set of Forks to a horizontal Channel. But the Channel CANNOT project the most probable path of price. I hear you, I hear you: "No one and nothing can foresee the future. How is it even possible that Forks can?" \ Here’s why:\ There’s a thing called "Statistical Importance." And it means that if something happens very often in the same way, we have a higher chance of seeing the same behavior again in the future. And that’s what the inventor, Allan Andrews, discovered — and he created the rules around his findings. \ A high probability that price will move in the direction of the projected path, as long as it stays within the boundaries of the Medianlines/Fork.\ That’s the whole "magic" behind Medianlines/Forks. And the same applies to the "Behavior of Price" within and around Medianlines. That’s really all there is to it. Look at the chart and compare the Channel and the Fork: 1. Price reaches the Centerline about 80% of the time 2. HAGOPIAN → price goes farther in the opposite direction than where it came from 3. HAGOPIAN’s rule fulfilled 4. Price reaches the Centerline again 5. Price reaches the other extreme 6. Price reaches the Centerline about 80% of the time You’ll see the same behavior inside the Fork! That’s beautiful, isn’t it? §8-) And here’s a little Joker in your pocket — if you know the difference between the Channel and the Forks! Do you know what it is? Yep! You’d automatically know the direction to trade — giving you another 10% edge right out of the box — LONG TRADES ONLY. Because the Fork projects the most probable path of price to the upside, not down. That's all folks §8-) Like this lesson? With a simple boost and/or a little comment, you load my Battery so I can continue my next step on the trail with you. Thank you for spending your time with me §8-)
COMEX:GC1!Education
by Tr8dingN3rd
Gold Futures Long Setup – Breakout Continuation off the 0.618 FiGold Futures Long Setup – Breakout Continuation off the 0.618 Fib Instrument: Gold Futures – COMEX ( COMEX:GC1! ) Timeframe: 15-Minute Trade Type: Long – Breakout Continuation Entry Zone: 3390 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) Take Profit: 3428 (0.786 Fib) Stop Loss: 3384 Risk/Reward Ratio: 6.68 Setup: Bullish Flag on Retest 🔍 Trade Thesis This trade is part of an ongoing breakout continuation strategy we've been trading, and now we're eyeing a pullback entry as price returns to a key retracement level. Price nearly exploded through the 0.618 Fibonacci level (3390) during the prior breakout. Now it's pulling back in a textbook bullish flag formation, suggesting healthy consolidation before the next leg. The 0.618 retracement is aligning with previous intraday structure and trendline support — making this an ideal level to scale in. This is a high R:R continuation play, with targets set at the 0.786 Fib level (3428) — right before macro resistance kicks in. 🎯 Entry & Exit Strategy Entry: As price touches 3390 or forms bullish confirmation at the level. Stop Loss: 3384 – tight and below key fib/flag structure. Target: 3428 – based on 0.786 Fib extension and breakout continuation projection. 📊 Why This Works Breakout behavior: Price respected the breakout impulse and retraced cleanly into a bull flag. Fib confluence: 0.618 pullbacks are a classic entry in trending markets. R/R of 6.68: Excellent reward profile vs. limited risk.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
Gold Futures Update – 0.5 Fib Stop Hit, Eyes on 0.618 ConfluenceGold Futures Update – 0.5 Fib Stop Hit, Eyes on 0.618 Confluence Our initial long setup at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level has been stopped out, but the structure remains constructive. Price is now approaching a key confluence zone at $3,336 , where: The 0.618 fib retracement from the recent swing low to high aligns perfectly, The ascending trendline support (respected multiple times since May) intersects, and The oint of Control (POC) from the visible volume profile shows dominant volume transacted. This area represents a high-probability support level where bulls may attempt to defend again. We’re monitoring for reaction and potential entry signals around this level. A break below would invalidate the rising wedge structure and shift bias toward lower fib extensions.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
$GLD / $GC – Gold Poised for Breakout as Hard Assets FlexAMEX:GLD / SET:GC – Gold Poised for Breakout as Hard Assets Flex Gold is setting up for a major breakout, and the broader market is finally catching on to the hard asset trade. Whether it’s inflation ticking up or the never-ending government deficit spending, the market is starting to signal something big. 🔹 Macro Tailwinds: Inflation pressures + record deficit = a perfect storm for gold. The dollar is under pressure — metals ( AMEX:GLD , AMEX:SLV , SET:GC ) are responding. This theme isn’t going away anytime soon. 🔹 Technical Setup: AMEX:GLD and SET:GC (Gold Futures) are coiled tightly just under breakout levels. Volume is steady, and momentum is building under the surface. A move through current resistance could send this entire trade into overdrive. 🔹 My Positioning: 1️⃣ Options: Long AMEX:GLD calls with 1-month expiration — slow mover, but clean structure. 2️⃣ Futures: Trading SET:GC contracts on the breakout side. 3️⃣ Silver Exposure: Still holding partials in AMEX:SLV — it’s following gold’s lead but with more juice. Why I’m Focused Here: This is not a one-day theme — hard assets are becoming a rotation trade. If this confirms, we could see multi-week upside in precious metals. It’s rare to get clean technicals that align this well with macro.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by kunal00
GOLD | XAU/GC - Weekly Recap & Gameplan - 03/08/25📈 Market Context: Gold is currently trading within an accumulation zone as the market begins to price in a potential 0.25% rate cut by the Fed. This macro expectation is supporting the broader bullish bias in the commodities market. 🧾 Weekly Recap: • Price broke below the HTF bullish trendline — a key sign of weakness and potential structural shift. • However, a sharp drop in the DXY (US Dollar Index) provided a bullish tailwind for gold, resulting in a mid-week bounce. • This mixed action sets the stage for two potential outcomes next week. 📌 Technical Outlook & Game Plan: I’m preparing for two possible scenarios: 1️⃣ Bearish Scenario (Red Path): → Price retests the broken trendline and rejects it → Continuation to the downside → Play: Short setup 2️⃣ Bullish Scenario (Green Path): → Price reclaims the broken trendline and closes above it → Continuation higher toward next resistance → Play: Long setup 🎯 Setup Trigger: I will wait for a clear break of structure (BOS) on the 1H–4H timeframe to confirm directional bias. 📋 Trade Management: • Stoploss: Below the demand zone (for longs) or above supply (for shorts) on the 1H–4H chart • Target: → Bullish: $3,536 → Bearish: $3,305 💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More updates, setups, and educational posts coming soon — stay tuned!
COMEX:GC1!
by UA_CAPITAL
BULLISH ON GOLDLet's take a look at some key things happening with gold and why I decided to go long. The first and most convincing factor for me is the market structure shift after taking sell-side liquidity, followed by strong displacement to the upside. We also have equal highs. Additionally, there’s a 4-hour breaker, and if you look at DXY, it has broken down after running ITS buy-side liquidity. Bonds (ZBU2025) are also showing strength. Gold is still in a range market, and right now we are at the range lows. So, even if you're not bullish on gold, it doesn’t make sense to short. I also wouldn’t feel comfortable shorting because of the equal highs above. INVALIDATION IS RECENT 4HR LOW.
COMEX_MINI:MGCZ2025Long
by diegoulises281
Gold Futures Super Strong Resistance - Price Coming Back StrongGold Future has been very strongly pushing up without filling any gapes in the short side before pushing up more further. One unique line is probably the target super strong resistance. In a daily chart, probably better wait until it reaches that point to try to check for strong short entries maybe. Still arriving there it would explode up even more further to transform that line into a super strong probable support. Keep watching! (Do we actually have to believe that gold is secretly targeting $10,000) in the Yearly Chart?... Since February 2022 it just went berserk!)
COMEX:GC1!
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
Gold Range-Bound and Ripe for Mean Reversion Plays?Gold has been locked in a sideways, range-bound regime for months, largely oscillating between the 3400 and 3160 levels. This lack of clear directional trend stems from conflicting fundamental forces: on one hand, sticky inflation and resilient U.S. data have bolstered the U.S. dollar and yields, weighing on gold. On the other, global growth concerns and geopolitical tensions continue to underpin demand for the metal as a safe haven. The push and pull of these opposing themes has created an environment of indecision and choppy price action. While long-term investors may find this frustrating, range traders and mean reversion strategies are thriving. With technical boundaries so well-defined, short-term oscillations within the range are offering repeated opportunities for disciplined entry and exit. Currently, XAUUSD is trading just under the 3296 level after a recent rejection from the 3350s. The bearish structure suggests a potential leg down toward the 3160–3180 support zone. However, absent any major economic surprises or geopolitical shocks, this could merely be another deviation from the mean rather than a true breakdown. Indicators like RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are already hinting at early signs of bullish divergence. If price holds above or near 3160, the setup for another mean-reversion trade back toward the mid-range (around 3296 or higher) could unfold. In the current environment, fading extremes rather than chasing trends remains a strategy of edge, as depicted by the 14 period RSI.
COMEX:GC1!
by Jacques1000
Gold’s Compression Coil Looks Ready to DetonateMGC continues to reject the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the $3,386.5 swing high, currently trading at $3,347.3. Price has now spent multiple candles trapped under this level, unable to reclaim $3,355, with clear upper wicks and no bullish follow-through. This is classic midday NY session compression, often setting up a late-day directional move. All signs currently point to continuation lower toward $3,306.2, completing a textbook measured move. Staakd Probability Model Based on historical setups where MGC pulls back to 50% and stalls mid-NY: Scenario Probability - Continuation down to $3,306.2 68% High-probability path if $3,347 breaks - Sweep to $3,355–$3,360 before drop. 26%. Possible liquidity grab - Break and hold above $3,360 6% Invalidation of the short idea Key Levels Level - 100% Fib High $3,386.5 - Swing high - Supply Zone $3,347–$3,355 - Rejection area + equilibrium zone - Current Price $3,347.3 - Compression below fib midpoint - Target Zone $3,306.2 - Measured move / demand structure - Invalidation $3,360.0+ - Break above this invalidates the short Trade Idea (Pending Trigger) - Bias: Bearish - Entry Zone: $3,345–$3,350 - Target: $3,306.2 - Invalidation: Above $3,360 - Reward-to-Risk: 2.2R–2.5R depending on entry execution This is shaping into a high-probability continuation setup. NY session has done the heavy lifting: a weak bounce, heavy rejections, and no reclaim of structure. Unless we see a sudden reclaim of $3,355 or a spike in late NY volume, this looks ready to break and expand lower. Keep it simple. Trust the structure. Let price walk itself to the target.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by stakkd
MGC Bear Flag or Dead Cat Bounce? Tokyo’s About to DecideClean structure forming on MGC after a heavy impulse sell during NY session. We’re now consolidating below VWAP in what looks like a textbook bear flag or descending wedge. We had a sharp breakdown from the highs with no real attempt to reclaim the structure. Price is now compressing underneath the 9/21 EMAs and VWAP clear bear pressure. Volume POC from this range is sitting around 3,332.7, and price can’t even sniff it. Fibonacci 50% retrace off the sell leg aligns with POC stacked resistance. Entry marked at 3,318.4, targeting a breakdown into 3,268.4 roughly the measured move from the flag. Quant Confluence: - Under VWAP - Below 9 & 21 EMA - Fib 50% rejection - Bear flag structure - POC rejection zone If I'm Wrong: If price closes above 3,332.7 (POC) or breaks and holds above VWAP, the bear thesis weakens significantly. Flip long only on a full structure reclaim.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by stakkd
Gold loading up on buys but first, more drops!Gold is in a place where many are loading up on buys and I understand why. Gold has been taking some significant drops since pushing all time highs but check my charts and reason with me. In the large timeframes gold still has some movement down to complete the cycle before going back for all time highs again. Additionally it’s holding the $3388 resistance level (futures price) pretty strong on the 15 minute chart. It’s gonna be an interesting week for gold to say the least.
COMEX:GCZ2025Short
by TAGS_Worldview
Gold’s in the Chop Shop. Tokyo’s Got the KeysGold has entered a key decision zone ahead of Tokyo. After a controlled retracement off the 3332 swing high, price has now compressed into a high-probability confluence pocket: - 50% Fibonacci retracement (3316.3) - VWAP acting as dynamic support (~3317) - Trend line support holding from prior structure lows - Compression below 3332.1 the breakout gate If Tokyo volume engages, this could trigger a clean structural breakout into higher liquidity zones. Primary Entry: - Trigger: 15M or 1H candle close above 3332.1 - Entry Range: 3333.0 – 3334.5 on retest confirmation - Stop Loss: 3312 (below trend line + VWAP) Aggressive Entry (Mean Reversion): - Bounce off VWAP/Fib zone (3316–3317.5) with bullish reaction - Tighter SL: 3312–3314 - Lower R:R, but better pricing Target Zones: - TP1 3340 Minor resistance & round number - TP2 3365 Prior breakdown zone / supply - TP3 3390–3400 Extended Tokyo move + trend reversal territory If I'm Wrong: A breakdown below 3312 invalidates the bullish thesis. That would signal VWAP failure, trend line break, and potential reversion to 3300 or lower. Technical Confluence Checklist: - VWAP support holding - Complete - 50% Fib bounce attempt - Complete - EMAs compressing for potential crossover - Complete - Clean trend line structure intact - Complete - Low volume chop zone between 3312–3332 - Caution Tokyo often fakes the initial move. Ideal trigger confirmation comes 30–60 mins after Tokyo open, once liquidity builds. Watch for manipulation wicks around VWAP before committing. This is a classic quant compression setup, price is coiled into structure, and all major intraday tools align. If we see a clean move above 3332 with volume, the breakout could unfold fast. But lose VWAP and trend line, and the bias flips instantly. Stay reactive, not predictive. Let price prove direction.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by stakkd